Announcement

**Udog** · 10-06-2009, 12:24 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (4 - 0) at ST LOUIS (0 - 4) - 10/11/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 77-105 ATS (-38.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (2 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (0 - 4) - 10/11/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (2 - 2) at CAROLINA (0 - 3) - 10/11/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (0 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) - 10/11/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 129-90 ATS (+30.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (4 - 0) - 10/11/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (0 - 4) at BUFFALO (1 - 3) - 10/11/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (3 - 1) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/11/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 90-119 ATS (-40.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 49-75 ATS (-33.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (2 - 2) at DETROIT (1 - 3) - 10/11/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-50 ATS (+17.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (2 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 1) - 10/11/2009, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (3 - 1) at DENVER (4 - 0) - 10/11/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
DENVER is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (2 - 2) at ARIZONA (1 - 2) - 10/11/2009, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at SEATTLE (1 - 3) - 10/11/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-45 ATS (-30.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 0) at TENNESSEE (0 - 4) - 10/11/2009, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (3 - 1) at MIAMI (1 - 3) - 10/12/2009, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-06-2009, 12:26 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Sunday, 10/11/2009

Bye Weeks: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego

MINNESOTA at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 6-1 Over vs. St. Louis
ST LOUIS: 0-6 ATS at home off a road loss

DALLAS at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
DALLAS: 7-22 ATS Away off BB Unders
KANSAS CITY: 7-0 ATS after allowing 25+ pts BB games

WASHINGTON at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 7-0 Under off BB ATS losses
CAROLINA: 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards

TAMPA BAY at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 30-12 Under vs. NFC East
PHILADELPHIA: 16-5 ATS off a bye week

OAKLAND at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 3-17 ATS after scoring 17 pts or less 3 straight games
NY GIANTS: 12-4 ATS as a favorite

CLEVELAND at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 6-1 ATS in October
BUFFALO: 18-7 Under after allowing 35+ points

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 16-6 Over Away off division win
BALTIMORE: 9-1 ATS as a favorite

PITTSBURGH at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 46-25 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
DETROIT: 0-7 ATS at home off road game

ATLANTA at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:05 PM ET
ATLANTA: 8-1 Under Away 1st half of season
SAN FRANCISCO: 6-0 ATS at home off ATS win

NEW ENGLAND at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 6-1 Over at Denver
DENVER: 3-16 ATS after gaining 6+ yards/play previous game

HOUSTON at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
HOUSTON: 10-1 Over in dome games
ARIZONA: 7-0 Over off an Under

JACKSONVILLE at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 11-1 Over off BB Overs
SEATTLE: 19-45 ATS in October

INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE, 8:20 PM ET NBC
INDIANAPOLIS: 15-3 ATS off BB wins by 10+ points
TENNESSEE: 24-11 Over off BB ATS losses

Monday, 10/12/2009

NY JETS at MIAMI, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
NY JETS: 38-22 ATS Away vs. division
MIAMI: 4-14 ATS in home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-06-2009, 12:29 PM

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 11

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
Cincinnati is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BUFFALO
Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. KANSAS CITY
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ST. LOUIS
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. NY GIANTS
Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. DETROIT
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Detroit is 1-20 SU in its last 21 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CAROLINA
Washington is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Atlanta is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Atlanta's last 23 games on the road
San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta
San Francisco is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Atlanta

4:15 PM
HOUSTON vs. ARIZONA
Houston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games

4:15 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. SEATTLE
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

4:15 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Denver is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against New England
Denver is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against New England

8:20 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

Monday, October 12

8:30 PM
NY JETS vs. MIAMI
NY Jets are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games
Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Miami is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-11-2009, 12:05 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Houston at Arizona
The Texans look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as an underdog. Houston is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11

Game 401-402: Minnesota at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 135.006; St. Louis 122.071
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 37
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Dallas at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.240; Kansas City 126.336
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Over

Game 405-406: Washington at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.759; Carolina 129.160
Dunkel Line: Even; 33
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.148; Philadelphia 145.382
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 22; 49
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 14 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-14 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Oakland at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.808; NY Giants 140.927
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 16; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 14 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-14 1/2); Over

Game 411-412: Cleveland at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.990; Buffalo 125.276
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6); Over

Game 413-414: Cincinnati at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.347; Baltimore 142.959
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 14 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 8; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-8); Over

Game 415-416: Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.129; Detroit 122.765
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Atlanta at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 134.543; San Francisco 135.325
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: New England at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New England 133.175; Denver 138.180
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5; 37
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.867; Arizona 132.561
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2); Over

Game 423-424: Jacksonville at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 134.276; Seattle 128.932
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); N/A

Game 425-426: Indianapolis at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.639; Tennessee 131.841
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3 1/2); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 12

Game 427-428: NY Jets at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 136.544; Miami 131.188
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-1 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 10-11-2009, 12:08 AM

NFL
Write-Up

Week 5 games

Sunday, October 11

Vikings (4-0) @ Rams (0-4)-- Road game off of Monday night rivalry win for unbeaten Vikings; expect them to pound run (only 63 yards on 30 carries vs Green Bay) against winless Rams, who've been outscored 59-3 in second half of games this season. Vikings are 18-34 on third down last two games- they're scoring 29.5 ppg, are 3-1 vs spread as favorite this year, but 5-6 as favorite on road vs non-divisional opponents. Rams are 4-10 vs spread as home dog, but are 5-3 in last eight games as double digit dogs. NFC North road favorites are 3-0 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC West home teams are 0-3.

Cowboys (2-2) @ Chiefs (0-4)-- Dallas has two TDs, two FGs in seven red zone trips last two games; they've turned ball over six times in two losses, has no giveaways in their two wins- they should have their way against Chief team that scored 13.3 ppg in Cassel's three starts, gave up 156 rushing yards in loss to Giants last week. KC covered four of last 12 as home dog, are 3-11 as home dog in non-divisional games since 2001. Cowboys are 12-9 as road fave since '03, 14-6 in last 20 games as single digit favorite. NFC East road favorites are 4-2 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC West underdogs are 2-5.

Redskins (2-2) @ Panthers (0-3)-- Washington playing fourth poor team in a row, allowing 13 ppg in winning two of last three; they're 7-4-2 vs spread in last 13 games as road underdog, but just 2-5-3 as non-divisional underdog on road. Skins having trouble defending run, allowing 136.3 ypg last three games. Washington hasn't scored first half point in last two games, was outscored by 47-13 in first half, but outscored foes 43-15 after the half. Carolina turned ball over 12 times in three losses, is just 11-36 on 3rd down. Delhomme has been sacked nine times. NFC South faves are 5-0 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Buccaneers (0-4) @ Eagles (2-1)-- Bucs lost 16-13 in Maryland despite four takeaways; not many NFL teams win when they turn ball over four times, but Tampa gained just 229 yards in Johnson's first NFL start, averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt- it was Tampa's first cover in four games. Eagles have wins by 28-20 points; McNabb expected to return here, after Kolb averaged 7.0/9.1 ypp in his two starts. Philly covered seven of last nine as home favorite; all three of their '09 games went over. NFC East home favorites are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC South underdogs are 1-6, 1-3 on foreign soil.

Raiders (0-4) @ Giants (4-0)-- Mismatch on paper, not sure how Manning's sore foot changes things here; expect Big Blue to try and run ball more to keep Eli out of harm's way. Oakland lost last two games by combined score of 52-9; they've got ton of distractions, including potential assault charge against Cable for breaking assistant coach's jaw. Raiders allowed 173-215-120 rushing yards in last three games, bad news vs Jacobs/Bradshaw rushing tandem that rushed ball for 226-156 yards in last two games. Giants are 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite, but since 2003, they're 2-4 as double digit favorite.

Browns (0-4) @ Bills (1-3)-- Hard to endorse either side here; Cleveland lost its two road games 27-6/34-3; they're allowed average of 176 yards rushing a game, are already -7 in turnovers. Buffalo lost its last two games by combined 65-17 score, allowing 222-250 rushing yards. Bills went 3/out on 11 of last 23 drives. AFC East home favorites are 4-0 vs spread in non-division games. AFC North underdogs are 2-3. Buffalo is 15-9 vs spread in last 24 games as a home favorite. Browns are 15-21 vs spread in last 36 games as road underdog. Three of four Buffalo games went over the total. Not much to pick from here.

Bengals (3-1) @ Ravens (3-1)-- Interesting to see if Ravens put tough loss to Patriots behind them; after scoring 38-31-34 points in first three games, they were held to 21 in Foxboro, running ball only 17 times whole game. Baltimore covered seven of last eight as home favorite; they're 9-5-1 vs spread in last 15 games as divisional home favorite. Cincy is 10-7 in last 17 games as road dog. Bengals won six of last nine series games- underdog covered all four of their '09 contests. Home favorites are 8-8 vs spread in divisional games so far in 2009. Both teams have seen three of their first four games go over the total.

Steelers (2-2) @ Lions (1-3)-- Culpepper will start at QB if Stafford (knee) is unable to go; Detroit's three losses this year are by 18-14-24 points- they have been outscored 61-12 in second half of last three games, after outscoring foes 44-28 in first half. Steelers are 4-8 vs spread in last 12 games as road favorite. Pitt is 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as double digit favorite, 2-7 in last nine as non-divisional road favorite- they were outscored 58-31 in second half of last three games, forcing just one turnover in three games Polamalu missed. Lions converted 17-35 on 3rd down in last two games, they're shown some spark.

Falcons (2-1) @ 49ers (3-1)-- San Francisco won its last five home games by 19-10-3-13-35 points; they lead NFC West, held all four opponents under 100 rushing yards (average of 73.5). 49ers are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a home favorite. Hard to tell much about Falcon team that had early bye- they've scored only one second half TD in three games. Since 2006, Atlanta is 12-9 as road dog. Three of four Niner games stayed under total. NFC South underdogs are 1-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Atlanta has home Monday nighter with Chicago next week; 49ers have their bye next week.

Patriots (3-1) @ Broncos (4-0)-- Teacher vs pupil, as McDaniels is the former Patriot offensive coordinator; Broncos ran ball for 171.2 ypg last three games, haven't allowed second half point in last three games. Denver is surprise team of NFL, allowing just 6.5 ppg (two TDs/43 drives), with +7 turnover margin. Patriots scored 25-26-27 points in their three wins, didn't score TD in the 16-9 loss at Jets, their only road game so far. AFC East underdogs are 1-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. New England has three TDs, nine field goals on last 13 drives in opponents' red zone. All four Bronco games stayed under total.

Texans (2-2) @ Cardinals (1-2)-- Arizona hasn't scored first half TD in its two home games, outscored 34-9; they averaged just 5.5/5.2 ypp in two losses, 8.3 in its win at Jacksonville. Raiders are only one of four opponents Texans held under 6.1 ypp. Houston scored 34-24-29 points in last three games (nine TDs on last 26 drives); they allowed 153.5 rushing yards/game in first three games before holding lowly Oakland to 45 last week. AFC South teams are 5-3 vs the spread out of division; NFC West teams are 3-4. Texans are 5-3 vs spread in last 8 games as road dog. Arizona is 10-6 in last 16 games following a loss.

Jaguars (2-2) @ Seahawks (1-3)-- Seattle lost last three games, scoring just 36 points in ten quarters since Hasselbeck broke rib running near goal line out in SF. Last two Seattle foes averaged 8.0/8.6 ypp (combined 52-68/586 yards). NFC West home teams are 0-3 vs spread in non-division games, AFC South road teams are 3-1. Jacksonville crushed Tennessee 37-17 last week, running ball for 137 yards in game both starting tackles missed- they scored 68 points in winning last two games, after scoring 12-17 in losing their first two games. Last three Jacksonville games all went over the total.

Colts (4-0) @ Titans (0-4)-- Desperate times for Tennessee squad that plays Patriots next week and is staring 0-6 start in face; they lost only home game 34-31 to Texans, after blowing 21-3 lead. Titans covered seven of last nine as a home underdog. Colts are rolling, with younger legs at receiver helping juice up passing game- they scored 30.7 ppg in last three games. Indy averaged at least 7.5 ypp in all four games, gaining 12.3/10.8 in its two road games (wins by 27-23/31-10 scores). Home underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in divisional games this season. Last three Tennessee games all went over the total.

Monday, October 12

Jets (3-1) @ Dolphins (1-3)-- Two starting QBs have combined five starts in NFL; Jets covered just one of last five games as road favorite, while Miami is 5-7 vs spread in last dozen tries as home dog. Fish can run ball, gaining 239-149-250 yards on ground last three weeks- they converted 9-17 on third down in Henne's first start. His stronger arm allows Miami to stretch field more than they could with Pennington under center. Saint defense scored two TDs in last weeks win over Jets, as Sanchez finally made some rookie mistakes. In last ten seasons, Jets are 4-0 against the Dolphins on Monday Night football.

**Udog** · 10-11-2009, 12:14 AM

NFL

Sunday, October 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know: Colts at Titans
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3.5, 45.5)

Line movement

The Colts opened as 3-point favorites at most books before quickly being bumped up to -3.5.

That’s where the line has held steady for most of the week, with the public hammering the Colts and the so-called sharps siding with the underdog Titans.

The total has seen little movement, dropping just a half-point since opening at 46.

The betting has been split on the total, but don’t be surprised if you see a slight dip in the number, likely down to 45 before kickoff.

Role reversal

Last year it was the Colts that struggled out of the gate, dropping two of its first three and four of its first six games.

Of course, Indianapolis rebounded to win nine straight games and earn an early playoff exit against the Chargers.

The Titans are the ones suffering in 2009, losing four consecutive games to start the season.

Sure, they’ve faced a couple of tough matchups against the Steelers and Jets, but they’ve also been favored in games against Houston and Jacksonville.

To their credit, this will be just the second home game for the Titans this season.

Who are these guys?

The Colts offense hasn’t missed a beat since losing No. 2 wideout Anthony Gonzalez.

Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have proven to be more than adequate replacements.

After catching only four passes in his rookie season, Garcon has already hauled in 10 for 207 yards and two touchdowns this year.

The former BYU standout Collie has caught 12 passes for 131 yards and a score.

Reggie Wayne had no trouble summing up their performance.

"Whenever their number is called, they've been able to step up and hit home runs," he told the media.

Opportunity knocking?

How long will it be before the boo birds start raining down on Titans QB Kerry Collins.

Gone is the magic of 2008, as Collins has thrown for only 914 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions, while completing fewer than 56 percent of his passes.

After a promising preseason, many believe that it might finally be Vince Young’s time to shine.

Young isn’t ready to say that, at least not to the media.

"That is like saying you have no respect for your teammates. I have a lot of respect for my teammates and have their back 100 percent. If one guy is struggling, we are all struggling, and we need to put the pieces together to get everything right.''

If Collins struggles early, it will be interesting to see if Jeff Fisher shakes things up. At 0-4, what does he have to lose?

Trends and things

The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 October games, but have gone 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against AFC South opponents.

The Titans are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as 3.5 to 10-point underdogs, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests following an ATS loss.

The under has cashed in seven of the last eight matchups in this series, but the over is 37-17-1 in the Titans last 55 games following a SU defeat.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-11-2009, 10:02 AM

NFL

Sunday, October 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 5 betting notes
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-9)

Why Bengals cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Have won six of last nine meetings. The Bengals have been in every game this season and Carson Palmer has been clutch in the fourth quarter.

Why Ravens cover: Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Bengals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Baltimore. Bengals leading rusher Cedric Benson is dealing with a hip injury.

Total (42): Under is 4-1 in Ravens' last five home games.

Cleveland at Buffalo (-6)

Why Browns cover: Have won last two meetings. Derek Anderson played well last week and is happy that Braylon Edwards and his distractions were traded to the Jets. Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Buffalo's offensive line is hurting, Trent Edwards has been sacked 10 times in his last two games.

Why Bills cover: Browns are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Marshawn Lynch has run for 201 yards and a 4.6 average in two games against Cleveland.

Total (40 1/2): Under is 3-0-1 in Browns' last four road games and 4-1 in Bills' last five home games.

Washington at Carolina (-3.5)

Why Redskins cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings. Jake Delhomme has the NFC's worst passer rating. Clinton Portis could have a big day against a Carolina defense allowing over 187 yards rushing per game.

Why Panthers cover: Redskins are 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 games. Brought in veteran DT Hollis Thomas to help struggling defense.

Total (37 1/2): Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.

Pittsburgh at Detroit (+10.5)

Why Steelers cover: Have won six of past seven meetings. Lions are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games and could be without Matthew Stafford who has a knee injury. Rashard Mendenhall is coming off his best game as a pro and will get to test Detroit's 20th-ranked rush defense.

Why Lions cover: Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Held Ben Roethlisberger to 135 yards passing in their last meeting, intercepting him twice.

Total (44): Under is 4-0 in Lions' last four home games.

Dallas at Kansas City (+9)

Why Cowboys cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. K.C. Has the NFL's 28th-ranked pass defense. Larry Johnson has been unable to regain his All-Pro form and is averaging only 2.6 yards per carry.

Why Chiefs cover: Tony Romo has been under fire all season and is coming off back-to-back games without throwing a touchdown. Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. Matt Cassel has settled in over the past two games, throwing four TDs with no interceptions. Dallas could be without top receiver Roy Williams who has a rib injury.

Total (43): Over is 6-2-1 in Chiefs' last nine home games.

Oakland at N.Y. Giants (-16)

Why Raiders cover: Have won four of past five meetings. Eli Manning is dealing with a heel injury and might not play. David Carr would start in his place. Ahmad Bradshaw and Starting tight end Kevin Boss are also hampered by injuries and might not play.

Why Giants cover: Are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games. JaMarcus Russell (42.4 rating) has been nothing short of terrible and will be tested against the Giants' top-rated pass defense. Team will be pumped up to play first home game since Week 1.

Total (39): Under is 4-1-1 in Raiders' last six road games.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (-14.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: Have won last three meetings. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Have held Donovan McNabb in check in their past five meetings. He has averaged only 120 yards passing per game and has been picked off five times.

Why Eagles cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Bucs QB Josh Johnson was skittish in his first NFL start, looking to run instead of pass when under pressure. Will get both Brain Westbrook and McNabb back from injuries.

Total (43): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia.

Minnesota at St. Louis (+9.5)

Why Vikings cover: Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Minnesota's has the NFC's fifth ranked defense and should have no problem shutting down a Rams offense that has been terrible, averaging only six points per game.

Why Rams cover: Have won four of past five meetings. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in St. Louis. Brett Favre is battling a foot injury. Could find Minnesota in a letdown position after coming off a last-second win versus the 49ers and then an emotional victory over Green Bay.

Total (40 1/2): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in St. Louis.

Atlanta at San Francisco (-2.5)

Why Falcons cover: Will be well rested and prepared after coming off a bye week. San Fran will be without Frank Gore again. Glen Coffee has struggled in place of Gore averaging only 2.6 yards per carry. Will get Jerious Norwood back from his concussion.

Why 49ers cover: Have won three of past five meetings. Fourth-ranked rush defense could stuff Michael Turner who has had a hard time repeating last year 's breakout performance. Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in San Francisco. Shaun Hill (7-0) is undefeated as a starter at home.

Total (40 1/2): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in San Francisco.

Houston at Arizona (-5.5)

Why Texans cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Arizona has one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL, averaging only 60.7 yards per game.

Why Cardinals cover: Are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Sixth ranked rush defense could pose problems for Steve Slaton who has had a sluggish start to the season. Mario Williams is dealing with a shoulder injury and it would be a huge blow to the Texans' pass rush if he can't play.

Total (49): Over is 8-3 in Texans' last 11 road games and 12-3 in Cardinals' last 15 home games.

New England at Denver (+3)

Why Patriots cover: Are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 road games. Tom Brady has thrown for 1302 yards and eight touchdowns in his last five games against Denver. Broncos will be without leading rusher Correll Buckhalter who has an ankle injury.

Why Broncos cover: Have won five of past seven meetings. Are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings. After last week's heroics, Brandon Marshall has reportedly been beaming in the locker room and is ready to put the past behind him. Defense has been amazing this season, allowing only 6.5 points per game.

Total (41): Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Denver.

Jacksonville at Seattle (+3)

Why Jaguars cover: Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Mike Sims-Walker has become a big threat in the passing game and has 278 yards and three TDs in the Jags' last three games. Since shutting out St. Louis in Week 1, Seattle has allowed over 27-points per game.

Why Seahawks cover: Have won three of five meetings all-time. Are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games. Could get Matt Hasselbeck back from injury.

Total (TBA): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+3.5)

Why Colts cover: Are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Peyton Manning has been able to pick apart any defense this season and has thrown for over 300 yards in every game. The Titans have the league's worst pass defense. Without stifling defense of last season, Kerry Collins (68.9 rating, 6 INTs) has struggled to carry the team and could lose his job to Vince Young.

Why Titans cover: Have won three of past five meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. NFL's leading rusher Chris Johnson could help control the clock and keep Manning and company off the field.

Total (45 1/2): Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.

N.Y. Jets at Miami (+1)

Why Jets cover: Are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 meetings and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Miami. Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Miami QB Chad Henne was mediocre against Buffalo's 30th ranked defense last week and will have a tough time against a Jets' squad that is fifth in the NFL against the pass. Get linebacker Calvin Pace back from suspension.

Why Dolphins cover: Second-ranked rush offense could shut down Jets' run game and force rookie Mark Sanchez, who is coming off a four turnover game, to try and carry the offense. Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (36): Under is 4-0 in Jets' last four road games and 5-1 in their last six games overall.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-11-2009, 11:52 AM

NFL

Sunday, October 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos [4:15 PM ET]

New England (-3, O/U 41): Tom Brady has lost only once in his last 24 regular-season games. But Brady hasn’t had great success when playing in Denver, losing three of four times. He’s thrown seven touchdowns and been picked off seven times when facing the Broncos on the road. The Patriots buried the Broncos, 41-7, last year in Foxboro without Brady accumulating 404 yards. New England rushed for 257 yards in that victory. But Denver is the only team Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a losing record against, going 3-5. The Patriots rank fourth in the AFC in defense, holding foes to 287.5 yards per game. Foes have scored six touchdowns in four games versus the Patriots. The Patriots have yet to give up 300 yards passing. They could be getting back star linebacker Jerod Mayo. New England is 36-16-1 (69 percent) against the spread in its last 53 road contests.

The Patriots are 17-6 ATS as a road favorite.
The Over has cashed in 8 of New England’s last 11 games.

Key Injuries - Linebacker Jerod Mayo (knee) is questionable.
Running back Fred Taylor (ankle) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 22

Broncos: The Broncos are gunning to go 5-0 for the first time in 11 years. New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s switch to a 3-4 defense has paid huge dividends so far as the Broncos have allowed only 26 points, the fewest in the NFL. Denver’s defense also ranks first in fewest yards allowed (239.8) forcing turnovers (10) and having the highest number of sacks with 15. Quarterback Kyle Orton is completing 59 percent of his passes for 906 yards. He’s thrown five touchdown passes and has yet to be picked off. Orton was 20-for-29 for 243 yards and two touchdowns in a home victory last week versus Dallas. The Broncos, though, are 7-17-1 against the spread following a victory and 8-19-1 against the number in their last 28 home games. Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels served as offensive coordinator for New England the previous three years.

Denver is 7-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
The Under has cashed in 7 of the Broncos’ last eight home games.

Key Injuries - Running back Correll Buckhalter (ankle) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 19 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

Colts (-3.5, O/U 45.5): Thanks to Peyton Manning, the Colts are 4-0. Manning is having a superb season even by his lofty standards throwing for nine touchdowns. He is on pace to pass for a career-high 5,344 yards. The Colts have won a league-high 13 consecutive games. The Colts are averaging 30.6 points in their last three games. Manning should be in line for another big game against a porous banged-up Tennessee secondary that ranks last in pass defense. The Colts rank 13th in defense and expect to get back linebacker Gary Brackett, although star safety Bob Sanders probably remains at least a week away from playing. AFC South teams usually get up for Indianapolis. The Colts are just 5-12 against the spread in their last 17 division matchups. But they are 5-1-1 against the number in their last seven road contests and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 October games.

The Colts are 23-10 to the Over when on the road facing a team with a losing home mark.
The Under has cashed in 7 of the last eight meetings between the teams.

Key Injuries - Cornerback Kelvin Hayden (hamstring) is doubtful.
Cornerback Marlin Jackson (knee) is questionable.
Safety Bob Sanders (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Titans: The winless Titans haven’t started off this bad since 2006. There has been only one team – the 1992 Chargers – to open 0-4 and make the playoffs. The Titans have been hurt by the poor play of quarterback Kerry Collins, horrendous play from their defensive backfield and 11 turnovers. Last year, Tennessee turned the ball over just 13 times. The Titans are surrendering an average of 27 points after giving up 14.6 points per game last year. Collins has thrown six interceptions. He was picked off just seven times in 2008. Tennessee is yielding 282.3 yards through the air. Cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan (hamstring) and Nick Harper (ribs) have missed games and nickel back Vincent Fuller is out with a broken arm. The Titans usually play Indianapolis tough, though. They have covered five of the last six in the series and should be highly motivated for this nationally televised home division matchup.

The Titans are 7-0 ATS as a home underdog.
The Titans are 23-10-1 to the Over in their last 34 October games.

Key Injuries - Cornerback Cortland Finnegan (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21(Side of the Day)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Kaptain** · 10-11-2009, 05:04 PM

thanks

fellows

AS ALWAYS

**Udog** · 10-12-2009, 12:27 PM

NFL

Monday, October 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins [ESPN | 8:35 PM ET]

Jets (-1, O/U 36): The combination of new coach Rex Ryan, rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez and the No. 4 ranked defense in the NFL helped the Jets win their first three games. But now the Jets are on the road for a second straight week following their first loss, 24-10, at New Orleans. The Jets held the potent Saints’ offense to 10 points, but Sanchez was picked off three times. New York has failed to cover in eight of its last nine October games. The Jets also are 4-11-1 against the spread when facing a team with a losing record. New York will have standout linebacker Calvin Pace available for the first time this season following an end to his four-game suspension. Newly acquired wide receiver Braylon Edwards will be in uniform, too, giving Sanchez a dangerous deep threat. The Jets have covered 10 of their last 11 at Miami.

The Under has cashed in 5 of New York’s past six games.
The Jets have gone Under during their last 4 road contests.

Key Injuries - Wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) is questionable.
Cornerback Lito Sheppard (quad) is doubtful.
Cornerback Donald Strickland (ankle) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 19 (Side of the Day)

Dolphins: Miami finally broke through in the win column for the first time in four games, blowing out Buffalo 38-10 at home last Sunday. The game marked Chad Henne’s first NFL start. Henne is replacing the injured Chad Pennington, out for the season. Henne was sacked six times in the win. Miami rushed for 250 yards in the victory. The Dolphins lead the NFL in rushing, averaging 183.5 yards per game on the ground. Ronnie Brown entered Week 5 ranked No. 3 in the NFL in rushing. Miami frequently uses a wildcat formation, a formation in which they have yet to throw a pass. The Dolphins have covered only 28 percent of their last 51 home games going 14-36-1 against the spread. The Dolphins have failed to cover nine of the past 10 in this series. They are 0-6 against the number the last six times they’ve hosted the Jets.

The Under is 11-4 in Miami’s last 15 games.
The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - Quarterback Chad Pennington (shoulder) is out.
Linebacker Joey Porter (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Announcement

NFL Trendes and Indexes - Week 5 (10/11 - 10/12)

NFL Trendes and Indexes - Week 5 (10/11 - 10/12)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment