NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (11/3 - 11/8)

[pm530]

NCAAF


Saturday, November 7

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Saturday's SEC showdown: LSU at Alabama
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LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-7.5, 40)

In a battle of Top 10 SEC powers, the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide will square off in Tuscaloosa. The game will likely decide the West division in the conference for the fourth time in the last five years. Each head coach has won a BCS title at LSU but Nick Saban's return to the conference at Alabama in 2007 has taken this rivalry to another level.

LSU

Despite their status as the ninth-ranked team in the nation, the jury is clearly still out on the 2009 Tigers. LSU has defeated only one team (Auburn) this season that currently has a winning record. With the nation's 100th-ranked total offense that is last in the conference, LSU will be hard pressed to move the football on Alabama nose guard Terrance "Mount" Cody and the Crimson Tide defense.

However, the Tigers do excel in some other key areas that could enable LSU to pull the upset. LSU is seventh in the nation in scoring defense. Only two foes have been able to score more than 13 points on the club's stop unit. LSU is a sound team (leads SEC in turnover margin) that can also strike on special teams with the country's sixth best punt return average.

LSU head coach Les Miles is anticipating a defensive slug fest.

"I think that both defenses are very good and the structures are sound and solid," Miles said. "They play aggressively, and they make tackles. I enjoy watching good college football, and I think certainly that's what will be played this Saturday."

Alabama

With two weeks of preparation for this game, third-ranked Alabama is hoping for a big effort after a sluggish victory over Tennessee two weeks ago. After rolling to at least 34 points in each of their first five games, the Tide's offense has averaged only 18 points per game in their last three outings. Heisman candidate Mark Ingram eclipsed the 1,000 yard plateau against the Vols but first-year starting QB Greg McElroy hasn't thrown a touchdown in Alabama's last three contests.

While Alabama hasn't played its best in recent weeks, Saban is sticking with his basic philosophy.

"I know it's a result world, but great competitors don't focus on the results they focus on what they need to do to get the results," the Alabama coach said. "Sometimes that's difficult to do with a lot of the external things that we live with, but that's the most important thing to playing your best. Maybe we were affected by that a little bit in the last couple of games."

The defense is in the top five nationally in total, scoring and rushing defense.

Trends

The home team has covered only once in the series since 1996. Visiting squads are 11-1-1 ATS during this stretch. LSU is 7-2 in the series in this decade with a 4-0 mark in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is 20-0 (14-6 ATS) in the regular season since the beginning of 2008. LSU is 9-19-3 ATS in its last 32 games dating back to the fourth game of the 2007 season. The Tigers are 6-2 to the under this season. Alabama is 10-2 to the under in its last 12 SEC games.

Weather

The forecast calls for sunny skies with a high of 76 degrees in Tuscaloosa, AL.

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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Sat. POD


Ohio State at Penn State
The Buckeyes look to take advantage of a Penn State team that is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games as a home favorite between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Ohio State is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Buckeyes favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+4).

[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Saturday's games

Top games

Georgia Tech won, covered last six games; they're 4-1 vs spread as faves this year, 1-1 at home- they outscored last two foes 49-6 on second half, as running game takes its toll. Wake Forest lost last three games, last two by total of four points; they're 0-3 on road, losing by 3-35-3. Deacons are 1-2 as dog, 0-2 on road- they lost 28-27 at home to Miami last week after leading 17-0. Underdog covered four of last five series games.

Duke becomes bowl eligible with win here; they've won last three games, is 3-1 as underdog this year, with one loss by more than 8 points. UNC is 1-3 vs spread as favorite this year, with one of three I-A wins by more than three points (31-17, ECU). ACC home favorites are 7-11 vs spread. Carolina won five in row, 11 of last 12 in series, but Duke covered three of last four. Three of Tar Heels' last four games stayed under the total.

South Carolina lost four of last five visits to Arkansas; favorites are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. Razorbacks are 1-4 in SEC, giving up an average of 32 ppg; they're 0-2 vs spread as favorite this year. SEC home favorites are 6-14 vs spread in '09. Gamecocks scored total of 33 points in last three games, but they're 4-1 vs spread as dog this season, with losses by 4-14-18 points. Over is 3-0 in Arkansas home games.

Iowa State gets QB Arnaud back here; they're 5-2 vs spread in last seven games, 2-2 as underdog, but they scored total of 19 points in last couple games, beating Nebraska 9-7 in game they were +8 in turnovers. OSU is 2-0 on road (36-31 A&M/34-7 Baylor); they're 3-3 as favorite this year. Under is 4-1-1 in Cyclones' last six games. Favorites covered the last five series games, with Cowboys losing last two visits here, 37-10/28-14.

Navy lost 11 of last 12 games with Notre Dame, but is 7-5 vs spread in those games; Middies won five of last six games- they're 1-1 as dog this year- four of their last five games were decided by exactly three points. Notre Dame won five of last six games but failed to cover six games in a row as a favorite. After going 6-22 passing at Pitt, Middies are 15-28 in air in last six games combined. Three of last four Navy games went over/

Favorite is 5-1-2 vs spread in last eight LSU-Alabama series; Tigers won their last four visits here, and are 3-0 on road this year, with wins by 8-4-7 points. Alabama held five of last six opponents to 19 or less points; they're 5-3 vs spread as favorite, 2-0 as single digit favorite. SEC home favorites are 6-14 vs spread. Last four LSU games, four of last five Bama games stayed under the total. Bama is just 12 for last 44 on third down.

Kansas lost last three games, giving up 34-35-42 points, outscored 49-14 in second half of last two games; Jayhawks won last three series games, scoring 40.3 ppg; their 30-24 win in last visit here snapped a five-game skid in Little Apple. K-State won two Big 12 home games 62-14/20-6; they've run two kicks back for TDs in the last three games. Big 12 home underdogs are 4-6 vs spread. Over is 3-1 in last four K-State games.

Oklahoma won last four games vs Nebraska by average score of 36-15; Sooners' three losses this year are by 1-1-3 points- none of their wins are by less than 12. Oklahoma is 2-3-1 vs spread as favorite. Huskers scored total of 27 points in last three games; their '09 losses are by 1-21-2 pts. Seven of eight Nebraska games, six of seven Oklahoma games went under the total. Huskers didn't scored a second half point in last two games.

Favorite is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 Ohio State-Penn State games; OSU is 2-4 in last six visits to Happy Valley- they're 7-1 vs spread in last eight games, winning last two games 38-7/45-0 since losing at Purdue in their last road game. Penn State outscored last four opponents 61-3 in second half; they're 1-4 vs spread as home favorite this season. Under is 6-1-1 in Penn State games. Big 11 home favorites are 9-9 vs spread this season.

Fresno State won its four games over Idaho by an average score of 39-16, but those Vandals aren't these Vandals; Idaho is 7-2, and was underdog in seven of nine games. Idaho allowed 706 rushing yards, 104 points in last two games, as defense wears down, but they're 4-0 at home in the Kibbie Dome this year (2-0 as home dog). Fresno won last four games, winning 42-17 at Hawai'i, 34-3 at New Mexico State; they're 3-1 as a favorite.

Oregon State won eight of last ten against Cal, winning last four visits to Berkeley (dogs 4-0 vs spread); Beavers won three of last four games, are 1-1 as dog this year- they scored an average of 32 ppg in last five games. Cal scored 39 ppg in winning last three games; they're 2-4 vs spread as underdog, 1-1 at home. Pac-10 home favorites are 7-7 against the spread so far this season. Over is 3-1-1 in Oregon State's last five games.

Oregon won seven games in row, scoring 42+ points in four of last five games; Ducks are 4-1 vs spread as favorite, 2-0 on road- they won seven in row over Stanford (6-1 vs spread) winning last three visits to Farm by 24-24-3 points, but Oregon is on upset alert with road game after upset of USC last week. Stanford won, covered all four home games; they are 1-2 as dog in '09. Pac-10 home underdogs are 6-5 against the spread.

Florida State's longtime defensive coordinator Andrews announced he is retiring this week; not sure what effect that has on a young FSU defense that gave up 39.3 ppg in last three games. Seminoles are 2-0 as underdog this year, winning both games SU- their '09 losses are by 4-10-7-5 pts. Clemson is 3-2 as favorite; they played I-AA team last week; Tigers are 3-1 in last four series games. FSU was favored in last 12 series games.

USC is on road for 4th time in five weeks, at Arizona State squad that is 2-1 as a dog this year, but lost last nine series games (2-6-1 vs spread) to Trojans. USC has been favored in every '09 game but is 1-6 vs spread in last seven; they're 1-4 as road fave, losing in Seattle, Eugene, winning the other three by 3-27-7. Under is 5-0-1 in last six ASU games, but USC's last three went over the total. Pac-10 home underdogs are 6-5 vs spread.

Other games

-- Michigan State lost last two games, doesn't have I-A win by 11+ pts. Four of their last five games stayed under total. Big 11 home favorites are 7-11 out of conference; MAC road dogs are 16-9.
-- Cincinnati's last three wins are by 17+ points; five of their last six games stayed under. UConn is 4-0 vs spread as an underdog this season. Big East home favorites are 3-4 in league play.
-- Pitt won its last four games; they're 2-1 as a favorite in '09. Syracuse lost 28-7 at Penn State in its only previous road game this year. Last three Syracuse games, three of last four Pitt games stayed under total.
-- Underdog covered nine of last 11 Northwestern-Iowa games, with the dog winning last three meetings SU; Wildcats are 2-2 as dog, with losses by 3-11-10-21 points. Hawkeyes are 3-2 as a favorite.
-- Illinois is 1-4 vs spread as an underdog, with one INT in its last six games. Minnesota is 4-1 when it allows 24 or less points; they gave up 72 in last two games; six of their last seven games went over total.

-- West Virginia is 1-5 vs spread in last six games, with only one '09 win by more than 17 points. Louisville is 2-4 as an underdog, 1-3 away from home. West Virginia plays unbeaten Cincinnati on ESPN next Friday.
-- NC State lost last four games, allowing 146 points in last three- their last five games went over total. Maryland lost three in row, scoring total of 22 points in last two. ACC home favorites are 7-11 against spread.
-- Indiana lost five of last six games, even though they led last three tilts at half by 6-11-14 points; they're 4-3 as the dog, 1-1 at home. Badgers are 1-1 on road this season (31-28 Minnesota/13-31 Ohio State).
-- Baylor lost its last four games, all by 10+ points; they're 1-4-1 vs the spread in last six games. Last five Bear games stayed under total. Big 12 home underdogs are 4-6. Missouri is 2-1 as a favorite this year.
-- Florida is in Georgia/South Carolina sandiwch; LB Spikes won't play here vs Vanderbilt team that lost last five games (1-4 vs spread). Under is 6-2 in Commodores' last eight games, 5-1 in Florida's last six.

-- BYU is 3-3 as favorite this year, with road wins by 51-38-10 points. Wyoming scored 10-0-0-10 in its four losses; they're 4-1-1 vs spread as a dog this year. MWC home underdogs are 4-5 against spread.
-- Rice is 0-8 this year (1-7 vs spread); they're 0-4 as home dog, losing at home by 19-17-49-42 points. SMU lost only time it was favored in '09; they have one win this season by more than eight points.
-- Erratic UTEP lost three of four times they were favored this year, are 2-2 SU when underdog; they're -6 in turnovers last three games. Tulane lost last four games by 21-28-37-42 points; they're 1-6 as underdog.
--Central Florida had short week after last-minute win on Sunday night. C-USA road dogs are 6-10 out of league. Texas won last two games by combined score of 82-21. Big 12 home favorites are 12-9 vs spread.
-- Underdog won five of last six Kent-Akron games SU; Flashes won last three games, covered last six- they held last three foes under 300 yards of offense. Akron lost its last six games (1-5 against spread).

-- Air Force is 2-1-1 as favorite this year, Army 2-4 as dog, 1-2 on road. Falcons scored 17 or less points in four of last five games. Five of last six Army games stayed under total. MWC home faves are 2-5 vs spread.
-- TCU needs to win by as much as possible so they don't slip in BCS standings; they won last three games by combined score of 123-13. San Diego State won three of last four games, are 4-0 vs spread as a dog.
-- Utah won last five games but covered one of last five, with all five of games staying under total. New Mexico is 0-8 this year, 2-6 vs spread. MWC home favorites are 4-6 vs spread in league play.
-- Washington State lost last five games but covered five of last six due to big spreads they get; they've covered three games this year they lost by 21+ points. Arizona is 1-3 against the spread as a favorite.
-- UCLA lost last five games, giving up 32.7 ppg in last three; they're 1-1 as favorite in '09. Washington had last week off after losing four of last five games. Huskies are 4-3 against the spread as an underdog in '09.

-- Texas A&M won last two games by 22-25 points after losing 62-14 at K-State; they're 3-2 as a favorite. Over is 5-1-1 in Aggies' last seven tilts. Colorado lost four of last five games, scoring 6-17 pts last two games.
-- Miami's last two games were decided by total of four points; they are 2-3 as favorite this year. Virginia is 3-0 vs spread on road, losing 37-34 at So Miss. Four of last five Virginia games stayed under the total.
-- Memphis is 1-6 vs I-A teams; they're 1-4 vs spread as dog. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. SEC home favorites are 10-8 vs spread out of conference; C-USA road underdogs are 6-10.
-- Houston won, covered all four games since losing at UTEP; they're 3-1 as favorite this year. Tulsa lost last three games by 7-4-14 points' they're 1-1 as underdog. C-USA home underdogs are 5-8 against the spread.
-- Michigan lost last four games vs I-A teams; they have zero takeaways in last three games, are -12 in turnovers last four games. Purdue is 3-2 as underdog this year. Big 11 home favorites are 9-9 against spread.
-- UNLV lost five of last six games, with last four losses by 20+ points. Colorado State lost last six games, allowing 31+ points in five of the six. Under is 4-1-1 in Rams' last six games. MWC home sides are 8-11.

-- Utah State covered six of last eight games but is just 1-6 vs I-A teams, beating La Tech 23-21 at home. Aggies are 0-5 on road; they're 1-5 as a road favorite since '01. Hawai'i lost last six games (2-4 vs spread).
-- Florida Atlantic's awful kicking game cost them in home loss last week three of their last four games went over total. UAB is 0-4 this year when they score less than 30 points. C-USA non-league home faves are 3-5.
-- North Texas snapped six-game skid with 68-49 home win last week; their last seven games went over total. UL-Monroe allowed 35+ points in three of last four games. Sun Belt home teams are 9-10 vs spread.
-- Western Kentucky is Sun Belt doormat, giving up 62-68 points in last two games; they're 2-5 vs spread as underdog, with last four games over total. Troy State won last six games, covering five of them.
-- Home side won last seven UL-Lafayette-Arkansas State games; ULL lost last three visits here by 31-3-6 points. State lost five of last six tilts; they're 1-1 as a favorite. Last three ASU games stayed under total.
-- Middle Tennessee won five of last seven games; they're 3-0 vs spread as a favorite. Florida International split last four games; they scored 30+ points in four of last six. Sun Belt home favorites are 8-7 vs spread.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, Novembewr 7

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Tips and Trends
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LSU at Alabama [CFB | 3:30 PM ET]

LSU: The Tigers are 7-1 SU, with it's lone loss to Florida. Since that loss, they have outscored their opposition 73-10. This Tigers defense is remarkable, as they've only allowed more than 13 points 1 time all season. 6 of the 7 games LSU has played have gone UNDER the posted total. LB Kelvin Sheppard leads LSU in tackles with 70 tackles. LSU will look to RB Charles Scott to move the chains. They ran for more than 265 YDS against their last opponent, Tulane. The Tigers have won the last four meetings in Tuscaloosa.

Road team is 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
Under is 9-2 in LSU's last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points

Key Injuries - P Derek Helton (hip) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 10

Alabama (-7.5, O/U 40): Top 10 showdown between two teams that control their destiny to the BCS Title game. Alabama comes off their bye week at the perfect time. The Tide have lost their last two games ATS, including a near loss to Tennessee in their last game. QB Greg McElroy leads this Tide offense, an offense that is in decline. 22, 20, and 12 are the points scored by this Tide offense over the past 3 weeks. An effective passing game will open up holes for RB Mark Ingram. Ingram leads the SEC with 125 yards per game (6.6 per carry average) and eight touchdowns. The strength of this team is their defense, which allows 11.4 points per game. Alabama will be looking to beat LSU at home for the first time since 1999.

Alabama is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.
Under is 7-1 in last 8 conference games.

Key Injuries - TE Colin Peek (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (UNDER - Total of the Day)


Ohio State at Penn State [3:30 PM ET]

Ohio St: The Buckeyes are 6-2 overall, and an impressive 7-1 ATS. The visitor has won the last two meetings between these teams. The Buckeyes are led by QB Terrelle Pryor, who spurned Penn St. before signing with Ohio St. Pryor directs an offense that leads the Big Ten in scoring at 30 PPG. RB Dan Herron is healthy, and he makes this offense even more diverse. The Buckeyes will continue to depend on their opportunistic defense to win games. The Buckeyes are 2nd in the Big Ten in forced turnovers, with 24 on the season. The Buckeyes will be playing only their 3rd road game of the season

Ohio St is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.
Under is 4-0 in last 4 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - (PK) Aaron Pettrey (knee) is out.
(LT) Mike Adams (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 13.

Penn St (-5, O/U 39): Penn State will play its 300th (241-58) game in Beaver Stadium on Saturday. Since losing to Iowa, Penn St. has won 5 straight games, also winning ATS in all 5. The Nittany Lions have scored 34 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. This dynamic offense is led by QB Daryll Clark, who can beat you with his arm or feet. His main targets are WR Derek Moye and Chaz Powell. This defense is anchored by LB Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee, as well as DT Jared Odrick. Only once this season has Penn St. given up more than 20 points. That was to Iowa, where they gave up 21 points in their lone loss of the season.

Home team is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Penn St is 4-0 ATS in last 4 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - RB Stephfon Green (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)


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