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NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (9/17 - 9/19)

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  • #16
    last weeks looks and opinions/stats

    SEC overview
    1. Florida - The Gators rolled over a hapless Troy team 56-6 last week, piling
    up 663 total yards of offense. This week they face Tennessee as four touchdown
    favorites and despite Urban Meyer downplaying Lane Kiffin’s loose
    lips in the offseason, you can rest assure winning by a sizeable margin is
    on the minds of the Gators. Should be an interesting day in the Swamp.

    2. Alabama - The Tide started slowly against Florida International, playing
    a very sloppy first half in which they led only 20-14 at the break. They
    turned it on in the second frame led by freshman running back Trent
    Richardson’s 118 yards and two touchdowns. Bama had over 500 yards
    of offense for the second straight game and held FIU to 214 total yards,
    including just one yard from the Panthers’ run game. The only surprising
    thing was FIU scoring a 96-yard touchdown on a kickoff return. That play
    allowed FIU to score the ATS victory.

    3. Ole Miss - The Rebels were off last week and many were recuperating
    from the swine flu. Dexter McClusker was hospitalized but did return to
    practice.

    4. LSU - The Tigers beat Vanderbilt 23-9 at home as the defense bounced
    back from allowing nearly 500 yards in the opener to Washington. LSU
    allowed just 210 total yards to the ‘Dores, but had only 340 yards of its
    own.

    5. Auburn - The Tigers piled up 49 points against Mississippi State and
    have unquestionably looked much better offensively this year under Gus
    Mahlzan than they did under Tony Franklin. The running game has been
    dominant, with 693 yards of rushing in the first two games.

    6. Arkansas. The Hogs were off last week and have their first real test of
    the year this week with Georgia coming to town. The atmosphere should
    be unreal as the fans have some huge expectations for the second year of
    the Bobby Petrino era.

    7. Georgia - The Bulldogs bounced back from their opening loss to Oklahoma
    State with a win over South Carolina, 41-37. However, it wasn’t exactly
    the offensive explosion that it looked like with UGA posting only
    308 total yards. The Bulldogs returned a kickoff for a touchdown, had 40-
    and 52-yard TD drives, a one-yard FG drive and also had a two-play drive
    that ended with a 61-yard TD run. They definitely must be given credit for
    scoring 41 points on a supposedly solid South Carolina defense, but they
    didn’t exactly march up and down the field.

    8. South Carolina - The Gamecocks did what Steve Spurrier said they
    would do and threw the pigskin around a little bit last week. They had 427
    yards and 26 first downs, also converting 3-of-4 fourth downs, but unfortunately
    couldn’t get the job done in Athens. The Cocks had a fourth-and-
    4 inside the Georgia 10-yard line in the final minute, but couldn’t score the
    touchdown to get their second win.

    9. Kentucky - The Wildcats were also off last week after crushing Miami-
    Ohio, 45-0 in their opener. This week the Cats are lined as high as -13 at
    home against arch rival Louisville. Hard to believe that they were +23 in
    this contest three years ago.

    10. Vanderbilt- Vandy gave a solid effort on the road in Baton Rouge before
    falling to the Tigers, 23-9. The Commodores are closing in on being
    a weekly force in the SEC, but still must develop the passing game to get
    to that next level.

    11. Tennessee – What happened to the days of Peyton Manning or even
    Tee Martin for that matter? Tennessee had terrible quarterback play last
    year and Jonathan Crompton was the culprit on most occasions. He is still
    the starter and still making terrible decisions, as he did against UCLA last
    week in a 19-15 loss. The Vols’ offense had just 208 total yards and four
    turnovers, all by Crompton. They also had only three drives of more than
    six plays in the entire game. That doesn’t bode well for this week’s game
    in the Swamp.

    12. Mississippi State - The Bulldogs are better on offense than they are
    on defense. Unfortunately, the better isn’t very good. They were crushed
    at Auburn, 49-24, and outgained 589-297. It is going to be a long year for
    the Bulldogs.

    ACC and others
    The ACC saved a little face this week after a terrible opening week, but
    it was close.

    Florida State squeaked by Jacksonville State 19-9 at home
    and

    Maryland nudged James Madison, 38-35, in overtime. The Terps
    were outgained 417-359 and Florida State had just one offensive touchdown.

    North Carolina scored all 12 of its points in the fourth quarter of an improbable
    win at UConn. The Tar Heels’ defense allowed just 196 yards and
    were bailed out with a game-winning safety with less than two minutes
    remaining in the game.

    Big games this week in the ACC include Boston College at Clemson, Georgia
    Tech at Miami-FL and Florida State at BYU. Given the struggles of the
    conference, I was surprised to see the Seminoles getting just a touchdown
    in Provo. If Jacory Harris and the Miami offense can throw for nearly
    400 yards against Florida State, Max Hall and the BYU offense should be
    primed for a huge outing.

    Conference-USA
    scored a huge upset this week as Houston went to Stillwater
    and beat the No. 5 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys, 45-35. The
    Cougars were able to run up 514 yards of offense against a defense that
    had previously shut Georgia down. The Cowboys opened the second half
    with 21 straight points but it wasn’t enough as Houston’s spread offense
    had little trouble doing what it wanted to do on offense.

    East Carolina also had a chance for a big road win, but were completely
    overmatched by West Virginia’s underrated defense. The 35-20 final score
    was not indicative of how much of a blowout this one was. West Virginia
    hurt itself with four turnovers that helped keep the game close, but they
    were able to march up and down the field at will. They had a 509-237
    yardage advantage over the Pirates to avenge last year’s loss.

    Louisiana-Lafayette and MTSU were able to give the Sun Belt a couple
    of marquee non-conference wins last week, but the rest of the conference
    was crushed by BCS teams. ULL’s win came over Kansas State after
    they played the Wildcats tough on the road last year. MTSU was able to
    dominate Memphis, 31-14, and now travel to Maryland, which they beat
    at home last year.


    Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

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    • #17
      NCAAF


      Saturday, September 19

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      Game of the day: Texas Tech at Texas
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      Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns (-18, 66)

      Last year, two things prevented the Texas Longhorns from playing in the national title game: the lack of a playoff and Michael Crabtree's game-winning touchdown against them in the Texas Tech game. The touchdown came with one second left on the clock and served as the only loss for the Longhorns in 2008.

      This time around the No. 2 ranked Longhorns (2-0) hope for revenge and play host to the unranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0) in Austin on ABC's feature game (Sat, 8 p.m. ET). The game comes a bit early this year, with last year's tilt being held in November.

      Colt's curtain call

      This will be the fourth and final time that QB Colt McCoy starts against Texas Tech and he has had nothing but success. In the previous three meetings, he has thrown for a combined 818 yards and 10 TDs.

      As a Freshman, Texas was down 21-0 in the first quarter and McCoy responded in the second quarter with three of his own leading to a 35-31 win. The next year, Texas won 59-43 with McCoy responsible for four TDs in the air and two TDs on the ground. Last year wasn't so bad either, McCoy had to deal with the rowdy crowd in Lubbock and nearly won the game after being down 22-6 at the half.

      McCoy now has the benefit of playing in Austin and also has extra motivation from last year's heartbreaker. When Crabtree walked into the endzone last year the camera immediately panned to a shocked McCoy.

      “I remember me standing on the sidelines saying, ‘That is probably the greatest play I’ve ever seen in my life, and I can’t do anything about it.’,” he told the media.

      It’s no secret that one of the defensive keys to the game is keeping McCoy in check. With all the highlight plays from last year's contest, what is often forgotten was Texas Tech's defensive success.

      Defensive tackle Colby Whitlock was a pest from the start, scoring the game’s first points by tackling Chris Ogbonnaya in the endzone for a safety. For the rest of the game, he dominated the Longhorns’ offensive line leaving McCoy little time to make big plays. McCoy and the offensive line also had problems reading what Tech calls the Joker Position, which involves an LB roaming around the line of scrimmage.

      Texas Tech returns most of its key defensive players from last year, but is thin on the line with several injuries. The Longhorns’ offensive line goes two deep and will look to isolate Whitlock. Offensive coordinator Greg Davis is also aware of all the problems on reads from last year.

      Bront Bird will be playing the Joker position and he had problems in pass coverage against North Dakota and Rice. Davis will look to exploit this and he also feels that he has a bit of an upgrade at running back with Vondrell McGee and Tre' Newton. McCoy was the team's leading rusher last year.

      Dealing with the spread

      In last week's feature game, an unproven Quarterback in USC's Matt Barkley had his first true test on the road against Ohio State. This time, bettors have the same in QB Taylor Potts running the Texas Tech spread with his first big start in Austin.

      But Potts may actually be an upgrade from Graham Harrell. He has a stronger arm and is perhaps the most talented QB that Texas Tech has ever had. As a four-star recruit he was rated the 14th best QB out of high school.

      In last week's 55-10 win over Rice, Potts produced typical Texas Tech numbers going 36-57 for 456 yards and seven TDs.

      But the actual key to last year's victory was the rushing game, which kept the Longhorns secondary honest. From 2004 to 2007, Texas Tech passed for an average of 80 percent on its offensive plays and lost in all four games. Last year passing only accounted for 65 percent of the plays with Tech rushing for 105 yards.

      Texas has the depth and talent in its secondary to handle an aerial assault and if Tech is to have any success it will have to improve upon its run pass ratio. Last week, Texas Tech only rushed 14 times for 52 yards.

      Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp also seemed to adjust to Tech's gameplan last year in the second half. The result might have been different had safety Blake Gideon not dropped a sure interception towards the end of last year's game. Gideon returns this year as a sophomore.

      The key for Texas this year will be to put pressure on the unproven Potts. Texas Tech's offensive line spreads out a bit further than most teams and last year Muschamp made the mistake of trying to run through the gaps, which gave the Red Raiders too much time in the pocket. This year, Muschamp may change his gameplan and get talented Sergio Kindle and Lamarr Houston to just bull rush straight at the linemen

      Dealing with the other spread

      The line for the game currently sits at -17.5 at most books in favor of the Longhorns and could possibly move higher as kickoff approaches. This is a far cry from last year when Texas was ranked No. 1 and Texas Tech No. 6 and the spread was -3.5.

      Texas was 6-1 ATS when the spread was two touchdowns or more last year. It’s been a long time since Texas Tech has been a double-digit underdog. The last time was when the Red Raiders were 10-point underdogs against Texas in 2006. Tech's early 21-0 start no doubt helped them cover the spread in a 35-31 loss.

      Texas Tech was also a 17-point underdog against Texas in 2005 and it lost straight up and ATS 52-17.

      The Longhorns are 0-2 ATS this year, however, both games have been coin tosses with Texas only failing to cover by an average of 1.5 points.

      If Texas Tech can’t establish its running game and Colt McCoy puts in a Heisman performance, Texas can easily cover the 17.5 spread. But even in a blowout, Tech's offensive pace could increase the chance of a backdoor cover late in the game. The first half spread is -10.

      Bettors wishing to bet Texas to win straight up will have to pay $1,000 to win $100. Moneyline for Texas Tech hovers in the +650 range.

      The total currently sits at 66 in most places with last year’s game going over the total of 71. But once again, that line was pretty sharp with the total score being 72. The total for the series has not gone under since 2005.

      Texas Tech Quick Bits

      - Tech got into penalty trouble last week with 11 causing a loss of 90 yards.
      - Starter DE Ra'Jon Henley will not be traveling to Austin

      Texas Quick Bits

      - Redshirt Freshman RB Tre' Newton is listed as co-starter alongside Vondrell McGee
      - DT Lamarr Houston was named Big 12 Player of the Week Monday
      - Starting RG Michael Huey who missed the game vs. Wyoming, is expected to start
      - LB Jared Norton and G Mason Walters are not expected to play
      - ESPN College Gameday will be in Austin

      Weather

      The Weather Network has now started to measure comfort level for fans in the form a Spectator Index for every college football game. The game in Austin was given a Spectator Index of 7 (out of 10). A low of 69 is expected at night with a 20 percent chance of precipitation and NE winds at 5 mph.

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      • #18
        NCAAF
        Dunkel - Sat. Update



        Utah at Oregon
        The Utes look to build on their 13-3-1 ATS record in their last 17 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Utah is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has Oregon favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Utah (+5).

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        • #19
          NCAAF


          Saturday, September 19


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          Tips and Trends
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          Thursday, September 17

          Georgia Tech at Miami [ESPN | 7:45 PM ET]

          Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are higher ranked than Miami, but find themselves an underdog. Early betting has been on the favored Hurricanes pushing the number up from an opening three. The 14th-rated Yellow Jackets are 2-0 after beating Clemson last week, 30-27, on a 36-yard field goal with 57 seconds left. Georgia Tech nearly blew a 24-point lead in that contest. The Yellow Jackets have beaten and covered the spread in each of the past four years against Miami, the longest winning streak in the series. Last year, Georgia Tech rushed for 472 yards in a 41-23 victory. The Yellow Jackets run a triple option attack that tests a Miami defense that has talent but may not have the necessary discipline to contain. Demaryius Thomas gives Georgia Tech a threat at the flanks. He caught three passes last week for 93 yards and scored a touchdown.

          The Yellow Jackets are 27-10-1 to the under when getting points.
          Georgia Tech is 0-5 ATS in Thursday night road games.

          Key Injuries - Linebacker Kyle Jackson (foot) is doubtful.

          PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)

          Miami (-5.5, O/U 54): The 20th-ranked Hurricanes are seeking revenge and have had an extra three days to prepare after opening the season on Sept. 7 with a 38-34 win over then-ranked No. 18 Florida State. The Hurricanes scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory sparked by quarterback Jacory Harris, who riddled the Seminoles for 386 yards and two touchdowns. Miami, though, is just 19-19 the past three seasons. The Hurricanes haven’t been able to stop Georgia Tech’s run-oriented option attack. Running back Graig Cooper had a big game for Miami against Florida State with 177 yards in kickoff returns and scoring two touchdowns. Miami has failed to cover 10 of the past 11 times it has been favored in the 3 ½-to-10-point range. The Hurricanes are only 3-13 against the spread following a bye week and 8-18-1 against the number in ACC action.

          Miami is 13-32-1 ATS in its last 46 home games.
          The Under has cashed 19 of the past 26 times the Hurricanes have been a home favorite.

          Key injuries - Cornerback DeMarcus Van Dyke and tight end Richard Gordon are questionable.

          PROJECTED SCORE: 29



          Friday, September 18

          Boise State at Fresno State [ESPN | 9:00 PM ET]

          Boise State (-7.5, O/U 53.5): Boise State is 54-2 in Western Athletic Conference play since 2002. The Broncos outscored their conference foes by an average of 31.1 points last year in going 8-0 in the WAC. The 10th-ranked Broncos opened the season beating Oregon, 19-8, and buried Miami of Ohio 48-0 last Saturday getting 307 passing yards and four touchdowns from Kellen Moore. Titus Young caught six passes for 114 yards and two touchdowns. The Broncos have held foes to 69 rushing yards on 43 attempts after finishing last season with the third-best scoring defense in the country allowing 12.6 points per game. Boise State has covered seven of the past eight times against Fresno, but the Broncos are just 1-6 against the number in their first road game of the season. Last year, Boise downed Fresno, 61-10, out-gaining the Bulldogs, 494-294. The Broncos have gone under in 10 of their last 13 September games.

          Bowl teams from a year ago that win and cover in their first two games are 10-24 ATS in Game 3.
          The Under is 8-3 the past 11 times the Broncos have been a road favorite.

          Key Injuries - None

          PROJECTED SCORE: 30

          Fresno State: Fresno is looking to pull off a rare conference upset of Boise State. The Bulldogs came close last week to upsetting Wisconsin on the road losing 34-31 in double overtime after leading 21-7 in the second quarter. The Bulldogs gashed the Badgers for 489 yards on the ground, paced by 213 yards from Ryan Mathews. Fresno opened the season with a 51-0 victory over UC Davis. The Bulldogs have dropped nine straight games versus ranked opponents since defeating then No. 18 Virginia in overtime in 2004. Fresno, though, has been a solid underdog under Pat Hill going 35-22-1 against the spread in that role, including 8-4 against the spread as a home ‘dog. The Bulldogs probably will have to do a better job stopping the run to upset the Broncos, who have averaged 276 rushing yards the past three games against Fresno State.

          Fresno State is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 conference games.
          The Bulldogs are 5-13 ATS versus teams with a winning record.

          Key Injuries - None

          PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

          Note: The “Tips and Trends” Side of the Day is in MLB.



          Saturday, September 19

          Florida State at BYU [7:00 PM ET]

          Florida State: Perhaps Florida State isn’t off to just a slow start at 1-1. After getting two scores in the final 35 seconds to pull out a 19-9 victory last week against Jacksonville (Ala.) State, a Football Championship Subdivision school, Florida State just may not be that good. The Seminoles still have outstanding athletes, but they’ve allowed 599 passing yards in losing to Miami and beating Jacksonville State, both of which were home contests. Florida State is 1-6 against the spread as a non-conference road ‘dog of more than three points and 4-10 against the number following two consecutive home games. This is just the second time Bobby Bowden’s Seminoles are playing west of Tallahassee in five years. The Seminoles don’t have a rusher who has gained more than 100 yards yet and quarterback Christian Ponder has thrown just two touchdown passes with one interception.

          The Over is 10-3 the past 13 times Florida State has been on the road against a team with a winning home record.

          The Seminoles are 6-1-1 ATS following a non-cover.

          Key Injuries - Defensive tackle Justin Mincey (knee) is doubtful.

          PROJECTED SCORE: 22

          BYU (-8, O/U 54): The seven-ranked Cougars have won their last 18 games at LaVell Edwards Stadium with only one game decided by less than seven points. The Cougars won by an average of 30.2 points in six home games last year. The Cougars held four of those foes to 12 points or less. BYU has won seven in a row versus non-conference opponents. BYU’s defense has looked strong again this season holding Oklahoma to 265 yards and giving up just 162 yards last Saturday to Tulane in a 54-3 road win. The Cougars piled up 527 yards of offense and didn’t punt in routing the Green Wave. Quarterback Max Hall is making a Heisman Trophy bid completing better than 71 percent of his passes for 638 yards and four touchdowns. A concern is if the Cougars can protect Hall, who was sacked four times by Oklahoma. BYU has four new offensive line starters.

          BYU is 2-5 ATS as a favorite.
          The Over is 28-13-1 the past 42 times BYU had a cover the previous week.

          Key Injuries - Safety Scott Johnson (concussion) is questionable.

          PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (UNDER - Total of the Day)



          Texas Tech at Texas [ABC | 8:00 PM ET]

          Texas Tech: This is supposed to be a rebuilding year for Texas Tech after losing star wide receiver Michael Crabtree and quarterback Graham Harrell. However, the Red Raiders are 2-0 with wins over North Dakota (38-13) and Rice (55-10). Taylor Potts has already thrown for 861 yards and nine touchdowns, although he has been picked off three times. Texas Tech has had a good pass rush and its offensive line has yielded just one sack. Until beating Kansas last year, Texas Tech was 0-6 against the spread when facing ranked teams on the road with five of the losses coming by double-digits. The over has cashed in seven of Texas Tech’s last eight board games. The over also is 27-8 the past 35 times the Red Raiders covered a spread during their previous game. The over is 5-1 in Texas Tech’s last six Big 12 Conference matchups.

          Texas Tech is 3-8 ATS following a point spread cover.

          Key Injuries - None

          PROJECTED SCORE: 24

          Texas (-18, O/U 66): This is one of the biggest revenge games of the season after Texas Tech beat the Longhorns, 39-33, in Lubbock last year scoring a touchdown with one second left on a pass to Michael Crabtree. That was Texas’ only loss and ended up costing the Longhorns a chance to play for the Big 12 title and BCS championship game. The Longhorns were ranked No. 1 at the time. This time around they’re at home and rated No. 2. Texas has beaten UL Monroe (59-20) and Wyoming (41-10), but failed to cover in either game despite the lopsided victories. Texas has failed to cover in six of the last eight games it has been favored. The Longhorns’ ground attack has picked up in support of star quarterback Colt McCoy. Vondrell McGee and Tre Newton are each averaging 100 yards on the ground. McCoy has thrown for 654 yards and five touchdowns.

          The Longhorns have gone Over in 8 of their last 11 Big 12 games.
          The Over has cashed in 6 of the past seven games between the two schools.

          Key Injuries - Linebacker Jared Norton (ankle) is doubtful.

          PROJECTED SCORE: 42 (Side of the Day)


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