NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (10/27 - 11/1)

[pm530]

NCAAF
Dunkel Index


UPDATE: Friday's Dunkel with write-up

West Virginia at South Florida
The Bulls look to take advantage of a West Virginia team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as a favorite. South Florida is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+3).

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30

Game 105-106: West Virginia at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 95.230; South Florida 94.900
Dunkel Line: Even; 52
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+3); Over

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[pm530]

NCAAF
Write-up


UPDATE: Additional games

Other games

-- Rutgers won five of last six games, covered eight of last 10 as road dog visiting UConn squad that was in Miami Monday for Howard's funeral. Huskies are 6-1 vs spread this season, 2-0 when favored.

-- Cincinnati has 13 INTs in last seven games, has +11 TO ratio; they've outscored last three opponents 51-16 in second half. Four of their last five games stayed under total. Syracuse is 2-2 as a home dog.

-- Two of Ohio U's three road wins were in OT; they've got injury issues at QB. Ball State is just 1-7; five of their last seven games were decided by seven or less points. MAC home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread.

-- Iowa is missing best RB, a starting OG; only one of its eight wins this year is by more than 11 points. Indiana covered five of last seven games; they're 3-1 as road dog. Big 11 home favorites are 7-9 vs the spread.

-- Purdue won its last two games, Wisconsin lost its last two, scoring 13-10 points; Badgers are 1-3 vs spread as favorite in '09. Purdue allowed 73 points in 2 road tilts. Five of last six Boiler games stayed under total.

-- Akron lost last five games, four by 12+ points; they're 2-2 as road dog in '09, with three road losses by 14+. Underdog is 5-1 vs spread in '09 in Northern Illinois games this year. Huskies are 1-3 as a favorite.

-- Ohio State should be able to name score vs New Mexico State squad that got waxed at home by Fresno last week. Aggies are 1-3 vs spread in last four games. Buckeyes have Penn State next, won't show everything.

-- Georgia Tech won, covered last five games; they're 3-1 as favorite this year, 2-0 at home. ACC faves are 9-7 vs spread out of conference, 3-1 on road; SEC dogs are 2-2. Six of last seven Vandy games stayed under.

-- 0-7 Eastern Michigan is 2-5 vs spread this year. MAC road dogs are 14-8 vs spread in non-league games. Arkansas is 2-4 in its ast six games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five. SEC home favorites are 9-7.

-- Western Michigan is 1-3 as underdog in '09' they allowed 472 yards a game in last three games. Kent covered its last five games; they're 2-0 as a favorite this season, but are just 26-108 on third down conversions.

-- Baylor lost last three games, by 26-14-27 points, but Nebraska lost its last two, scoring total of 17 points- they had seven points last week but turned ball over eight times. Six of last seven Husker tilts stayed under.

-- SMU is 4-1 vs spread as dog this year; four of its last six games were decided by seven or less points. Tulsa lost last two games but is 3-1 vs spread as a favorite. Last six Tulsa games stayed under the total.

-- UAB lost five of last six games, is 0-4 as road dog, losing away games by average of 26 points. Average total in last five UTEP games is 65.4. Favorites are 14-10 vs spread in C-USA games, 7-5 at home.

-- San Jose State is 0-5 vs I-A teams and 0-3 vs spread as a road dog this year. Boise State is 5-1 vs spread, 2-0 as home favorite. Spartans gave up 576 rushing yards in last two games. WAC home faves are 7-2.

-- Miami OH is 0-8 but covered three of last four games; opponents have outscored them 159-31 in first half of games, with only one loss by less than 10 points. Toledo allowed 30+ points in three of its four wins.

-- UCLA lost last four games, three by 14+ points; they allowed average of 239.7 rushing yards in last three games. Bruins converted 21 of last 82 on 3rd down. Over is 3-0-1 in Oregon State's last four games.

-- Michigan is just 24-56 passing last two games; they lost last three vs I-A opponents, are 0-2 on road. Illinois lost last five games (0-4 vs line in last four). Illini covered one of four as an underdog this season.

-- Missouri lost last three games, allowing 33.7 ppg; their last six games stayed under total. Colorado covered four of last five games; they're 2-0 at home, beating Wyoming, Kansas. Big 12 home underdogs are 3-4.

-- Kansas lost last two games, allowed 33.3 ppg in last four (0-4 against spread). Texas Tech won three of last four games, all of which were won by 20+ points. Home favorites are 5-6 vs spread in Big 12 games.

-- Nevada won last four games, scoring 41.3 ppg, running ball for 425.3 ypg (625 TY/game). Hawai'i lost last five games (0-4 vs spread last four) Favorite covered three of their four road games.

-- TCU had huge win at BYU last week, has to avoid letdown vs UNLV squad that lost four of last five games (1-5 vs spread in last six). Under is 3-1-1 in Horned Frogs' last five games. MWC home favorites are 3-4.

-- Colorado State lost last five games (1-4 vs spread); in last two games, Rams were outscored 62-7 in second half. Air Force lost OT game last week at Utah- they're 1-3 on road, beating winless New Mexico 37-13.

-- Penn State won last four games by average score of 36-8, covering last three games as favorite; six of their last seven games stayed under total. Northwestern is 5-3, with losses by 3-11-10 (2-1 as an underdog).

-- Idaho is 7-1 vs spread this year, 1-0 as home favorite, winning at home by 14-2-12 points. Favorite is 6-0 vs spread in Louisiana Tech games, as Tech is 0-4 as road dog. WAC home favorites are 7-2 against spread.

-- Fresno State won last three games by combined score of 117-41; they are 5-1 vs spread in '09, 3-0 as favorite. The last three Utah State games were decided by total of 8 points. USU is 3-1 as a road underdog.

-- Mississippi State lost four of last five games, losing 29-19 to Florida at home last week despite scoring two defensive TDs- Bulldogs have 8 INTs last three games. Kentucky is 0-3 when it allows 28+ points.

-- Former New Mexico coach Long is now San Diego State's DC; think he'll take it easy on winless Lobos team that has six losses by 17+ pts. Aztecs allowed 26+ points in four of their last five games.

-- Notre Dame is 1-5 as favorite this year; their last six games were won by seven or less points. Washington State covered four of last five tilts, losing last four by an average score of 39-11.

-- Houston won last three games by 7-28-23 points; four of its last five games stayed under total. Southern Miss won its last two games, scoring 79 points- they're 0-3 on road, losing by 7-13-2 points.

-- Wyoming won three of last four games, allowing total of 23 points in last two; they're 3-1-1 vs spread as an underdog. Utah won last four in a row, but needed OT last week; they're 2-4 as a favorite this season.

-- LSU played Auburn last week, has Alabama next, so they're holding stuff back here; Tigers are 2-3 as favorite, with four of six wins by 14 pts or less. Tulane lost last three games by 21-28-37 points (1-5 as dog).

-- Arkansas State is 1-4 vs I-A teams, but lost at unbeaten Iowa by slim three points; three of their four losses are by six or less points. Four of last five Louisville games stayed under total. Cards are 1-5 vs I-A foes.

-- FIU is 1-6 this year, allowing 41-42 points in its two home games (13 of last 48 on 3rd down). ULL is 0-2 as road underdog this year; favorites are 3-0 in their road games. Sun Belt home teams are 7-8 vs spread.

-- North Texas lost last six games, is 0-1 as favorite this year; they gave up 1,223 yards in last two games, are -9 in turnovers last four. Western Kentucky is 0-7, 2-5 vs spread, losing last three by 17-8-28 points.

-- Florida Atlantic scored 95 points in winning last two games after 0-4 start; they're 0-2 as a home favorite. Four of last five FAU games went over total. Middle Tennessee is 1-3 against spread as a dog this season.

-- Troy won last five games (4-1 vs spread); they're 3-0 as a home fave, winning by 13-24-24 points. UL-Monroe won three of last four games; they're 25 for last 48 on 3rd down. Sun Belt home favorites are 6-5.

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[pm530]

NCAAF


Friday, October 30

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What bettors need to know: WVU at South Florida
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West Virginia Mountaineers at South Florida Bulls (+3, 47.5)

The skinny

For the third straight season, South Florida started the season at least 5-0 before suffering a midseason losing streak. The Bulls lost two straight games to ranked Big East opponents and now face a do-or-die situation against WVU before they close their season with a difficult stretch of games.

West Virginia is heading in a completely different direction. After an 11-point loss at Auburn on Sept. 19 (a game in which WVU out-yarded the Tigers 519-400), WVU has won four straight by an average of 13.7 PPG.

The Mountaineers enter this game after an emotional comeback victory over UConn while the Bulls enter it after a 27-point shellacking at the hands of Pittsburgh. Both teams could really use a victory to gain a little credibility in the Big East.

QB problems

After USF Senior QB Matt Grothe was lost for the year with a torn ACL, redshirt freshmen BJ Daniels stepped in and led the Bulls to two straight wins and it looked as if South Florida was going to be alright.

But Daniels has regressed in the last two games, completing just 47 percent of his passes for 131 yards per game and throwing four interceptions and one touchdown.

Daniels was benched in the Bulls’ blowout loss to Cincinnati a week ago and now he faces a West Virginia defense that has allowed just 52 percent completions and forced nine interceptions the past four weeks.

Mountaineer QB Jarrett Brown is also suffering through a cold streak. He was knocked out of the game against Marshall and has thrown for a meager five touchdowns and five interceptions the past five games.

“Devine” Mountaineer

West Virginia running back Noel Devine has had quite an October. He has rushed for 592 yards on a 6.8 YPC average with six total touchdowns with a chance to add to those numbers Friday night. In the second half of last week’s game against UConn, Devine had 14 carries for 171 yards and the game including a winning 56-yard touchdown run.

South Florida has allowed 403 rushing yards in its last two games on a 5.1 YPC average. Last week, Pitt running back Dion Lewis racked up 111 yards and two touchdowns.

They have had good success against WVU however, holding the potent Mountaineer rushing attack to just 153 YPG the past three years.

Line movement

This line opened with West Virginia as a 3-point road favorite. It moved to -3.5 at a few spots, however, the consensus has kept the Mountaineers as field-goal chalk. The total on this game opened at 47.5.

Trends

West Virginia is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 conference games, 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog and 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games.

WVU has finished over the total in five of the last seven games overall and USF is 4-1 over/under in its last five games. The Bulls are also 9-3 over/under in last 12 home games but the last four meetings between these two teams have stayed under.

West Virginia has been favored every time it’s faced the Bulls but it has only covered once since 2005. It’s split 2-2 SU with the average of just 35 total PPG.

Weather

The high in Tampa on Friday will be very hot at close to 90 degrees. By game time it will still be in the 80's with very little chance of any precipitation.

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[pm530]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 31

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Game of the day: USC at Oregon
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USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks (+3, 47)

Bettors are in for a treat when the No. 4 USC Trojans (6-1 2-5 ATS) visit the No. 12 Oregon Ducks (6-1 5-2 ATS) on Halloween night.

Lesser teams might have faltered with the early horrors experienced by both teams. Oregon's season, of course, began with a knockout punch and USC slipped to a mediocre Washington squad.

Since then, they have stayed clear of the loss column, making their matchup in Eugene one of the most important games of the year .

From LeGarrette to LaMichael

Before the season, big things were expected from SR RB LeGarrette Blount. His antics at the end of the Boise State loss and eventual suspension were not part of these expectations.

Fortunately for Oregon, LaMichael James came to the rescue. The redshirt freshman has fit in nicely in the starting role having rushed for 150 plus yards in three games this year. In his last two games, James rushed for a total of 306 yards averaging 8.7 yards per carry against UCLA and Washington.

This will be the most talented defense that James has encountered this year, with USC ranked fifth in the nation in rush defense, allowing only 79.9 yards per game.

Second-half slide

No one doubts the talent of the Trojans’ defense but some weaknesses were exposed in their last two games. Against Notre Dame, they allowed 27 points and last week versus Oregon State they gave up 36. What is more telling, however, is the fact that 48 of these points came in the second half.

The Irish and Beavers seemed to adjust at the half to USC's defensive gameplan, which kept both games closer than they should have been. Sophomore linebacker Chris Galippo admitted that "tackling was a big deal against Oregon State" and that the team will be going "back to the basics this week".

After dealing with a pro-style offense the last two weeks, the Trojans will change up their gameplan for Oregon's spread. Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli poses a threat on the ground having already rushed for seven TDs this year. But the Trojan D has done well this year against fleet-footed QBs as illustrated in their game versus Ohio State.

The Trojans’ linebacker corps will be busy and need to limit the impact of James. A close eye will also have to be kept on Masoli's favorite target, tight end Ed Dickson. Dickson's season is highlighted by a 148-yard, three-TD performances against Cal.

Barkley vs. Autzen

One has to either hate or love the laidback attitude of Matt Barkley who said that "the energy is going to be awesome(in Eugene) and it's going to be a cool atmosphere, especially on Halloween night."

But regardless of what he or anyone says, the freshman QB has lived up to the hype. He is off to a 6-0 record as a starter with two of those wins on the road against Ohio State and Notre Dame.

Tradition aside, Autzen is a different entity from the Horseshoe or Notre Dame Stadium. During the Trojan's last visit in 2007, the Ducks won 24-17 and the crowd noise level was recorded at 127.2 decibels.

Offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates is fully aware of the difficulty of playing in Autzen and if Barkley runs into early trouble, the emphasis will be on the run.

Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford are not quite LenDale White and Reggie Bush, but they do present a big problem to this Oregon defense, which has overachieved this year.

Bradford had a breakthrough game last week rushing for 147 yards and two TDs.

Ducks defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti has done a great job with his defense allowing only 16.7 points per game and this comes after losing a couple of key players in their secondary due to injury.

The Ducks have had success at pressuring the QB but have done so mostly on plays where they sent five or six guys on the rush, trusting their secondary in single-man coverage.

But with a talented offensive line and NFL caliber threats in both the air and the ground, Aliotti will have to adjust his defensive gameplan and think of more creative ways for the front four to get to Barkley.

Quick notes

- Oregon QB Masoli is still hampered a bit by a knee injury. “I’m giving myself a B for the knee,” Masoli said. The injured knee, however, did not impact his performance in the Duck's 43-19 victory over Washington
- USC TE Anthony McCoy is not expected to play (ankle sprain)
- USC FB Stanley Havili is not expect to play either, D.J. Shoemate will start in his place
- ESPN Gameday crew will be on site in Eugene

The line

The spread has remained steady all week at -3 in favor of the visiting Trojans. The favorite has won and covered in the last four games in this series.

Last year, USC was a 16-point favorite at home and it easily covered, winning 44-10. The last the time these two played in Eugene, the Ducks were 2-point favorites and they won 24-17. The game came down to a last-second interception thrown by a then-inexperienced Mark Sanchez.

At 2-5 ATS USC hasn't been the greatest cover team, but this is the lowest number that they have dealt with in the last two years. The lowest number prior to this was earlier this year against Cal. The Trojans were -4.5 favorites and blew out the Golden Bears 30-3 on prime time TV

The Ducks are 5-2 ATS and have won straight up, the last four of six against USC at Autzen. With the spread so low, Oregon backers may find value in the moneyline which sits at +140. Also with USC's current slide in the second half, bettors may want to look into a second-half bet if the number is high enough.

The total for the game sits at 47 and has experienced only slight half point movements both ways. The previous four games in this series have gone under the total, but last year's total was sharp with the 44-10 game only going under the line of 56 by only two points.

USC is 3-4 over/under this year, with its last two games against Notre Dame and Oregon State going over by a combined average of 18.5 points.

USC has always come up big against elite non-conference teams, but it’s when the Trojans encounter a tough conference foe on the road where trouble begins. Last year it was Oregon State and two years ago it was Ducks in Eugene, but this is a USC team that hasn't been to a national title in a couple years and it will be ready for the Halloween night crowd.

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[Kaptain]

10/30/09
01:21 PM Injury Alert
CFB
MIAMI FL.

JAVARRIS JAMES (Lower Body) : Listed as Out for Saturday's game vs WF.

10/30/09
01:20 PM Injury Alert
CFB
MICHIGAN :

MARTAVIOUS ODOMS (Knee) : Listed as Probable for Saturday at ILL.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 31

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Tips and Trends
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USC at Oregon [ABC | 8:00 PM ET]

USC (-3, O/U 47): USC has lost its last three games in the state of Oregon, one in Eugene against Oregon and twice in Corvallis, home of Oregon State. The Trojans rolled past Oregon, 44-10, last season. However, they lost in their last trip to Autzen Stadium two years ago, 24-17. That’s the only time the Ducks have beaten the Trojans during the past five meetings. USC allowed an average of 8.6 points and 238.6 yards during its first five games this season. In their last two games, though, against Oregon State and Notre Dame, the Trojans have surrendered a combined 63 points and 849 yards. Freshman USC quarterback Matt Barkley has thrown at least one interception in each of his last three games. Oregon is tied for the Pac-10 lead in turnovers with 19. The Trojans are 1-6 against the spread the past seven times they’ve been road chalk.

The Under is 21-9-1 in the Trojans’ last 31 games.
The Under is 25-11-1 in USC’s last 37 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - Tight end Anthony McCoy (knee) is questionable.
Fullback Stanley Havili (shoulder) is questionable.
Running back Stafon Johnson (throat) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 25

Oregon: The 10th-ranked Ducks are riding a six-game winning streak following an opening-game home loss to Boise State. Oregon’s defense has held three of its last four opponents to 211 yards or fewer. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli returned last week after missing the Oct. 10 win against UCLA and led the Ducks to a 43-19 victory over Washington. Masoli threw for 157 yards, rushed for 54 yards and accounted for three touchdowns. Oregon is averaging 45.7 points and 484.7 yards in the last three games Masoli has played. LaMichael James has rushed for 657 yards and scored six touchdowns in his last five games. James totaled 154 yards and two touchdowns in the victory against Washington. The Ducks have covered in their last five games. They are 9-3 against the spread as a home underdog. Oregon has covered in its last six Pac-10 Conference matchups.

The Over is 7-1-1 in Oregon’s last nine home contests.
The last 4 in this series have gone Under the total.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 22 (UNDER - Total of the Day)


Side of the Day is in MLB today.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel - Sat. POD


USC at Oregon
The Ducks look to take advantage of a USC team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as a road favorite. Oregon is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+3 1/2).

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 1

Game 231-232: Marshall at Central Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 81.417; Central Florida 86.788
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+7); Under

[pm530]

NCAAF
Dunkel Index


UPDATE - Dunkel write-up for Sunday's game

Sunday, November 1

Marshall at Central Florida
The Thundering Herd look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Marshall is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has Central Florida favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+7).

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