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Sunday NFL 11/16........
Had a nice 4-2 run last week, these are my lucky seven for this weeks action..........
5 STAR: CINCINNATI (+6.5) OVER Kansas City
I really wish that Chad Johnson would not have given the Chiefs any bulletin board material with his guarantee of victory, but I really like the Bengals in this spot. The Bengals have been playing very well and they have a shot at pulling off the upset here. Four of the Bengals five losses have been by a touchdown or less and three of the Chiefs four road wins have been by a touchdown or less so the points may come into play here. Road favorites after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread are only 15-36 against the spread the last ten seasons and the Chiefs are only 9-23 against the spread after playing 3 straight games as a favorite since 1992. This game could be a shoot out, Kansas City has plenty of weapons, but the Bengals have some weapons of their own also, and Cincinnati is 6-1 against the spread in home games versus good offensive teams that are scoring 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Bengals are also 7-3 against the spread in the second of back to back home games and 7-1 against the spread in November against opponents off of a straight up win. Take the points here!
5 STAR: Dallas (+4) OVER NEW ENGLAND
I have to go with the Tuna here against another of his former teams. Parcells will have the 'Boys ready to play once again and he is 44-23-2 against the spread in his coaching career when an underdog of more than three points. The Patriots have been on a roll covering eight straight games and have had an extra week to get ready for this Sunday night game, but New England is only 1-5 against the spread in home games after a bye week since 1992 and Dallas is 10-2 against the spread versus teams coming off of a bye week. Also, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won three or more consecutive games against the spread, are only 12-31 against the spread in November games. I'll take the 'Boys here!
3 STAR: Jacksonville (+10.5) OVER TENNESSEE
Tennessee has been on a roll, but they might not be focused for a Jaguars team that only has two wins on the season. The Jags, despite only two wins, have actually gained more yards that they have allowed, and have lost many games where they have actually out played their opponents. I look for them to give Tennessee a fight in this game. Teams off of a straight up and against the spread win who have scored 30 or more points in five straight games are only 1-10-1 against the spread. Jacksonville is 5-1 against the spread in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992, 14-4 against the spread after a close win by 7 points or less over a division rival since 1992, 8-2 against the spread after an upset win over a division rival as an underdog since 1992 and they are 5-1 against the spread versus poor passing defenses that are allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. I'll take the double digit points here!
3 STAR: Arizona (+6.5) OVER CLEVELAND
I can't trust a three win team laying this many points, and it is hard to tell what kind of mental state the Browns are in after head coach Butch Davis released one of their best and most liked players in receiver Kevin Johnson. Also, road underdogs that are bad teams with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% on the season that are coming off of a road loss are 67-34 against the spread since 1983. The Browns are in disarray right now, and I will jump on the points here!
2 STAR: CHICAGO (+6) OVER St. Louis
The Bears have been playing better football since Chris Chandler has taken over at quarterback, and I never like laying points on the road with the Rams. St. Louis is only 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games as a road favorite. Chicago is 14-3 against the spread as a non-division home underdog of 3 points or more and they are 8-1-1 against the spread in November games against non-division teams. The Bears are also 5-1 against the spread as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons. I'll take the points here!
2 STAR: San Diego (+8) OVER DENVER
What a difference a quarterback can make! After showing no signs of life for two months, the Chargers offense suddenly looked unstoppable with Doug Flutie running the show. San Diego still has serious problems on defense, but at least now they can match the other teams scores. Road underdogs after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game are a solid 44-18 against the spread over the last 10 seasons and underdogs with a terrible defense that is allowing 360 or more total yards per game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 43-23 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. The Chargers are 6-0 against the spread after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992, 12-4 against the spread in road games after a win by 14 or more points since 1992 and 14-2 against the spread in road games after gaining 7 or more passing yards per attempt last game since 1992. The Broncos are only 1-7 against the spread when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of 25% of worse in the second half of the season since 1992. I'll take the points here!
2 STAR: OAKLAND (+4.5) OVER Minnesota
The Raiders have had a disaster of a season, but the Vikings might be the team feeling the pressure here. After opening the season with a 6-0 record, the Minnesota Vikings have dropped three straight, yielding 101 points in the losing streak. The Vikings are only 1-6 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons and home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and have a winning percentage of 25% or less are 31-10 against the spread the last ten seasons. I'll take the Raiders here!
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 5-8 (-19.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 15-15-1 (-4.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 9-12-1 (-8.3 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 1-2 (-1.3 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 30-37-2 (-32.1 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $3210.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
5 STAR: CINCINNATI (+6.5) OVER Kansas City
I really wish that Chad Johnson would not have given the Chiefs any bulletin board material with his guarantee of victory, but I really like the Bengals in this spot. The Bengals have been playing very well and they have a shot at pulling off the upset here. Four of the Bengals five losses have been by a touchdown or less and three of the Chiefs four road wins have been by a touchdown or less so the points may come into play here. Road favorites after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread are only 15-36 against the spread the last ten seasons and the Chiefs are only 9-23 against the spread after playing 3 straight games as a favorite since 1992. This game could be a shoot out, Kansas City has plenty of weapons, but the Bengals have some weapons of their own also, and Cincinnati is 6-1 against the spread in home games versus good offensive teams that are scoring 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Bengals are also 7-3 against the spread in the second of back to back home games and 7-1 against the spread in November against opponents off of a straight up win. Take the points here!
5 STAR: Dallas (+4) OVER NEW ENGLAND
I have to go with the Tuna here against another of his former teams. Parcells will have the 'Boys ready to play once again and he is 44-23-2 against the spread in his coaching career when an underdog of more than three points. The Patriots have been on a roll covering eight straight games and have had an extra week to get ready for this Sunday night game, but New England is only 1-5 against the spread in home games after a bye week since 1992 and Dallas is 10-2 against the spread versus teams coming off of a bye week. Also, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won three or more consecutive games against the spread, are only 12-31 against the spread in November games. I'll take the 'Boys here!
3 STAR: Jacksonville (+10.5) OVER TENNESSEE
Tennessee has been on a roll, but they might not be focused for a Jaguars team that only has two wins on the season. The Jags, despite only two wins, have actually gained more yards that they have allowed, and have lost many games where they have actually out played their opponents. I look for them to give Tennessee a fight in this game. Teams off of a straight up and against the spread win who have scored 30 or more points in five straight games are only 1-10-1 against the spread. Jacksonville is 5-1 against the spread in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992, 14-4 against the spread after a close win by 7 points or less over a division rival since 1992, 8-2 against the spread after an upset win over a division rival as an underdog since 1992 and they are 5-1 against the spread versus poor passing defenses that are allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. I'll take the double digit points here!
3 STAR: Arizona (+6.5) OVER CLEVELAND
I can't trust a three win team laying this many points, and it is hard to tell what kind of mental state the Browns are in after head coach Butch Davis released one of their best and most liked players in receiver Kevin Johnson. Also, road underdogs that are bad teams with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% on the season that are coming off of a road loss are 67-34 against the spread since 1983. The Browns are in disarray right now, and I will jump on the points here!
2 STAR: CHICAGO (+6) OVER St. Louis
The Bears have been playing better football since Chris Chandler has taken over at quarterback, and I never like laying points on the road with the Rams. St. Louis is only 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games as a road favorite. Chicago is 14-3 against the spread as a non-division home underdog of 3 points or more and they are 8-1-1 against the spread in November games against non-division teams. The Bears are also 5-1 against the spread as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons. I'll take the points here!
2 STAR: San Diego (+8) OVER DENVER
What a difference a quarterback can make! After showing no signs of life for two months, the Chargers offense suddenly looked unstoppable with Doug Flutie running the show. San Diego still has serious problems on defense, but at least now they can match the other teams scores. Road underdogs after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game are a solid 44-18 against the spread over the last 10 seasons and underdogs with a terrible defense that is allowing 360 or more total yards per game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 43-23 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. The Chargers are 6-0 against the spread after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992, 12-4 against the spread in road games after a win by 14 or more points since 1992 and 14-2 against the spread in road games after gaining 7 or more passing yards per attempt last game since 1992. The Broncos are only 1-7 against the spread when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of 25% of worse in the second half of the season since 1992. I'll take the points here!
2 STAR: OAKLAND (+4.5) OVER Minnesota
The Raiders have had a disaster of a season, but the Vikings might be the team feeling the pressure here. After opening the season with a 6-0 record, the Minnesota Vikings have dropped three straight, yielding 101 points in the losing streak. The Vikings are only 1-6 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons and home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and have a winning percentage of 25% or less are 31-10 against the spread the last ten seasons. I'll take the Raiders here!
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 5-8 (-19.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 15-15-1 (-4.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 9-12-1 (-8.3 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 1-2 (-1.3 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 30-37-2 (-32.1 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $3210.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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