NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (11/12 – 11/16)

[pm530]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, November 12 – Monday, November 16

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

College Football trends are in the section: “NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (11/10 – 11/15)”
>> Click on the first “Matchup Link” below. <<

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Matchup Links

NCAAF Trends and Indexes – Week 11

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NFL Matchups

NFL Stats Center

NFL Hot or Not

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NFL News and Weather

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[pm530]

NFL
Long Sheet


Note: If there updates, we will re-post

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Thursday, November 12
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CHICAGO (4 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 5) - 11/12/2009, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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Sunday, November 15
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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 4) at NY JETS (4 - 4) - 11/15/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (6 - 1) at WASHINGTON (2 - 6) - 11/15/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (6 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) - 11/15/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (3 - 5) at TENNESSEE (2 - 6) - 11/15/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (1 - 7) at MINNESOTA (7 - 1) - 11/15/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (8 - 0) at ST LOUIS (1 - 7) - 11/15/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 73-105 ATS (-42.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (5 - 3) at CAROLINA (3 - 5) - 11/15/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 76-52 ATS (+18.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 7) at MIAMI (3 - 5) - 11/15/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 7) at OAKLAND (2 - 6) - 11/15/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 27-53 ATS (-31.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
OAKLAND is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-52 ATS (-34.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (3 - 5) at ARIZONA (5 - 3) - 11/15/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 3) - 11/15/2009, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (6 - 2) at GREEN BAY (4 - 4) - 11/15/2009, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 0) - 11/15/2009, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 71-44 ATS (+22.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Monday, November 16
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BALTIMORE (4 - 4) at CLEVELAND (1 - 7) - 11/16/2009, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

NFL
Short Sheet


Note: If there updates, we will re-post

Thursday, November 12

CHICAGO at SAN FRANCISCO, 8:20 PM ET NFL
CHICAGO: 2-8 ATS as road dog of 7pts or less
SAN FRANCISCO: 3-0 ATS at home vs. Chicago


Sunday, November 15

Byes: Houston, NY Giants

JACKSONVILLE at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 11-0 Over after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
NY JETS: 13-2 ATS at home off home loss

DENVER at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: n/a
WASHINGTON: 0-8 ATS in non-conference games

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 1-6 ATS off 2 straight home wins
PITTSBURGH: n/a

BUFFALO at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 34-17 Under after allowing 30+ points
TENNESSEE: 11-24 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

DETROIT at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 15-5 Over in road games
MINNESOTA: 5-1 Over as a favorite

NEW ORLEANS at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 8-1 ATS as road favorite
ST LOUIS: 5-14 ATS in home games

ATLANTA at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 12-2 Under at Carolina
CAROLINA: 6-0 Under at home off road loss

TAMPA BAY at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 47-22 Under off double digit win
MIAMI: 0-6 ATS vs. NFC

KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 13-4 ATS at Oakland
OAKLAND: 6-0 Under in November games

SEATTLE at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
SEATTLE: 12-2 Over revenging loss by 21+ points
ARIZONA: 0-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

PHILADELPHIA at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 7-1 ATS off division loss
SAN DIEGO: 1-6 ATS off BB Unders

DALLAS at GREEN BAY, 4:15 PM ET
DALLAS: 6-1 ATS vs. NFC
GREEN BAY: 22-8 Over vs. NFC

NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
NEW ENGLAND: 71-44 ATS as an underdog
INDIANAPOLIS: 3-11 ATS at home vs. New England


Monday, November 16

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
BALTIMORE: 16-5 ATS on grass
CLEVELAND: 6-0 Under off non-conference game

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[pm530]

NFL


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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 12

8:20 PM
CHICAGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago


Sunday, November 15

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Carolina is 7-14-4 ATS in its last 25 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. TENNESSEE
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. WASHINGTON
Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Denver is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 15 games when playing at home against Detroit

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NY JETS
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
NY Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ST. LOUIS
New Orleans is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
New Orleans is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MIAMI
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

4:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle

4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Dallas is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Dallas

4:15 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN DIEGO
Philadelphia is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
San Diego is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

8:20 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
New England is 15-2-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


Monday, November 16,

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Baltimore

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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


Chicago at San Francisco
The 49ers look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as an underdog. San Francisco is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12

Game 105-106: Chicago at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 126.950; San Francisco 134.540
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Under



SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 15

Game 215-216: Jacksonville at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 122.702; NY Jets 136.917
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 14; 37
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 6 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-6 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Denver at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.088; Washington 128.181
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1; 34
Vegas Line: Denver by 4; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Under

Game 219-220: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 136.644; Pittsburgh 138.566
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+7); Over

Game 221-222: Buffalo at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.137; Tennessee 134.014
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 7; 36
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-6 1/2); Under

Game 223-224: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 119.157; Minnesota 137.314
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 18; 44
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 16 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-16 1/2); Under

Game 225-226: New Orleans at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 146.020; St. Louis 120.261
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 25 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 13 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-13 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: Atlanta at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.138; Carolina 128.428
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under

Game 229-230: Tampa Bay at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 127.335; Miami 135.643
Dunkel Line: Miami by 8 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Miami by 10 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+10 1/2); Over

Game 231-232: Kansas City at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.034; Oakland 120.232
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 7; 33
Vegas Line: Oakland by 2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2); Under

Game 233-234: Seattle at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.105; Arizona 141.376
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 16 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick Arizona (-8 1/2); Under

Game 235-236: Philadelphia at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.920; San Diego 136.307
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2 1/2); Over

Game 237-238: Dallas at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 138.548; Green Bay 139.700
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Under

Game 239-240: New England at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.861; Indianapolis 146.460
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3); Over



MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16

Game 243-244: Baltimore at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 139.210; Cleveland 120.543
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 18 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-10 1/2); Over


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[Udog]

NFL


Thursday, November 12

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What bettors need to know: Bears at 49ers
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Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 43.5)

The NFL Network’s inaugural game of the 2009 season means two things. Casual fans will be searching for the channel they don’t have and tuned in fans must labor through the torment of Matt Millen calling the game.

The Chicago Bears (4-4) and San Francisco 49ers (3-5) square off in a conference matchup Thursday night that will not resemble the late 80s rivalry between these former NFC powerhouses.

Line movement

The spread opened at -2.5 in favor of the 49ers and has settled at -3 with most books tacking on -115 juice.

Chicago is 4-4 against the number this season while the 49ers hold a 5-2 ATS record.

The opening total was posted at 43 and mild action has elevated the number to 43.5.

Injury report

Bears defensive tackle Tommie Harris could still face a suspension for punching an Arizona offensive lineman last week.

San Francisco’s second-string rookie running back, Glen Coffee, will miss the game after suffering a concussion against the Titans.

Weather or not

The forecast predicts partly cloudy skies with a northwesterly wind of 9-12 mph. Temperature at kickoff is expected to be in the upper-50s.

Gold rush is gone

This is not the same 49ers team that appeared reborn after first four weeks of the season. Head coach Mike Singletary is the franchise’s savior, but must refocus his club after four consecutive losses.

The stoic Singletary downplayed any extra motivation in facing the team he played linebacker for during his 12-year NFL career.

“[No emotions] in particular,” Singletary said on the team’s official website. “I’m just excited for the game, but no emotions outside of the emotions that I have for any other team.”

Two key players will not suit up for San Francisco for the second straight week. The absence of offensive tackle Joe Staley and cornerback Nate Clements was felt in the 34-27 loss to the Titans last Sunday.

Vince Young averaged 9.1 yards per pass play and the Titans front seven sacked quarterback Alex Smith four times while pressuring him into three interceptions and two fumbles.

Bearing their weaknesses

The vaunted defense that single-handily led the Bears to the Super Bowl in 2006 is gone. After season-ending injuries to linebackers Brian Urlacher and Pisa Tinoisamoa, Chicago’s defense has been in a tailspin.

The Bears give up 119.5 ypg on the ground and have surrendered 514 rushing yards during their last three games.

The Bears are still licking their paws after Kurt Warner and the Arizona aerial assault torched them for five touchdowns last week. Chicago has yielded more than 40 points twice this season and rank tied for 28th in the league in passing touchdowns allowed with 16.

Terrorizing tight ends

Two of the best young tight ends in the league will be showcased in the Thursday night affair.

Greg Olsen is transforming into the go-to red zone target for Jay Cutler. He registered 71 yards on five receptions last week – three of which went for scores. Olsen’s six touchdowns on the season lead Chicago’s receiving corps.

San Francisco’s offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye has done a superb job getting the team’s most dynamic offensive player involved. Tight end Vernon Davis leads the team in receptions (42), yards (477) and touchdowns (7) this season.

“[Davis] continues to get better and he is going to help this team win a lot of football games,” Singletary stated on the team’s official website. “He is committed, that’s why he is a captain. He is the example that everybody on this team wants to look to as a guy who is doing it right.”

Trendy solutions

The last four games in this series have gone over the posted total.

As underdogs, Chicago has won straight up in two of the series’ last four games. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against the Bears.


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[Udog]

NFL
Write-Up


Week 10 NFL games

Thursday, November 12

Bears (4-4) @ 49ers (3-5)-- Long travel on short week for Chicago team that is 1-3 since its bye, with only win against lowly Browns; they're 1-3 on road; its only win was in Seattle with backup QB Wallace playing. Bears are 8-3 in the game after their last 11 losses. 49ers lost last four games, allowing 6.7+ ypp in all four games; they lost field position in all four, by 10-14-7-6 yards. Chicago won last three series games by 10-8-31 points-- all three were in Windy City. Three of 49ers' last four games went over total. In last three games, 49er foes started eight drives in Niner territory, SF none in enemy territory. NFC West home favorites are 3-4 vs spread; NFC North road dogs are 0-5.


Sunday, November 15

Jaguars (4-4) @ Jets (4-4)-- Gang Green lost four of last five games before the bye; they covered the game after their last seven byes. Jets are 0-3 when they allow more than 17 points; they're 2-3 as favorite, 1-2 at home. Jags are 1-3 on road, losing by 2-41-17 points; they're 3-2 as underdog, 2-2 on the road- Jags scored 17 or less points in their losses, 23+ in their wins. AFC East favorites are 7-2 vs spread, 5-1 at home. Jax ran ball for 166-217-173 yards in last three games. AFC South road teams are 7-4 vs spread in non-division games. Five of last seven Jaguar games stayed under total; three of last four Jet games went over. Last three Jet losses are all by five or less points.

Broncos (6-2) @ Redskins (2-6)-- Denver had everything go for it before bye, but scored one lone offensive TD on 21 drives in two games since, losing by 23-18 points. This is cross country trip on short week with San Diego rivalry game on deck for Denver. Dysfunctional Washington lost its last four games, scoring average of 10 ppg; only teams they've beaten this year are Rams/Bucs, two teams with one win each. NFC East underdogs are 1-3 vs spread in non-division games. Denver covered six of last nine road games; Skins are 0-10-1 vs spread in last 11 games vs AFC. Five of last seven Washington games stayed under the total.

Bengals (6-2) @ Steelers (6-2)-- Game for first place in AFC North, where the underdog is 5-1 vs spread in division games. Cincy won first meeting 23-20 at home, rallying from 13-3 halftime deficit to win in last minute- they held three of last four opponents to 14 or less points. Steelers won Monday night game in Denver, their fifth win in a row; they're 4-0 at home, winning by 3-4-13-10 points (1-3 as HF). Bengals lost last two visits here by 14-17 points; this is their first road game in five weeks. Odd stats: Steelers have allowed a TD on offense/special teams in their last six games, and Steeler opponents started 4 drives in Pittsburgh territory, but didn't score on any of the four.

Bills (3-5) @ Titans (2-6)-- Tennessee hasn't turned ball over (+6) in Young's two starts, winning both after 16-turnover 0-6 start with Collins at QB (-10). After scoring total of 43 points in four losses before their bye, Titans scored 30-34 in last two games, running ball for 305/152 yards. Bills won last two on road, allowing two TDs on 28 drives to Jets/Panthers, but they gave up 318 rushing yards to Jets (first team to win allowing that many rushing yards since 1944). AFC East underdogs are 2-7 vs spread in non-division games, 2-3 on road. AFC South home faves are 2-5. Last four Buffalo games stayed under total; five of last seven Titan games stayed under.

Lions (1-7) @ Vikings (7-1)-- Minnesota (-10) won first meeting 27-13 back in Week 2, as Vikings had 18-yard edge in field position, outscoring Lions 20-3 in second half. Lions lost last five visits here by average score of 26-14 (2-3 vs spread). Detroit is 0-4 on road, losing by 18-24-26-12 points (0-4 vs spread, three of four went over). Vikings are 3-0 at home, with no wins by more than seven points (1-2 as HF). Detroit lost field position in last seven games by an average of 14 yards; they scored four TDs on 42 drives over last four games. Five of last six Minnesota games went over. Favorite is 4-1 vs spread in NFC North games this year.

Saints (8-0) @ Rams (1-7)-- New Orleans defense scored five TDs in last five games, as if their offense wasn't potent enough. Saints scored 39.8 ppg in last four games; they're 3-0 on road this year, winning by 26-20-12 points. Saints covered 10 of last 13 as road favorite; Rams are 3-7 vs spread as double digit dog; they're 0-3 at home this year, losing by 19-28-36 points, but they did get first win in last game, at Detroit. St Louis scored just four TDs on their last 50 drives, but offensive line is getting better- Rams ran ball for 155-150 yards in last two games. NFC South favorites are 9-2 vs spread, 3-0 out of division; NFC West home dogs are 0-4.

Falcons (5-3) @ Panthers (3-5)-- Atlanta (-6) beat Carolina 28-20 in Week 2, as Panthers started six of nine drives 80+ yards from end zone; Falcons had an 11-yard edge in field position, but Carolina outgained them 440-371 for game. Falcons lost three of four road games, winning 45-10 at SF. Teams split their last four meetings here, with average total in those games 30.5. Panthers lost two of three home games, beating Redskins 20-17 in game they were down at half, 10-2. Carolina is 3-2 in last five games, and had 14-0 lead at Saints last week, so they're playing better of late. Home teams are 1-3 in NFC Ssouth division games. Four of last five Falcon games went over total.

Buccaneers (1-7) @ Dolphins (3-5)-- Miami is 3-2 in last five games, but only one of wins is by more than five points; they're favored for first time in 2009. Fish scored 30+ points in four of last five games (15 TDs on last 53 drives, with only six FG tries). Bucs got first win last week, but used special teams, turnovers to score 24 points in last 12:54 of game- they allowed average of 181 rushing yards over last three games. Miami is just 3-16 vs spread as home fave against non-divisional opponent. NFC South underdogs are 4-9 outside their division, 3-5 on road. AFC East favorites are 7-2, 5-1 at home. Four of the last five Miami games went over total, as did three of Bucs' last four games.

Chiefs (1-7) @ Raiders (2-6)-- Oakland (+3) won 13-10 at Arrowhead back in Week 2, despite being outgained 409-166; they were +2 in turnovers, held the Chiefs without TD in two red zone trips. Raiders scored total of 58 points in last seven games; they're 0-6 when they allow more than 10 points. Chiefs are 2-2 as road dog, with only win at Washington; new WR Chambers scored two TDs in last 3:00 for late cover at Jacksonville last week, giving Cassel hope he has a go-to receiver. Home side is 1-5 vs spread in AFC West games this year. Five of last seven Oakland games stayed under total; over is 4-1-1 in Chiefs' last six games. In last six games, Raiders were outscored 52-9 in second half.

Seahawks (3-5) @ Cardinals (5-3)-- Arizona (+3) won 27-3 at Seattle in Week 6, grabbing 14-0 lead before Hasselbeck ever took field; Cardinals outgained Seahawks 344-128, sacked QB five times. Seattle lost last three visits here by 6-3-13 points. Redbirds have been a lot better on road this year, losing three of four at home, blowing 21-0 halftime lead in only home win. NFC West home favorites are 3-2 vs spread. Seattle is 2-5 in last seven games, rallying to beat Lions at home last week, after trailing 17-0; they're 0-3 on road, with losses by 13-17-21 points. In last three games, Seattle has run ball total of 51 times for 148 yards. Cardinals won four of five games since their bye.

Eagles (5-3) @ Chargers (5-3)-- San Diego won last three games, scoring 27.3 ppg, with Rivers leading last minute drive to win at Swamp last week; Bolts are 2-2 at home; they allowed 31-38-34 points in their losses, average of 15.2 ppg in their wins. Philly just played all three NFC East rivals; they're 2-1 on road, winning at Panthers/Redskins, with an upset loss in Oakland. Philly has only two TDs on last six red zone drives, over last four games; Chargers have six TDs on last seven red zone drives. NFC East road teams are 5-6 vs spread out of their divsion, 1-2 as road dog; AFC West home favorites are 1-2. Six of eight Philly games went over total.

Cowboys (6-2) @ Packers (4-4)-- Slumping Green Bay allowed 38 points in each of last two games, losing at previously winless Bucs last week; they lost to Dallas last two years, by 10-11 points. Natives are restless in Cheesetown, as three of Pack's four wins are Lions-Rams-Browns. Cowboys won their last four games; they're 3-1 on road, losing at Denver, winning other three games by 13-6-4 points. Green Bay is -24 in sacks this year (37-13). Five of the last seven Packer games, three of last four Cowboy games went over total. NFC East favorites are 10-9 vs spread, 6-5 on road. NFC North underdogs are 3-5, 3-0 at home. Cowboys are in a Eagle/Redskin sandwich.

Patriots (6-2) @ Colts (8-0)-- Unbeaten home team only laying 3? Half of the Indy wins are by four or less points; opponents are 33-58 on 3rd down-- it is important to move chains, keep Manning off field and far away from end zone when he is on field. Patriots are 17-36 on 3rd down in last three games, but are 0-2 on road, losing at Jets/Broncos, with neutral field win over winless Bucs in London. Colts won four of last five series games since '05; they've allowed an average of 10.5 ppg in last six games overall (seven TDs/65 drives). Colts are 1-3 as home favorite, winning at home by 2-17-4-3 points. NFC East dogs are 2-7 vs spread, 2-3 on road.


Monday, November 16

Ravens (4-4) @ Browns (1-7)-- Hideous Cleveland likely to go back to Quinn at QB this week, after they scored total of 29 points in last four games (two TDs on last 43 drives). Browns (+13.5) got squashed 34-3 in Baltimore back in Week 3 (outgained 479-186), as Ravens averaged 8.9 ypp and had TO ratio of +3. Ravens lost four of last five games; they're 3-2 as favorite, with wins by 14-5-31-23 points. Three of last four Baltimore games, five of Browns' last seven games stayed under total. Ravens won here 37-27 LY, after losing three of previous four visits to this site. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in AFC North games this season, with Browns' loss in Baltimore the only setback

[Udog]

NFL


Thursday, November 12

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Tips and Trends
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Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers [8:20 PM ET]

Bears: Chicago is both 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this year. In their 3 road losses, the Bears averaged 13 PPG. QB Jay Cutler has 14 TD's and 12 INT's on the season. Cutler has been sacked 19 times this season. Over the past 3 games, the Bears have given up 514 YDS rushing. Being the road team on a short week doesn't do this team any favors either. The offensive and defensive lines need to be much better tonight.

Chicago is 4-1 ATS last 5 games following a SU loss.
Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS last 6 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - DT Tommie Harris (knee) is probable.
S Kevin Payne (back) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

49ers (-3, O/U 43): 49ers have lost 4 consecutive games. 49ers have 11 turnovers in last 4 games. 49ers had 2 turnovers in first 4 games. QB Alex Smith has been very shaky since taking over the starting position, and had 3 INT's and 2 fumbles in his last game. 49ers will need RB Frank Gore to have a big game. Gore is healthy now, and has a 6.2 AVG per rush this month with 2 TD's. In this 4 game losing streak, the 49ers have given up 121 points to their opposition.

Home team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings in this series.
Over is 12-4 last 16 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries -CB Nate Clements (shoulder) is out.
RB Frank Gore (eye) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)


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[Udog]

NFL


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Total bias: NFL Week 10
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The Miami Dolphins are making sure you want to swim with the fishes this season.

The Dolphins have a 5-3 over/under record but more impressively, are a fantastic 4-1 since quarterback Chad Pennington went down with a season-ending shoulder injury.

In his place, first-year starter Chad Henne has emerged as a legitimate passer, posting a 77.8 passer rating and throwing for 990 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. This is even more impressive considering the team has been plagued by drops – four last week alone and dynamic playmaker Ted Ginn, Jr. is second in the league with six on the season. Just imagine when players like rookie Brian Hartline start catching on.

But the real story for the Dolphins offense has been the other players who line up under center. Ronnie Brown has been electric running the team’s Wildcat package, but with the addition of college running quarterback Pat White, the Dolphins unveiled a spread-option package the squad used on both of its touchdown drives.

In last week’s 27-17 loss at New England, Brown had 48 yards on 15 carries, but also completed 1-of-2 passes for a 1-yard touchdown. White failed to complete his only pass attempt, but ran six times for 45 yards and added a dynamic aspect to the team’s offense. All of these touches, plus Henne still had 34 pass attempts.

Oh, and Ricky Williams also had 33 yards and a score.

So what’s it all mean?

The team’s total offense may be ranked in the mid-20s, but the rushing game is fourth-best in the league (151 ypg), and the offense is scoring more than 24 points a game. The Dolphins offense may use a lot of formations and gimmicks to get into the end zone, but it’s no Chicken of the Sea.

Better yet, the team’s defense does fans of the over two huge favors – it allows opponents to not only average 25.5 points per game, but the frequent scoring means more big return opportunities for Ginn. Through nine weeks, Ginn is averaging more than 32 yards per kickoff return, easily the best in the league for any player with at least 15 attempts.

Lots of scoring by the opposition and then the Dolphins offense gets great field position off a Ginn return - now that’s a recipe for points.

So unlike the Dolphins receivers, don’t drop the ball. Jump right in and swim with the fishes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-10, 43.5)

Just because the team’s are under .500, doesn’t mean they can’t put points on the board.

These squads combine for an over/under record of 10-6 this season, and the Buccaneers are coming off their first win of the year with rookie quarterback Josh Freeman leading the way to a 38-28 victory over the Packers. This will be a huge spark for Tampa Bay’s offense, which entered the game averaging fewer than 17 points per game.

On the other sideline, the Dolphins will concede points to the rejuvenated Bucs attack, but should do plenty of damage against the beleaguered Tampa Bay defense.

Look for this one to turn into a shootout, and don’t be surprised to see a few special teams scores.

Pick: Over


Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 41.5)

This is the highest a total for a meeting of these teams since October of 2007. But what’s to say this game will be higher scoring than Cincinnati’s 23-20 win earlier this month?

Bengals running back Cedric Benson can’t shoulder the rushing load by himself and is on pace for 400 carries. Also, the team must find a way to make up for the loss of slot receiver Chris Henry, who was having a solid year.

The Steelers should also be better on defense this time around, as safety Troy Polamalu is back in the lineup. This game is in Pittsburgh, where field goals and opposing passing games go to die.

Don’t expect to see any flash – or points – in this one.

Pick: Under


Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-9.5, 47.5)

So tell me this: Why am I supposed to believe that the same team that mustered only a field goal at home in a 27-3 loss to the Cardinals last month will suddenly crack their defense this week?

Seattle even had quarterback Matt Hasselbeck back in the lineup. And if the Seahawks, who fell behind Detroit 17-0 last week, think they can claw out of a similar hole without being buried for good, thing again. Arizona has its offense clicking and should do just enough to jump out to a solid lead and then put the squeeze on Seattle.

The Seahawks, however, should force the Cardinals to march the length of the field to score and not give up big plays – shortening the game and keeping high scores off the board.

Look for a convincing Arizona win, but few Seattle points.

Pick: Under

Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 10-17

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[Udog]

NFL


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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 10 betting notes
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Atlanta at Carolina (+1)

Why Falcons cover: They're 15-7-4 ATS in their last 26 meetings. They have won three of the past four meetings. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Michael Turner (317 yards, 3 TDs) has been a beast in the last couple weeks and faces Carolina's 23rd-ranked run defense. The Panthers lost second-leading tackler Thomas Davis for the season with a torn ACL. DeAngelo Williams is dealing with a knee injury.

Why Panthers cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. NFC South. Matt Ryan has struggled of late. He has only topped 200 yards passing once in his last four games and has thrown eight interceptions in those contests.

Total (44.5): Under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Carolina.

Tampa Bay at Miami (-9.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: They've won the last three meetings. Dolphins are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite. First-round pick Josh Freeman is coming off his first NFL victory. He looked good throwing for 205 yards and three touchdowns. Could get Antonio Bryant back to complement the passing game.

Why Dolphins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Buccaneers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Whether it is Ronnie Brown, Rickey Williams or Pat White, new wrinkles keep getting added to the Wildcat offense and the Bucs 30th-ranked rush defense will have trouble defending against it.

Total (43.5): Over is 11-4 in Buccaneers' last 15 road games and 4-0 in Dolphins' last four home games.

Detroit at Minnesota (-16.5)

Why Lions cover: Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Minnesota is vulnerable through the air, especially with Antoine Winfield out. If the offensive line can protect Matthew Stafford, he could have success throwing down the field.

Why Vikings cover: They've won 14 of the past 15 meetings. Lions are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine meetings. Calvin Johnson is still dealing with a knee injury that is limiting his big-play ability. Vikes lead the league in sacks and could force Stafford into throwing interceptions, which he is prone to do.

Total (47.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (-6.5)

Why Jaguars cover: They're 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in their last five meetings. Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Jets’ 15th-ranked rush defense could have a hard time stopping Maurice Jones-Drew, who scored twice in a 41-0 romp in their last meeting.

Why Jets cover: Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. David Garrard has not thrown a TD pass on the road this season and the Jags are 1-3 SU in those games.

Total (40): Under is 6-1 in Jaguars' last seven road games.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7)

Why Bengals cover: Road team is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Cedric Benson has had his biggest games against some of the top defenses in the league. Beat the Steelers 23-20 in their Week 3 meeting as 3.5-point underdogs.

Why Steelers cover: They’ve won five of the last six meetings. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. Since Rashard Mendenhall has taken over as the feature back, Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU.

Total (42): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans at St. Louis (+13.5)

Why Saints cover: They’ve won three of the past four meetings. They're 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. They are looking for their first 8-0 start in franchise history.

Why Rams cover: Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on turf. Steven Jackson is on fire. He has rushed for 283 yards in his past two games and has scored in each of his last three games against the Saints.

Total (50): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis and 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.

Buffalo at Tennessee (-6.5)

Why Bills cover: They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Are expected to get Trent Edwards back this week to face the league’s worst pass defense.

Why Titans cover: They're 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. They’ve won five of the past six meetings. They are 2-0 SU and ATS since Vince Young has taken over as the starting quarterback. Chris Johnson is the league’s leading rusher and faces the NFL’s worst rush defense.

Total (40.5): Over is 5-2 in Bills' last seven road games and 5-2 in Titans' last seven games overall.

Denver at Washington (+4)

Why Broncos cover: Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Redskins are 2-11-3 ATS in their last 16 games. Washington will be without Clinton Portis who has a concussion. Elvis Dumervile (10.5 sacks) could bother a Redskins’ offensive line that allows a lot of sacks.

Why Redskins cover: Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. NFL’s best pass defense will make Denver use their struggling ground game to move the ball. Broncos’ once-stingy defense has allowed 58 points in their last two games, both losses. Brandon Marshall is dealing with a back injury.

Total (36): Under is 10-1 in Redskins' last 11 home games and 7-1 in Broncos' last eight games overall.

Kansas City at Oakland (-1)

Why Chiefs cover: They're 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Oakland. Road team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings. Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. With Larry Johnson gone, team will be able to focus better without his distractions. Matt Cassel has looked better in recent weeks and seems to be settling in as the team’s QB. Raiders could be distracted with all of the negative press and uncertainty surrounding head coach Tom Cable.

Why Raiders cover: They’ve won three of the past four meetings. Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC. Pass rush could disrupt K.C.’s passing game that has allowed 30 sacks this season.

Total (36.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oakland and 8-1 in the last nine meetings overall.

Seattle at Arizona (-9)

Why Seahawks cover: Nate Burleson guaranteed that his team would beat Arizona this week and the Seahawks will be motivated to help him back up his words. The Cards struggle at home going 1-3 SU and ATS and have been outscored by an average of 13 points in those games.

Why Cardinals cover: Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Arizona and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings overall. Matt Hasselbeck is dealing with shoulder and rib injuries. Will get Anquan Boldin back after he voiced his displeasure about being held out last game.

Total (37): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Arizona and 8-3 in the last 11 meetings overall.

Dallas at Green Bay (+3)

Why Cowboys cover: They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Green Bay is reeling after losing in Brett Favre’s return to Lambeau Field and then falling apart in the fourth quarter last week and handing the Buccaneers their first win of the season. Miles Austin’s insertion into the starting lineup has sparked the passing game and Tony Romo has flourished because of it.

Why Packers cover: Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Ryan Grant has averaged 5.5 yards per carry and scored two TDs in his past two meetings with Dallas. DT Jay Ratliff (knee) and LB DeMarcus Ware (foot) are banged up on the Cowboys’ defense.

Total (47.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia at San Diego (-1)

Why Eagles cover: They’ve won the last two meetings. They're 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Why Chargers cover: Eagles are likely to be without Brian Westbrook, who has ankle and head injuries. Philly secondary is depleted with top return man and nickel back Ellis Hobbs out for the season and cornerback Joselio Hanson suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. With four sacks in the last two weeks, Shawne Merriman is starting to look like the player that was once the NFL’s most feared pass rusher.

Total (47): Over is 7-2 in Eagles' last nine games.

New England at Indianapolis (-3)

Why Patriots cover: They're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Indianapolis. Underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Indianapolis is dealing with a banged up secondary that is missing both Marlin Jackson and Bob Sanders.

Why Colts cover: They’ve won four of the past five meetings. Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Peyton Manning has thrown for 1382 yards and scored 11 total touchdowns in his last five games against New England.

Total (49.5): Under is 4-0 in Patriots' last four road games and 4-1 in Colts' last five home games.

Baltimore at Cleveland (+11)

Why Ravens cover: They’ve won five of the past seven meetings. Browns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Cleveland has been going through a shake up in the front office and coach Eric Mangini is on the hot seat. Ray Rice has been unstoppable in both the running and passing games and will get to test the league’s worst defense.

Why Browns cover: Brady Quinn (62.1 rating) takes over for Derek Anderson (36.2) at quarterback. Quinn is a better game manager than Anderson. Home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Cleveland.

Total (40): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

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[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, November 15

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What bettors need to know: Patriots at Colts
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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 49)

It doesn’t get much bigger than this when it comes to the regular season.

This intriguing matchup figures to come down to which of these two potent offensive units can be slowed – at best.

Peyton Manning and the Colts have the league’s top passing attack with 315 yards a game, but the Patriots’ pass defense has been nearly as good. It is allowing just 179 yards a game through the air to rank third in the NFL in pass defense.

Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick kept it close to the vest when discussing defensive strategy this week, but did indicate there aren’t likely to be any major new wrinkles.

“We’re not going to go in here and install a new defense in the next couple of days,” Belichick told the Boston Herald. “I don’t think that would be a good way to defend one of the best offensive teams not only this year, but in the last decade and the history of pro football. You go with some things you’re comfortable doing, the defense is familiar with, the principles. You might give them a little different look, but you don’t want to be out there with everybody being hesitant and indecisive. You want to be confident and be able to play aggressively.”

New England is averaging 295 yards a game through the air and trails only the Colts in that category. The Colts have the league’s ninth-best pass defense having allowed an average of 195 yards a game and also lead the league in scoring defense by allowing just 13.5 points a game.

With that said, the Colts’ defense has been hit hard by injuries the last couple of weeks. They will be once again be without cornerback Marlin Jackson and strong safety Bob Sanders among others.

Pats’ receiver Randy Moss appears eligible for another big game. Moss, who has 49 catches for 712 yards and five touchdowns this season, will have a height advantage over the Colts smaller corners. He had nine catches for 145 yards and a touchdown in the Pats’ last win over the Colts in 2007.

Head-to-Head

The Colts have won four of the last five head-to-head matchups, including an 18-15 home win as 5-point favorites last November. These teams have played each other at least once in every season this decade, with the exception being in 2002.

Injuries

Starting center Dan Koppen, who suffered a knee injury last week vs. Miami, is among a handful of Patriots that are listed as questionable or doubtful this week.

On a positive note, tackle Matt Light, running back Sammy Morris and receiver Julian Edelman practiced for the first time in weeks and are all expected to be game-time decisions. Light and Morris are dealing with knee injuries while Edelman is recovering from a broken arm.

Jarvis Green, Fred Taylor and Brandon Tate are all out for the Patriots.

As for the Colts, receiver Austin Collie (upper body) and running back Donald Brown (shoulder), the Colts’ first-round draft pick this year, are listed as questionable. Brown and Collie both told the local media they are expecting to play.

Line movement

The Colts opened as 2.5-point home favorites. Depending on where you look, you can now get the Colts and lay anywhere from one to three points. The total opened at 50 and has moved to 49 virtually everywhere.

Trends

The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.
The Colts are…2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record…4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games…1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.
The Under is…4-0 in the Patriots last four road games…4-1 in the Colts last five home games.
The underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in these teams last 15 meetings…the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in these teams last five meetings.


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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel - Sun. POD


Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
The Bengals look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games as an underdog. Cincinnati is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+7).

[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, November 15

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Tips and Trends
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Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers [CBS | 4:15 PM ET]

Eagles: Philadelphia makes the cross country trip to San Diego at 5-3 SU this season. This will be the Eagles 4th road game of the season. Eagles haven't allowed a team to score 20 PTS or more when on the road. Of the Eagles last 10 games decided by fewer than 10 points, they've only won once. This Eagles defense is second in the NFL in takeaways, forcing 22 turnovers. This Eagles rushing attack has rushed for more than 100 YDS just twice in its last 7 games. QB Donovan McNabb has been very streaky this year, and he's coming off his worst QB rating game of the season. McNabb has thrown for more than 200 YDS just once this season on the road.

Eagles are 8-2 ATS last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 21-6 last 27 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) is probable.
CB Asante Samuel (neck) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Chargers (-1, O/U 47): San Diego is riding high after last weeks win on the road against the Giants. Chargers will look to win their 4th consecutive game. Chargers are 2-2 SU at home, but have only won 1 game ATS this year at home. The Chargers have the worst rushing offense in the NFL, at under 70 YPG. Luckily, the Chargers have QB Phillip Rivers (2,250 YDS passing, 15 TDs) who is a true team leader. In it's 3 game winning streak, the Chargers defense has accounted for 15 sacks, 5 in each game.

Chargers are 1-5 ATS last 6 games following a SU win.
Over is 7-3 last 10 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - C Nick Hardwick (ankle) is probable.
LB Kevin Burnett (leg) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total of the Day)



New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

Patriots: New England is playing their best football of the season right now. They have won 3 consecutive games SU, with their offense leading the way. QB Tom Brady has thrown for more than 1,000 YDS with 10 TDs during this 3 game winning streak. The Patriots are also running the ball well, having rushed for more than 100 YDS in its last 3 games. This is the 1st game this season the Patriots have been the underdog. This Patriots defense is 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, at 14.4 PPG. The casual fan will be expecting instant offense, but in reality you have the two best scoring defenses in the NFL.

New England is 8-3 ATS last 11 meetings in Indianapolis.
Under is 4-0 last 4 road games.

Key Injuries - T Matt Light (knee) is questionable.
S Brandon Meriweather (foot) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)

Colts (-3, O/U 49.5): Indianapolis has won 17 consecutive regular season games entering today. QB Peyton Manning is having another MVP caliber season, as he's thrown for more than 300 YDS in 7 of 8 games. This Colts offense has put up big statistical numbers this year, but have only scored 38 PTS combined in the past two weeks. This Colts defense is often overlooked because of their offense, but not this year. The Colts defense leads the NFL in scoring defense, allowing only 13.5 PPG on the season. This defense does have numerous injuries entering the contest tonight.

Colts are 4-10 ATS last 14 home games.
Under is 7-3 last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - RB Donald Brown (shoulder) is questionable.
DB Bob Sanders (bicep) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21


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[pm530]

NFL
Dunkel Index


Updated with "Dunkel" write-up

Baltimore at Cleveland
The Ravens look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 games versus teams with a losing record. Baltimore is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Ravens favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-10 1/2).

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16

Game 243-244: Baltimore at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 139.210; Cleveland 120.543
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 18 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-10 1/2); Over

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[Udog]

NFL


Monday, November 16


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Tips and Trends
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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

Ravens (-11, O/U 39): Baltimore comes into tonights game strugglng, losers of 4 of their last 5 games SU. 3 of the past 4 games have seen the offense struggle, as they've been held under 100 YDS rushing and under 200 YDS passing. This Ravens offense hasn't scored an offensive TD in the first half of the previous 4 games. QB Joe Flacco (over 2000 YDS passing, 12 TDs) and RB Ray Rice lead this offense. Rice leads all NFL running backs in catches, with 46. This Ravens defense will look to stop the running game of the Browns. Easier said than done, considering the Ravens have given up more than 100 YDS rushing in 3 of their past 4 games.

Ravens are 9-3 last 12 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - DE Haloti Ngata (ankle) is questionable.
LB Ray Lewis (foot) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Browns: This is only the 3rd home game in the past 8 games for the Browns. Cleveland only has 1 win on the season, but have used their bye week to get ready for today. Browns are going with QB Brady Quinn today, and will look to improve an anemic offense. This offense is the 31st ranked total offense, and also has the 2nd most turnovers in football. Avoiding turnovers has been a key focus of their bye week. This Browns team has given up 88 points over the past 3 games. KR Joshua Cribbs is the Browns most dynamic player, and will need to play well on special teams to give his team a chance today.

Home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a bye week.

Key Injuries - TE Robert Royal (flu) is questionable.
CB Eric Wright (upper body) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17


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