Announcement

**Udog** · 09-23-2009, 08:27 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

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Sunday, September 27

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TENNESSEE (0 - 2) at NY JETS (2 - 0) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) at HOUSTON (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 2) at BALTIMORE (2 - 0) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (2 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 1) at DETROIT (0 - 2) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 45-72 ATS (-34.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (0 - 2) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 72-102 ATS (-40.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 0) at MINNESOTA (2 - 0) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (2 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (0 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 78-50 ATS (+23.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 89-118 ATS (-40.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 48-74 ATS (-33.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (2 - 0) at OAKLAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 27-52 ATS (-30.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
OAKLAND is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 0) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 9/27/2009, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 28

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CAROLINA (0 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 9/28/2009, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 09-23-2009, 08:29 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Sunday, 9/27/2009

TENNESSEE at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 1-7 ATS off SU division loss as home favorite
NY JETS: 7-0 Under after allowing 9pts or less BB games

JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 2-12 ATS on grass field
HOUSTON: 11-2 Over vs. division

KANSAS CITY at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 2-6 ATS off division loss
PHILADELPHIA: 8-0 ATS off home loss by 21+ points

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 0-4 ATS as double digit underdog
BALTIMORE: 8-1 ATS as favorite

NY GIANTS at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 16-3 ATS in road games
TAMPA BAY: 28-12 Under vs. NFC East

WASHINGTON at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 7-0 Under as a favorite
DETROIT: 1-8 ATS as home underdog

GREEN BAY at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 6-0 Over on turf
ST LOUIS: 1-9 ATS in September

SAN FRANCISCO at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 11-16 ATS as an underdog
MINNESOTA: 21-9 Under off 2 game road trip

ATLANTA at NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 0-6 ATS off BB wins
NEW ENGLAND: 11-3 Over off road game

CHICAGO at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
CHICAGO: 3-11 ATS off SU win
SEATTLE: 9-2 ATS as home favorite

NEW ORLEANS at BUFFALO, 4:05 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 8-1 ATS as favorite
BUFFALO: 5-1 Under after scoring 30+ points

MIAMI at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
MIAMI: 6-0 ATS Away vs. conference
SAN DIEGO: 8-1 Over in September

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI, 4:15 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 28-7 Under Away off SU loss
CINCINNATI: 8-21 ATS at home in September

DENVER at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
DENVER: 0-8 ATS off home win
OAKLAND: 7-2 Over in September

INDIANAPOLIS at ARIZONA, 8:20 PM ET NBC
INDIANAPOLIS: n/a
ARIZONA: 6-0 Over off SU dog win

Monday, 9/28/2009

CAROLINA at DALLAS, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
CAROLINA: 16-5 ATS off road division loss
DALLAS: 9-4 Over after scoring 30+ points

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 09-23-2009, 08:31 AM

NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Sunday, September 27

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ENGLAND
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games on the road
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
New England is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games at home

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ST. LOUIS
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Green Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
Jacksonville is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Jacksonville is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PHILADELPHIA
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. TAMPA BAY
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. MINNESOTA
San Francisco is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota
San Francisco is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. NY JETS
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games
NY Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Tennessee
NY Jets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DETROIT
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
CHICAGO vs. SEATTLE
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Chicago is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

4:05 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. BUFFALO
New Orleans is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games

4:15 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

4:15 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN DIEGO
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

4:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

8:20 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. ARIZONA
Indianapolis is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Monday, September 28

8:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Carolina

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**Udog** · 09-23-2009, 10:10 AM

NFL
Write-Up

NFL Week 3 games

Sunday, Setember 27

Titans (0-2) @ Jets (2-0)-- Tennessee is 10-3-1 vs spread as a road dog since 2006; huge test for Jet team that backed its talk last week and beat a division rival, but is just 3-7-1 as home favorite last two years. Titans are desperate to win, having lost last two games by FG each- they ran for 240 yards last week, but allowed 321-357 passing yards in first two games (6.8/9.2 ypp), and may miss departed DC Schwartz more than expected. Tennessee is 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten games as non-divisional road dog. Jets still haven't allowed a TD on defense- their opponents have run ball 33 times for total of 121 yards (3.7).

Jaguars (0-2) @ Texans (1-1)-- Home side won nine of last 12 series games, as Jags lost five of last six visits here, the last three by 20-14-13 points. Jaguars lost first two games, going 3/out eight times on 22 drives- they're 24-11 vs the spread in last 35 games as single digit underdog. Houston gave up 240 rushing yards last week, but averaged 9.2 yards/pass; they're 7-5 as home favorite the last 2+ years. Jags are 11-6-1 as road dog in divisional games since '01. Average total in last four series games, 55.6. In its brief history, Houston is 3-2 against spread when favored at home against a division rival.

Chiefs (0-2) @ Eagles (1-1)-- Kolb likely to start again with Eagles having bye next week; Vick will make Philly debut here in Wildcat sets, vs Chief defense that held Oakland to 7-24/99 passing last week, but gave up winning drive in last minute. KC lost to Raider team they outgained 409-166; they're 10-7 as a road underdog since '07. Interesting note for later in week-- Chiefs are 7-0 as a double digit dog since '02, 12-20-1 as single digit dog since '05, 6-9-1 as a road dog vs non-divisional foe. Philly covered seven of last nine as a home favorite. Home favorites are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional games this season.

Browns (0-2) @ Ravens (2-0)-- Baltimore is 8-4 in last dozen series games, as Browns lost five of last six visits here, with all five losses by 10+ points- they are 1-5 vs spread as double digit dog since '07, 4-9 as divisional road dog since '04. Cleveland gave up 61 points in losing first two games by 14-21 points; in two games, they've been outrushed 411-143. Ravens had great win last week in San Diego; they've scored 69 points in first two games, outrushing opponents by 328-92, winning by 14-5 points, but could they be looking ahead to a game in Foxboro next week? Baltimore is 8-5 as divisional home favorite since 2003.

Giants (2-0) @ Buccaneers (0-2)-- Trap game for Giants, coming off couple of division rivalry wins, while Bucs lost first two games, giving up 34-33 points. Tampa allowed 336 yards on 59 rushes so far (5.7 ypc), bad news vs diverse Giant attack that averaged 8.3/8.7 ypa in first two games, but has struggled in red zone, kicking six FGs with no TDs in eight RZ drives. Big Blue is 11-4 as a road favorite since '05, 26-13 as single digit underdog since '05- they scored a defensive TD in both games this year. Bucs are 15-20 as single digit dog since 2004, but they are 5-1-1 vs spread as non-divisional home underdog since '00.

Redskins (1-1) @ Lions (0-2)-- Home team is 10-3 in last 13 series games, as Redskins won last three meetings vs Detroit by 7-31-8 points. Lions lost their last 19 games, are 12-27 as single digit dog since '05, 4-11-1 in last 16 games as a non-divisional home dog. Lions allowed nine TDs on 22 drives this year; foes are completing 80.6% of their passes. Underdog is 4-0-1 vs spread in last five Redskin games. Washington offense was putrid last week, with three FGs on four RZ trips, failing to score TD vs lowly Rams; they lost RG Thomas for season, but are 5-2-1 against the pointspread as road favorite since '05.

Packers (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)-- Green Bay OL is struggling; they've run ball for just 165 yards in two games, allowed 10 sacks; they've scored only one TD in second half, are on upset alert against hungry Ram club that showed defensive grit last week, holding Redskins without TD. St Louis lost its last 12 games, is 4-9 vs spread as home dog last two years, 5-18 in last 23 games as single digit dog. Green Bay is 8-5 as road favorite since '03, 12-8 in last 20 games as single digit favorite. Rams have one TD on 18 drives, completed only half its passes in losing first two games by 28-2. Average total in last five series tilts is 54.4.

49ers (2-0) @ Vikings (2-0)-- Week 3's only meeting of unbeatens; Niners lost last three visits here by 7-24-28 points (last two 40-16/35-7), but in winning first two games, 49ers held opponents to two TDs on 24 drives (11 3/outs), and allowed only 106 rushing yards, so good test here vs Peterson-led Viking attack that has 337 rushing yards in first two games, scoring seven TDs on 22 drives- they outscored foes 44-7 in second half of games, after trailing both by FG at the half. Vikings are 15-10 as single digit since '05, 14-9 as home favorite in non-divisional games. 49ers are 9-20-1 as non-divisional road underdog.

Falcons (2-0) @ Patriots (1-1)-- Belichick is 15-3 vs spread off a loss since '03 as BC alum Ryan returns to Beantown with 2-0 Falcon squad that is diverse on offense, stingy on defense, allowing three TDs on 19 drives in first two Ws. Patriots have +58 pass/run ratio so far, 14 more than any other team; they've scored only three TDs in eight red zone drives, as Welker's absence was huge in loss at Swamp last week. Patriots are 13-18-1 as home favorite since 2005, but 6-4 as non-divisional HF last two years. Falcons are 12-8 as road dog since '06, 9-4 in last thirteen games as non-divisional road underdog.

Bears (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)-- Hasselbeck is out (broken rib); Wallace isn't a quality backup (Seattle was shut out in second half last week, after a one-yard TD pass on first play after Hasselbeck got hurt), so Bears are favored on road after upsetting Steelers at home. Seattle is 14-9-1 vs spread off a loss since '05; they're 3-2-1 as home dog since '03. Since '06, Bears are just 1-5-1 vs spread if favored by 3 or less points- they've run ball for just 129 yards in first couple games. Seahawks have just one takeaway in splitting pair of division games. Chicago lost last four visits to Seattle, with their only win way back in 1976.

Saints (2-0) @ Bills (1-1)-- Payton's high-flying Saints scored 93 points in its first two wins, most points scored in Weeks 1-2 since 1968 Raiders scored 95. Road team won last four series games; Saints won two of last three visits here. Buffalo hasn't gone 3/out on 19 drives this year- they need to keep ball away from QB Brees, whose nine TD passes in two games are tied for most ever by NFL QB after two weeks. Bills are 7-4 as home dog since '06, 11-4 vs spread in last 15 non-divisional home games. Saints are 6-2 as road favorite since '05, they've got 11 TDs on 24 drives, converted 15 of 26 on third down (57.7%).

Dolphins (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1)-- Long trip on short work week for Miami club that had bitter home loss to Colts late Monday night. Dolphins won last seven games vs San Diego, winning last three here by 10-10-2 points. Fish are 9-5-2 as road dog since '07, 17-7-1 in last 25 games as non-divisional road dog. Bolts scored 10 or less points in five of last six series games- they're 16-10 as home favorite since '06, 13-9 as non-divisional HF since '03. Chargers didn't have TD (three FGs) in five red zone trips vs Ravens last week; they dropped back to pass 47 times, only ran it 21. Miami gave up 12.3 ypp Monday nite.

Steelers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)-- Pitt is 15-4 in last 19 series games, taking last five (last four by 11+ points); Steelers won last eight games here, none by less than six points- they covered 10 of last 14 as divisional road favorite, but are just 6-10 as road favorite overall since '06. Bengals have nine sacks so far, are 10-5 vs spread in last 15 games as underdog- they're 6-9 as home dog since '04. Pitt played pair of low scoring games so far (13-10/14-17) but didn't have any takeaways in rainy Chicago last week, first game without Polamalu at safety. Bengals allowed just 75-89 rushing yards in first two games, a good sign.

Broncos (2-0) @ Raiders (1-1)-- Oakland won two of last three in series, after losing previous five games; Denver won five of last six visits to Oakland, with four of five wins by 14+ points, but Shanahan had vendetta against his former boss Al Davis. These Broncos are 2-0; Nike Nolan's 3-4 defense allowed one TD on 22 drives (nine 3/outs); they've outrushed opponents 261-140. Russell has completed just 37.5% of passes so far- Raiders went 3/out on 11/21 drives they need more consistency under center. Oakland is 9-19-1 as home favorite this decade. Broncos covered two of their last nine AFC West road games.

Colts (2-0) @ Cardinals (1-1)-- Indy won first two games by 2-4 points, with Manning averaging 12.3 ypa Monday in Miami. Colt defense is giving up 4.7 ypc- their foes converted 21 of 36 on 3rd down. This is long road trip on short work week, but Colts are 7-1-1 vs spread this decade when dog of three or less points, 9-4-1 in last 14 games as road dog overall. Warner was 24-26 passing in easy win at Jacksonville last week; Cardinals are 11-9 as home fave since '05, 10-4 in last 14 games as non-divisional HF. Redbord defense faced Hill/Garrard in first two games, now takes major step up in QB competition vs Manning.

Monday, September 28

Panthers (0-2) @ Cowboys (1-1)-- Dallas won seven of last eight series games, with only loss in '03 playoffs; Cowboys scored 65 points in first two games (eight TDs/22 drives), but have zero sacks or INTs (opp 80 passes). Panthers allowed 33.8 ppg in last four regular season games; they've given up 336 yards on ground in two '09 games (4.9 ypc), seven TDs on 21 drives, with only three 3/outs, while completing just 52% of their passes. Carolina covered two of last 10 as a road dog. Dallas is 3-5 vs spread in last eight games as a home favorite, but is 13-7-1 against spread as non-divisional home favorite since 2004.

**pm530** · 09-24-2009, 02:07 AM

NFL
Dunkel Index

San Francisco at Minnesota
The 49ers look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a SU win. San Francisco is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Vikings favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+7). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27

Game 401-402: Tennessee at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 134.335; NY Jets 138.585
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 4; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-1 1/2); Over

Game 403-404: Jacksonville at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 127.016; Houston 132.555
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2); Under

Game 405-406: Kansas City at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.960; Philadelphia 133.882
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 7; 40
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Cleveland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.898; Baltimore 139.891
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 12; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 14; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+14); Under

Game 409-410: NY Giants at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.927; Tampa Bay 128.311
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 9 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-6 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: Washington at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 130.956; Detroit 122.412
Dunkel Line: Washington by 8 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Washington by 6; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-6); Over

Game 413-414: Green Bay at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 135.140; St. Louis 119.875
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 15 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-6 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: San Francisco at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 132.389; Minnesota 136.854
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+7); Over

Game 417-418: Atlanta at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 131.808; New England 139.277
Dunkel Line: New England by 7 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 46
Dunkel Pick: New England (-4); Over

Game 419-420: Chicago at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.334; Seattle 127.784
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Chicago by 1; 37
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1); Under

Game 421-422: New Orleans at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 143.556; Buffalo 131.117
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 12 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6; 52
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6); Over

Game 423-424: Miami at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.606; San Diego 138.222
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-5 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.129; Cincinnati 131.147
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3 1/2); Over

Game 437-428: Denver at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.656; Oakland 126.001
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Denver by 1; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-1); Under

Game 429-430: Indianapolis at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.188; Arizona 137.143
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 50 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+2 1/2); Over

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28

Game 431-432: Carolina at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.150; Dallas 139.050
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 4; 45
Vegas Line: Dallas by 9 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9 1/2); Under

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**pm530** · 09-25-2009, 03:19 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 3 betting notes
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Cleveland at Baltimore (-13)

Why Browns cover: They’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Ravens. Joe Flacco has trouble with Cleveland. He averages only 188.5 yards passing with two TDs and two interceptions in two games.

Why Ravens cover: They’ve won four of the last six meetings. Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups. Brady Quinn (66.9 passer rating) is struggling as the Browns' starting QB. Cleveland has collapsed in the second half of both games this season. Starting running back Jamal Lewis is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Total (38.5): Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings at Baltimore.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (+6.5)

Why Giants cover: Have won six of last nine meetings. Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Bucs will be without starting safety Jermaine Phillips who has a broken thumb.

Why Buccaneers cover: New York could be without both defensive linemen Chris Canty and Justing Tuck. With 574 yards passing and four touchdowns, Byron Leftwich has been surprisingly effective for Tampa Bay.

Total (44): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 4-0 in the last four dates in Tampa Bay.

Green Bay at St. Louis (+6.5)

Why Packers cover: Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. St. Louis ranks near the bottom of the league in many offensive categories and has only scored seven points in two games this season.

Why Rams cover: Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Green Bay's already shaky offensive line will be without Chad Clifton who has an ankle injury. Steven Jackson has rushed for 281 yards in three games versus the Packers.

Total (41): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Kansas City at Philadelphia (-9.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Philly is banged up at all three skill positions with QB Donovan McNabb, WR DeSean Jackson and RB Brian Westbrook all battling injuries. Kevin Kolb threw three picks last week and will get the nod again with McNabb still on the shelf.

Why Eagles cover: They’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and have won last two meetings. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Matt Cassel will start at QB for K.C. even though Brodie Croyle was more effective in his Week 1 start.

Total (42): Over is 4-0-1 in Eagles' last five home games.

Atlanta at New England (-4)

Why Falcons cover: Patriots are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games. Tony Gonzalez has been close to unstoppable this season for a highly effective Atlanta offense.

Why Patriots cover: They’ve won last two meetings. Could establish a good running game now that Atlanta will be without DT Peria Jerry who is out for the season. Tom Brady has thrown for 600 yards and six scores in two games against the Falcons.

Total (45): Over is 4-0 in Patriots' last four home games.

San Francisco at Minnesota (-7)

Why 49ers cover: Are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games. They held Adrian Peterson to only three rushing yards in their last meeting. Peterson is also dealing with a back in jury.

Why Vikings cover: Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Minny has the defense to shut down SF tailback Frank Gore. Brett Favre has become more of a game manager, exactly what the Vikings need.

Total (40): Under is 6-1 in 49ers' last seven games and 4-1 in their last five games.

Jacksonville at Houston (-3.5)

Why Jaguars cover: RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been solid against Houston with four touchdowns and a 5.4 yards per carry average in their last five meetings. Houston RB Steve Slaton has been unable to live up to last year's performance and has only 51 yards rushing and no scores.

Why Texans cover: Have won four of last six meetings. Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings and 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Houston. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson could destroy a terrible Jags' pass defense.

Total (46.5): Under is 4-0 in Jaguars' last four road games.

Washington at Detroit (+6.5)

Why Redskins cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and have won the last three meetings. Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Matthew Stafford has been picked off five times in two games and is the league's lowest-rated passer.

Why Lions cover: Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Redskins have only managed 13 points so far this season and now will be without former Pro Bowl guard Randy Thomas for the season.

Total (38.5): Under is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings.

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets (-1)

Why Titans cover: They have an explosive running offense that can dictate the pace of the game. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Why Jets cover: Have won four of last five meetings. Mark Sanchez has looked great in his first two games and gets to face a suspect Tennessee pass defense. Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (37): Under is 5-1 in Titans' last six road games.

New Orleans at Buffalo (+6)

Why Saints cover: Are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. New Orleans has won three of last five meetings. Drew Brees has been incredible with nine touchdowns in two games and the Bills have one of the NFL's worst pass defenses.

Why Bills cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games. With both Pierre Thomas and leading rusher Mike Bell hurt, unproven Lynell Hamilton (no career carries) could get the bulk of the work in the backfield. Fred Jackson has played very well in place of the suspended Marshawn Lynch and is both the Bills' leading rusher and receiver.

Total (52): Over is 20-7-1 in Saints' last 28 games and 4-1 in Bills' last five games.

Chicago at Seattle (+1)

Why Bears cover: Seattle could be without QB Matt Hasselbeck who has a rib injury. Matt Forte could have a big day against a defense that allowed Frank Gore to run for 207 yards last week.

Why Seahawks cover: They’re 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Running game has been very effective with Julius Jones (4.7 yards per carry) leading the way. Seattle has won three of the last five meetings. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

Total (37): Under is 8-2 in Bears' last 10 road games and 5-1 in Seahawks' last six home games.

Denver at Oakland (+1)

Why Broncos cover: Have won six of last eight meetings. Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. JaMarcus Russell has completed on 35 percent of his passes and sports a paltry 46.6 passer rating. Raiders will be without starting guard Robert Gallery.

Why Raiders cover: Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Total (36): Under is 5-2 in Raiders' last seven home games.

Miami at San Diego (-6)

Why Dolphins cover: The Fish are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in San Diego. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Miami has won last seven meetings. Wildcat offense continues to baffle opposing defenses.

Why Chargers cover: SD is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games. Have dynamic passing offense with downfield threat Vincent Jackson and Darren Sproles as the check down option.

Total (44): Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in San Diego.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+4)

Why Steelers cover: They’re 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Cincinnati. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Road team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Ben Roethlisberger has totaled 10 touchdowns in his last five games against Cincy.

Why Bengals cover: Cincy is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. DE Antwan Odom leads the league in sacks and could be trouble for Roethlisberger, who often holds onto the ball too long. With only 66 yards so far, Pitt tailback Willie Parker has been almost non-existent.

Total (37): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Cincinnati.

Indianapolis at Arizona (-1)

Why Colts cover: They’re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games and have won last three meetings. NFL leading pass defense could limit Cards' aerial attack and force them to rely on their mediocre ground game.

Why Cardinals cover: They’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Colts could be without defensive captain Gary Brackett who injured his leg Monday night. Indy has struggled to run the ball, averaging on 66 yards per game so far.

Total (47.5): Over is 36-15 in Cardinals' last 51 games.

Carolina at Dallas (-9)

Why Panthers cover: Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Jake Delhomme bounced back after a disastrous opening game and will face a Dallas defense allowing over 300 yards passing per game. Dallas RB Marion Barber is dealing with a quad injury. Delhomme is 3-1 in Monday night starts.

Why Cowboys cover: They’ve won the last seven meetings and are averaging 32 points per game. They’re going against a Carolina team that has given up 66 points in two games. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

Total (46.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

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**pm530** · 09-27-2009, 02:17 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know: Indianapolis at Arizona
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 48.5)

Line movement

Believe it or not, the Colts actually opened as 2.5-point favorites at the Hilton in Las Vegas.

Most books opened with the Cardinals laying a single point, but the line has since been bet up to -2.5.

The total hasn’t moved much, just a half-point off of the opener of 48.

At the time of writing, it appears bettors are split down the middle in terms of the side while the money continues to pour in on the over.

Short week

The Colts are at a slight disadvantage with this being a short week off of their win over the Dolphins Monday.

Of course, that wasn’t an issue last year as they defeated the Patriots following a Monday night appearance and beat the Jaguars on a Thursday night game.

The Colts defense was on the field for 45 minutes Monday, so we’ll see if that becomes an issue Sunday night.

Cards on track

Arizona certainly didn’t look like the defending NFC Champion in its season-opening loss to San Francisco, but the Cardinals rebounded nicely in Jacksonville last Sunday.

Kurt Warner helped the Cards score 31 points as he completed 24-of-26 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns.

Nine different Cardinals caught passes in the win, with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston combining for 17 receptions.

After calling them out a week earlier, Ken Whisenhunt pointed to his team’s offensive line as the biggest reason for their success last Sunday.

"I was happy with our offensive line," Whisenhunt told reporters, "but I think I'm going to stay mad at them. It seemed like we played a little bit better when I was angry at them last week, so I think we'll try to keep that same mentality going."

The line will once again be key against the Colts outstanding pass rush lead by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Manning mastery

Peyton Manning orchestrated another fourth quarter comeback Monday night in Miami, and he’s obviously the Cardinals’ biggest concern heading into Sunday’s matchup.

Kurt Warner gave the Colts superstar high praise earlier this week.

“Three-fourths of the battles in this business is knowing where you need to go with the football and doing it quickly enough that you can react to what a defense does,” Warner told the media. “Peyton does it as well as anybody.”

The Cardinals defense should be well-adjusted to the no-huddle after watching Warner and company run a similar offense in practice. Defensive coordinator Bill Davis feels it gives his team a distinct advantage.

“If there was a (training) camp to be in this year to prepare for Peyton, it would have been ours,” Davis said.

Trends and things

The Colts have thrived in the role of small underdogs in recent seasons, going an incredible 12-2-1 ATS the last 15 times they’ve been dogged by a field goal or less.

They’ve also been traditionally strong starters, posting a 15-7-1 ATS record in their last 23 September contests.

The Cardinals have been at their best when laying points, a solid 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.

Like Indianapolis, Arizona has also enjoyed recent success in September, covering in seven of their last 10 games.

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**pm530** · 09-27-2009, 02:26 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winds of change: NFL Week 3 weather report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-4.5, 46.5)

A fired-up Tom Brady might not have much of an impact for the Patriots. There is a 100 percent chance of showers, along with a blustery, 13-mph wind expected. The weather should put a damper on deep passing and play into Atlanta’s strength of power running Michael Turner.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+6, 51.5)

The Saints may be on track for the playoffs – and that means winning consistently outdoors. New Orleans won for just the second time in its past eight outdoor games last week in Philadelphia and now must find a way for its high-powered passing game to click against a 14-mph wind in New York. The total is very high and the stronger the wind, the harder it will be to crack the over.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+1, 37)

Does JaMarcus Russell really need another challenge to become a legit NFL quarterback? This weekend, he will have to battle not only the revamped Denver 3-4 defense, but also an 11-mph win. The Raiders, which are still trying to find consistency on defense, are a meager 4-10 in their past 14 games with a wind factor greater than 10 mph.

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**Udog** · 09-27-2009, 10:57 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals [4:15 PM ET]

Steelers (-3.5, O/U 37): The Steelers have owned the Bengals in Cincinnati beating them the past eight times at Paul Brown Stadium with the average victory margin being 14 points. The Steelers have won and covered nine of their last 11 overall contests versus Cincinnati, including the past five. Pittsburgh has held Cincinnati to 10 points in each of the past three meetings. The defending world champions have won 12 of their last 13 AFC North Division games, covering nine of the 13. The Steelers, though, are averaging just 70.5 yards rushing per game and Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked six times already while being picked off three times. Roethlisberger is 11-0 playing in his native state of Ohio. Star safety Troy Polamalu is out with a knee injury. Tyrone Carter, Polamalu’s replacement, has a thigh injury and is questionable. Pittsburgh has failed to cover in its last five September games.

The Over has cashed in 13 of Pittsburgh’s past 18 games versus AFC teams.
The Steelers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games at Cincinnati.

Key Injuries Safety Troy Polamalu (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Bengals: The Bengals appear much improved with a healthy Carson Palmer and a talented defense featuring seven starters who were drafted in the first two rounds. The Bengals are leading the NFL in sacks. Antwan Odom had five sacks against the Packers last Sunday. The Bengals also are running the ball well behind former Bears castoff Cedric Benson ranking 12th averaging 118.5 yards on the ground. The Bengals upset Green Bay as a nine-point road underdog last week and would be 2-0 if it weren’t for a miracle tipped pass that resulted in a long Denver touchdown in the final seconds opening week. The problem for the Bengals is getting over the mental hurdle of beating Pittsburgh, a team they lost to twice last season by a combined 45 points. The Bengals must prove they can put together back-to-back good games. They are 4-10 against the spread following a cover.

Cincinnati has covered only 1 of its last six AFC North games.
The Bengals are 7-1 Under following an against the spread win.

Key Injuries - Wide receiver Chris Henry (quadriceps) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17 (Side of the Day)

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

Colts: Oddsmakers opened Indianapolis the favorite, but there has been huge line movement to the Cardinals. The Cardinals have won 11 of their last 14 home games under Ken Whisenhunt. Arizona has a bye the following week, while Indianapolis has to travel to the West Coast after edging Miami on Monday night in South Florida. The Colts, though, are 12-2-1 against the spread as an underdog of one-to-three points. Peyton Manning has several new wide receivers after losing Anthony Gonzalez to a knee injury. He found one of them, Pierre Garcon, for the winning touchdown on Monday. The undefeated Colts have won their two games by a combined six points. They are having trouble running the ball for the second year in a row ranking 29th in rushing. They do rank third in passing yards behind Manning. The Cardinals figure to give the Colts’ secondary their stiffest challenge.

The Under has cashed 7 of the past nine times the Colts have been an underdog.
Indianapolis is 15-7-1 ATS in September.

Key Injuries - Safety Bob Sanders (knee) is out.
Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (knee) is out.
Linebacker Gary Brackett (knee) is doubtful.
Linebacker Clint Session (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23

Cardinals (-3, O/U 48): The total is high as this could turn out to be a shootout between Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning. Neither team runs the ball well. After a bad first week in a loss to San Francisco, the 38-year-old Warner rebounded strong last Sunday leading Arizona to a 31-17 road win against Jacksonville. Warner set an NFL record for accuracy by completing 24-of-26 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals have lost seven of their last 11 games outside their NFC West Division. However, Arizona has covered four consecutive home contests versus AFC foes by margins of 22 ½, 14 1/2, 5 and 13 points. The Cardinals also have covered during nine of the past 12 times they’ve been a favorite. They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 September contests. They are 6-1 against the number in their last seven overall games.

The Over has cashed in 19 of Arizona’s last 26 home games.
The Over has cashed in 8 of Arizona’s last 10 games when the Cardinals were favored.

Key Injuries - Wide receiver Steve Breaston (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 26 (OVER - Total of the Day)

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**pm530** · 09-28-2009, 02:34 AM

NFL

Monday, September 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know: Panthers at Cowboys
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-9, 47.5)

Banged up

Both teams are going to be missing valuable pieces. Carolina is expected to be without linebacker Na’il Diggs (ribs), fullback Brad Hoover (back), strong safety Chris Harris (knee) and defensive end Everette Brown (ankle).

The Panthers defense has allowed almost 320 yards of offense in their two games. Carolina’s allowing 168 yards per game on the ground and has only two sacks.

Barber shop may be closed

Dallas’ injury list isn’t as long but it features running back Marion Barber, who is dealing with a thigh injury. He was listed as a limited participant in practice but coaches say they won’t make the final decision on him until kickoff. Coach Wade Phillips says if he does play, Phillips won’t limit his carries.

Felix Jones and Tashard Choice would replace Marion if he can’t go. Both have proven themselves capable of producing big plays.

The Cowboys are first in the league in rushing and are averaging seven yards per carry. Their offensive line has allowed just one sack against the Giants and Buccaneers. Julius Peppers will have his work cut out for him if he wants to get to Tony Romo.

Quarterback quandary

Both Tony Romo and Jake Delhomme have been struggling mightily this season. Romo’s spotlight is a lot bigger especially since his failures were magnified on Sunday night football last week. He had three interceptions and was only 13 of 29 for 127 yards in a loss to the Giants.

The Panthers have allowed the third least amount of yards through the air this season and have two interceptions.

Jake Delhomme bounced back a little bit last week throwing for 308 yards and only one interception. That’s an improvement over his Week 1 performance where he threw four interceptions and had a quarterback rating of 14.7.

Delhomme has won three of his last four Monday night starts and will be facing a Cowboys secondary that has been gashed for 303 yards per game through the air. Dallas hasn’t registered a sack, interception or fumble recovery yet this season.

Trends

Dallas and Carolina have met 10 times since 1992 with the Cowboys winning seven of the meetings but covering only four. Six of the 10 games have gone over the total. Carolina has actually covered two of its last four games in Dallas.

Carolina has won its only Monday night game in the past three years and is 4-1 coming off a loss to a division rival. So far this season the Panthers have failed to cover the spread in both of their games. The over is also 2-0 in Carolina’s two games this season.

Dallas is 7-3 against the spread in September but has failed to cover its last two Monday night games. Both of those MNF contests went over the total as have both of Dallas games this season.

Line Movement

The game opened with a total of 45 points which escalated as high as 48 but has settled at 47.5 in most books.

Dallas was installed a 10-point favorite with the spread slowly falling to 8.5 at most places.

Weather

It will be a hot evening in Dallas on Monday. The temperature will be around 80 degrees with a light wind at 10 mph heading north. Of course Dallas could shut the roof and turn on the air conditioning.

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**pm530** · 09-28-2009, 02:50 AM

NFL
Dunkel Index

Updated

Carolina at Dallas
The Panthers look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games following a SU loss. Carolina is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Dallas favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9 1/2).

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28

Game 431-432: Carolina at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.150; Dallas 139.050
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 4; 45
Vegas Line: Dallas by 9 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9 1/2); Under

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**Udog** · 09-28-2009, 11:15 AM

NFL

Monday, September 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys [ESPN | 8:35 PM ET]

Panthers: The 0-2 Panthers haven’t started a season with three straight losses since 1998. So this already becomes a crucial game for Carolina considering only three teams that started 0-3 have made the playoffs since 1990 when the NFL expanded the playoff field to 12. Carolina’s defense has noticeably slipped allowing 28 or more points in seven of their last nine games. The Panthers are giving up 33 points this season and have just two sacks. Quarterback Jake Delhomme has committed 12 turnovers in his last three games. Steve Smith remains a premier deep threat, though, and the Panthers are 28-15-1 against the spread as a road underdog under John Fox. They are 34-20-1 against the spread as a ‘dog under Fox. The Panthers have a good track record of bouncing back from a loss covering eight of the past 10 times following a defeat.

The Over has cashed in 8 of Carolina’s past 10 games.
The Panthers are 4-9-1 ATS in September.

Key Injuries - Linebacker Na’il Diggs (ribs) is out.
Safety Chris Harris (knee) is doubtful.
Defensive end Everette Brown (ankle) is doubtful.
Fullback Brad Hoover (back) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

Cowboys (-9, O/U 48): Dallas has defeated Carolina seven straight times during the regular season with the last victory occurring in 2007. Quarterback Tony Romo is looking to bounce back after having one of his worst games ever last week in a home loss to the Giants. Romo was just 13-for-29 for 127 yards and a touchdown with three interceptions. Romo is going to have to play better because Dallas’ defense has allowed 877 yards, third-worst in the NFL through Week 2. Dallas led the NFL in sacks last season with 59, but is the only defense that has yet to record a sack or force a turnover this year. The Cowboys are 0-6 against the spread at home after playing the Giants and 0-4 against the number during their last four Monday night appearances. Star running back Marion Barber may be held out because of a quad injury.

The Under is 15-6 in the Cowboys’ last 21 home games versus an opponent with a losing road record.
Dallas is 17-8-1 ATS following a defeat.

Key Injuries - Marion Barber (quad) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 29 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Side of the Day is in MLB today.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (9/27 - 9/28)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (9/27 - 9/28)

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