NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (12/3 - 12/5)

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Sat. POD


Florida vs. Alabama
The Gators look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games as a favorite between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Florida is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Gators favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-5 1/2).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, December 5

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What bettors need to know: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh & Alabama vs. Florida
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Cincinnati Bearcats at Pittsburgh Panthers (+2, 58)

The undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats (6-5 against the spread) travel to Heinz Field to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers in a virtual Big East championship game.

The Bearcats come in with an outside shot of sliding into the National Championship Game. A stylish win over Pittsburgh could vault them over TCU and a little help from Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship later in the day would put them past Texas for an unlikely matchup with the SEC champion in Pasadena.

Pitt is looking to bounce back from last week’s 19-16 loss to West Virginia. The Panthers can still win a share of Big East title and earn their first BCS Bowl berth since 2004.

Line movement

Oddsmakers opened with the game as a Pick, although a few shops did have Pitt favored by a point. The action has gone in Cincy’s direction with the Bearcats now giving 2 points.

The total opened at 57.5 and is sitting at 58 with most books.

Rumor mill

Cincy head coach Brian Kelly is one of the many names getting tossed around as a possible replacement for Charlie Weiss at Notre Dame. Kelly is doing his best to duck and dodge questions.

“I have not had contact (with ND),” Kelly said. “Even if they were reaching out to me, I’m finishing out the season just like I have every year. We’re going to focus on Pittsburgh this week. After the Pittsburgh game, we can talk about other things.”

Healthy Pike

After missing a few games and parts of others with a left forearm injury, QB Tony Pike returned to his old form last week completing 32-46 passes for 399 yards and six TDs.

Pike, who was splitting time with Zach Collaros in the previous game, took nearly all of the snaps against the Illini and should do the same this week.

Something‘s gotta give

Pitt is allowing just 17.7 points per game and its defense hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in the last seven games. On the other hand, Cincy averages 39.4 points per game and hasn’t been held under 24 points.

Sack masters

Pittsburgh must get pressure on Pike to win Saturday’s game. The Bearcats’ pass attack is too lethal if Pike isn’t harassed. Led by defensive end Greg Romeus, Pitt’s D leads the nation with 43 sacks. An effective pass rush from the front four could make things difficult for Pike.

Control the clock

Pittsburgh will rely on a strong running game to control the tempo and keep Cincy’s offense off the field. Freshman running back Dion Lewis leads the conference with 131.5 rush yards per game. Panthers coach Dave Wannstedt hopes Lewis can get some good gains on first and second down, and lead to some 15-play scoring drives.

Trends

Pitt is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at Heinz Field. The under is 7-1 in Pitt’s last eight conference games.

The Bearcats are 6-5 ATS this year but have failed to cover in their last three victories. Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.

Weather

Temperatures are expected in the mid 30s throughout the game with a good chance of light snow. The forecast says the winds should be calm.



Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators (-5.5, 41.5)

For the second consecutive season and seventh time since its inception, the SEC Championship Game will match Florida and Alabama.

The game counters the two top-ranked teams in the country, two of the leading contenders for the Heisman Trophy and two of the most dominant defenses in college football.

Line movement

Florida opened as 4.5-point favorites. Heavy action on the Gators moved the line to -6 and it has since dropped to -5.5. The total opened at 41 and stayed there the majority of the week until recently rising to 41.5.

The over is where the biggest percentage of wagering is being placed while Alabama and the money line (+190) is a close second.

Significant injuries/suspensions

Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlap is suspended because of a recent DUI arrest. Dunlap is tied for the team lead in sacks, is second in passes broken up and was defensive MVP of last season’s BCS title game.

“This is a rather serious [distraction], obviously,” said Florida head coach Urban Meyer.

Alabama’s Mark Ingram, the SEC’s second-leading rusher, suffered a hip pointer in the regular-season finale but says he feels great and will play Saturday.

Seeking revenge

Alabama’s Nick Saban will be seeking revenge this Saturday after last season’s tough 31-20 loss to Florida.

Since he came to the SEC in 2000, 14 different teams have beaten Saban one year and had a rematch in the following season, but only one (Florida in 2000 and 2001 when Saban was at LSU) won both games back to back.

“Losing eats at [Saban],” said former assistant Lance Thompson. “He’s not gonna rest until he finds a way to win.”

Sack attack

Alabama has eight more sacks (31 to 23) than this time a year ago. The only games this season it did not register a sack were in blowout wins over North Texas and Chattanooga – games the Crimson Tide did not necessarily need to blitz.

Florida quarterbacks have been sacked 13 more times (28 to 15) in ’09 than in the 2008 regular season. Tebow was sacked just once against Alabama last year and, because of the great protection he had in the final quarter, was able to engineer two final scoring drives, leading the Gators to victory.

Part of Tebow’s protection is Xavier Nixon at left tackle. The true freshman has seen significant action in only the last five games, starting three, and will face a fierce ‘Bama blitz.

Heisman hype

Apparently healthy, Heisman candidate Ingram will look to bounce back from his last performance of 16 carries for just 30 yards against Auburn. He will confront a Gator defense allowing just 233 yards and less than a touchdown per game.

Tebow, Florida’s leading passer and rusher, has willed his team to victory after victory. He is at his best in big games and when in the spotlight.

He’s guided the Gators to 22 consecutive wins – the fourth most in SEC history.

Key matchup

After catching just 13 passes in Alabama’s first seven games, sophomore sensation Julio Jones has averaged 5.4 receptions per the last five games.

Florida’s Janoris Jenkins and Joe Haden will matchup against Jones, depending which side of the field the receiver lines up at.

Jenkins has not been the impact player he was a year ago while Haden leads the Gators in interceptions and is a Thorpe Award finalist. Jones is five inches taller than both players.

“Julio is a big, strong guy,” Haden said. “What I'm going to try to do is get my hands on him and throw off his timing.”

Trends

Since he has been at Florida, Urban Meyer’s teams have finished strong, winning 10 of 11 and going 9-2 ATS against Florida State, in SEC title games, and bowls. Alabama is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 SEC games.

Coaching in the SEC, Meyer is 11-2 straight up and 13-0 ATS against AP top-10 opponents; Saban is 9-8 straight up and 10-7 ATS against the top 10.

The under is 8-1 in Florida’s last nine SEC games and 8-2-1 in Alabama’s last 11 SEC games.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


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Eyes on the skies: Week 14 NCAA weather report
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Cincinnati Bearcats at Pittsburgh Panthers (+1.5, 58)

Tony Pike might not be throwing frozen ropes to Mardy Gilyard because his arm could be frozen. Kickoff temperature for the game that will decide the Big East champion is expected to be a frigid 36 degrees with a 40 percent chance of precipitation that includes snowfall. Heinz Field is also home of the Steelers and the natural grass playing surface can get very sloppy during inclement weather.

New Mexico State Aggies at Boise State Broncos (-47.5, 58.5)

Ever wonder if Smurf turf can freeze? Well, they’re going to find out in Boise because the temperature isn’t projected to get above 32 degrees in the city on Saturday. Kellen Moore and the Broncos run an efficiently balanced offensive attack, but the aerial assault might take a hit with the absence of star receiver Austin Pettis as well as 15 mph winds expected during the game.

Florida Atlantic at Florida International (-2, 63)

The wintry weather won’t affect the two forgotten college football teams in the state of Florida. Despite a comfortable 70 degree temperature slated for kickoff, the Owls and Panthers may have to contend with Mother Nature in the form of rain and wind. Thunderstorms litter the Miami forecast all day Saturday and a persistent wind as high as 17 mph is expected throughout the game.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, December 5

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Game of the night: Nebraska vs. Texas
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Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Texas Longhorns (-14.5, 47)

By the time kickoff rolls around for the feature game Saturday night, one half of the National Title Game will have already been decided. It’s up to the Texas Longhorns to decide the other half.

They'll have the opportunity to play either Alabama or Florida, but first they have to beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the Big 12 Championship game, which takes place at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.

Colt's last stand

Only two games remain in Colt McCoy's college career and the question on sports bettors’ minds is whether or not he can lead the Longhorns to a victory greater than two touchdowns over Nebraska.

The stats certainly say he can accomplish this feat. McCoy has thrown for 3,328 yards and 27 TDs this season. He comes into the game in good form as well, having thrown for a combined 700 yards and eight TDs in his last two games. All of that with zero interceptions.

The offensive as whole has been impressive averaging 451.1 yards per game and outscoring opponents by an average of 27.6 points. However, in their 12 games, only one contest was against a team that ranks in the Top 30 in defense yards given up. On neutral territory, they only managed 16 points against Oklahoma.

Wrecking Suh

Nebraska’s defense ranks 11th in the country and has the personnel to do what Oklahoma did. The Longhorn offensive line will have to contend with Ndamukong Suh, who is projected as the top pick in this year's NFL draft. The 300-pound senior has recorded 70 total tackles this year with seven sacks. He was also voted Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year by the coaches.

The secondary is decent as well with Larry Asante and Prince Amukamara earning All-Big 12 honors. Amukamara will most likely be put on Jordan Shipley for the entire game. However, nickel CB Eric Hagg seems to be the weak point in the secondary. He will have to come up with a big performance as Texas is fully aware of his struggles in deep coverage this year.

They're not A&M

Its no secret that the Cornhuskers have relied on their defense to win games for them this season. Case in point: a 10-3 win over Oklahoma. And on paper, it doesn't look good when the 91st ranked offense is going up against the fifth ranked defense. So one has to wonder whether or not they can put points on the board.

Many people saw holes in the Texas defense with Texas A&M scoring 39 points against them last week.. Don't expect Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini to copy the same gameplan though. Quarterback Zac Lee is not the big playmaker that Jerrod Johnson is, but he has done an excellent job of limiting mistakes (except in the Iowa State game where he threw three interceptions). The strength of their offense is in their running game, which is led by the rushing tandem of Roy Helu Jr. and Rex Burkhead.

It’s not to say that Lee won't be counted on to make big plays, but look for Nebraska to copy Oklahoma's gameplan against Texas rather than Texas A&M’s. The Huskers want to slow down and control the time of possession. An ugly game could be the only way in which Nebraska keeps this within two touchdowns.

The line

The spread opened up at 14 and now sits between 14.5 and 15. The Longhorns began the season 1-4-1 ATS, but have since gave backers something to smile about covering four times in the last six games. In their last Big 12 title game appearance in 2005, the Longhorns easily covered the 25.5 spread with a 70-3 win over Colorado.

Nebraska is 5-7 ATS this year and is 2-0 ATS as an underdog. The Huskers’ biggest margin of defeat this season was against Texas Tech, where they loss by 21 points as 10.5-point favorites.

This is the third time these two teams meet in the conference championship game. Texas won 37-27 in 1996, the inaugural season for the Big 12, while Nebraska won 22-6 in 1999. Nebraska covered in both games.

The Cornhuskers have actually fared well versus Texas covering in the last two meeting. In 2007, Nebraska easily covered the 20.5-point spread with Texas winning by just three points and in 2006, Texas won 22-20. That was good enough for the Cornhuskers to cover +5.

The total for the game opened up at 43.5 and has had big movement all the way up to 47 at some sportsbooks. Early money was put on the over despite that fact that this contest features two of the top defenses in the country. Texas is giving up only 15.4 points per game and Nebraska 11.1. The Cornhuskers are also 3-9 over/under this season.

On the opposite side of the equation we have a Texas team who is averaging 43 points a game this season. The Horns are also on a three-game over streak with those games averaging a total score of 73 points.

Weather won't play a factor with the game being played in Cowboys stadium. This will be the third college football game played in the $1.3 billion facility. BYU upset Oklahoma 14-13 in the first game, while Texas A&M loss 47-19 to Arkansas in the other.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, December 5

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Tips and Trends
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Alabama vs. Florida [CBS | 4:00 PM ET]

Alabama: Alabama is undefeated this year, and 7-4 ATS on the season. Alabama is 4-1 ATS away from home this year, with their defense being a major reason why. The Crimson Tide statistically are the 3rd best defense in the country. They are 2nd in scoring defense, allowing only 10.8 PPG. They are also top 8 in both rushing and passing defense. Alabama has held 6 opponents to single digits in points this season. RB Mark Ingram leads an offense that is more balanced now than any other time this season. Ingram has rushed for over 1,400 YDS, along with 15 TDs. QB Greg McElroy has been very efficient, with 16 TDs to only 4 INTs while completing more than 60% of his passes. WR Julio Jones leads a receiving corps that features 4 WRs with more than 20 receptions. This is the first time this season that Alabama has been an underdog.

Alabama is 9-4 ATS last 13 conference games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - RB Mark Ingram (hip) is probable.
WR Michael Bowman (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 14

Florida (-5.5, O/U 41): The stakes couldn't be any higher. The SEC Championship is on the line, as well as playing in the BCS National Championship game. This is also QB Tim Tebow's last SEC game of his storied career. While undefeated, Florida is only 6-5 ATS this year and 2-2 ATS away from home. Today's game will be the first time Florida is favored by less than a TD this season. The Gators have the best defense in the country. They are the only FBS school allowing less than 10 PPG, and also lead the country in yards allowed, with only 233 YPG. Only 1 opponent has scored 20 PTS or more against the Gators this season. Florida has rushed for nearly 2,850 YDS this season, with only 15 turnovers in 12 games. With this ball control offense and dominating defense, Florida will look to punch their ticket to the BCS National Championship game.

Florida is 4-0 ATS last 4 neutral site games as a favorite.
Under is 8-1 last 9 conference games.

Key Injuries - LB A.J. Jones (knee) is doubtful.
DE Carlos Dunlap (suspension) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (UNDER - Total of the Day)



Nebraska vs. Texas [ABC | 8:00 PM ET]

Nebraska: Nebraska enters the Big 12 Championship at 9-3 SU, including 7-5 ATS. The Cornhuskers are 3-2 ATS away from home, with only 1 opponent scoring 20 PTS or more against them. Both times Nebraska was an underdog this year, they covered the point spread. Nebraska has lost 12 consecutive games against teams ranked in the AP Top 10. Defense rules the day at Nebraska as they only allow 11 PPG, which ranks them 3rd in College Football. DT Ndamukong Suh is the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, and an upcoming top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. Nebraska has been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. This Cornhusker offense is very one dimensional, as they depend strictly on their running game. QB Zac Lee is going to have to make plays with his arm today for Nebraska to have a chance of shocking Texas tonight.

Nebraska is 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-3 last 13 games overall.

Key Injuries - LB Blake Lawrence (concussion) is out.
S Rickey Thenarse (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 10

Texas (-14.5, O/U 46.5): Texas is one step away from playing in the BCS Championship game. The Longhorns are a perfect 12-0 SU this season. However, they are only 5-6-1 ATS on the year. Texas is 3-2 ATS away from home, having scored at least 40 PTS each time. Offensively, the Longhorns average 43 PPG which leads all BCS Conferences. Only Houston and Boise St. score more points than Texas. QB Colt McCoy is the catalyst for this offense (3,325 passing YDS; 365 rushing YDS; 29 TDs with 9 INTs) and is coming off a performance that saw him become the first Longhorn ever to pass for more than 300 YDS and rush for 100 YDS in the same game. Texas is only allowing 15 PPG, including last weeks 39 PTS to Texas AM. This defense is allowing less than 265 YPG. Over their last 6 games, the Longhorns have outscored their opposition by an average of 31 PTS.

Texas is 7-2-1 ATS last 10 neutral site games.
Over is 4-0 last 4 conference games.

Key Injuries - CB Deon Beasley (concussion) is probable.
DL Calvin Howell (concussion) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side of the Day)


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