Tuesday Trends and Indexes 10/6 (MLB, NHL, Misc.)

[Udog]

MLB


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rockies and Phillies series breakdown and pick
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies

Series odds: Philadelphia -165

Pitching

Led by last year's World Series MVP Cole Hamels and 2008 AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, the Phillies have a much better starting rotation than the Rockies. That disparity got even larger Saturday when Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa injured his groin against the Dodgers, leaving his availability for the first round uncertain.

Beyond his two big-name lefties, Philly manager Charlie Manuel can turn to rookie-of-the-year candidate JA Happ, under-rated Joe Blanton or future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez. The Rockies will likely throw Ubaldo Jimenez in the first game and Aaron Cook in Game 2. If De La Rosa can't pitch Game 3, Rockies manager Jim Tracy will have to choose between the struggling Jason Marquis or Jason Hammel.

Both teams' bullpens are average at best, and Philadelphia's biggest weakness is closing out games. Brad Lidge (11 blown saves) has brought a gas can out to the mound in the ninth inning all year. Manuel might opt to have Ryan Madson finish games instead. The Rockies have no such problems with their closer, Huston Street.

Edge: Phillies

Offense

Both teams ranked in the bottom half of the Majors in batting average this season, but they've still managed to light up the scoreboard most nights. The Phillies hit the second-most home runs in baseball this year and were fourth in runs scored, while the Rockies were seventh in bombs and sixth in runs.

Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard all scored 100 runs for Philadelphia this season, while Jayson Werth (97 runs) and Raul Ibanez (93) fell just short of the century mark. All six, along with Carlos Ruiz, reached double digits in home runs.

By contrast, the Rockies have only one player who scored 100 runs this season (Troy Tulowitzki) and no one reached the 100 RBI plateau. Colorado pieces its offense together with contributions from many different players. Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Chris Iannetta, Clint Barmes, Ian Stewart, Seth Smith and Brad Hawpe all drove in 50-plus runs, while Garrett Atkins and Ryan Spilborghs each knocked home 48.

Edge: Phillies

Intangibles

Philadelphia is the defending World Series champion and loaded with All-Stars. On paper, this series is a mismatch. But if baseball was decided on paper, the Rockies wouldn't be here in the first place.

They defied all logic in 2007 by putting together a Cinderella run to reach the World Series, and they came out of nowhere this season as well. Colorado is 74-42 since Tracy took over the team from the fired Clint Hurdle two months into the season.

Edge: Rockies

Pick: Phillies in five games.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

MLB


Tuesday, October 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins [TBS | 5:07 PM ET]

Tigers: Hoping to win their first division title since 1987, the Tigers are turning to 20-year-old rookie Rick Porcello in their one-game playoff versus the Twins. The Tigers led Minnesota by seven games on Sept. 6. But since then Detroit has gone 11-15. The Tigers have lost seven of their last 11 games at the Metrodome. The teams have played 18 times this season with Minnesota winning 11 times. There have been more than eight runs scored in 15 of the 18 games. Porcello (14-9, 4.04 ERA) has faced the Twins twice in the last 2 ½ weeks. He’s been tagged for nine runs (seven earned) in 10 innings, while giving up 15 hits and two homers. Detroit has lost in four of Porcello’s past five starts. The Tigers are 27-58 the past 85 times they’ve been a road underdog, but have won five of their last seven away games.

The Under is 9-3 in Rick Porcello’s last 12 American League Central Division starts.
The Under has cashed the past 4 times Porcello has faced the Twins.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Twins (-$1.60, O/U 8): The Twins have won four in a row and 16 of their last 20 games to force this one-game playoff for the division title. They are 9-1 in their last 10 home contests. Right-hander Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA) is slated to start. He’s faced Detroit four times this season. The Tigers have banged him for 15 runs on 29 hits in 20 innings. Magglio Ordonez is batting .462 against Baker and Carlos Guillen is hitting .407 versus Baker. Curtis Granderson has four homers in 45 at-bats against Baker. The over has cashed in six of Baker’s past seven starts against the Tigers. Baker may have fatigue issues, having worked a career-high 194 innings. He is 5-4 with a 5.28 ERA in day games this season. The Twins have won in six of Baker’s last seven home games. However, Minnesota has lost in its last seven home playoff games.

The Twins are 20-7 the past 27 times Scott Baker has been favored.
The Over is 12-5-1 the last 18 times Baker has faced a team with a winning mark.

Key Injuries - Justin Morneau (back) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (OVER - Total of the Day)


Side of the Day is in college football today. Click the first Matchup Link in post #1


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel


Montreal at Calgary
The Flames look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is coming off a 2-1 win at Buffalo and is just 3-13 in its last 16 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Calgary is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-160). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.743; Carolina 10.490
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-165); 6
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+155); Under

Game 3-4: Ottawa at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.616; Toronto 10.944
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+105); Over

Game 5-6: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.534; Philadelphia 13.366
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Over

Game 7-8: Montreal at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.627; Calgary 12.281
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-160); Under

Game 9-10: Anaheim at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.107; Minnesota 11.921
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Under

Game 11-12: Dallas at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.539; Edmonton 10.654
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+135); Over

Game 13-14: San Jose at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.775; Los Angeles 11.685
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+145); Under




NHL
Long Sheet


Tuesday, October 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) at CAROLINA (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/6/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 24-59 ATS (+97.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 10-27 ATS (+37.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-20 ATS (+27.9 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 9-28 ATS (+44.8 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 16-42 ATS (+74.2 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 12-27 ATS (+39.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 16-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 10-4 (+4.3 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 10-4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.8 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OTTAWA (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) at TORONTO (0-2-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/6/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 79-90 ATS (-37.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 13-23 ATS (-20.7 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 15-22 ATS (-20.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 5-14 ATS (-18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 14-23 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 12-26 ATS (+41.3 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 78-93 ATS (-58.8 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
TORONTO is 117-112 ATS (-62.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-6 (+5.0 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-6-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.4 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at PHILADELPHIA (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/6/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 50-33 ATS (+15.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 20-11 ATS (+33.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 49-55 ATS (-55.9 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 83-85 ATS (-69.3 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 8-7-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.5 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONTREAL (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) at CALGARY (2-0-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/6/2009, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 1-1-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ANAHEIM (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) at MINNESOTA (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/6/2009, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 107-86 ATS (+202.2 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 21-16 ATS (+39.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-3 (+2.4 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-3-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.5 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (0-0-1-0, 1 pts.) at EDMONTON (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/6/2009, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-2 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-2-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE (1-1-0-0, 2 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (0-1-0-0, 0 pts.) - 10/6/2009, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 33-33 ATS (-24.8 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 127-105 ATS (+21.1 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 87-112 ATS (+207.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 9-5-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NHL
Short Sheet


Tuesday, 10/6/2009

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA, 7:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 2-13 SU after allowing 5+ goals
CAROLINA: 6-1 SU at home against Tampa Bay

OTTAWA at TORONTO, 7:00 PM ET
OTTAWA: 22-15 SU after one or more consecutive overs
TORONTO: 5-11 SU as a home favorite

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA, 7:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 25-9 SU off a home win by 2+ goals
PHILADELPHIA: 85-65 SU at home after a win by 2+ goals

MONTREAL at CALGARY, 9:00 PM ET
MONTREAL: 6-14 SU off a road win by 1 goal
CALGARY: 35-12 SU at home after BB games where 7+ total goals scored

ANAHEIM at MINNESOTA, 9:00 PM ET
ANAHEIM: 21-16 SU AWAY when the total is 5.5
MINNESOTA: 9-18 SU on Tuesday nights

DALLAS at EDMONTON, 9:30 PM ET
DALLAS: 58-20-3 SU against Edmonton
EDMONTON: 14-26 SU after one or more consecutive overs

SAN JOSE at LOS ANGELES, 10:30 PM ET
SAN JOSE: 4-9 SU AWAY off a road win
LOS ANGELES: 5-0 SU after allowing 6+ goals

** (TC) Denotes Time Change




NHL
Write-Up


Tuesday, October 6

Hot Teams
-- Flames won their first two games, scoring nine goals. Canadiens won their first two games, both in OT.
-- Flyers won their first two games of season, 2-0/5-2. Washington won its first two games, 6-4/4-1.

Cold Teams
-- Carolina lost its first two games, 2-0/7-2. Lightning lost their first game 6-3 in Atlanta.
-- Ottawa and Toronto both lost their first game of the season.
-- Minnesota, Anaheim both lost their first game, each scoring one goal.
-- Dallas, Edmonton both lost their first game, both by a goal.
-- Kings lost their first game, 6-3. San Jose split its first two games.

Series Records
-- Carolina won its last seven games vs Tampa Bay, who are 1-5 in last six visits to Raleigh.
-- Maple Leafs won eight of last eleven against Ottawa.
-- Caps won six of last nine visits to Philadelphia.
-- Ducks lost six of last nine visits to Minnesota.
-- Stars won eght of last 10 games vs Edmonton, who lost their last five visits to Dallas.
-- San Jose won eight of its last ten games against the Kings.

Totals
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Carolina-Tampa Bay games.
-- Four of last six Toronto-Ottawa games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Philly-Washington games.
-- Three of last four Anaheim-Minnesota games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Dallas-Edmonton games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen San Jose-Los Angeles games.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NHL
Additional


Tuesday, October 6


Refer to post #1 for Matchup Links to more trends/stats *


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
OTTAWA vs. TORONTO
Ottawa is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Ottawa is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Ottawa
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Ottawa

7:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home

7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 12 games

9:00 PM
ANAHEIM vs. MINNESOTA
Anaheim is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Anaheim is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Anaheim
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 15 games when playing at home against Anaheim

9:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. CALGARY
Montreal is 1-5-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Montreal is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

9:30 PM
DALLAS vs. EDMONTON
Dallas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Dallas is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
Edmonton is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Dallas

10:30 PM
SAN JOSE vs. LOS ANGELES
San Jose is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Jose's last 13 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games at home
Los Angeles is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes (-150, 6)

The news got worse for Carolina. The Canes are 0-2 and now will be without the services of forward Eric Cole. The winger broke a bone in his leg and won’t be back for at least four to six weeks.

Cole was a big part of the Hurricanes late push last season after being reacquired from the Oilers. Tim Conboy is expected to step into Cole’s spot in the lineup.

The scrappy forward should fit into the direction coach Paul Maurice says he wants his team moving in.

“There’s only one way to get better: You’ve got to grind and fight, and I think we have to get more aggressive in what we’re doing,” Maurice told the Raleigh News & Observer. “If we’re going to be giving up goals during games, we might as well do it while we’re working.”

Sounds like there could be some fisticuffs in this game. Expect both sides to cash in on the man advantage and the final score to go over the total.

Pick: Over


Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers (-145, 5.5)

Edmonton backers are praying that the team’s first game isn’t a sign of things to come. New goalie Nikolai Khabibulin was front and center in the Oilers’ 4-3 loss to the Flames. He let one slip past him on the first Calgary shot and the Flames scored a late goal after Knabibulin whiffed on a clearing attempt.

“The way it happens is not a very nice way to being with a new team,” he told the Edmonton Sun. “I think it is the sign of a good team the way they supported me after the game and again this morning.”

One bad night can easily be forgotten but patience will evaporate if the high-priced free agent signee can’t deliver the goods.

The Oilers should pick up the win in their building, but the Stars will put up a good fight, especially if they Jere Lehtinen back in the lineup.

Pick: Edmonton


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Len's Top 5


Happy Tuesday everyone, here's my Top 5 for October 6, 2009 from Len Berman Sports.

1. Quick Hits

Brett Favre throws 3 touchdown passes to lead undefeated Minnesota to a 30-23 win over his former team, the Green Bay Packers.
The Twins and Tigers meet today in Minneapolis at 5:07pm ET to decide the AL Central.
ESPN.com is reporting that Bobby Valentine could be in line for the Florida Marlins job. Wouldn't you rather see him at Citi Field?
Serena Williams regains the #1 ranking. Luckily it's done by computer, so she can't shove anything down its throat.

2. Meet the Mess

The Mets have shaken up their coaching staff. Two coaches won't be back next season. Woo hoo. Start printing playoff tickets. And in a startling upset, the entire training staff will return, but they'll change some "medical protocols." Like what, how to actually do medical training?

3. Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

So what's more important, individual stats or team goals? Another way of putting it, if you assemble a team of stars does that guarantee you anything? Yes, Yankee fans, this one's for you. The New York Times pointed out that for this decade, 2000-2009, the Yankees have the pitcher with the most wins (Andy Pettitte), the batter with the most homers (A-Rod), and the top three in runs scored (A-Rod, Damon, and Jeter.) And with all of that they have exactly one World Championship to show for it. Discuss among yourselves.

4. Politics Schmolotics

And I thought sports fans were rabid. You political scientists are even wackier. In response to all the political implications of President Obama's trip to Copenhagen, and Chicago losing out on their Olympic bid, some of you subscribers couldn't wait to vent.
David R. wrote: "If you want to blame anyone for what happened to the U.S. and Obama in Copenhagen, blame his staff for terrible advance political work. You don’t put your boss into a no-win situation."
From Michael D. "Your daily email is great but please stay out of politics -
You're talking about a president who goes around the world apologizing for all the evils America has done and then goes to Copenhagen to tell them how great we are - then he is surprised when they don't choose us for the games."
From Jeffrey H. "Get off the President's back will you, it's going to take more than one or two terms to fix this disaster, this guy will be long gone, he's just the starting point guard."
And Alex M. wrote "I implore you to stay away from the political rhetoric. If anything, it was our pompous media that was our downfall for not receiving the Olympics."
Yup...when it doubt, blame the media!

5. Line of the Week

Chris Evert is 3/4's of the way home. After failed marriages to an American (Skier Andy Mill), A Brit (Tennis player John Lloyd), and an Aussie (Golfer Greg Norman), The Washington Times points out that "she is only a Frenchman away from the matrimonial grand slam." Of course Liz Taylor has completed her own version of two slams (See below).

Happy Birthday: Red Sox pitcher Dennis "Oil Can" Boyd. 50.
Bonus Birthday: "Leaving Las Vegas" actress Elisabeth Shue. 46.

Today in Sports: 20-year old Orioles pitcher Jim Palmer is the youngest to pitch a World Series shutout. (He beat Sandy Koufax and the Dodgers 6-0 in game 2.) 1966.
Bonus Event: 8 is enough. Elizabeth Taylor marries Larry Fortensky. If you're scoring at home it was the 8th time she got married to 7 different guys. 1991.