Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers

When the Capitals faced strong teams in offense, they didn't let their credits in other hands. They scored as much as they can and a team that have Ovechkin, is not hard to do it. The truth is, I think that Washington enjoy to play against teams that push them, teams that try to score more than them.

Atlanta is one of the most effective teams when we talk about scoring goals. They can score one goal in almost 6 shots. Both teams arrive to this game with 3.5 goals per game. A strong mark. However, Atlanta lowered their stats due to the fact that they spent almost 2 weeks on the road, decreasing their power. In the first 2 games, the only ones at home, they scored 6 goals in both games.

So, I expect here a game where Atlanta will try to start pressing the Capitals, but this team can bounce away that pressure and keep on the scoreboard, even if Atlanta score. Defensively, Atlanta is better than Washington, but the Capitals can easily find spots in Atlanta defense. I confess that this play would be much better if Semin plays, but even without him Washington can find many spaces. It will be a clash between Kovalchuk and Ovechkin to see which one will score the most goals and the public will probably win with that clash, because it promises a lot of goals... Both goaltenders will be just spectators in the game, both teams seem to wish to give to the audience a good show, as they put their worst goaltender in the lineup...


Pick: Over 6.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning

A few days ago, i was sceptic about the Sharks, betting against them when they played against the Capitals in Washington. I was right, but since then they played 2 games and crushed both opponentws, including a 7-3 at New York against the Rangers, one of the hottest teams this season. So, when they face tonight Tampa in the middle of their road trip, they will try to keep the recent "momentum" they acquired. They will give everything they got tonight, as they will face after this game teams better than Tampa.

Tampa is a team well known by their adversaries, because, and I hope no one crucifies me, they are only known by their first live... St Louis, Lecavallier and so on, makes this team reasonable, as they are the players that makes this team one that win games some times. They only won 2 games this year, playing 3 at home. They won because of their offensive, that has been stronger than the other teams, Hurricanes and Panthers. They lost at home against Devils, a team that likes to play forward, and have also good players at front. When they played out, they showed how week they are in defense, taking 7 goals in Ottawa. So, let's face the reality. Tampa will do pretty things specially at home this year, they have few talented players in first line to do so. However, can they do it against Sharks? I can´t believe it.

San Jose is a strong team. No one doubts it. They are strong in defense and at offensive game as well. They have talented players in every lines of their roster, ensuring they will go to every games trying to win. So, this game will only have 3 processes: Tampa attacking, San Jose defending, and then, San Jose attacking... and no one defending. I can't see much more in this game, the Sharks are finally playing their game, with much morale due to a blowout win at MSG, and they will have the edge on the goaltender position, which will probably be Smith for Tampa, a goaltender that is allowing more than 4 goals per game.


Pick: San Jose Sharks 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

2009.10.21 results:

Nashville Predators @ Boston Bruins: Boston Bruins PL -1.5 +150 (2.50) 5Dimes (3-2: LOSS)
Buffalo Sabres @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker (2-5: LOSS)
Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild: Colorado Avalanche ML +120 (2.20) 5Dimes, The Greek (3-2: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago Blackhawks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1,95) Bookmaker (2-3: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks: Over 5.5 -120 (1.83) 5 Dimes, Centrebet, Pinnacle (2-3: LOSS)

2009.10.21 finished with a 0-5 and -5 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 11-20 (-4,23 units lost/31 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Rough patch we're riding here.

2009.10.22 results:

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker, Centrebet (5-1: WIN)
New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (5-1: LOSS)
Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +185 (2.85) Bookmaker (4-3: LOSS)
Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers: Over 6.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (4-5: WIN)
San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning: San Jose Sharks 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (5-2: LOSS)

2009.10.22 finished with a 2-3 and -1.14 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 13-23 (-5.37 units lost/36 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Carolina Hurricanes @ Colorado Avalanche

Colorado will host Carolina with the Hurricanes being a road underdog team. Can Peter Budaj discredit the work that Avalanche has done so far? It will be first game this season for Budaj in Avalanche's nets. It's true that Anderson has been one of the keys for their wins. But Avalanche will have a B2B game at home and Anderson will be spared. But, Budaj is not bad at all. He had a bad season last year, but in the previous seasons, he had done a good work. Now, why can't he be reliable? He will make his first game, after 9 games, with a team that has a high morale and I see it as something contagious for all the players in the roster.

Colorado started the season with 2 home games, winning easily Sharks and Canucks. Then went to a 7 games road trip, losing the first 2 games and the last one, 2 of them in SO. The other game was lost by one goal only. So, this team is playing very well, fighting all the games with all they've got. They are making the difference in the field in PP situations too.

Carolina are struggling this year. I's a team that I enjoy, however they still have a hard rail to go. With only a easy win at home, over Panthers, this team had lost the 4 games they done as visitors. So for this game, there will be to many edges for Colorado to let this one pass. They are playing much better on offense and defense. They got confidence and the Hurricanes still have to find their game. They are few "degrees" below Colorado right now and Budaj will not be the key for Hurricanes, as I expect him to play well as the rest of the team.


Pick: Colorado Avalanche 3Way (1X2) +145 (2.45) Diamond (DSI), Centrebet, bet365

[SPLIT SALAD]

GL tonight

[Kaptain]

gl tonight---thanks

[TommyGold]

Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh is in a 6 wins streak. Why end it today? I don't have much to explain this pick. The Penguins are playing well and their only absence will be Fleury. However, his impact on the team is not so strong, which give us few or no doubts about the Penguins' performance. Pittsburgh is well known by their offensive line. They can easily score and they shot a lot.

Florida is not a reliable team. After the horrible display by Clemmenson last game, allowing 2 goals in the first minutes at home, Vokoun had troubles too, and the Panthers ended losing 5-2. They are playing badly in their defense, allowing almost 4 goals per game. And even their offensive has moods.

So for me, this is a simple game to analyse. A team that has big troubles defending will face the Penguins and the bookies give us a PL over the pair? We can't let this one pass! The differences between both rosters, the way they are playing, and the momentum of both team are astounding!


Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) 5Dimes, PIT PL -1.5 +155 (2.55) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators

This season Boston are trying to show us how to bet on them. It's a funny trend, because in a 9 games, they cannot make 2 wins or losses in a row. So, I suspect that there will be many bettors today betting on Boston just because they lost the last one. However, in this world of probabilities they might be wrong. They think that will be much more probable a win for the Bruins because of the trend. However, it's a false thinking. The probabilities are in favor to end this trend and is like a linear equation. If they delay to make 2 in a row the bigger will the probabilities for to that happen. So, after 9 games I think that the probability, only statistically speaking, will be in favou of the Senators, and for those that only bet on sports due to probabilities, these will be bigger today.

In their last game, only 2 days ago in Philadelphia, I saw Boston playing a Little bit. They are playing horrible, they are not anymore that cohesive team that we knew from last year. Boston is losing their games against teams that got the momentum and are playing well. They have individual values, but they are not producing the expected hockey. Savard, the top scorer, will be out and he is one of the few players in the team still showing how to play the game.

Ottawa, despite the last loss against a team that is rising from the dead, is playing well. The Senators are not a team that is afraid of "big team names" and they fight 'till the end on every game. They are also a good team, with talented players that make the difference, specially Alfredsson, who can lead them.

Thus, I think this could be a good clash between a team that is playing poorly, allowing the adversaries to play too much, and a team that is playing well. With the Senators players making the difference instead of the Bruins players, we have an edge on defense and offense on our side, and Ottawa should win this one. However, I prefer to play this on the ML, because I expect some improvement from the Bruins from their last game, however it will not be enough to give them the win. Overall, this is the line offering the best value for me.


Pick: Ottawa Senators ML -124 (1.81) 5Dimes, OTT ML -120 (1.83) SBOBET

[TommyGold]

New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens

Today we will have a game where the key for the victory will not be the stats of this season. Montreal has a good roster, however they delayed to show it. After wins on their first 2 games this season, they struggled a lot being defeated 5 times in a row. Fortunately for them when the whistle of disgrace played, they returned to victories and arrive to this game with 2 straight wins.

In the other side, we will have a Rangers team facing their worst moment of this season so far. After starting with a loss, they had 7 straight wins and were one of the hottest teams in the league, playing well and scoring a lot. But... as much as you climb, bigger will be the fall. And Rangers are coming from 2 home defeats, showing big problems on defense.

Both teams are talented and have players that can make the difference. It's true that Montreal has been unrecognized this season, but has appeared on last game. Rangers were playing well, showing everyone their offensive power, and that they can beat everybody.

However for me, the spot to explore is this: Rangers lost their momentum, coming from 2 home losses, where they show mental weakness. A non-strong mental team will always struggle in Montreal. And I think that we will have here a non-confident Rangers.
Montreal is finally starting to show their game. They are a smart team and they can explore this non physical part of the game to win it. They need to continue with their wins and facing a team with a "bad momentum", but second on the Eastern Conference, can be a good boost. So, we cannot pass on this home dog.


Pick: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker, MON 3Way +170 (2.70) NordicBet

[TommyGold]

2009.10.23 results:

Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) 5Dimes (3-2: LOSS)
Carolina Hurricanes @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche 3Way (1X2) +145 (2.45) Diamond (DSI) (5-4: WIN)

2009.10.23 finished with a 1-1 and +0.45 units won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 14-24 (-4.92 units lost/38 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders: Over 6 -104 (1.96) 5Dimes - The Capitals are in a good scoring mood and the Islanders have some motivation to score some goals too, they are a young team, they chase their losses, which will be a big mistake for them, allowing the Capitals to score a few more goals.

Florida Panthers @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +135 (2.35) 5Dimes - The Flyers play at home, against a Florida team which played in Pittsburgh against the title holders, being in the lead up to the 3 minutes before the last whistle, the Panthers gave everything they've got against the Penguins, they are exhausted and therefore, they shouldn't be at their best tonight. Philadelphia is one of those teams that if you allow them to have some room to play, to maneuver inside your lines, they have a very good ability to score, on that matter, Richards and Carter are lethal goalscorers.

Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes - Colorado is playing quite well, they are a solide team and they have shown good gameplans so far. I understand why they are home underdogs, it is a B2B game against the vice-champions, (Colorado is 1-0 with 0 days rest, it is not much to show, but it seems that they aren't that bad yet on this kind of scenario), but Detroit's hockey display is actually very bad and I don't see any value on them right now. On their previous encounter, Colorado went to Detroit and defeated the Red Winds, so why not another win for Colorado tonight?

If you can get CAR ML +130, go ahead, otherwise, I'll pass on them.

[Chado1]

GL tonight Tommy!!!

[TommyGold]

2009.10.24 results:

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators ML -124 (1.81) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (3-4: LOSS)
New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker Paddy Power DONE (5-4: LOSS)
Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders: Over 6 -104 (1.96) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (2-3: LOSS)
Florida Panthers @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +135 (2.35) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (5-1: WIN)
Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes bet365 DONE (3-1: WIN)


2009.10.24 finished with a 2-3 and -0,25 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 16-27 (-5.17 units lost/43 units risked)

[TommyGold]

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) The Greek - The youth of the Islanders will not be enough against a rising Canadiens team, with enough experience and having good results lately. They have the best team and they should show it tonight.