Thursday Trends and Indexes 10/15 (MLB, NHL, Misc.)

[pm530]

MLB


Thursday, October 15

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Tips and Trends
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Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers [TBS | 8:07 PM ET]

Phillies: The Phillies easily defeated the Dodgers in last year’s National League Championship Series. Philadelphia tied with the Angels for having the best road record in baseball at 50-33. The Phillies have won 10 of their last 12 against National League West Division teams. They are 9-2 in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Phillies have four of the top 15 home run leaders in the National League with Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth and Chase Utley. Phillies starter Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA) lost as a $1.60 home favorite in his last start against Colorado in the playoffs, 5-4. The left-hander surrendered four earned runs on seven hits in five innings pitched. In his last three regular-season starts, Hamels allowed 13 earned runs, 20 hits and five walks in 16 2/3 innings. The Phillies have gone over in 12 of their last 14 road contests.

The Under is 8-2-1 in Cole Hamels’ last 11 starts.
The Phillies are 11-5 in their past 16 games versus the Dodgers.

Key Injuries - Pitcher Scott Eyre (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Dodgers (-$1.35, O/U 7): The Dodgers led the majors with a 3.44 ERA. They also had the best bullpen ERA at 3.18, compared to the Phillies’ bullpen ERA of 3.90 and uncertainty at the closer spot. Los Angeles rapped out 29 hits and scored 13 runs in sweeping the Cardinals in three games during opening-round playoff action. Russell Martin and Matt Kemp, however, were a combined 3-for-23 batting in the series. The Dodgers are 52-31 at home. Clayton Kershaw, a 21-year-old left-hander, is getting the Game 1 start after early speculation that it might be veteran Randy Wolf. Kershaw has struggled versus Philadelphia going 0-2 this season with a 5.23 ERA. He is 0-3 lifetime against the Phillies with a 6.64 ERA. Los Angeles has lost nine of the past 12 times Kershaw has started. The Dodgers are 2-8 the past 10 times Kershaw has taken the mound as a favorite.

Los Angeles is 71-33 in its last 104 games as a home favorite.
The Under has cashed in 7 of Clayton Kershaw’s last eight starts.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)


Note: The “Tips and Trends” Total of the Day is in College Football.

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[pm530]

NHL
Dunkel Index


Tampa Bay at Ottawa
The Lightning look to take advantage of an Ottawa team that is coming off a 4-1 loss to Pittsburgh and is just 3-7 in its last 10 games following a home loss by 3 or more goals. Tampa Bay is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+135). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15

Game 51-52: San Jose at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.414; Washington 11.468
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+120); Over

Game 53-54: Colorado at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.684; Montreal 11.462
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Under

Game 55-56: Tampa Bay at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.663; Ottawa 11.101
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+135); Under

Game 57-58: Los Angeles at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.576; Detroit 12.144
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+180); Over

Game 59-60: Chicago at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.340; Nashville 10.643
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-130); Under

Game 61-62: St. Louis at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.358; Phoenix 11.727
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120); Over

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[pm530]

NHL
Long Sheet


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Thursday, October 15
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SAN JOSE (3-2-0-1, 7 pts.) at WASHINGTON (2-3-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/15/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 34-34 ATS (-25.5 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 16-4 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 127-106 ATS (+19.9 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 90-135 ATS (+225.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 1-0-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)

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COLORADO (4-1-0-1, 9 pts.) at MONTREAL (2-3-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/15/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 18-30 ATS (-17.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 43-48 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 23-28 ATS (-13.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 1-0-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

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TAMPA BAY (2-1-0-2, 6 pts.) at OTTAWA (3-2-0-0, 6 pts.) - 10/15/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 26-59 ATS (+99.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 58-124 ATS (+226.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 12-27 ATS (+39.7 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 22-50 ATS (+83.7 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 3-15 ATS (+22.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 82-91 ATS (+201.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 3-11 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 12-24 ATS (-15.1 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 37-43 ATS (-19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 7-14 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 5-3 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 5-3-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)

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LOS ANGELES (4-2-0-0, 8 pts.) at DETROIT (2-3-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/15/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 91-136 ATS (-50.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 16-31 ATS (+48.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 7-1 (+3.9 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 7-1-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.0 Units, Under=-0.9 Units)

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CHICAGO (4-1-0-1, 9 pts.) at NASHVILLE (2-3-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/15/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 11-19 ATS (-9.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 189-232 ATS (-84.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
CHICAGO is 96-121 ATS (-46.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.
CHICAGO is 105-111 ATS (+251.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
CHICAGO is 46-26 ATS (+16.0 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 8-6 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-6-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.5 Units, Under=-1.6 Units)

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ST LOUIS (2-2-0-0, 4 pts.) at PHOENIX (3-2-0-0, 6 pts.) - 10/15/2009, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 4-4 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 4-4-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.4 Units)

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[pm530]

NHL
Short Sheet


Thursday, October 15

SAN JOSE at WASHINGTON, 7:00 PM ET
SAN JOSE: 14-2-1 SU against Washington
WASHINGTON: 83-131 SU in non-conference games

COLORADO at MONTREAL, 7:30 PM ET
COLORADO: 13-31 SU after playing a road game
MONTREAL: 10-6 SU off 3+ consecutive road losses

TAMPA BAY at OTTAWA, 7:30 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 2-12 SU off a home win by 1 goal
OTTAWA: 15-5 SU at home when the money line is -100 to -150

LOS ANGELES at DETROIT, 7:30 PM ET
LOS ANGELES: 5-21 SU when playing their 3rd game in 4 days
DETROIT: 24-3 SU at home after one or more consecutive overs

CHICAGO at NASHVILLE, 8:00 PM ET
CHICAGO: 11-19 SU vs. division opponents
NASHVILLE: 16-5 SU after having lost 3 of their last 4

ST LOUIS at PHOENIX, 10:00 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 57-44 SU when playing with 3 or more days rest
PHOENIX: 5-13 SU at home after 4+ consecutive unders

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[pm530]

NHL


Thursday, October 15

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
SAN JOSE vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Jose's last 6 games
San Jose is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Jose
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose

7:30 PM
COLORADO vs. MONTREAL
Colorado is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Colorado is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
Montreal is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado

7:30 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. DETROIT
Los Angeles is 1-12-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games at home

7:30 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. OTTAWA
Tampa Bay is 4-20 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ottawa's last 9 games
Ottawa is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. NASHVILLE
Chicago is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Nashville's last 23 games when playing at home against Chicago
Nashville is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Chicago

10:30 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. PHOENIX
St. Louis is 5-10-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games

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[pm530]

NHL


Thursday, October 15

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Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets
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San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals (-125, 6)

Maybe it was the pressure of being the team’s leader. Maybe that extra bit of lettering was slowing him down. Whatever, the case – Patrick Marleau is thriving since dropping the captain’s C from his jersey.

In the first five games of the season, the Sharks center scored five goals including netting a pair against the Minnesota Wild last weekend. Marleau has been bumped back to the second line and doesn’t have Joe Thornton making plays anymore. But that hasn’t slowed his pace.

"I'm just playing," he said. "I'm trying to get off to a good start. ... It's a long season,” Marleau told the San Francisco Chronicle.

Marleau’s nose for the net along with Dany Heatley’s resurgence in San Jose (10 points since being traded from Ottawa) has the Sharks off to a 3-2-0-1 start to the season. They currently sit just 12th in goals heading into Thursday’s showdown with another club known for goal scoring, the Washington Capitals.

The last time these teams met, San Jose scored seven goals for a 7-2 win that played over the 5.5-point total.

Pick: Over


Los Angeles Kings at Detroit Red Wings (NA)

There were questions about the Red Wing’s scoring punch after watching some major contributors leave the team this offseason.

And, five games into the season, those questions are still unanswered. The first line forwards, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Todd Bertuzzi are scoreless to start the year and have just seven assist between them.

"We've got to score some goals," Zetterberg told the media. "We had a few chances. I should have had at least one or two today.

"It's not just finishing off, you have to be a little more desperate when you have your chances. You've got to put them in, otherwise, you will not score now. I had a few chances I should have put in. Just have to go back to work again and make sure we score next time."

Detroit is 2-3 to start the schedule and is averaging just 2.8 goals on 30.2 shots per game.

Pick: Los Angeles

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[pm530]

Len’s Top Five

Thursday, October 15

Len's Top 5

Happy Thursday everyone, here's my Top 5 for October 15, 2009 from Len Berman Sports.

1. Quick Hits

* The race for the pennant. Game 1 for the National League Championship is tonight. Phillies @ Dodgers. 8:07pm ET. TBS.

* It was only a matter of time. The group trying to buy the St. Louis Rams dropped Rush Limbaugh as a potential partner.

* It was only a matter of time II. Binghamton basketball coach Kevin Broadus was placed on paid leave. We don't have enough space to recount all the problems involved in that program.


2. Like-ly Candidates

Who are America's most likeable celebrities? In a national survey, of the top 33, only two athletes made the list. Michael Phelps was ranked 2nd (behind American Idol judge Randy Jackson) and Alex Rodriguez ranked 19th. Both interesting choices. Both suffered "black eyes" in the media. Phelps with his bong picture, A-Rod with steroids. More interesting, A-Rod also scored well in believability and sincerity. So while we skeptics scoffed at his "cousin injected me with something" story, America apparently bought it. How about that?

3. Upon Further Review

Yesterday's item about Hiroshima and Nagasaki wanting to stage an Olympics brought much comment. Those two cities had A-bombs dropped on them, and I thought it ironic that they would capitalize on that. Top 5 subscriber J.G. (a television director) emailed to say: "I did a Marathon in Hiroshima years ago, and I would hesitate in any way to make light of the City of Peace that they have established. The stories that are told and the memories of agony that can still be seen at the Dome are something that will haunt you forever. The entire city has become one of the world's leading centers for the promotion of world peace. Everyone should go there to remember and never forget."
My sincere thanks for that perspective, J.G.

4. R.I. P Captain

The great wrestling showman Captain Lou Albano passed away yesterday at the age of 76. My favorite Captain Lou moment? His "rendition" of the National Anthem. It was a "Spanning the World" classic. Thanks for the memories, Lou.

5. Down by Contact

Here's how you know maybe football isn't your sport. A 7 year old boy was playing football in his backyard in Wintersville Ohio when he was tackled by a deer. Honest. The kid wasn't seriously hurt, but the Detroit Lions have called about the deer's eligibility. They could pay him big bucks. Lots of doe....

Happy Birthday: Orioles hall of fame pitcher Jim Palmer. 64.
Bonus Birthday: Schlemeel, schlemazel, Laverne on Laverne and Shirley, Actress/Director Penny Marshall. 67.

Today in Sports: Ron Swoboda made his incredible World Series catch. 1969. And "The Great One" Wayne Gretzky surpassed Gordie Howe as the all time NHL Scorer. 1989. Both are featured in my new kids book "The Greatest Moments in Sports: coming out next month. Yet another shameless plug!
Bonus Event: Lucy, I'm home. I Love Lucy debuts on CBS. 1951.

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