Can You Pick Which Team Is the Favorite

[thesandman]

Is it Team A or Team B?

Team A has WON their last 4 games.
Team B has LOST 5 in a row and 8 of their last 9 games.

Team A is 10-2 in away games started by today's starter.
Team B is 8-7 in home games started by today's starter.

Team A is averaging 5.1 runs per away game.
Team B is averaging 4.2 runs per home game.

The favorite is -163.
The dog is +153.

You can play Team B, St. Louis and lay -163 or
You can play Team A, LA Dodgers and get +153.

Now for the big question. Why would anyone lay -163 to play the team that has lost 8 of their last 9, against a pitcher whose team has won 10 of the 12 away games he started. And don't forget, the dog is on a 4 game winning streak. Do you think just because St. Louis has to win, this is the game St. Louis can turn things around. I sure don't after looking at the numbers above.

PLAY LA DODGERS TO END IT AT +153.

[The Lovedoc]

Team A?

[gizmo]

Its all about next days pitcher and I think Padilla gets killed but I am not laying 160 on St L either.

Good Luck

[molta02]

team A is starting vicente padilla.

[DAREALDEAL]

TEAM A has their ace on the mound......billingsley will come through tonight....i dont know how st louis will respond to the heartbreaking play

[celtics72]

sandman, while the theory is correct, and LA is definitely the value bet in the long term, you can't point out St Louis has lost 8 of 9, and then conveniently forget that LA lost 6 in a row rgt before this 4 game win streak. BTW, those stats for As pitcher must be Billingsley, not Padilla, who just got to LA a month ago

[thesandman]

celtics. No, the stats are for Padilla. It's both Texas and LA combined. Actually, his LA stats are much better than his Texas stats. He was 4-0 for LA with a 3.20 ERA. So far it looks like it might not matter if LA can hold a 4 run lead.

I base my plays on how teams are currently playing. If this was 4 games ago and LA had just one win after four losses, if anything they would still be a play against.

[trick4]

very good point sandman

[celtics72]

OK, now I see the connection with the Padilla stats--and again, while I agree the dodgers had more value, if you are going back 9 games with St Louis, it paints a fuller picture when you go back the same amount with LA. I layed off, and so far your play looks great. At least you don't have to worry about LA throwing a pick 6 like I did today with UCLA & Wisky lol

[gizmo]

you are correct the cardinals suck,that 1st inning was it.

[DAREALDEAL]

i thought billingsley was going today.......padilla looked like an ace though, hitting the corners with a 96 MPH FASTBALL