NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (11/10 - 11/15)

[Udog]

NCAAF


Thursday, November 12

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What bettors need to know: South Florida at Rutgers
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South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+1, 55.5)

Line movement

This game opened anywhere from even to -1.5 in favor of South Florida and it hasn’t done much anywhere. We may see the line creep up a little bit based on the heavy public action on the Bulls.

The total opened at 46 and can be found now at 45 with some shops.

Weather

There is a 20 percent chance of rain Thursday night with the temperature going down to 45 degrees and winds coming in from the northeast at10 m.p.h.

Scarlet Fever

While the Scarlet Fever is not running rampant through the Rutgers team, the flu has taken its toll and put a good number of players down for extended periods of time.

“We have a real bug going through the game, which may keep a few guys from practicing,” Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano said. He did mention that flu shots were available but did not say how many players got them and he didn’t mention how many players were hit by the virus.

The good news is that Rutgers had an off week and that’s when the bug hit its apex on the players so there has been plenty of time for rest and recuperation. And while it is looking like only a few players will show the effects this week, the missing of practice time is just as detrimental.

Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers

Rutgers has a knack for getting the ball from opponents. The team has 25 takeaways, tied for fifth in the country and good for tops in the Big East. The Knights lead the nation in turnover margin at +2.25 also thanks to an offense that has given is up only seven times.

In their six wins this season, the Scarlet Knights own a sparkling 22-2 turnover differential. In their two setbacks, they have committed five turnovers and only taken three.

South Florida coach Jim Leavitt said he will have an eye on the turnover margin Thursday night.

“It's as important statistic as there is,” Leavitt said. “You turn the ball over, you're probably not going to win. If you don't, you have a shot.”

The Bulls gave it up six times in the loss to Rutgers last season.

Running of the Bulls

South Florida is coming off its best rushing performance in Big East action. It ran for 189 yards on 40 carries (4.7 yards per carry) against West Virginia nearly two weeks ago. The rushing offense has been solid for the most part. It’s rung up at least 122 yards on the ground in every game and its 179.1 yards per game average is 35th overall and third in the Big East.

If the Bulls can hit that average, they’ll come away with the win but it won’t be easy. Rutgers is allowing 106.8 ypg on 3.3 ypg on the season and that’s after allowing 223 yards against Pittsburgh three games back and 197 yards against run-oriented Army.

South Florida is 5-0 when it wins the rushing battle and 1-2 when it does not. On the other side, Rutgers is 4-0 when it has the ground edge and just 2-2 when the opposition does so it is fairly safe to say the winner of the line of scrimmage wins the game.

Revenge on mind

South Florida won the first ever meeting between these two teams back in 2005 but Rutgers has won the last three meetings. The last two have been particularly painful for the Bulls and they have had this game circled ever since last year’s setback.

Several of South Florida’s players spoke about being embarrassed by the outcome of last year's 49-16 home loss to Rutgers, with some reportedly taking offense to the Scarlet Knights passing the ball when the game was out of reach in the fourth quarter.

Rutgers aired it out early in the fourth quarter up 35-16 and connected on a 93-yard touchdown pass.

The loss the year before might have even more painful. South Florida went to New Brunswick with a 6-0 record and ranked No. 2 in the country. Rutgers came away with a 30-27 win and the fans rushed the field. The Bulls went on to lose three straight games.

Trends

The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday night games.

Rutgers is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog and is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog of a field goal or less. The Scarlet Knights are 1-11 ATS in home games following a game where they committed no turnovers.

The over has come through in all four previous meetings.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Thursday, November 12

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Tips and Trends
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South Florida at Rutgers [ESPN | 7:30 PM ET]

South Florida: The Bulls come off a great victory against WVA, and will look to keep the momentum going. The Bulls have lost their last 3 games to Rutgers, so revenge is fresh on their mind. QB B.J. Daniels has rushed for over 100 YDS in 3 games since taking over for injured QB Matt Grothe. South Florida has a very good defensive front 4, headlined by DE's George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul. This game is for 4th place in the Big East.

South Florida is 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-3 last 10 games following a bye week.

Key Injuries - LB Kion Wilson (thigh) is questionable.
WR Carlton Mitchell (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Rutgers (-2.5, O/U 45): The Scarlet Knights come off a home loss in their most recent home game to Pittsburgh. Prior to that, Rutgers had played a cupcake schedule. Rutgers beat UCONN SU as 7.5 underdogs on the road most recently. Their defense has been superb, as they lead the country with a +18 turnover differential. It's rush defense has also been solid, giving up 3.3 YDS per rush. Rutgers will need QB Tom Savage to play with poise, as he faces an aggressive pass rush. The freshman QB has been great at avoiding turnovers up to this point.

Rutgers is 6-1 ATS last 7 games as an underdog.
Over is 12-2 last 14 games following a bye week.

Key Injuries - LB Marcus Witherspoon (leg) is questionable.
OL Desmond Stapleton (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Thursday's games

Bowling Green lost nine of last 10 games vs Miami, with dogs winning three of last four, but Red Hawks are 1-9 this year, even though they've covered five of last six games. Miami allowed 200+ rushing yards in last four games. Bowling Green is 1-3 as favorite this year; they've won three of last four games, but two of wins were by single point each. Falcons have won their last three road games. MAC home underdogs are 8-8.

Northern Illinois lost last two games vs Ball State, 45-14/27-21, but Ball is just 1-8 this year, though they're 3-0 as road underdog, losing games on road by 7-24-5 points. In two games since their regular QB got hurt, Cardinals are 8-19/79 passing. Huskies won last three games by 5-17-44 points, running ball for average of 298.3 ypg. NIU is 3-1 as home fave this year. Three of last four Ball State games stayed under the total.

Underdog is 4-0 vs spread in South Florida-Rutgers games, with dog 3-1 SU in those games; Knights won last three games by an average score of 34-21. Rutgers is 6-2 but has two I-AA wins; best team they beat so far is UConn, when they hit 81-yard TD pass in last minute of game. Last four USF games went over the total; four of last five Rutgers games stayed under. Big East home teams are just 5-12 in conference play. USF completed just 35 of 73 passes the last three games.



Friday's games

Temple won its last seven games, its best win streak since '74, but last two wins were by combined total of five points; Owls are 3-2 as a fave this season. Akron upset rival Kent State last week, ending seven-game skid; they're 3-4 as an underdog this year. Akron converted just five of last 33 third down plays. Last four Temple games went over the total; four of Zips' last five games stayed under. Six of seven Akron losses are by 12 or more points.

Underdog is 4-1-1 vs spread in West Virginia-Cincinnati games, with the visitor winning five of six; WVU won its last three visits here by 3-38-5 points, but Bearcats are 9-0 this year, covering three of last four games- they're 1-2 as home favorite after giving up 35 second half points in last week's 47-45 win over UConn. Mountaineers' two losses are both by 11 points. Five of last seven Cincinnati games stayed under the total.



Saturday's games

Top games

Iowa QB Stanzi is out (ankle), freshman Vandenberg ain't ready to face Buckeyes in Horseshoe; Ohio State won last three games since losing at Purdue by combined margin of 107-14- they're 8-1 vs spread in last nine games, 4-0 as home favorite. Hawkeyes held three of last four opponents to 17 or less points- they won both times they've been an underdog this season. Three of last four Iowa games stayed under the total.

Underdog is 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine Michigan State-Purdue games; State's 48-31 win here in '07 was its first in five visits to W. Lafayette. Boilers won three of last four games, rallying from down 24-10 at half to win at Michigan last week (first win in Ann Arbor since '66). Spartans have three '09 losses where they scored 30+ points. Six of last eight Purdue games stayed under total. Big 11 home dogs are 5-6 vs spread.

Clemson won last three games, scoring 38-40-40 points, but they're just 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by FG. Tigers are 3-2 as a fave this year, 0-1 on road. NC State lost four of last five games; they gave up an average of 39.7 ppg in last six games. ACC home dogs are 7-2 against spread. Clemson won last five series games by average of 14 points; they won last last two visits to Raleigh by 42-20/31-10 scores.

Georgia Tech is 13-1 in last 14 games vs Duke, winning last five by an average of 35-12, winning last two here 35-10/41-24; Jackets are 4-2 as a favorite this year, 3-0 on road, winning away games by 11-5-25-25 pts. Tech covered six of last seven games, scoring 40 ppg in last three, but in last three games, they have no INTs. Duke gained total of just 125 yards in 19-6 loss last week; they're 3-2 as a dog. Last three Duke tilts stayed under the total.

Tennessee won last dozen games vs Ole Miss, winning last three played here, but teams haven't met since '05. Vols won three of last four games (4-0 vs spread); they're 0-2 on the road, losing 23-13 at Florida, 12-10 at Alabama, two tough places to win. Rebels' star DE Hardy is out; Three of last four Tennessee games went over total. Rebels SEC home favorites are 7-15 vs spread. Ole Miss is 0-2 when it allows more than 17 points.

Average total in last three Nebraska-Kansas games is ridiculous 88.7, as home team won last five series games. Nebraska lost last two visits to Lawrence, 76-39/40-15, but Husker defense allowed total of 22 points in last three games, upsetting Oklahoma 10-3 last week. Kansas lost its last four games, still needs win to be bowl eligible. Eight of nine Nebraska games stayed under the total. Big 12 home underdogs are 7-7 vs spread.

Pitt won last five games (4-1 vs spread), winning last two by 27 points each; Panthers are 6-2 vs spread as favorite this year. Notre Dame lost to Navy last week for second time in three years; this is their first game in hostile stadium since Sept 26. Underdog covered last eight Irish games. Four of last five Pitt games, last three ND Games stayed under total. Big East favorites are 8-7 vs spread out of conference, 4-4 at home.

USC lost to Oregon, Oregon lost to Stanford, so Cardinal is an 11-point dog to USC; go figure. Trojans are 1-7 vs spread in last eight games, with last three wins by 7-6-5 points. Stanford scored 38-33-51 points in last three games, running ball for 249-254 yards in last two. Can freshman QB Luck engineer the road upset? Over is 3-1 in last four games for both USC, Stanford. Cardinal covered five of last six series games. Pac-10 home favorites are 8-9 against the spread.

Underdog covered 71% of Cal-Arizona games over last 21 meetings, with home side covering last four; Arizona lost last three visits here by 14-28-28 points, but this is best Wildcat team in years, going 4-1 with Foles as starting QB, scoring 37.6 ppg. Cal RB Best is out (concussion); they are 1-5 vs spread in last six games, 0-1 as home dog this year (30-3 vs USC). Cal was held to 14 or less points in all three of its losses. Pac-10 home underdogs are 8-5 vs spread.

Oregon State won last five games vs Washington by 27-15 average score; Beavers won four of last five games, with underdog 5-1 vs spread in last six contests. OSU gained 436+ yards in each of last four games. Huskies are 5-3 vs spread as underdog; they've lost five of six games since upset of USC, losing by point at UCLA last week, despite five takeaways by U-Dub (+4). The visiting team covered 11 of last 15 series games.

Home side won eight of last nine Miami-North Carolina games, with the Hurricanes losing last two visits here, 31-28/33-27. Since blowing 24-6 lead in loss to Florida State, Tar Heels allowed total of 23 points in wins over Va Tech/Duke. Miami scored 39 ppg in last three games; they're 3-1 on road (dog 3-1 vs spread). Last three Carolina games went over total; four of last five Miami games stayed under. ACC home dogs are 7-2.

Average total in last three Texas Tech-Oklahoma State games is 74.7, as . home side won last seven series games. Tech lost last three visits to this site by 4-7-2 points. Red Raiders are 6-0 if they score 31+ points, 0-3 if they don't. State held three of last four to 17 or less points- they won six of last seven games, Tech won four of last five. Three of last four OSU games stayed under total. Big 12 home favorites are 7-8 vs the spread.

Last big hurdle for TCU possibly playing for unlikely national title are Utah Utes, who beat Horned Frogs four of last five years (dogs 3-1 SU in last four), winning 27-20/32-18 here. Utes' only '09 loss is 31-24 (+4) at pretty good Oregon team- they held all six opponents since to 17 or less points. TCU covered last four games, winning by average score of 44-6, but three of those teams are awful. MWC home faves are 5-6. Five of last six Utah games stayed under total.

Auburn, Georgia both beat up on I-AA teams last week to end 1-3 skids; underdog covered three of their last four series games. Dawgs are 1-3 vs spread as favorite this year, giving up 37+ points in four of its six (3-3) SEC games- they have amazingly poor -16 turnover ratio in '09. Auburn is 2-1 as an underdog this year. This is bigger game for 5-5 Georgia, as Dawgs aren't bowl eligible yet, while 7-3 Auburn is. Favorites are 13-10 against the spread in SEC play this season.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, November 13

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What bettors need to know: Friday night football
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West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (-9, 55)

Line Movements

The line opened with Cincinnati as a 9.5-point home favorite and rose quickly to 10 before dipping to 8.5 on Thursday. It sat at an even 9 as of Thursday evening. The total opened at 53.5 and rose one point to 54.5.

Hobbling Stars

West Virginia QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine are both hampered by ankle injuries that have limited them in the past two games. Devine, after rushing for 912 yards and 10 touchdowns in the first seven games of the season, has rushed for 95 yards and no touchdowns during the past two games.

Cincinnati allowed 462 yards and 45 points to the UConn Huskies last week and showed that their defense is vulnerable to quick-strike offenses. UConn RB Jordan Todman ran 26 times for 162 yards and four touchdowns.

Brown and Devine will need to be at the top of their games to pull off the road upset against the No. 4 team in the country.

Quarterback Controversy

There are a lot of college coaches out there that wish they had the same quarterback problem that Bearcats head coach Brian Kelly has on his hands. Cincinnati has two outstanding QBs in Tony Pike and Zach Collaros. Tony Pike led the Bearcats to six straight wins while throwing for 272 yards per game with 15 TDs and just three picks prior to being injured against South Florida on Oct. 15.

Pike's injury promoted redshirt freshmen Zach Collaros as the starter. Collaros has exceeded all expectations completing 76 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns and just one pick in three starts. He has also rushed 44 times for 288 yards and four touchdowns.

Pike is now available to play this week but Kelly says he’s sticking with the red-hot Collaros for this Friday night game.

Bearcats rolling a high-octane offense
Cincinnati racked up 711 total yards and 47 points against UConn last week. Their 482.6 yards per game ranks third nationally and their 40 PPG ranks 5th nationally.

Trends

Cincinnati is just 2-9 SU (straight up) versus the Mountaineers since 1980 (0-7 SU at home in that same span) yet still come into this game as a healthy 9-point favorite. The Bearcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games in November.

West Virginia is just 2-6 ATS this season, however, the underdog and road team is 4-1-1 ATS (against the spread) in the last six meetings between these two.

West Virginia has finished ‘over’ in its last seven games as an underdog and 17 of its last 23 games in November. Cincy has finished ‘under’ in 10 of its last 14 home games and 13 of its last 19 games as a home favorite.



Temple Owls vs. Akron Zips (+4, 43.5)

Line Movements

Akron opened as a 4-point home dog and that is where the line currently stands. The total has opened at 44 and stood at 43.5 as of Thursday night.

No longer losers

With a 7-2 record, Temple has clinched its first winning season since 1990 and is bowl eligible. After starting the season 0-2, the Owls have won seven straight games by an average of 10.8 points per game.

They are now 5-0 in the MAC East and in uncharted territory as road favorites – a situation they’ve been in just three times since 2002. They now have a target on their back and the rest of the MAC would love to knock them off their perch.

The Owls blew a 31-13 lead to Miami (Ohio) last week and needed a last-second field goal to pull off the 34-32 victory (-17). They now go on the road for the third time in four weeks to face the Zips, who played the spoiler last week and defeated Kent State to end a six-game losing streak. Akron is now playing its second straight home game after playing 4 of their previous 5 on the road.

Running Attack

Bernard Pierce has carried the Owls with 1,211 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns this season. In the last three games alone he has accumulated 657 yards and eight touchdowns on a 6.0 yards per carry (ypc). average.

The Zips have had a stout run defense this season, allowing just 3.1 ypc and two touchdowns in their four home games this season. Last year they held Temple to just 3.4 ypc and went into the fourth quarter tied 6-6 before allowing 21 points in the final quarter.

Trends

Temple is 3-25 SU in its last 28 November and December road games but is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 conference games. Akron is 19-8-2 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog but just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Zips are 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference games.

The Owls have finished ‘over’ in their last four games and the Zips jumped ‘over’ in eight of their last 11 at home.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


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College football Top 25 cheat sheet: Week 11
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No. 1 Florida at South Carolina (+16, 42.5)

A Gator win would give the program its first unbeaten season in the SEC since 1996. UF has only covered once in its past four games overall but has crushed USC the past two seasons.

South Carolina might get starting defensive end Cliff Matthews back -- he missed last week’s loss to Arkansas. Coach Steve Spurrier says he will do more playcalling for the offense.

No. 2 Texas at Baylor (+23.5, 51)

The Longhorns have an average margin of victory of 37.3 points in the past 11 meetings. Cody Johnson has been anointed the new starting RB after two TDs last week against UCF. He replaces Fozzie Whittaker, who lost a fumble last week.

The Bears have been very improved the past few weeks. They outscored Nebraska 10-0 in the second half of a 20-10 loss two weeks ago and then won at Missouri last week for their first Big 12 road win in three years.

No. 3 Alabama at Mississippi State (+12.5, 43.5)

Alabama’s rush defense is No. 2 in the nation and Mississippi State is fairly one-dimensional. Coach Nick Saban has warned his players about a letdown all week in the wake of the LSU win and reminded them that Mississippi State has won two of three in this series.

The Bulldogs have the second-best back in the SEC in Anthony Dixon, who is averaging more yards per carry than the Tide’s Mark Ingram. Mississippi State, which has covered three games in a row, averages 219.2 yards per game on the ground.

No. 14 Utah at No. 4 TCU (-19.5, 45)

The Utes are an astonishing 7-0 all-time in games in which they and the opponent are both ranked in the AP poll. The Utah offensive line is strong, leading the way for RB Eddie Wise to rush for 100 yards-plus in a school-record six consecutive games.

TCU has dropped five of six all-time to Utah, including 13-10 last year, but the Frogs haven’t lost since. They have won 12 games in a row at home. TCU has outscored its opponents 178-25 in its last four games overall.

No. 23 West Virginia at No. 5 Cincinnati (-9, 53.5; Friday)

Cincy will stay with freshman QB Zack Collaros as the starter, as he gives the Bearcats a more mobile threat than Tony Pike, who will play some. UC has yet to lose a fumble this year and has thrown just four interceptions.

WVU’s unique 3-3-5 defense has held Cincinnati’s high-powered offense to five total TDs in the past two meetings. On offense, RB Noel Devine (who will play despite ankle injury) could have a big day against a UC defense that allowed 201 yards and four TDs to UConn on the ground last week.

Idaho at No. 6 Boise State (-31, 64)

The Vandals might be without starting QB Nathan Enderle after he sat out last week vs. Fresno State. Whether Enderle or backup Brian Reader starts will be a game-time call. The Idaho defense hasn’t forced a turnover in three games – that needs to change.

BSU has dominated its in-state foe, winning 10 in a row (all by at least 14) and scoring an average of 64.3 points in the past three. QB Kellen Moore should have a field day against an Idaho defense that allows more than 254 yards per game through the air and 20 TDs.

No. 7 Georgia Tech at Duke (+12, 60.5)

The ACC Coastal is Georgia Tech’s with a win. The Yellow Jackets have won the last five games in the series and 13 of the last 14. Red-hot QB Josh Nesbitt needs 183 rushing yards to become the first Jacket to ever pass for 1,000 yards and run for 1,000 yards in a season.

Blue Devils QB Thaddeus Lewis did struggle last week against North Carolina but has put up some big numbers this year. Georgia Tech’s defensive weakness is against the pass (10th in ACC).

No. 13 Iowa at No. 8 Ohio State (-17, 36.5)

With Ricky Stanzi done for the regular season, redshirt freshman QB James Vandenberg makes his first start against one of the nation’s best defenses. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is 0-3 in Columbus, with his teams having been outscored 91-27.

The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in total defense, rushing defense and turnover margin, while the offense leads the conference in scoring. OSU has won 10 of 11 in the series, but the teams haven’t played since 2006.

Notre Dame at No. 9 Pittsburgh (-7, 58.5)

The Irish lost tight end Kyle Rudolph to a regular season-ending injury vs. Navy. He has 33 catches, second-most on the team, for 364 yards and three touchdowns. The Irish have lost their last seven to Top 10 foes, matching the longest streak in school history.

Pitt has won two of three against Notre Dame but hasn’t beaten the Irish in Pittsburgh since 1999. Panthers freshman Dion Lewis gets the publicity, but QB Bill Stull is on pace to have a better senior season than Dan Marino did at Pitt.

Stanford at No. 10 USC (-10.5, 54.5)

The only team to beat USC in the Trojans’ past 48 home games? Stanford in 2007. This year’s Cardinal defense isn’t very good, but USC’s offense has produced one touchdown in the past six quarters. The past two games, Southern Cal is 6-of-27 in third-down conversions.

The Trojans have never lost in November under Pete Carroll, but they likely won’t have top WR/PR Damian Williams because of an ankle sprain. Williams has caught 45 passes for 688 yards and five touchdowns. He also has returned two punts for touchdowns.

Louisiana Tech at No. 11 LSU (-25, 46.5)

The Bulldogs played Boise State very tough last time out, but they have three starters for sure out and nine more questionable for this one. One of those for sure out is the team’s best defensive player, safety Antonio Baker.

LSU has the nation’s longest non-conference winning streak at 22, hasn’t lost at home during homecoming since 2000 and has won 24 in a row against in-state foes. But the Tigers did lose starting RB Charles Scott for the season to injury last week. QB Jordan Jefferson says he thinks he will play despite also getting hurt against Alabama.

No. 12 Houston at Central Florida (+4.5, 62.5)

Is Houston lucky or good in the wake of that miracle against Tulsa last week? QB Case Keenum could have huge numbers against a UCF secondary which was torched for 470 by Colt McCoy last week.

The Knights, who are 6-2 ATS this season (just like Houston), are expecting starting QB Brett Hodges and RB Brynn Harvey to play Saturday after both sat out injured against Texas last week.

No. 15 Miami at North Carolina (+3.5, 42)

The Hurricanes have never won in Chapel Hill and will know by kickoff whether they are still in the running for the ACC title (depends on Georgia Tech result). UM will again be without top linebacker Sean Spence.

Since blowing the FSU game, North Carolina has won two in a row with impressive defense. And the Heels are averaging nearly 194 yards rushing per game in the past three but lost starting RB Shaun Draughn on his first carry vs. Duke. Ryan Houston picked up the load, rushing for 164 yards and will start.

Arizona State at No. 16 Oregon (-17.5, 48)

ASU, which has lost three in a row (2-1 ATS) turns to true freshman Brock Osweiler as the starting QB. It’s his first start, but he has seen action in many games and played the second half against USC last week.

LeGarrette Blount is back for the Ducks, but he isn’t expected to get many carries with LaMichael James’ emergence. ASU has the No. 6 run defense in the country, but the Sun Devils have lost the past four meetings in this series.

Indiana at No. 17 Penn State (-25, 51.5)

Despite being 0-3 on the road in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers were in position to win all three (Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa). However, top cornerback and kickoff returner Ray Fisher is out again this week.

The Nittany Lions have never lost to Indiana and won by 27 last year. Of PSU’s six home wins in the series, only one has been decided by fewer than 14 points. The Lions also have won nine home finales in a row.

Texas Tech at No. 18 Oklahoma State (-4, 60)

Taylor Potts is expected to start for the Red Raiders at quarterback, with former starter Steven Sheffield not quite 100 percent back from injury. TTU’s defense has 30 sacks, fourth in the county. The Red Raiders are 2-3 after a bye week under coach Mike Leach.

Oklahoma State’s offensive line is tied for the national lead with only four sacks allowed this season, and the Cowboys lead the Big 12 in rushing. The home team has won the past seven in the series.

No. 19 Arizona at California (-2, 55.5)

Arizona is tied with Oklahoma State for fewest sacks allowed with four and Cal has struggled to pressure the opposing QB this season. Star Wildcats RB Nic Grigsby is questionable after not playing last week.

Cal as a favorite is a bit of a surprise considering star RB Jahvid Best is sidelined. Backup Shane Vereen has been pretty good when starting. He’s posted 104 total yards per game in his four career starts.

Michigan at No. 20 Wisconsin (-8.5, 55)

The Wolverines have lost three in a row (0-3 ATS) and don’t have a road win yet this year. QB Tate Forcier only has two total TDs in the current losing streak and has been sacked 12 times. UM is 21-5-1 in Madison all-time.

The Badgers are 5-0 this season in games decided by eight points or less. Wisconsin star RB John Clay expects to play after leaving last week’s game against Indiana. The Badgers lead the conference with 208.8 rushing yards per game.

No. 21 Virginia Tech at Maryland (+17.5, 48)

The Hokies have won four in a row in this series, including 23-13 last year. Might Tech overlook the Terps? Maryland is the first team with a losing record that the Hokies have faced this year.

The Terps are sliding and may have to trot out sophomore quarterback Jamarr Robinson for his first career start with senior Chris Turner questionable with a knee injury. Coach Ralph Friedgen said Robinson would see time regardless.

No. 22 BYU at New Mexico (+26.5, 56.5)

The Cougars are 4-0 in this series under coach Bronco Mendenhall and haven’t lost in Albuquerque since 1980. BYU leads the nation in third-down conversions (59.5 percent).

UNM hasn’t beaten a ranked team at home since 1994 but did stay within 18 against BYU last year and the past four in Albuquerque have been decided by just 17 points. The Lobos, who have lost 13 games in a row, also were only down 10 at the half against Utah last week.

No. 25 Auburn at Georgia (-4, 57.5)

Auburn should be able to protect the ball, as Georgia has only six takeaways this season, worst in the nation. The Tigers can score as fast as anyone as Auburn has 21 TD drives of two minutes or less this season, second nationally to Houston's 22.

The Dawgs have won three in a row in the series but haven’t won four straight since 1948. Georgia often shoots itself in the foot, as it is tied with Texas Tech as the most penalized team in the nation.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Fri. POD


West Virginia at Cincinnati
The Bearcats look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 conference games. Cincinnati is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Bearcats favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-9).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, November 13

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Tips and Trends
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West Virginia at Cincinnati [ESPN2 | 8:00 PM ET]

West Virginia: West Virginia will be playing only their 2nd game as an underdog this year. The Mountaineers have lost 6 of their last 7 games ATS. West Virginia has been held under 20 points in their 2 most recent games. Part of the problem is the health of QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine. Devine will be counted on to lead this offense on clock eating drives, to keep the potent Bearcats offense off the field. However, Devine has struggled of late, as he's been held under 100 YDS rushing combined in his past two starts. This pass defense needs to play better, as they have the 3rd worst passing defense in the Big East.

West Virginia is 1-5 ATS last 6 conference games.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - DL Chris Neild (back) is questionable.
DB Sidney Glover (shoulder) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

Cincinnati (-9.5, O/U 55): Undefeated Bearcats put their championship hopes on the line tonight against a nationally ranked team. A big reason they are undefeated is their offense (3rd nationally with 482 YPG; 5th nationally with 40 PPG) Freshman QB Zach Collaros has filled in admirably for Tony Pike, as he's accounted for 14 TDs to only 1 turnover. The Bearcats defense has only allowed 2 teams to score more than 20 points this year. This is the first home game this year the Bearcats aren't double digit favorites.

Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS last 10 conference games.
Under is 10-4 last 14 home games.

Key Injuries - QB Tony Pike (forearm) is probable.
LB Robby Armstrong (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (OVER - Total of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Saturday, November 14

Rest of the card

-- Boston College failed to cover its last five games as an ACC road fave; they're 0-3 on road this season, scoring 12.3 ppg. Virginia lost three in a row, by 25-11-35 points; they're 2-3 as an underdog.
-- Northwestern covered its last three road games. Illinois won last two games, scoring 38-35 points, after losing previous five games (11.8 ppg); four of last five Illini games stayed under.
-- Syracuse lost four of its last five games; their last five losses are all by 14+ points; Orange are 1-1 as road dogs (7-28/10-37). Louisville lost six of its last eight games; they're 1-0 as a favorite this year.
-- Michigan lost last five games vs I-A opponents, allowing 33 ppg; the Wolverines are 0-3 on road, losing by 6-2-25 points. Wisconsin scored 37-31 points in winning last two games; they're 2-4 as a favorite.
-- Indiana lost last three games by 1-18-3 points; they covered three of last four games. Penn State covered four of last five games as a favorite. Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Indiana games.

-- Florida State QB Ponder (shoulder) is out; Seminoles lost three games in row to Wake Forest. FSU lost four of last six games. Wake lost its last four games, the last three all by three or less points.
-- Underdog is 7-3 vs spread in Kentucky-Vanderbilt games; Wildcats are 2-1 away from home, 2-2 as favorite. Vandy lost its last six games, with four of the six by 16+ points.
-- Baylor freshman QB Florence was 32-43/427 in upset win at Mizzou last week; Bears 1-3 at home vs I-A foes this season, losing by 8-27-10 points. Texas covered three of its last four games.
-- Maryland lost its last four games but covered four of last five; they're 1-3 at home vs I-A teams, losing by 1-21-11 points. Virginia Tech is 1-2 in last three games, scoring an average of 18.7 ppg.
-- Western Michigan lost three of last four games, with only win by FG in OT vs Buffalo; they're 1-5 on road, 1-1 as favorite. Eastern Michigan is 0-9, 3-6 vs spread, giving up 63-50 points in last two games.

-- New Mexico is 0-9, 2-7 vs spread, 0-3 as home dog; three of their four home games stayed under total. BYU won five of last six games; they're 4-3 as favorite, 3-1 on road (road wins by 1-51-38-10-52 points).
-- UAB won last two games, scoring 38-56 points. Memphis fired its coach this week; they lost last three games, giving up 36-38-56 points. Three of last four UAB games went over the total.
-- Colorado lost four of last six games, giving up 30+ points both wins; Buffs are 0-5 on road, losing by 6-16-11-24-14 points. Iowa St. scored total of 27 points in last three games; they're 3-1 as a favorite.
-- Washington State is awful, losing last six games, but they're 3-1 vs the spread in last four games, 2-2 as home dog. UCLA snapped 5-game skid with 24-23 win vs Washington, when they were minus-4 in turnovers.
-- Idaho is 7-3 but lost to Fresno last week when QB Enderle (shoulder) sat game out; Vandals are 6-2 as an underdog this year. Boise State is 6-2 as favorite this year, 3-0 at home. Over is 5-2 in last seven Idaho tilts.

-- Erratic UTEP lost three of last four games, giving up 35 ppg in losses; they're 2-2 as dog this year. SMU is 0-2 as favorite; they're bowl eligible if they win here. Five of last seven UTEP games went over total.
-- Oregon is 5-0 at home, 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 2-7-39-46-27 points; four of their last five games went over total. Arizona State lost last three games, by 19-2-5 points; they're 3-1 as an underdog.
-- Kansas State is atop Big 12 North, winning three of last four games; they're 5-1 vs spread in last six, 1-1 as favorite. Missouri lost four of its last five games, giving up 38 ppg in its last three losses.
-- Texas A&M scored 40.3 ppg in last three games, but they've given up 30+ in five of last six; Aggies are 2-0 as underdog. Oklahoma is 5-4 after 10-3 loss at Nebraska where they missed three FGs (2-4-1 as favorite).
-- San Jose State is 0-7 vs I-A opponents, giving up 49.3 ppg last three games, losing last two 45-7/62-7. Four of their last five games went over total. Utah State is 1-7 vs I-A opponents, 1-2 as a favorite.

-- Nevada won last six games (4-2 vs spread), running ball for average of 418.8 ypg in those games; they're 3-1 as home favorite. Fresno won last five games; they're 2-1 as underdog. Last three Fresno tilts went under.
-- Rice is 0-9, Tulane 3-6 after they upset UTEP in OT last week; Owls are 1-5 vs spread in last five games, with last four going over total. Wave is 2-6 as an underdog, but an 0-9 team as a favorite?
-- Air Force is 3-1-1 as favorite, but they're off 35-7 rivalry win against Army last week and they have BYU up next, so letdown possible here against UNLV squad that is 2-4 against spread as an underdog.
-- South Carolina is fading late in year again, losing three of its last four games, with all three losses by 14+ points; Gamecocks are 4-2 as a dog this year, are only team that didn't vote Tebow all-SEC last summer.
-- Mississippi State covered four of last five games as underdog; three of their last four games stayed under total. Alabama is off emotional LSU win; they're 2-0 as road favorite, winning by 18-19 points.

-- Marshall is 2-0 as favorite this year, winning by 20-21 points; they're 6-1 vs spread in last seven games, with last seven games staying under total. Southern Miss is 0-4 on road, losing by 7-13-2-7 points.
-- Houston allowed 88 points in last two games, won both anyway; they won last five games, scoring 41.8 ppg, are 3-2 as favorite, 1-2 on road. UCF covered three of four games as an underdog this season.
-- Louisiana Tech is just 6-27 vs spread in last 33 games as a road dog. LSU is in Alabama/Ole Miss sandwich; Tigers covered three of last four as a favorite. Tech scored 69 points in last two games, still lost both.
-- Wyoming scored total of 10 points in losing last three games; Pokes were outscored 50-0 in second half of those games. Wyoming is 4-2-1 as an underdog this year. San Diego State is 1-2 as favorite in '09.
-- New Mexico State lost last three games, outscored 124-10; they're 2-5 vs spread as an underdog. Hawai'i snapped six-game skid last week, but they've still given up average of 39.4 ppg in last five games.

-- Arkansas State is 1-6 vs I-A opponents, 1-2 as favorite, but they're a road favorite at Florida Atlantic team with horrible special teams that is 2-6, giving up average of 36.4 ppg in their last five games.
-- Western Kentucky fired its coach this week; they're 0-9, covering one of last five games, with all four road games going over total. UL-Monroe is 3-0 as a favorite this year, winning those games by 13-6-27 points.
-- Troy won last seven games since 31-14/56-6 losses to open season-- Trojans are 1-1 as a dog- they scored 40+ points in last four games, but step way up in class here. All five Arkansas wins are by 17+ points.
-- North Texas lost seven of last eight games; they lost last three on road, allowing 47 ppg. FIU is 2-7 this year, 1-1 when favored- they turned the ball over eight times in their last two games (-4).
-- UL-Lafayette is 3-2 as underdog in '09; three of their last five games were decided by four or less points. Middle Tennessee scored 62-27-48 points in winning last three games; they're 4-0 vs spread when favored.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, November 14

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Game of day: Florida at South Carolina
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Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks (+17.5, 42.5)

Line movement

The game opened up at -15 in favor of the Gators, dropped to 14.5 early at a lot of books and has since cruised upwards to 17.5, where the line currently stands. The total has held steady in the 43 to 42.5 points range.

Weather

The conditions will be ideal with temperatures in the mid-70s.

Injuries

Florida starting linebacker Brandon Hicks is questionable with a hamstring injury. South Carolina’s defense is suffering with safety Chris Culliver (shoulder) and defensive linemen Cliff Matthews (shoulder) and Devin Taylor (sternum) all questionable.

Gators trying not to look ahead

Despite the flurry of bad press surrounding the wishy-washy suspension of linebacker Brandon Spikes last week, the constant wear and tear of the SEC and the impending conference title game rematch with Alabama, Florida head coach Urban Meyer insists his team is still focused on the regular season.

“It’s been the year of stuff,” Meyer said. “What does stuff do to bad families? It rips them apart. Bad teams? It rips them apart. What’s it do to solid teams and solid families? It gets them a little closer. I’m proud to say this is a very solid family, a very solid team.”

That solidarity was not overly apparent last week against SEC bottom-feeder Vanderbilt. Although they won 27-3, the Gators (9-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) sputtered on offense.

Florida racked up 375 yards, but converted just 4-of-13 (31 percent) third-down attempts in the victory over the Commodores. Compare that to 7-of-13 against a more competitive Georgia football team on Oct. 31 in which the Gators scored 41 points on just 374 yards of total offense.

"You'd like to put the ball in the end zone more and not kick field goals," said Tim Tebow after the Vanderbilt game.

The under is 6-2 this season for Florida.

Spurrier spurned by his offense

Over the last two seasons, South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier has handed over much of the play-calling duties on offense to his son, Steve Spurrier, Jr. But with the Gamecocks (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) looking down the barrel of another frustrating finish, the Ole Ball Coach is looking to reassume control.

Citing last week’s 33-16 lackluster loss to Arkansas, Spurrier feels the team is too conservative on offense and thinks his influence may help avoid a late slide like past seasons, in which South Carolina lost three straight and five straight in 2007.

“I call most of the plays and I may be the principle playcaller now with suggestions from the other coaches,” Spurrier said. “That’s about how we’ve been doing it.”

The Gamecocks have lost two straight, rushing for a total of just 118 yards combined in the two losses. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games (3-3 SU).

Swampy series

Steve Spurrier has not fared well in recent years against his former Gators squad since joining South Carolina in 2005. Florida has hung 50-plus points on the Gamecocks the last two seasons, easily winning both contests.

In 2006, Florida survived a 17-16 scare and South Carolina won 30-23 in Spurrier’s first year in Columbia.

Overall, since Spurrier’s arrival, South Carolina is 1-3 SU against Florida and has gone 2-2 ATS. In Columbia, the Gamecocks are 1-1 both SU and ATS versus the Gators since 2005.

Trends

Gators are 11-1 ATS in their last twelve road games.

Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games.

The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, November 14

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Game of the night: Utah at TCU
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Utah Utes at Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-20, 47)

Party crashers

Any aspirations of becoming the first mid-major team to play in the national title game will have to be put on hold this weekend for the undefeated TCU Horned Frogs. Sitting fourth in the BCS rankings, the home squad will face their toughest opponent of the year in Utah.

The Utes come in as heavy underdogs, but have history on their side with a 5-1 edge over TCU in this short series. Their lone defeat this year was only by a touchdown to Oregon.

In early October, TCU squeaked by Air Force 20-17. But since then they have made an impression to poll voters by steamrolling through their next four opponents by an average of 38.25 points. One of those games included a 38-7 blowout over BYU, who only had one loss at the time.

Balanced attack

Leading the No. 9 ranked TCU offense is junior quarterback Andy Dalton, who has been nearly mistake free with a 16-3 TD-to-INT ratio. He hasn't put up impressive stats, but in head coach Gary Patterson's system he doesn't need to. The offense spreads the ball out, literally. No one on the team has over 30 receptions, but six players have 12 receptions or more.

Joseph Turner is listed as the starting running back, but in reality he splits the carries with two others. This means that Utah will have to deal with fresh players on every down. Dalton posses a threat on the ground as well, having rushed 335 yards and two TDs.

Utah's defense has been impressive holding opposing offenses to 16.9 points per game, but they'll have to contend with an offense that is averaging nearly 500 yards per game and an offensive line that has only given up eight sacks this season.

Last year however, they did find success against the Horned Frogs. In the first 10 minutes, Utah gave up 10 points, but then shutout TCU from that point on, which was good enough for the 13-10 win.

Freshman Wynn

Head coach Kyle Whittingham is already comparing QB Jordan Wynn to alum Alex Smith, but this may be a bit of stretch considering that the freshman has only played in two games.

Wynn performed decent last week going 18 for 28 and 297 yards for two TDs, but that was against winless New Mexico. The TCU 4-2-5 defense, which ranks third in the nation, is an entirely different entity having only given up 11.2 points per game.

Whittingham's offense is a bit of a carry over from the Urban Meyer days, but the 4-2-5 was designed with keeping such spread schemes in check. The defense only has two linebackers but incorporates three safeties each serving as defensive quarterbacks making reads before the snap.

Early evidence of the success of this defense was seen in 2006, where they held the high powered Texas Tech air attack to only three points. Pure talent seems to be the only solution, as last year Oklahoma was the only team that managed more than two touchdowns against TCU.

The line

The line opened up at -17 in favor of TCU and has since been moved to -20 at most sportsbooks. Utah has only been an underdog one other time this season and it was in its loss to Oregon. At 20 points, this is the largest margin the Utes have been dogged in this decade.

TCU has done an excellent job of covering this season going 6-3 ATS. The Horned Frogs have covered the spread in their last four games and in three of those games they had to deal with a line that was more than three touchdowns.

Last year's line was sharp with TCU as a 2-point favorite. For ATS bettors, the game was decided on Utah's final drive which resulted in the game-winning touchdown.

The Horned Frogs’ only win in this series came in 2005. The game went into overtime and TCU won 23-20. Utah was a 3-point favorite in that game.

Those believing in a huge Utah upset will find great value with the moneyline which is listed at +850. TCU moneyline is at -1300.

The total for the game sits at 47. Both teams have high powered offenses but the last four meeting have gone under the total. Utah and TCU are a cominbed 5-10-3 on the over/under this season.

Weather

A low of 61 is expected in Forth Worth at night with a 20 percent chance of precipatation. South winds (diagonal across the field) of 13 mph are expected.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Sat. POD


Utah at TCU
The Utes look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10 1/2 points or more. Utah is the pick (+20) according to Dunkel, which has TCU favored by only 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Utah (+20).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, November 14

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Tips and Trends
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Florida at South Carolina [CBS | 3:30 PM ET]

Florida (-17.5, O/U 42.5): This is the final road game of the regular season for Florida. This Gators defense has been terrific. In their last 3 road conference games, they've combined to give up 29 PTS. All 3 road conference games went UNDER the posted total. The Gators have played to the UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games. This Gator offense is struggling a bit, as they score 28 PPG. That is 17 PPG less than last year. Gators are only scoring a TD in the red zone 30% of the time this year. Q Tim Tebow is a touchdown machine, and will need to be efficient today when it counts most.

Florida is 10-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a road favorite.

Key Injuries - LB Brandon Hicks (hamstring) is questionable.
OL Shawn Schmieder (flu) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

South Carolina: South Carolina is undefeated at home, winning all 4 games. Coach Spurrier will be facing his old team, and will need his offense to step up in order to be competitive today. South Carolina hasn't score 20 points or more since Oct. 10th. QB Stephen Garcia leads a passing game that's throw for more than 300 YDS in 3 consecutive games. This rushing attack is the worst in the SEC. South Carolina is playing for the 10th consecutive week.

South Carolina is 5-1 ATS last 6 games as an underdog more than 10.5.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - DE Devin Taylor (sternum) is questionable.
S Chris Culliver (shoulder) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 10



Iowa at Ohio State [ABC | 3:30 PM ET]

Iowa: The bad news for Iowa fans is the loss of QB Ricky Stanzi. He was the leader of this team, and played the biggest role in his teams success this season. The good news is the success the Hawkeyes have had on the road. Iowa has won all 4 road games this year, going 4-0 ATS. In those 4 games, they gave up a total of 36 points. Redshirt freshman QB James Vandenberg has big shoes to fill. He will lean on a running game that needs to play better. Iowa's rush offense has been held under 100 YDS rushing in 3 of its last 5 games.

Iowa is 10-1 ATS last 11 road games.
Under is 22-5-1 last 28 road games.

Key Injuries - QB Ricky Stanzi (leg) is out.
DB Brett Greenwood (shoulder) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 7

Ohio State (-16.5, O/U 37.5): Ohio St. has covered 8 of their last 9 games ATS. They've been great at home this year, and are playing their best football of the season. The winner of todays game is in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes defense leads this team, as they've only allowed 2 opponents to score 20 points or more all season. This defense also has 3 shutouts to their credit. Ohio St. has only allowed 8 TDs in the past 35 quarters. QB Terrelle Pryor leads an offense that has averaged 270 rushing YDS per game over it's past 3 games.

Ohio State is 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Favorite is 8-0 ATS last 8 meetings in this series.

Key Injuries - OL Mike Adams (knee) is questionable.
LB Andrew Sweat (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side of the Day)


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Sun. POD


East Carolina at Tulsa
The Pirates look to build on their 14-6 ATS record in their last 20 conference games. East Carolina is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has Tulsa favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+5).