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Ncaa Football 11/12 - 11/15
These are my plays for this week.........
Wednesday, November 12, 2003
1 STAR: Marshall (+12.5) OVER MIAMI-OHIO
Going to go with the Herd here, even with their quarterback injuries. Marshall is 5-0 against the spread against Miami in the last five meetings and they are 8-1 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Take the points, the Herd should be able to keep it close.
Thursday, November 13, 2003
1 STAR: MARYLAND (-6.5) OVER Virginia
This is a revenge game for the Terps who lost last season at Virginia 48-13. All the numbers point to a Terps cover here. Virginia is only 1-15 against the spread in their last 16 ACC conference losses, 1-6 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, 5-14 against the spread in road games after a bye week since 1992, 4-13 against the spread in November road games games since 1992 and 3-11 against the spread in road games versus good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points per game since 1992. Maryland is 13-2 against the spread as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. Lay the wood here!
Saturday, November 15, 2003
5 STAR: TEXAS (-16) OVER Texas Tech
This looks like a lot of points to lay against the potent offense of Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders have a history of being blowout in Austin. Tech has one win in their last four trips to play at Texas, but in the three losses they were blown out mightily by an average of 42 points per game. Texas took a beating at the hands of Oklahoma, but ever since then the Longhorns have been on a roll winning and covering four straight games in impressive fashion. Texas Tech beat up on Baylor for us last week, but the Red Raiders had not been playing very good ball heading into that game. They struggled to put away Colorado at home and lost at Missouri and Oklahoma State. The key to this game will be the Texas defense, we know that Texas will score at will on the Red Raiders, but will the Horns be able to get enough stops on defense to win by more than two touchdowns? I think that they will. Texas is usually very good at stopping one dimensional offensive teams, as they did against the running attack of Nebraska. The Longhorns usually struggle against the physical teams that they play, and they struggled against Arkansas and Oklahoma in their two loses this season, but they should not have a problem against Tech. The Red Raiders are a passing offense that throws over 80% of the time. Texas is 17-4 against the spread versus poor rushing teams that are averaging 120 or less rushing yards per game since 1992 and the Horns have the #6 ranked pass defense in the nation and should be able to force Symons and company into some turnovers. On the other side of the ball, the Horns should have no trouble scoring on one of the worst defenses in the nation. The Longhorns are averaging 45 points per game over their last four games and they should have no problem getting at least that in this game. Texas is 25-5 against the spread when they gain 500 or more total yards since 1992, 7-1 against the spread when they score 28 or more points this season, 28-12 against the spread in November games since 1992 and 8-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992. Hook 'em Horns!!!
3 STAR: NEBRASKA (+1) OVER Kansas State
I have to go with the Huskers here as a very slight home underdog. K-State has not had any success when playing at Lincoln having lost all five games that they have played there since 1992. The Huskers have one of the best home field advantages in the nation, they just don't lose many games there, going 80-3 straight up at home since 1991 and add to that the fact that K-State is only 4-31 straight up on the road against good teams with a winning percentage of 80% or better. I look for the "Black Shirt" defense of Nebraska, that is allowing only 6 points per game at home this season, to do a good job against the Wildcats. Nebraska is 12-4 against the spread in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992, 11-1 against the spread in home games versus very good offensive teams that are scoring 34 or more points per game since 1992 and 21-8 against the spread after a double digit road win since 1992. Take the Huskers here!
3 STAR: FLORIDA STATE (-14.5) OVER North Carolina State
This looks like too many points for FSU to be laying against NC State, considering the fact that FSU is coming off of a bad loss to Clemson last week and NC State has won the last two match ups between these two teams, but I look for the Seminoles to cover this big number. Florida State is 17-1 against the spread in games they win straight up when coming off of a loss against an opponent that is off of a win. Florida State is also 8-0 against the spread in their last eight straight up revenge wins and they are 8-0 against the spread in their last home game of the season the last eight years. NC State has been a disappointment this season losing games to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech after being touted as an ACC contender and they are a dismal 3-6 against the spread this season including 1-5 against the spread against conference opponents. Look for the Noles to win big here!
2 STAR: CALIFORNIA (-6) OVER Washington
The Bears are a 6 point favorite against a team that has beaten them in 17 out of the last 18 meetings. Okay, I'll bite. Washington is coming off of a loss against the pathetic Arizona Wildcats, it can't get any worse than that. I think that the Huskies will really pack it in after that crushing loss and they are only 4-12 against the spread after a road loss against a conference rival since 1992 and only 2-8 against the spread after an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992. I'll lay the six points here as Cal looks to atone for years of frustration against Washington!
2 STAR: Cincinnati (+7) OVER TCU
I am still not sold on TCU. They are much like Ohio State was last year, always finding a way to get a close win. But, this is another game in which their luck could run out and the BCS is praying for that to happen just so they don't have to listen to the TCU backers making noise. Cincinnati is very tough in the role of an underdog posting a record of 10-3 against the spread as an underdog over the last 3 seasons, including a mark of 7-1 against the spread as a road underdog during that time. TCU is only 1-6 against the spread in home games after a win by 3 or less points since 1992 and they are only 1-6 against the spread when favored by more that a field goal this season. The Bearcats beat the Horned Frogs last season 36-29 and they are more than capable of doing it again here!
2 STAR: Baylor (+53) OVER OKLAHOMA
I can see the Sooners getting a shutout here, but still not covering this number. I think they will show some mercy against the Bears and win this game by about 40. Huge underdogs of 48 points or more are 18-8 against the spread including 12-1 when facing a team that is off of a stright up and against the spread win. Take the points here, I see 42-0!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 7-8 (-9.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 21-11-1 (+26.7 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 13-9 (+6.2 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 11-6 (+4.4 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 52-34-1 (+28.30 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $2830.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
Wednesday, November 12, 2003
1 STAR: Marshall (+12.5) OVER MIAMI-OHIO
Going to go with the Herd here, even with their quarterback injuries. Marshall is 5-0 against the spread against Miami in the last five meetings and they are 8-1 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Take the points, the Herd should be able to keep it close.
Thursday, November 13, 2003
1 STAR: MARYLAND (-6.5) OVER Virginia
This is a revenge game for the Terps who lost last season at Virginia 48-13. All the numbers point to a Terps cover here. Virginia is only 1-15 against the spread in their last 16 ACC conference losses, 1-6 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, 5-14 against the spread in road games after a bye week since 1992, 4-13 against the spread in November road games games since 1992 and 3-11 against the spread in road games versus good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points per game since 1992. Maryland is 13-2 against the spread as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. Lay the wood here!
Saturday, November 15, 2003
5 STAR: TEXAS (-16) OVER Texas Tech
This looks like a lot of points to lay against the potent offense of Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders have a history of being blowout in Austin. Tech has one win in their last four trips to play at Texas, but in the three losses they were blown out mightily by an average of 42 points per game. Texas took a beating at the hands of Oklahoma, but ever since then the Longhorns have been on a roll winning and covering four straight games in impressive fashion. Texas Tech beat up on Baylor for us last week, but the Red Raiders had not been playing very good ball heading into that game. They struggled to put away Colorado at home and lost at Missouri and Oklahoma State. The key to this game will be the Texas defense, we know that Texas will score at will on the Red Raiders, but will the Horns be able to get enough stops on defense to win by more than two touchdowns? I think that they will. Texas is usually very good at stopping one dimensional offensive teams, as they did against the running attack of Nebraska. The Longhorns usually struggle against the physical teams that they play, and they struggled against Arkansas and Oklahoma in their two loses this season, but they should not have a problem against Tech. The Red Raiders are a passing offense that throws over 80% of the time. Texas is 17-4 against the spread versus poor rushing teams that are averaging 120 or less rushing yards per game since 1992 and the Horns have the #6 ranked pass defense in the nation and should be able to force Symons and company into some turnovers. On the other side of the ball, the Horns should have no trouble scoring on one of the worst defenses in the nation. The Longhorns are averaging 45 points per game over their last four games and they should have no problem getting at least that in this game. Texas is 25-5 against the spread when they gain 500 or more total yards since 1992, 7-1 against the spread when they score 28 or more points this season, 28-12 against the spread in November games since 1992 and 8-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992. Hook 'em Horns!!!
3 STAR: NEBRASKA (+1) OVER Kansas State
I have to go with the Huskers here as a very slight home underdog. K-State has not had any success when playing at Lincoln having lost all five games that they have played there since 1992. The Huskers have one of the best home field advantages in the nation, they just don't lose many games there, going 80-3 straight up at home since 1991 and add to that the fact that K-State is only 4-31 straight up on the road against good teams with a winning percentage of 80% or better. I look for the "Black Shirt" defense of Nebraska, that is allowing only 6 points per game at home this season, to do a good job against the Wildcats. Nebraska is 12-4 against the spread in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992, 11-1 against the spread in home games versus very good offensive teams that are scoring 34 or more points per game since 1992 and 21-8 against the spread after a double digit road win since 1992. Take the Huskers here!
3 STAR: FLORIDA STATE (-14.5) OVER North Carolina State
This looks like too many points for FSU to be laying against NC State, considering the fact that FSU is coming off of a bad loss to Clemson last week and NC State has won the last two match ups between these two teams, but I look for the Seminoles to cover this big number. Florida State is 17-1 against the spread in games they win straight up when coming off of a loss against an opponent that is off of a win. Florida State is also 8-0 against the spread in their last eight straight up revenge wins and they are 8-0 against the spread in their last home game of the season the last eight years. NC State has been a disappointment this season losing games to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech after being touted as an ACC contender and they are a dismal 3-6 against the spread this season including 1-5 against the spread against conference opponents. Look for the Noles to win big here!
2 STAR: CALIFORNIA (-6) OVER Washington
The Bears are a 6 point favorite against a team that has beaten them in 17 out of the last 18 meetings. Okay, I'll bite. Washington is coming off of a loss against the pathetic Arizona Wildcats, it can't get any worse than that. I think that the Huskies will really pack it in after that crushing loss and they are only 4-12 against the spread after a road loss against a conference rival since 1992 and only 2-8 against the spread after an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992. I'll lay the six points here as Cal looks to atone for years of frustration against Washington!
2 STAR: Cincinnati (+7) OVER TCU
I am still not sold on TCU. They are much like Ohio State was last year, always finding a way to get a close win. But, this is another game in which their luck could run out and the BCS is praying for that to happen just so they don't have to listen to the TCU backers making noise. Cincinnati is very tough in the role of an underdog posting a record of 10-3 against the spread as an underdog over the last 3 seasons, including a mark of 7-1 against the spread as a road underdog during that time. TCU is only 1-6 against the spread in home games after a win by 3 or less points since 1992 and they are only 1-6 against the spread when favored by more that a field goal this season. The Bearcats beat the Horned Frogs last season 36-29 and they are more than capable of doing it again here!
2 STAR: Baylor (+53) OVER OKLAHOMA
I can see the Sooners getting a shutout here, but still not covering this number. I think they will show some mercy against the Bears and win this game by about 40. Huge underdogs of 48 points or more are 18-8 against the spread including 12-1 when facing a team that is off of a stright up and against the spread win. Take the points here, I see 42-0!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 7-8 (-9.0 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 21-11-1 (+26.7 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 13-9 (+6.2 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 11-6 (+4.4 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 52-34-1 (+28.30 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $2830.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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