NCAAF trends and Indexes - Week 13 (11/24 - 11/28)

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, November 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know: Saturday's Primetime NCAAF games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday night's primetime games between Georgia and No. 7 Georgia Tech and Stanford and Notre Dame provide little for the regular college football fan to be excited about.

Thankfully there is this thing called sports gambling, which pretty much makes every game the Super Bowl as long as you have money on it.

Here are quick looks at both of these games for the bettor:

Georgia (6-5, 3-8 ATS) at Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS)

The spread

The spread for the game sits between -7.5 to -8 in favor of Georgia Tech. There was odd movement in the middle of the week at the Las Vegas Hilton with the line jumping as high as -9.5. But since then it has settled back down to -8.

Why Georgia will cover

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have already clinched a spot in the ACC title game and the result of this game has little impact on whether or not they play in a BCS bowl game.

At 6-5 the Bulldogs have had a disappointing season but are treating this rivalry as a game that could turn their year into a positive.

Historically the Bulldogs have dominated this series, winning seven of the last eight meetings. That one loss came last year in a 45-42 heartbreaker in Athens, with both teams coming into the game ranked.

Also in Tech's four wins against teams with winning records, they have only won by more than a touchdown once (against North Carolina).

Why Georgia Tech will cover

The Yellow Jackets have an excellent record against the spread (ATS) at 7-3. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.

Junior running back Jonathan Dwyer leads a rushing attack that is averaging 314.1 yards per game. That is an area that the Bulldogs had trouble with last year against the Yellow Jackets. Tech only completed one pass for 19 yards, but they rushed for 409 yards and 5 TDs.

The Bulldogs have had a tough time scoring points in the fourth quarter. In their last three defeats against Tennessee, Florida, and Kentucky, the Bulldogs could not put up a point in the final quarter. To make matters worse on offense, top target A.J. Green was listed as doubtful as of Friday morning and even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent with a shoulder injury.

The total

The total for the game opened at 60 and has since moved down to 58 at most sports books. Both teams are a combined 9-10-1 on the over under this season.

Why the game will go over

Last year's game saw 87 points scored and the total was listed at 49.5. Georgia Tech is averaging 36 points per game while Georgia is averaging 27.5.

Why the game will go under

Georgia has had the total set at 55 or more three times this year. Two of those games went over and the other was a push. The under is 1-3-1 on Tech totals over the past five games.

Notre Dame (6-5, 3-8 ATS) at Stanford (7-4, 7-4 ATS)

The spread

The line opened at -8 in favor of Stanford and has since seen a 2-point movement all the way up to -10. Last year's line was -5.5 in favor of Notre Dame and the Irish covered with a 28-21 victory.

Why Notre Dame will cover

Jimmy Clausen was punched by a fan late Saturday night following Notre Dame’s loss to Connecticut. Charlie Weis could be playing in his final regular season game. Frustrations could be taken out on the Cardinal and the Fighting Irish have the speed and talent to either pull off an upset or keep this game close.

Clausen has announced he’ll be declaring for the 2010 NFL draft and we could see him put in one last good performance for scouts. Statistically Clausen has had an outstanding year throwing for 3,382 yards, 23 TDs and only 4 INTs. Stanford has been vulnerable to the pass giving up 244 yards per game, which ranks 98th in the country.

Notre Dame has also been an underdog only twice this year (against USC and Pitt). They lost both games but covered the spread. None of Notre Dame’s five straight up losses were by more than a touchdown. Also it’s scientifically proven that Leprechauns would beat a tree in a fight on most days of the week

Why Stanford will cover

With three close losses and all the off-field distractions, the Irish may not have any more left in them to take on a surprising Stanford team.

QB Andrew Luck has put in an outstanding freshman year leading the team to wins over Oregon and USC. The 55-21 victory on the road versus USC was his most impressive.

Notre Dame ranks 78th in rush defense giving up 160.3 yards per game and the game could get out of reach if Stanford running back Toby Gerhart has a good start. The senior has rushed for 1,517 yards and 23 TDs this season. Ten of those TDs have come in the last three games against Cal, USC and Oregon.

The total

The over/under for the game sits between 62.5 and 63.5 at most sports books.

Why the game will go over

All signs point to offense in this game, with Notre Dame's defense ranked 80th in yards given up and Stanford ranked 81st. Stanford hit the over five times in its last six games.

Why the game will go under

Four of the last five Notre Dame games have gone under the total, with last week's game against UConn going over only because of a 23-point double overtime.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Saturday's games

Best Games

Clemson won last six games (4-1 vs spread); they're playing in ACC title game next week for first time. Tigers are 2-2 on road this year, with three of the four games decided by exactly three points. South Carolina lost its last three games by 18-17-10 points, as they struggle in November once again. SEC dogs are 2-2, ACC road favorites are 5-1 vs the spread out of conference. Four of Gamecocks' last five games stayed under the total.

Underdog is 9-2 vs spread in last 11 North Carolina-NC State games; in eight of the 11 games, the dog won SU. Tar Heels won, covered last four games, allowing 15 ppg; they're 2-3 as favorite, 0-1 on road. Wolfpack is 1-6 in last seven games, allowing 38.5 ppg in last four home games. Look at turnover ratios: UNC has +11 ratio in last six games. State is -14 in its last six. Seven of State's last eight games went over the total.

Average total in last three Missouri-Kansas games is 66.7; Jayhawks are 3-2 in last five series, but lost last six games overall after 5-0 start, amid rumors of player unrest with the coach. Kansas allowed 31+ points in five of the losses. Mizzou won three of last four games, is 3-3 as a fave this season; they outscored last two foes 45-13 in secnd half. Six of last nine Kansas games, three of last four Mizzou games went over total.

Oklahoma State needs QB Robinson to play (19-45/258 passing in last two games, without him); Cowboys won last three games- they're 3-0 on road, scoring 34.7 ppg in wins by 5-27-26 points. Oklahoma is 6-5 and lost two of last three games- they scored 13 or less points in four of the five losses, threw eight INTs in last three games. State held last six foes under 100 rushing yards. Three of Sooners' last four games went over.

Georgia Tech has ACC title game next week; they won last eight games (7-1 vs spread) scoring 42.3 ppg in last four. Jackets are 5-2 vs spread as a favorite. Georgia is 2-4 in last six games vs I-A teams, losing at home to Kentucky last week for first time in 32 years. Dawgs are 1-3 as dog this year, giving up 33 ppg in last three games vs I-A foes. SEC road dogs are 2-1 out of conference. ACC home favorites are 7-6 out of conference.

Underdog is 12-4 vs spread in last 16 BYU-Utah games, a bitter rivalry; BYU won last three games, scoring 38 ppg; they're 5-4 as favorite, 2-2 at home. Utah is 9-2, losing 31-24 at Oregon, 55-28 at TCU, so they're 0-2 vs spread as dog this year. MWC home favorites are 10-7 against spread. Seven of last ten BYU games went over the total; six of last eight Utah games stayed under. Utah allowed 17 or less points in all its wins.

Arizona State lost last five games, losing last two at home by combined total of seven points; Sun Devils are 3-3 as dog, 2-0 at home, but they turned ball over 14 times in last four games. Arizona lost last two games, giving up 351 rushing yards- its Rose Bowl hopes died in OT last week, how will they react here? Under is 7-1-1 in last nine ASU games, 3-1 in last four Arizona tilts. Pac-10 home underdogs are 9-7 vs spread.

Arkansas won last four games, scoring 48.5 ppg; they're 2-2 as dog this year, their last five games with LSU were all decided by five points or less, with Hogs winning last two years, 50-48/31-30. LSU lost to Ole Miss last week when they screwed up clock management at end of game, so they were answering questions on that all week. LSU ran ball for an average of only 92 yards/game in last three games, so O-Line struggling.

Notre Dame plays out string under apparent lame duck Weis; Irish lost last three games by total of 10 points, giving up average of 257.3 rushing yards, so Gerhart's eyes could be big for this one. ND is 2-0 as underdog this season. Stanford lost rivalry game to Cal last week, as freshman QB Luck threw goal line INT in last minute. Cardinal scored average of 41 ppg in last five games. Pac-10 home favorites are 6-4 out of conference.

USC won nine of last 10 games vs UCLA, winning last five here by an average of 25 points, but this year's USC ain't that USC. Trojans are 1-2 in last three games, and won by just 14-9 at Arizona State- they gave up an average of 265.7 rushing yards over last three games. Pac-10 home favorites are 12-11 vs spread. UCLA won last three games, scoring 33.3 ppg; they're 2-4 vs spread as dog. Over is 4-1 in last five USC games.

Rest of card

-- Virginia lost its last five games (1-3-1 vs spread); they're 0-2-1 as dog at this year. ACC home dogs are 8-5 vs spread. Virginia Tech won its last three games, allowing 22 points. Last five Tech games went under.
-- Favorite covered last five UConn-Syracuse games. Huskies won last week at Notre Dame; their last four games were decided by total of 14 points. Big East home favorites are 6-8 against the spread.
-- Wake Forest lost last five games (three by three or less pts); they are 2-4 as favorite this year. Duke lost last three games, getting outscored in second half of those games 58-3. ACC home underdogs are 8-5.
-- Kentucky won five of last six games, covered last three games as dog; they won at Georgia last week for first time since '77. Tennessee is 3-1 in last four games; all their wins are by 11+. SEC home dogs are 6-8.
-- Ole Miss won five of last six games, is 5-3 as favorite; they're 2-2 on road; they ran ball for 552 yards in last two games. Rebels have -10 ratio on turnovers last six games. Miss State allowed 73 points last 2 games.

-- TCU is trying to run up scores to impress BCS, so oddsmakers have made Frogs 44-point favorites against New Mexico team that got first win last week. Lobos covered three of their last four games.
-- East Carolina, Southern Miss both won four of last five games; ECU scored 37+ points in wins- they're 4-2 as favorite. USM scored average of 38.6 ppg in last five games. C-USA home favorites are 13-12 in '09.
-- Central Florida won four of last five games, UAB three of last four-- Knights scored 86 points in last two games. UCF is 4-1 as favorite this year. C-USA home underdogs are 9-10 against the spread.
-- Marshall became bowl eligible by beating SMU last week; Herd is 4-3 as underdog. UTEP lost last four games by total of 17 points, allowing 37 ppg; they have only five takeaways in last six games.
-- Tulane lost six of last seven games, falling 49-0 at UCF last week; they are 2-8 vs spread this year. SMU won three of last four games; they are 0-3 as an underdog this year. Mustangs' last three games went over.

-- Texas Tech is 5-2 in last seven games after crushing Oklahoma 41-13 last week; Red Raiders are 3-3 as favorite. Baylor lost six of last seven games, giving up 39 ppg in last three. Big 12 favorites are 22-20 in '09/
-- Florida has SEC title game next week; they're 2-4 vs spread in last six games, but have 11 INTs in last five. Florida State won four of last five games, scoring 33.8 ppg, but they're using backup QB. ACC underdogs are 6-5 vs spread out of conference.
-- Rice won its last two games after 0-9 start; they scored 28.7 ppg in last three games, so they're improving, but Houston scored 45.8 ppg in its last four games. Cougars are 4-3 as a favorite this season.
-- Idaho gets QB Enderle back for last home game; Vandals lost three of last four games after 6-1 start. Utah State lost three of last four games, is 5-1 vs spread as dog this year. WAC hom favorites are 11-7 vs spread.
-- Washington State lost last nine games, last three by combined score of 133-24; they're 3-2 as road dog. Washington lost this rivalry game LY- they've also lost last four games overall, allowing an average of 34.8 ppg.

-- Boston College is 1-3 on road, scoring 12.8 ppg, with only win 14-10 at struggling Virginia; they're 3-1-1 as favorite this year. Maryland lost in last minute at Florida State last week; they covered five of last seven.
-- Miami is 3-2 on road this season; 'canes won three of last four, are 1-4 vs spread in last five games as favorite. South Florida is 2-3 in last five games, with all three losses by 17+. Big East non-conf. dogs are 9-2.
-- San Jose State is favored despite being 0-9 vs I-A teams; they're 1-7 vs spread as underdog, thats how bad they've been. New Mexico State lost last five games (1-4 vs spread); they're 2-3 vs spread as road underdog.
-- UNLV already fired its coach; they split last four games, are 1-2 as a favorite. Rebels lost last three games to San Diego State by 14-8-21 pts. Aztecs lost last three games; they're 4-2 as an underdog this season,.
-- Hawai'i won last three games; they'll be bowl eligible if they can upset Navy team that'll be looking ahead to Army game next week. Navy won seven of last eight games; they're 2-3-1 vs spread as a favorite.

-- Florida Atlantic lost three of last four games; they're 0-3 vs spread as a favorite. Western Kentucky is 0-10, but did cover their last two, but the Hilltoppers allowed 47.8 ppg in last four. Sun Belt home faves are 13-11
-- Middle Tennessee won, covered its last five games; they're 3-2 on the road, 1-0 as road favorite. Blue Raiders have +8 turnover ratio in last five games. UL-Monroe is 2-3 as a dog. Sun Belt home underdogs are 4-4.
-- North Texas lost nine of last ten games; they're 2-3 as road dog, 2-7 vs spread in last nine games overall. Arkansas State lost four in row, eight of last nine games- they're 1-3 against the spread when favored in '09.
-- Troy State is 7-0 in Sun Belt, 5-2 vs spread, winning conference tilts on road by 3-9-20 points; five of their last six games went over the total. UL-Lafayette covered three of last four games; their last four games all went under the total.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, November 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Florida State at Florida [CBS | 3:30 PM ET]

Florida State: Florida St. is bowl eligible for the 28th consecutive season. They will look to end their season with a shocking victory over the Gators today. QB E.J. Manuel is filling in for starter QB Christian Ponder. Manuel has 2 TDs to 4 INTs on the season. Despite the QB change, Florida St. has the 2nd best offense in the ACC with nearly 435 YPG. Florida St. is 3-2 SU and ATS this season on the road. All 3 SU wins on the road were as underdogs. Those 3 ATS wins also signify the only Florida St. ATS all season long.

Florida State is 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 10-1 last 11 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - DT Demonte McAllister (knee) is questionable.
WR Richard Goodman (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Florida (-24.5, O/U 56): Senior Night for the Gators against their rival Florida St. Florida has won 21 consecutive games, the longest streak in the nation. QB Tim Tebow and LB Brandon Spikes will be playing their final home games today. Tebow leads an offense that runs for 230 YPG and passes for over 210 YPG. Tebow has 25 TDs this year alone. Spikes leads a defense that is giving up less than 10 PPG. Only 1 opponent has scored 20 PTS or more against Florida this year.

Florida is 20-8 ATS last 28 games as a favorite.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games following a ATS win.

Key Injuries - OL Carl Johnson (ankle) is questionable.
RB Emmanuel Moody (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 41(OVER - Total of the Day)



UCLA at USC [FSN | 10:00 PM ET]

UCLA: UCLA is 3-2 ATS on the road this season. UCLA has won 3 consecutive games SU, and 3 of their last 4 games ATS. QB Kevin Prince is healthy and playing his best football of the season. Over his last 4 games, Prince has over 1,000 YDS passing with 4 TDs and only 1 INT. The Bruins have only allowed only 1 team to score more than 27 PTS against them this year. DT Brian Pierce has 20 tackles for a loss and 7 sacks in his All American season. Pierce and his teammates will guarantee themselves a bowl berth with a victory over the Trojans tonight.

UCLA is 7-1 ATS last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or more.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games following a bye week.

Key Injuries - C Ryan Taylor (foot) is questionable.
OL Nik Abele (concussion) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (Side of the Day)

USC (-13, O/U 47.5): USC is reeling, having lost 2 of their past 3 games SU. USC is only 1-3 ATS at home this season. Overall, USC is 2-8 ATS this year, with them being the betting favorite each game. USC is struggling this year for 2 reasons. Their passing game behind QB Matt Barkley has been average at best, and their defense has been terrible of late. Over the past 5 games, the Trojans have given up an AVG of 35 PPG. Coach Carroll no doubt will look to fix this defense coming off their bye week. USC is 11-4 ATS off a bye week.

USC is 0-5 ATS last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more.
Over is 10-1 last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Key Injuries - WR Damian Williams (ankle) is questionable.
TE Anthony McCoy (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Sat. POD


Georgia at Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets look to take advantage of a Georgia team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Georgia Tech is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Yellow Jackets favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-7 1/2).