Announcement

**Udog** · 11-18-2009, 02:05 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

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Thursday, November 19

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MIAMI (4 - 5) at CAROLINA (4 - 5) - 11/19/2009, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 54-30 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, November 22

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CLEVELAND (1 - 8) at DETROIT (1 - 8) - 11/22/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (3 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 4) - 11/22/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 7) - 11/22/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 80-51 ATS (+23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 0) at BALTIMORE (5 - 4) - 11/22/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (5 - 4) at NY GIANTS (5 - 4) - 11/22/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 26-43 ATS (-21.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 5) at GREEN BAY (5 - 4) - 11/22/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (3 - 6) at MINNESOTA (8 - 1) - 11/22/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 45-70 ATS (-32.0 Units) off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (3 - 6) at DALLAS (6 - 3) - 11/22/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (9 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 8) - 11/22/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (6 - 3) at ST LOUIS (1 - 8) - 11/22/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 102-135 ATS (-46.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 37-59 ATS (-27.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 102-135 ATS (-46.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (4 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 3) - 11/22/2009, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (7 - 2) at OAKLAND (2 - 7) - 11/22/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (6 - 3) at DENVER (6 - 3) - 11/22/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 4) at CHICAGO (4 - 5) - 11/22/2009, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 132-91 ATS (+31.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 23

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TENNESSEE (3 - 6) at HOUSTON (5 - 4) - 11/23/2009, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-18-2009, 02:06 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, 11/19/2009

MIAMI at CAROLINA, 8:20 PM ET NFL
MIAMI: 0-7 ATS in non-conference games
CAROLINA: 33-12 Under off division win

Sunday, 11/22/2009

CLEVELAND at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 17-4 Under in dome games
DETROIT: 1-7 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13

BUFFALO at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 12-3 ATS Away after allowing 35+ points
JACKSONVILLE: 0-8 ATS as a home favorite

PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 28-8 Under Away off SU loss
KANSAS CITY: 5-14 ATS in home games

INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 6-2 ATS off home ATS loss/SU win
BALTIMORE: 14-5 Under vs. AFC South

ATLANTA at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 27-7 Over off road division loss
NY GIANTS: 14-5 ATS off a home game

SAN FRANCISCO at GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 4-16 ATS Away after allowing 9pts
GREEN BAY: 19-5 Over off ATS win

SEATTLE at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 6-15 ATS as an underdog
MINNESOTA: 19-34 ATS off win by 14+ points

WASHINGTON at DALLAS, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 49-72 ATS vs. division
DALLAS: 29-14 ATS in home November games

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 8-1 ATS off road game
TAMPA BAY: 5-1 Over as home underdog

ARIZONA at ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM ET
ARIZONA: 12-1 ATS if 50+ total pts were scored last game
ST LOUIS: 3-11 ATS vs. division

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
NY JETS: 21-8 Under after 2 straight home games
NEW ENGLAND: 26-10 ATS playing with same season revenge

CINCINNATI at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 5-1 ATS vs. Oakland
OAKLAND: 8-0 Under off home loss

SAN DIEGO at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 10-3 ATS off BB ATS losses
DENVER: 14-4 Over off SU loss

PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PHILADELPHIA: 7-2 Over this season
CHICAGO: 6-0 ATS off BB ATS losses

Monday, 11/23/2009

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
TENNESSEE: 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
HOUSTON: 12-3 Over vs. division

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 11-18-2009, 02:10 PM

NFL
Write-Up

Week 11 NFL games

Thursday, November 19

Dolphins (4-5) @ Panthers (4-5)-- Carolina is 4-2 since its bye, with three of wins by 7+ points, but they're 0-2 as home favorite. Dolphins are 1-3 away from home (2-2 as road dog), losing road games by 12-10-10 points. Four of Miami's five losses are by 10+ points. NFC South favorites are 9-3 vs spread in non-division games, 6-2 at home. AFC East underdogs are 3-8, 3-4 on road. Five of last six Miami games went over the total. Brown's injury is huge for Miami's Wildcat offense. Panthers ran ball for 270-182-185 yards last three weeks; they're 4-1 when they force 2+ turnovers, 0-4 when they don't. Miami turned the ball six times in its last six games.

Sunday, November 22

Browns (1-8) @ Lions (1-8)-- Cleveland star Cribbs got concussion on game's last play Monday, another nail in Mangini's coffin; Quinn was 0-7 on passes of 10+ yards. Browns scored five offensive TDs on 101 drives this year, with 43 3/outs and 25 turnovers. Detroit is no great shakes either; their only win is 19-14 over Redskins (+6) in Week 3- they're 0-1 as a fave. Under is 6-2 in last eight Cleveland games, 3-1 in last four Lion tilts. Browns' passing yardage the last five games: 22-106-81-74-74- they scored six or less points in six of their last eight games. NFC North home favorites are 1-5 vs spread in non-division games; AFC North road dogs are 4-3.

Bills (3-6) @ Jaguars (5-4)-- Buffalo fired Jauron Tuesday, then took half the day replacing him, so they're unplayable this week for sure; Bills allowed 72 points in last two games (six TDs/20 drives) after allowing total of 28 points (two TDs/40 drives) in three games before that. Four of last five Buffalo games stayed under the total; six of last eight Jaguar games went over. Jaguars won three of last four games, but they're 0-3 as favorite this year, winning at home by 20-3-3 points. Buffalo covered three of its four games as a road dog, losing away games by 1-28-24 points. AFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread; AFC East dogs are 3-8, 3-4 on road.

Steelers (6-3) @ Chiefs (2-7)-- Kansas City was unimpressive in winning at Oakland Sunday, now they've lost best WR Bowe for four weeks, they had been improving-- only once in last five games (4-1 vs spread) have they lost by more than six points. Chiefs are 0-4 at home (1-2 as home dog) losing by 11-3-6-30 points. Steelers were held without TD last week; they're 2-2 away from home, winning by 8-18 points (1-3 as road fave). Chief coach Haley is son of Dick Haley, who was Steelers' personnel director in their glory years of the 70's. Last three Pittsburgh games stayed under total. AFC North favorites are 6-5, 1-2 on road. AFC West underdogs are 8-9, 4-3 at home.

Colts (9-0) @ Ravens (5-4)-- Undefeated Colts head back to city they bolted in dark of night 25 years ago; five of their nine wins are by four or less points, the last three by 4-3-1 points- they've actually been more impressive on road, winning by 4-21-22-36 points. Baltimore allowed total of 24 points in its last three games (three TDs/32 drives) but their offense was awful Monday- they have two TDs on last 21 drives, and have total of nine first half points in their last four games. Four of last five Raven games stayed under total. AFC South road teams are 8-4 vs spread out of their division. AFC North home teams are 5-5. Indy rushing yardage in last three games: 61-72-91. Not so good.

Falcons (5-4) @ Giants (5-4)-- Two skidding teams collide here; Atlanta is 1-3 in last four games, losing last three road games by 16-8-9 points- they're 1-4 on road with only win 45-10 at Candlestick (1-3 as road dog). Giants lost last four games before the bye, allowing 33.3 ppg (18 TDs on last 48 drives). Last four Falcon games and six of nine Giant games went over total. Giants are 3-4 as a favorite, 1-3 at home. Atlanta ran ball for 161-181-176 yards in last three games, but loss of Turner (ankle) hurts rushing attack. Giants allowed double figure second half points in seven of nine games. NFC South underdogs are 5-9 vs spread, 4-5 on road. NFC East favorites are 10-10, 6-5 at home.

49ers (4-5) @ Packers (5-4)-- Both teams snapped losing skids last week with strong defensive efforts; Niners lost four of last five games; they're 0-5 when they allow more than 16 points, 4-0 when they don't- they are 3-0-1 as a road dog, losing away games by 3-3-4 points. Packers lost two of last three games, but are 3-2 as home favorite, with wins by 6-26-10 points- they held four of last five opponents under 280 total yards. AFC West road underdogs are 8-2 against spread; NFC North home favorites are 1-5. Rodgers has been sacked 16 times in last three games. Green Bay is 5-0 when it allows 17 or less pts, 0-4 if they allow 30+. 49ers average 19.8 ppg on the road.

Seahawks (3-6) @ Vikings (8-1)-- Seattle was outscored 67-13 in second half of last four games; they had 14-0 lead in Arizona last week, couldn't cover as an 8-point dog, much less win- they're 0-4 as road underdog, losing games on foreign soil by 13-17-21-11 points. Vikings are 1-2-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-7-2-17. NFC West dogs are 9-6, 8-2 on road. Favorites from NFC North are 9-3, 6-2 at home. Hasselbeck threw seven INTs in his last two games; he's been sacked 14 times in his last four. Five of eight Viking wins are by 12+ points. Last three Seattle games, five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total.

Redskins (3-6) @ Cowboys (6-3)-- Dallas had four-game win streak snapped by Packers last week; they've allowed nine sacks, had total of just 137 yards on ground last two weeks, so offensive line is struggling. Four of Redskins' last five visits to Dallas were decided by five or less points (dogs 4-1 vs spread); Washington is 5-3 in last eight series games, they lost four of last five games overall, are 2-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 6-5-3-14 points (they are the only team to lose to Lions). NFC East home favorites are 0-4 vs spread in division tilts. Three of four Dallas home games went over total; six of last eight Redskin games stayed under.

Saints (9-0) @ Buccaneers (1-8)-- New Orleans failed to cover last three games since their wild comeback in Miami (won 46-34 after trailing 24-6); Saints are 3-1 as road favorite, winning away games by 26-20-12-5 points. Bucs came off bye playing better, beating Packers, barely losing in Miami- they scored five TDs on last 26 drives, after three TDs on last 56 drives before the bye. Tampa is 3-6 vs spread as a dog in '09, 1-3 at home. Favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Saints' run defense is struggling, allowing 154.4 yards per game over their last four games, which is why they're struggling to put teams away. Both teams saw four of their last five games go over total.

Cardinals (6-3) @ Rams (1-8)-- St Louis is first team in NFL history to play three consecutive home games against unbeaten teams, now NFC champs come to town, with their QB a St Louis icon. Arizona plays better on road- they're 4-0 on road, winning by 14-24-7-20 points (they were underdog in all four of those games). Redbirds outscored last five foes 69-26 in second half. Rams are trying hard, getting better, but they're talent-shy; only one of their five WRs was on team when season started. Four of Rams' last five games, Arizona's last three games went over total. Underdog is 7-2 vs spread in Cardinals games this season, with Redbirds 2-3 against the spread as a favorite.

Jets (4-5) @ Patriots (6-3)-- Jersey (+3.5) won first meeting 16-9 in Week 2, outscoring Pats 13-0 in second half, holding Brady to 4.9 yards/pass, but now Jets are 1-5 in last six games and allowed 30-24 points in last two games after giving up 17 or less points in five of first seven games. Interesting to see how New England bounces back after losing 35-34 in last minute at Indy last week, especially after head coach's ill-fated gamble helped cause the defeat. Patriots gained 619-414-432-477 yards in last four games; think they'll even score with a mouthy Jet squad that has lost its swagger. Four of last five Jet games went over the total. Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in AFC East divisional games.

Bengals (7-2) @ Raiders (2-7)-- Huge trap game for Bengals after beating the Steelers last week; only two of Cincinnati's wins are by more than 7 points. Cincy is 0-3 vs spread as favorite this year, 0-1 on road; they're 4-0 on road, but wins are by 7-3-3-6 points. Raiders lost three in row, six of last seven, as average of 8.5 ppg in last eight games (five TDs on 93 drives). Oakland is 4-4 as an underdog this year, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 4-20-38-6 pts. AFC North favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 1-2 on road. AFC West underdogs are 8-9 vs spread, 4-3 at home. Under is 6-2 in Oakland's last eight games, 3-1-1 in last five Bengal contests. Cincy allowed 29 points in last three games.

Chargers (5-4) @ Broncos (6-3)-- Denver lost last three games after 6-0 start; not sure how Orton's ankle is, but it better be healthy, since backup is Simms (was 3-13 for 13 yards, INT at Washington). Broncos won first meeting with Bolts, running kick and punt back for TD in 34-23 win, outscoring Chargers 17-3 in second half (SD also ran kick back for TD in that game). Under is 7-2 in Denver games this season. Home team is 1-6 vs spread in AFC West games this season. San Diego ties for first place with win; they've won four games in row, scoring 28.3 ppg- they're also 3-1 on road, 1-1 as a dog. Red flag for the Broncos is that, in last three games, they allowed 125-173-174 rush yards.

Eagles (5-4) @ Bears (4-5)-- McNabb comes home after passing for 433 yards in loss at San Diego where Philly ran out of time on last drive, but Eagles lost last two games, are 2-2 on road, 0-4 when they score 23 or less points. Bears lost four of last five games; in three night games this season, Cutler threw 11 INTs in 12 quarters. Last three teams Bears beat are Seahawks-Lions-Browns, not exactly great wins. Chicago threw 99 passes, ran ball 113 times in last two games, terrible balance. NFC East favorites are 10-10 vs spread, 5-6 on road. NFC North underdogs are 4-6 vs spread, but 4-0 at home. Seven of nine Philly games went over total.

Monday, November 23

Titans (3-6) @ Texans (5-4)-- Much like McNabb, Vince Young comes home, but he is on roll, leading Titans to three straight wins, scoring 38.3 ppg (nine TDs on last 31 drives with one turnover) after they had no TDs on 22 drives with seven turnovers in Collins' last two starts. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in AFC South games so far this season. Texans had bye last week; they've won three of last four games, are 2-2 at home. Texans (+7) won first meeting 34-31 in Nashville, despite being outrushed 240-63; Schaub was 25-39/357 passing, averaging 9.2 yards/attempt. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Houston games, 2-6 in last eight Titan tilts.

**Udog** · 11-18-2009, 02:11 PM

NFL

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 19

8:20 PM
MIAMI vs. CAROLINA
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Sunday, November 22

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NY GIANTS
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. JACKSONVILLE
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. DETROIT
Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games
Cleveland is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games
Detroit is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Detroit is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing New Orleans

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. KANSAS CITY
Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Pittsburgh is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. GREEN BAY
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Green Bay's last 18 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Seattle is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

4:15 PM
CINCINNATI vs. OAKLAND
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

4:15 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on the road against New England
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
San Diego is 2-3-3 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Diego is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games

8:20 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CHICAGO
Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Monday, November 23

8:30 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee

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**Udog** · 11-18-2009, 09:53 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 19

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What bettors need to know: Dolphins at Panthers
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Thursday, November 19

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-3, 42.5)

The Wildcat is prowling onto a playing field near you.

The NFL Network jumpstarts Week 11 action with its second straight Thursday night football game when the Miami Dolphins (4-5, 4-5 ATS) head to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers (4-5, 4-5 ATS).

Line movement

The spread opened at 3 in favor of the Panthers, but an injury to Ronnie Brown has added heavy juice to the line and even bumped it to 3.5 at some shops.

Sports Club founder Pete Korner said his sportsbook released the total at 45 because of the public’s tendency to play the over in primetime games. The total has been bet down to 42.5

Injury report

Miami’s leading rusher and best offensive player, Ronnie Brown, sustained a foot injury last week and will miss the game against Carolina. Backup Ricky Williams will start in his place.

Panthers’ reserve running back Jonathan Stewart has been nursing an Achilles injury and has yet to practice this week, but is expected to play.

Weather or not

The forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies with a 20 percent chance of light showers and wind out of the northwest from 5-10 mph. Temperature at kickoff is expected to be 59 degrees.

What Brown can’t do for you

Ronnie Brown is a key component of the Dolphins offense, but Ricky Williams has quietly become one of the most undervalued running backs in the league over the last two seasons.

In Miami’s last five games, Brown rushed for 279 yards and four touchdowns. During that same span, Williams rumbled for 310 yards and four scores and is averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season.

"This guy has worked like crazy for the year and a half that we've been here,” said head coach Tony Sparano. “Watching him work the way he works, you wouldn't think he's 30-plus years old. We're talking about a guy that led the league in rushing at one point. He gets it; he knows what he has to do."

Sparano was mum on whether or not Williams would run the Wildcat. Williams did take two snaps in the formation last Sunday against Tampa Bay.

While the Wildcat is the staple of Miami’s offense, the team is not nearly as one-dimensional since Chad Henne took over under center.

Henne has started six games this season and the Dolphins have posted a 4-2 straight up and ATS record in that time frame while averaging 29.2 points per game.

Sweet Carolin-a

Three weeks into the season, Jake Delhomme appeared to be on the brink of a benching and Steve Smith was as disgruntled as T.O. on the sidelines.

Things are much better these days in Pantherland. Carolina is 4-2 over its last six games, but just 3-3 against the number.

"Anytime your passing game struggles, I think numbers drop,” head coach John Fox stated. “We went into a funk there for the first month of the season, but I think we've got on track, and we obviously have a stiff test this week."

After averaging 12.3 ppg during the first month of the season, the Panthers are registering 23.2 ppg since. Getting dynamic receiver Smith involved in the offense has been a big part of that turnaround.

Smith caught a pair of touchdowns last week before leaving the game with injured ribs. He did return in the second half, but you have to wonder if his health and attitude are 100 percent every time he steps on the field.

Trendy solutions

Miami is 4-1 ATS in this series dating back to 1998.

Carolina is 4-0 ATS in their last four November games.

Under is 6-2 in Panthers last eight November home games.

Under is 6-1 in Dolphins last seven games as a road underdog.

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**Udog** · 11-19-2009, 07:50 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Miami at Carolina
The Dolphins look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 road games. Miami is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Dolphins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19

Game 305-306: Miami at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 135.151; Carolina 134.413
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 22

Game 407-408: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 115.543; Detroit 120.318
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 5; 35
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); Under

Game 409-410: Buffalo at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.031; Jacksonville 129.807
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 6; 40
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 9; 43
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+9); Under

Game 411-412: Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 137.675; Kansas City 126.321
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 11 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10); Over

Game 413-414: Indianapolis at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 141.294; Baltimore 142.210
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Over

Game 415-416: Atlanta at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.138; NY Giants 134.398
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 43
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 46
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7); Under

Game 417-418: San Francisco at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 128.529; Green Bay 135.589
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7; 40
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-6 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Seattle at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.828; Minnesota 137.314
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Washington at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.798; Dallas 138.917
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 12; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10 1/2); Over

Game 423-424: New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.560; Tampa Bay 131.674
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9; 48
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+11 1/2); Under

Game 425-426: Arizona at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 132.391; St. Louis 123.721
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick St. Louis (+9 1/2); Over

Game 427-428: NY Jets at New England
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 133.917; New England 145.321
Dunkel Line: New England by 11 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: New England by 10 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10 1/2); Under

Game 429-430: Cincinnati at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 132.104; Oakland 124.067
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8; 40
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 10; 36
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10); Over

Game 431-432: San Diego at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.307; Denver 136.545
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 39 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 433-434: Philadelphia at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.920; Chicago 129.547
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 8 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23

Game 435-436: Tennessee at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 134.417; Houston 136.049
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Houston by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+5); Over

**Udog** · 11-19-2009, 11:15 AM

NFL

Thursday, November 19

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Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers [8:20 PM ET]

Dolphins: Miami must be a bit tired, as this is their 3rd road game in 19 days. The good news is the Dolphins have won ATS both road games during this stretch. The Dolphins rush for more than 155 YPG, which is 4th in the NFL. They will have to make due without Ronnie Brown, as he's out for the year. RB Ricky Williams and QB Chad Henne will need to step up and lead this offense. The Dolphins are struggling on defense, as they can't stop the run. Opponents have rushed for more than 100 YDS in 5 consecutive games, which has caused Dolphins games to go over in 5 of the past 6 games.

Dolphins are 7-2 ATS last 9 games as a road underdog.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - RB Ronnie Brown (ankle) is out.
S Gibril Wilson (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Panthers (-3, O/U 42.5): Very quietly the Panthers have won 4 of 6 games SU. They've also won ATS in 4 of their past 5 games. Their rushing game has been amazing, as they've rushed for at least 180 YDS in 4 of their last 5 games. Carolina is 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards, less than a yard ahead of Miami. RB DeAngelo Williams is 4th in the NFL in rushing yards, and heads a running back committee that includes Jonathan Stewart. Carolina has played good defense of late, as they've forced 10 turnovers over the past 3 games. They've also limited their opponents rushing game, holding teams under 100 YDS rushing in 3 of their last 4 games.

Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 games as a favorite up to -3.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - RB DeAngelo Williams (knee) is questionable.
T Jordan Gross (leg) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 11-20-2009, 08:45 AM

NFL

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 11 betting notes
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Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-1)

Why Colts cover: They're 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. They've won the last six meetings. Ravens will be without Terrell Suggs who has a knee injury. Peyton Manning has only been sacked eight times this season giving him time to find open receivers. In his last three games, Joe Flacco has not thrown for more than 195 yards and only has one touchdown and two interceptions.

Why Ravens cover: Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Since becoming the lead back for Baltimore, Ray Rice has amassed 347 yards and three touchdowns in three games against some tough defenses.

Total (44 1/2): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-11)

Why Redskins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 meetings. Ladell Betts rushed for 114 yards and a TD in place of Clinton Portis against a tough Broncos defense last week.

Why Cowboys cover: Redskins are 1-4-3 ATS in their last eight road games. DeMarcus Ware could pose problems for Washington's offensive line which has allowed the third most sacks in the NFL.

Total (41.5): Over is 4-1 in Cowboys' last five home games.

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Why Browns cover: Lions are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Detroit allows the most points in the league. The Lions have a hard time protecting rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Why Lions cover: They've won four of the last five meetings. Browns are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games. The Browns have been getting terrible play from their quarterbacks all season. Cleveland's top return man and Wildcat threat, Joshua Cribbs has a neck injury.

Total (38.5): Under is 5-1-1 in Browns' last seven road games and 5-1 in Lions' last six home games.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Why 49ers cover: They're 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. Green Bay's offensive line has been terrible this season and Aaron Rodgers holds onto the ball too long. Both lead to sacks and turnovers for opposing defenses.

Why Packers cover: Niners are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Green Bay. The Packers have won the six meetings SU. Alex Smith (six INTs in four games) could have problems with the Packers' pass defense.

Total (42 1/2): Over is 23-10-1 in Packers' last 34 games.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9)

Why Bills cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Jags will struggle to replace top defensive back Rashean Mathis who is out with a groin injury.

Why Jaguars cover: Maurice Jones-Drew has been dominant all season and should have no problem will a Bills defense that is last in the NFL. Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Buffalo just fired head coach Dick Jauron and will be go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick (49.8 rating) at quarterback. David Garrard plays much better at home.

Total (42.5): Over is 5-0 in Jaguars' last five home games and 6-2 in Bills' last eight road games.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+10)

Why Steelers cover: Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Kansas City will be without leading receiver Dwayne Bowe, who is suspended for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Kansas City doesn't have the defense to keep up with Pittsburgh's many threats.

Why Chiefs cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Jamaal Charles (103 yards, TD, 5.7 average) looked great last week and could be ready to make Chiefs fans forget about Larry Johnson.

Total (40): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (-11)

Why Seahawks cover: They've won three of the past five meetings. Justin Forsett was remarkable last week in place of Julius Jones, rushing for 123 yards and a TD against Arizona's eighth-ranked rush defense. Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

Why Vikings cover: Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Combination of Brett Favre and adrian Peterson has made Minnesota difficult to defend on a weekly basis. Both starting corner backs for Seattle, Marcus Trufant and Josh Wilson, have concussions.

Total (46): Over is 4-1-1 in Seahawks' last six road games and 5-2 in Vikings' last seven games overall.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-6.5)

Why Falcons cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in New York. Road team is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings and has won the last 12 meetings SU.

Why Giants cover: Matt Ryan has struggled of late. He has 10 interceptions in his last five games. Atlanta will be without both Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood at running back.

Total (45.5): Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5)

Why Saints cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Tampa Bay. Road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Reggie Bush (98 total yards, 2 TDs) flourished in an expanded role last week and the Bucs have one of the league's worst rush defenses.

Why Buccaneers cover: They've won three of the past four meetings. Tampa Bay is 2-0 ATS since Josh Freeman became the starting quarterback. Young ball-hawking secondary could limit an offense that likes to air it out. Underdog is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings. New Orleans' secondary is banged up.

Total (50.5): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (+ 9.5)

Why Cardinals cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in St. Louis. Kurt Warner has punished his former team, throwing for 818 yards and six touchdowns in three games at St. Louis.

Why Rams cover: Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Steven Jackson has been a monster. In each of his last three games he has rushed for over 131 yards and has totalled two touchdowns. Arizona's once dominant run defense has allowed opponents to average over 152 yards per game on the ground in their last four games.

Total (46 1/2): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (N/A)

Why Chargers cover: They're 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. If Kyle Orton plays at all for Denver, he will do so with torn ankle ligaments. The Chargers (4-0) have been on a role since these teams met last month, while Denver (0-3) has been on a slide. Philip Rivers owns the Broncos, throwing for 1317 yards (263 per game) and 10 total touchdowns in his last five games against them.

Why Broncos cover: Held San Diego to 73 yards rushing in their last contest. Rushing attack should find holes against the Chargers 23rd ranked rush defense.

Total (N/A): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5)

Why Jets cover: They're 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New England. Road team is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings. Darrelle Revis is one of the best shutdown corners in the league and held Randy Moss to 24 yards receiving in their last meeting.

Why Patriots cover: They've won four of the past six meetings. They will be fired up after letting last week's game against Indianapolis slip away in the final minutes. Jets are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 1-5 ATS in their last six games. New York has been struggling to stop the run recently.

Total (45): Over is 6-2 in Patriots' last eight home games and 4-1 in Jets' last five games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (+ 9.5)

Why Bengals cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Bruce Gradkowski (career 58.7 QB rating) will start at quarterback for Oakland. NFL's second-leading run defense will make it hard for Oakland to move the ball on the ground.

Why Raiders cover: They've won three of the past four meetings and have never lost Cincinnati at home. Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. Cincy is likely to without leading rusher Cedric Benson who has a hip injury.

Total (36): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (+3)

Why Eagles cover: They've won five of the past seven meetings. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Philly has the NFC's 5th-best pass defense and Jay Cutler has thrown 12 interceptions in his last five games. LeSean McCoy has played well in Brian Westbrook's absence.

Why Bears cover: Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Philadelphia's secondary is hurting and opposing quarterbacks have completed 70 percent of their passes in the last two games.

Total (45): Over is 4-1 in Eagles' last five road games and 8-2 in their last 10 games overall.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4.5)

Why Titans cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Chris Johnson (1,091 yards, eight TDs) is proving to be unstoppable in the running game. Titans are 3-0 SU and ATS since Vince Young has become the starting quarterback.

Why Texans cover: They're 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games. Andre Johnson has torched Tennessee for 569 yards receiving and four touchdowns in their last five meetings. Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.

Total (48): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Houston.

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**Udog** · 11-20-2009, 08:50 AM

NFL

Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL total bias: Betting over gets very simple
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Chicks dig the long ball and this NFL season, bettors can dig the over.

The over has a slight advantage against the under this fall, going 74-68 overall.

Last week, we saw offenses break free and light up the score boards at a staggering pace. The over went a solid 9-6 last week, making bettors who wagered on high-scoring games searching for a common thread to build on the success this week.

Don’t worry – I found it.

Games featuring both quarterbacks passing for at least 175 yards went 9-2 over/under, while games featuring just one or none, all fell below the number. And these aren’t always easy to predict.

Ben Roethlisberger fell just short, passing for 174 yards, but the stat held true, as the Steelers’ field-goal fest against the Bengals failed to even come close to the total.

And don’t even ask about Alex Smith, Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell. Yeesh.

It sounds simple, but the best way to pick a game to go over the total is to select a pair of teams that are both capable of lighting up the scoreboard. And last week, games that featured a pair of teams with at least mediocre passing games were able to score enough to push the number over the total.

So who can we count on to chuck the pigskin around this weekend? Let’s take a closer look at our passing matchups.

The Colts-Ravens game seems poised for a points explosion. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has passed for at least 175 yards in each game this season prior to last week against the Browns, and Indianapolis depends on the arm of quarterback Peyton Manning to win games.

The Eagles-Bears game also should feature more scoring then a frat house hosting a freshman mixer. Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb averages 240 yards per game and Jay Cutler might be a turnover machine, but he still throws for more than 260 yards per game.

And what game should you stay away from? How about Cincinnati at Oakland.

The Bengals proved last week that they are willing to win ugly. Very ugly. And Oakland claims to run passing plays, but it seems more like the team throws up jump balls and hopes for the best. Also, again with the JaMarcus Russell factor. He's so bad, Bruce Gradkowski is getting loose right now.

So this week, look for the passing game to lead to points, and the over to lead to cash in your wallet.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 44)

The Colts have scored at least 24 points in three of their past four meetings against the vaunted Ravens defense, including lighting the unit up for 31 in an early-season meeting last year.

The difference this time is that the Ravens offense is poised to put more points up on the board. Joe Flacco is becoming an elite passer and Ray Rice is a fantastic receiver out of the backfield and a threat to go the distance whenever he touches the ball.

The Colts have scored at least 20 points seven times this year and will continue to do the same this week. The only difference is that this time, the Ravens should keep up.

Pick: Over

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 41.5)

The 49ers try to win every game in grind-it-out fashion and don’t care about style points. The team has also had great success shutting down high-powered passing attacks such as the Colts and Cardinals, holding both potent aerial games to fewer than 20 points.

The only problem? First name Alex, last name Smith. San Francisco’s offense is woeful and after what the Packers did to a vastly superior offense against the Cowboys last week, do you really think that the 49ers can do a whole lot better?

Green Bay will have to work for their points, but not much the 49ers do will enable them to reach the endzone and push the score over the total.

Pick: Under

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-6.5, 46)

Both these teams love scoring this season, going a combined 11-6-1 over/under this year.

And with Falcons running back Michael Turner injuring his knee last week, expect Atlanta to put the ball in the air even more than normal to try to put points on the board. He should find success against a beleaguered Giants defense that has allowed at least 20 points in four straight games – all loses.

Expect Eli Manning and receiver Steve Smith to keep clicking, moving the Giants up and down the field and finding the goal line.

Look for the ball to be in the arm and points to be on the board.

Pick: Over

Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 12-18

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**Udog** · 11-21-2009, 10:15 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 22

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What bettors need to know: Eagles at Bears
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Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (+3, 43)

This is no rematch of the infamous "Fog Bowl,'' although that would explain Bears QB Jay Cutler's recent bout with night blindness.

The "Fish Bowl'' may be more like it with Cutler coming off a five-interception performance and Eagles QB Donovan McNabb returning to play in his hometown.

But unlike the 1988 playoff game, when a fog bank rolled in off of Lake Michigan and kept even the players from seeing the game, these Eagles (5-4) and Bears (4-5) are in danger of missing the playoffs altogether, so it's a bit of a must-win for both sides.

Line movement

This line has held steady at the Eagles -3 with most books offering up -110 juice.

True to their straight-up records, the Eagles are 5-4 ATS this season while the Bears are 4-5 ATS. Coincidentally, both teams have covered in every game they have won.

The total has held steady at 45 since opening. The Eagles have hit the over in seven of their nine games this season.

Injury report

Eagles RB Brian Westbrook will not play after suffering his second concussion in the past three games. Also out for Philly is WR Kevin Curtis (knee) LB Akeem Jordan (Knee) and S Quintin Demps (ankle). CB Sheldon Brown (hamstring) is doubtful.

The Bears will be without LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee) and RB Garrett Wolfe (kidney), while TE Desmond Clark (neck) and S Kevin Payne (back) are doubtful.

Weather or not

The weather is better than one might expect for a November night game at Soldier Field with the temperature in the low-50s at kickoff and down into the low-40s by game's end.

There is a slight chance of rain but the wind is expected to be light at about 6 mph out of the east in the Windy City.

Prime-time picks

Cutler's knack for throwing interceptions this season is well documented, especially since 11 of them have come in his three prime-time performances.

Cutler cemented that statistic with his five picks against the 49ers last Thursday, but he has had 10 days to recover while the Eagles are coming off a cross-country loss at the Chargers Sunday.

At least this will be a familiar trip for McNabb, who is 3-1 straight up against his hometown team at Soldier Field. He played only briefly as a rookie in a 1999 win but led the Eagles to a pair of victories before time ran out on him in last year's loss.

An interesting side bet: Which QB will receive the highest cheer-to-boo ratio from the Chicago fans?

Running on empty

Two teams traditionally known for their balanced offensive attacks have become one-sided in favor of the passing game this season.

While both teams rank in the Top 10 in passing, they are near the bottom of the league in rushing.

The Eagles rank 23rd, but those numbers include the use of Westbrook, who won't be available for this game. He accounted for all but one yard of his team's rushing total against the Chargers. The Eagles will rely on rookie LeSean McCoy to get the ground game going.

The Bears have fallen all the way to 30th, which may explain why there's been so much pressure on Cutler's arm. Running back Matt Forte has been disappointing after a strong rookie season and he won't have his backup in Wolfe available for the game.

D-Day for Jay?

If you're looking for the key matchup or a key mismatch, the Eagles' defensive strengths happen to be the Bears' most glaring weaknesses.

The Eagles’ defense ranks tied for second in both interceptions (15) and sacks (29), meaning they should be able to get pressure on Cutler and they know what to do when he makes a mistake.

Many of Cutler's 17 interceptions are the result of a lack of protection so expect the Eagles to throw the kitchen sink at him.

Trendy solutions

The Bears were 15-0 straight up against the Eagles at home until McNabb's rookie season in 1999. The Eagles made it three in a row at Soldier Field before last year's 24-20 loss.

The Bears are 0-3 ATS in primetime games this season, but all of those games were on the road against solid teams - Green Bay, Atlanta and San Francisco.

The Eagles are 2-0 ATS on the road this season when they stay in the same time zone, but 0-2 ATS when they travel outside of it.

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**Udog** · 11-22-2009, 11:38 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 22

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Gone with the wind: Week 11 NFL weather report
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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 42)

The 49ers don’t need any extra problems to deal with when their offense takes the field. But the Green Bay defense is coming off a dominant effort against Dallas, allowing only seven points. San Francisco also must contend with an 11 mph wind, which should trouble its quarterback Alex Smith much more than Green Bay’s strong-armed Aaron Rodgers.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9, 42.5)

The Jaguars game plan will be very simple on Sunday: run, run and run some more. Expect heavy doses of Maurice Jones-Drew, and not only because of the terrible Buffalo run defense. Weather.com is calling for an 80 percent chance of rain on a muggy, humid afternoon with temperatures in the 70s. The showers should only encourage both teams to keep the ball on the ground and avoid taking too many risks through the air.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11, 50.5)

The Saints figure to be able to throw all over the Tampa Bay secondary Sunday, but the team actually might get more resistance from Mother Nature. There is an expected 11 mph wind during the game, along with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. With so many injuries to the Saints, even against the Bucs, any significant weather factors could greatly impact the scoring.

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**Udog** · 11-22-2009, 11:47 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 22

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Tips and Trends
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Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

Colts (-1.5, O/U 44.5): The Colts remain a perfect 9-0 SU after their great game against the Patriots last week. The Colts are also a perfect 4-0 on the road both SU and ATS. QB Peyton Manning has been unstoppable this season, as he's thrown for more than 300 YDS in 8 of 9 games this season. The Colts offensive line has done a great job protecting Manning, as he's only been sacked 8 times in 9 games. The Colts still allow a league low 15.8 points per game. Despite injuries to several starters, the Colts defense will continue to keep points off the scoreboard.

Colts are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - RB Joseph Addai (finger) is probable.
DB Bob Sanders (bicep) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Ravens: The Ravens are fighting for a playoff berth at 5-4 SU on the season. The Ravens have only won 2 of their past 6 games SU. QB Joe Flacco has struggled a bit of late, as he's only thrown for more than 200 YDS in 1 of his past 5 games. In fact, 4 of the past 5 games the offense of the Ravens has gained less than 300 total YDS. Defensively, the Ravens continue to be the Ravens. Opponents have only scored 24 PTS against the Ravens over the past 3 games. The Ravens have lost their last 5 Sunday games after playing on Monday Night Football the week before.

Ravens are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 last 7 home games.

Key Injuries - DE Haloti Ngata (ankle) is probable.
TE Todd Heap (chest) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

Eagles (-3, O/U 45): Philadelphia is likely to come into tonight desperate considering they have lost their past 2 games. The Eagles are 2-2 on the road both SU and ATS. When the Eagles are successful at running the football, they win games. They're only averaging 60 YDS rushing in their 4 defeats. RB LeSean McCoy will need to play well considering Westbrook isn't playing. This Eagles defense has 16 INTs this year, and will be looking to pressure Jay Cutler into more mistakes. On the road, the Eagles need to win the turnover battle to win this game.

Eagles are 5-1 ATS last 6 games following a SU loss.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) is out.
CB Sheldon Brown (hamstring) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 30 (Side of the Day)

Bears: Chicago comes into the national spotlight tonight struggling, having lost 4 of their past 5 games SU. The Bears struggled the last time they were at home too, losing badly to the Cardinals. Prior to that game, the Bears were 3-0 at home both SU and ATS. QB Jay Cutler has been a turnover machine, as he has 17 INTs on the season. The good news is that he only has 2 INTs at home against 7 TDs. His QB rating at home is more than 30 points higher at home. The Bears will look to get RB Matt Forte and the running game going, as they've rushed for fewer than 85 YDS in 4 of the past 5 games. This Bears defense needs to play well and inspire this team at home. The Bears have struggled on defense, allowing more than 40 PTS in 2 of their past 4 games.

Bears are 4-1 last 5 games as a home underdog.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - C Olin Kreutz (back) is probable.
CB Zackary Bowman (abdominal) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

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**Udog** · 11-22-2009, 11:50 AM

NFL
Dunkel - Sun. POD

Philadelphia at Chicago
The Eagles look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3).

**Udog** · 11-23-2009, 08:19 AM

NFL

Monday, November 23

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What bettors need to know: Titans at Texans
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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4, 48.5)

The “old” team from Houston takes on the “new” team from Houston in a game featuring two clubs that are playing well.

The Texans (5-4 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) have won three of their last four, but lost a heartbreaker to the Colts two weeks ago.

The Titans have won three straight after their surprising 0-6 start.

Line movement

The line has been consistent all week. Most shops opened at 4 and it made it to 4.5 at a few places midweek before resting at 4. The total has been between 48 and 49 all week.

Injury report

Both teams are healthy at this stage of the season. The biggest injury is to Tennessee’s Justin Gage, the Titans’ No. 2 receiver. Gage has been ruled out with a back injury. He hasn’t had a great season with only 22 receptions for 302 yards, but he’s been a solid player throughout his career.

Back to the future

Running back Steve Slaton is having a disappointing season, rushing for only 359 yards with a 3.1 average. He lost the starting job to Ryan Moats two weeks ago because of problems fumbling the ball, but he regained first team status after a good week of practice.

Slaton is the more explosive option out of the backfield but he’s fumbled the ball seven times already this season.

Talking points

Tennessee has enjoyed great success over the years against its division rival. The Titans are 11-4 all-time against the Texans and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Houston is 2-0 SU and against the number in the last two matchups, but Titan players weren’t hiding their confidence heading into Monday’s big game.

“We owe them and they know we owe them,” tight end Bo Scaife told the Tennessean.

Linebacker Keith Bulluck promises to “destroy” Houston’s playoff hopes and secure Tennessee’s fourth consecutive win in the process.

Houston, we don’t have a problem

Andre Johnson is having another monster season but he grabbed headlines for other reasons this week. His uncle and agent, Andre Melton, told ESPN the Magazine that he has a plan to force Houston to trade Johnson if the Texans don’t make the playoffs.

The All-Pro wideout tried his best to squash the story during the week.

“That didn’t come from me,” he told the Houston Chronicle Friday after team practice. “I wish (Melton) hadn’t said what he said, but that’s his opinion. I make my own decisions, and I plan on being here until I retire.”

Born to run

The Titans have looked great in each of their last three games. Tennessee is averaging 35 points per game since Vince Young regained the starting quarterback spot.

The biggest reason for the success is the play of running back Chris Johnson. Johnson is averaging an absurd 6.4 yards per carry and leads the league with 1,091 yards.

Houston is middle of the road at stopping the run, but Johnson ripped the unit apart in the two sides’ first meeting this season. The East Carolina product gained 197 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries.

Extra points

The Texans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against AFC South opponents.

The Titans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when getting between 3.5 and 10 points. They’re also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog.

The under is 5-1 in Houston’s last six games while the over is 4-0 in Tennessee’s last four road games.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and indexes - Week 11 (11/19 - 11/23)

NFL Trends and indexes - Week 11 (11/19 - 11/23)

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