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Being from the area, I am very familiar with the Wolf Pack, and have watched with fascination as the total shifted today.
In the interest of full disclosure, I posted a trend of 9 straight ESPN/non-Saturday NCAA games that have come in UNDER in the first half total, and I am confidently playing a 10th straight.
Today, at all local books, the first half total has curiously moved from O/U 28 to 28.5 - a very big hook to be sure. This is clearly a reaction to $$ coming in on the Over on all fronts, and the books needing to stem the tide. Yes La Tech has been a WAC offensive power in recent years, and true, Nevada is coming off a 63 point offensive explosion against lowly UNLV.
But I think it is really key to realize that neither of these teams have managed the sort of passing attack that has made them scoring teams in recent seasons. In four games, the starting QB for Nevada has 3 passing TDs, and the starting QB for La Tech also has 3 passing TDs. Nevada is one of the top 10 most penalized teams in NCAAF, and both teams know that this game will be won on the ground.
Louisiana Tech's defense absolutely stifled the also-usually-potent Hawaii offense in their last outing, and these offenses will be running the ball, and both defenses will be attacking the run. I can see a couple first half punts, and possibly a couple of drives ending in field goals, and that is all it will take for another midweek game to show us meager early offense. I know this trend will break eventually, but this is just the sort of match-up people love to overestimate in terms of offensive potential, and while I think Nevada's running game will prove superior, I don't think this shapes up as a shootout at all.
Good luck.
LATECH/NEVADA Under 28.5 First Half
In the interest of full disclosure, I posted a trend of 9 straight ESPN/non-Saturday NCAA games that have come in UNDER in the first half total, and I am confidently playing a 10th straight.
Today, at all local books, the first half total has curiously moved from O/U 28 to 28.5 - a very big hook to be sure. This is clearly a reaction to $$ coming in on the Over on all fronts, and the books needing to stem the tide. Yes La Tech has been a WAC offensive power in recent years, and true, Nevada is coming off a 63 point offensive explosion against lowly UNLV.
But I think it is really key to realize that neither of these teams have managed the sort of passing attack that has made them scoring teams in recent seasons. In four games, the starting QB for Nevada has 3 passing TDs, and the starting QB for La Tech also has 3 passing TDs. Nevada is one of the top 10 most penalized teams in NCAAF, and both teams know that this game will be won on the ground.
Louisiana Tech's defense absolutely stifled the also-usually-potent Hawaii offense in their last outing, and these offenses will be running the ball, and both defenses will be attacking the run. I can see a couple first half punts, and possibly a couple of drives ending in field goals, and that is all it will take for another midweek game to show us meager early offense. I know this trend will break eventually, but this is just the sort of match-up people love to overestimate in terms of offensive potential, and while I think Nevada's running game will prove superior, I don't think this shapes up as a shootout at all.
Good luck.
LATECH/NEVADA Under 28.5 First Half
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