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  • Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF)

    Since their Bye Week on Week 7, the Baltimore Ravens (6-5) have improved their game and are now in the run for a spot on the wild card race for the playoffs and aside of the Browns, they had faced very difficult teams like the Colts at home or the Bengals on the road. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers after their Bye Week on Week 5 only lost 2 games, at home against the Vikings and on the road, against the Bucs.

    Baltimore offense has sophomore a good QB Joe Flacco leading the team on the offense and he usually bids his time inside the pocket to make the best calls. However, this Baltimore team lately has not scored too many points, which is a trend to take in account for those who might consider the Under 43. On the passing game, the Ravens have WR Derrick Mason has Flacco's main target and he his the best wide receiver of the team. The TE Todd Heap is also very used and after these two, we have also Mark Clayton and Kelley Washington who are seldom used. On the running game, Baltimore main rusher is RB Ray Rice, who also is used sometimes as a wide receiver, and RB Willis McGahee, both are good options for the Ravens ground offense and both have 6 TD scored each.

    On the defense, Baltimore has improved a lot their passing defense, and that is a good thing for tonight. The Ravens' secondary is one of the best in the NFL and they should do again a nice job like they've done lately. Against the rush, Baltimore has done greatly and since the Packers play much better on the passing game than on the ground offense, we should not expect to see Green Bay doing much more on the ground.

    Green Bay defense is also very aggressive, and they have done well against the rushing game and the passing game, but against good offensive teams, they've suffered a lot of points. The Ravens offense is not a very prolific one, but they have been able to do balanced offense and their passing defense has not been the best. The running defense has been quite better, however Baltimore has good options on their running game and the Packers D will have some problems today.

    The Packers passing game has a good QB Aaron Rodgers in great shape and with good options for the Wide Receivers positions, WR Greg Jennings and WR Donald Driver, have been great lately and his Tight-Ends TE Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley aren't that bad either. They will face today a great defense tonight and their running game is solely based on Ryan Grant, who has nice numbers for this season, but he should not do greatly tonight.

    Despite the good performance of the Green Bay passing game on their last games and they have the edge on the number of rest days, yet the Baltimore D is very seasoned and they always give their best and we count on them for a close win by at least on FG.


    Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

    Comment


    • NFL 2009, Week 14, 4 point spreads and 3 totals:

      Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

      New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 36.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

      Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

      Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: Green Bay Packers -3.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek

      San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys: San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

      Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (SNF): Under 44 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

      Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek



      Below is my Week 13 results recap:

      90 - Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: Denver Broncos -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (13-44: WIN)
      91 - Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Oakland Raiders +15 -110 (1.91) The Greek (24-27: WIN)
      92 - Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-17: LOSS)
      93 - New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins: New Orleans Saints -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (30-33 OT: LOSS)
      94 - St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears -9 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-9: LOSS)
      95 - New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: New England Patriots -3 -125 (1.80) Bet Jamaica (22-21: LOSS)
      96 - San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns: San Diego Chargers -13.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (23-30: LOSS)
      97 - Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF): Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker (30-17: LOSS)
      98 - Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF): Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-14: LOSS)

      SIDES: 2-7; (Week 13: -5.18 units);

      NFL 2009 Season record: 46-51-1 (-9.17 units lost/97 units risked);
      SIDES: 44-43 (-3.03 units won/87 units risked);
      TOTALS 2-8 (-6.14 units lost/10 units risked).

      Comment


      • Yesterday finished with a 4-2, 2-1 on pointspreads and 2-1 on totals.


        Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

        The Niners have a good defense and their offense is also quite good, but despite playing at home tonight, they've had consistently lose all their important games against stronger teams during the current season by a 6/7 pts margin.

        I don't expect them to win tonight against an Arizona team that leads their division and that has managed to win their games on the road and the Cards are showing a nice improvement on their last games too.

        I think that the Cardinals offense has an edge for this game and they have enough quality to win this game by at least by a touchdown.


        Pick: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek

        Comment


        • First pick for NFL 2009, Week 15:

          Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

          Comment


          • NFL 2009, Week 15, 5 spreads and 2 totals:

            Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

            Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

            Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Cleveland Browns ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

            Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

            Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek

            Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens: Under 40 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

            Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

            I might still have something for the SNF and the MNF...



            Below is my Week 14 results recap:

            Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (30-10: LOSS)
            New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 36.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-26: WIN)
            Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (10-16: WIN)
            Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: Green Bay Packers -3.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek (14-21: WIN)
            San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys: San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-20: WIN)
            Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (SNF): Under 44 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (38-45: LOSS)
            Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek (24-9: LOSS)

            SIDES: 2-2; TOTALS: 2-1 (Week 14: +0.6 units);

            NFL 2009 Season record: 50-54-1 (-8.57 units lost/104 units risked);
            SIDES: 46-45 (-3.25 units won/91 units risked);
            TOTALS 4-9 (-5.32 units lost/13 units risked).

            Comment


            • NFL 2009 Week 16 first pick:

              San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers +3 -110 (1.91) The Greek & San Diego Chargers ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes


              Below is my Week 15 results recap:

              106 - Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-24: LOSS)
              107 - Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-24 OT: LOSS)
              108 - Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Cleveland Browns ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker (34-41: WIN)
              109 - Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-41: LOSS)
              110 - Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek (37-36: LOSS)
              111 - Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens: Under 40 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (31-7: WIN)
              112 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (7-24: LOSS)

              SIDES: 1-4; TOTALS: 1-1 (Week 14: -2.09 units);

              NFL 2009 Season record: 52-59-1 (-12.56 units lost/111 units risked);
              SPREADS: 46-47-1 (-6.25 units lost/93 units risked);
              TOTALS: 5-10 (-5.41 units lost/15 units risked);
              ML: 1-2 (-0.9 units lost/3 units risked).

              Comment


              • Hey Tommy, Good Luck. Merry Christmas.
                "CFB YTD: 5-8-1 -16.2"

                Comment


                • NFL 2009 Week 16, final 12 picks:

                  Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders +3 +105 (2.05) The Greek & Oakland Raiders ML +150 (2.50) Bookmaker & Under 38 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

                  Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

                  Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
                  : Buffalo Bills +9.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek

                  Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek & Houston Texans ML +125 (2.25) Bookmaker

                  Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica & Baltimore Ravens & ML +130 (2.30) The Greek

                  New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

                  Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (SNF): Washington Redskins +7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

                  Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MNF): Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by mavskidd02 View Post
                    Hey Tommy, Good Luck. Merry Christmas.


                    Many thanks mavskidd02! :D

                    Comment


                    • Below is my Week 16 results recap:

                      113 - San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers +3 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-42: WIN)
                      114 - San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes (17-42: WIN)
                      115 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders +3 +105 (2.05) The Greek (23-9: LOSS)
                      116 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders ML +150 (2.50) Bookmaker (23-9: LOSS)
                      117 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Under 38 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (23-9: WIN)
                      118 - Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (17-10: WIN)
                      119 - Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons: Buffalo Bills +9.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek (31-3: LOSS)
                      120 - Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek (20-27: WIN)
                      121 - Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans ML +125 (2.25) Bookmaker (20-27: WIN)
                      122 - Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (23-20: PUSH/VOID)
                      123 - Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens ML +130 (2.30) The Greek (23-20: LOSS)
                      124 - New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (15-29: LOSS)
                      125 - Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (SNF): Washington Redskins +7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-17: LOSS)
                      126 - Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MNF): Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (36-30 OT: LOSS)

                      SIDES: 5-7-1; TOTALS: 1-0 (Week 16: -0.79 units);

                      NFL 2009 Season record: 58-66-2 (-13.35 units lost/124 units risked);
                      SPREADS: 49-52-2 (-8.6 units lost/93 units risked);
                      TOTALS: 6-10 (-4.5 units lost/16 units risked);
                      ML: 3-4 (-0.25 units lost/7 units risked).

                      Have to recognize my shortcomings when it comes to SNF and MNF games...

                      9-18 (0-6 on the last 4 weeks) and -9.85 units lost is not a great calling card...

                      Was doing great until Week 10, since Week 11 it was always downhill rock bottom... :|

                      Comment


                      • NFL 2009 Week 17, final 11 picks:

                        Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills: Under 33 -115 (1.87) The Greek

                        Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns: Cleveland Browns ML -120 (1.83) The Greek

                        Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions: Under 44.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

                        New England Patriots @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

                        Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker

                        Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Atlanta Falcons ML -125 (1.80) Bookmaker

                        Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica

                        Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +140 (2.40) Bookmaker

                        Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +11 -125 (1.80) 5Dimes

                        Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks +6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

                        Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks ML +230 The Greek

                        Comment


                        • Below is my Week 17 results recap:

                          127 - Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills: Under 33 -115 (1.87) The Greek (30-7: LOSS)
                          128 - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns: Cleveland Browns ML -120 (1.83) The Greek (23-17: WIN)
                          129 - Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions: Under 44.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (23-37: LOSS)
                          130 - New England Patriots @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-27: PUSH/VOID)
                          131 - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker (24-30: WIN)
                          132 - Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Atlanta Falcons ML -125 (1.80) Bookmaker (10-20: WIN)
                          133 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (24-0: LOSS)
                          134 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +140 (2.40) Bookmaker (24-0: LOSS)
                          135 - Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +11 -125 (1.80) 5Dimes (13-21: WIN)
                          136 - Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks +6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (13-17: WIN)
                          137 - Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks ML +230 The Greek (13-17: LOSS)

                          SIDES: 5-3-1; TOTALS: 0-2 (Week 17: -0.83 units);

                          NFL 2009 Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked);
                          SPREADS: 52-53-3 (-7.06 units lost/105 units risked);
                          TOTALS: 6-12 (-6.5 units lost/18 units risked);
                          ML: 5-6 (-0.62 units lost/11 units risked).


                          Brief Analysis:

                          Sunday and Monday Night Football games went 9-18, with 0-5 on Totals and 0-1 on Moneylines. This translated on -9.85 units lost.

                          Without those games, I would finish with a 54-53-3 season record and -4.33 units lost. A loss is always a loss, even if it is a small one.

                          Point spreads would finish 43-41 and -3.21 units lost, totals would end 6-7 and -1.5 units lost, moneylines would finish 5-5 and +0.38 units won.

                          Until 2009.11.29, the NFL 2009 Season record would 44-42-1, -1.99 units lost (86 units risked). Without the SNF and MNF games, the season record would be 35-32-1 and -0.14 units lost (67 units risked).

                          From 2009.11.30 until 2010.01.03, the NFL 2009 Season record finished 19-29-2, -12.19 units lost (48 units risked) with a brutal 0-8 on SNF and MNF games, which if we take out of the record, would translate to a 19-21-2 record and -4.19 units lost (40 units risked).

                          So after all, even without the mess caused by the SNF and MNF games, my performance on NFL showed that this season I didn't showed a useful edge on any market, aside the dogs (an obvious one).

                          To simplify things, looking only at the underdogs market for the season, converting the ML Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek (110 - Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek (37-36: LOSS)) in the pointspread, translates to Green Bay Packers +2 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (110 - Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers +2 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (37-36: WIN)), which can be easily verified on any odds history service like the NFL Scores and Odds of the sbrforum.

                          The season record on dogs would finish 17-14-1, +1.13 units won (31 units risked). Without the 4 dogs on SNF and MNF games, the record would be 16-11-1, +3.33 units won.

                          Until 2009.11.29, 8-6-1, +1.13 units won (7-6-1, +0.33 units won without SNF and MNF games). From 2009.11.30 until 2010.01.03, 9-8-1, ZERO units won (9-5-1, +3 units won without SNF and MNF games).

                          On the last 5 weeks of the season, besides the mess on the SNF and MNF games, I also failed to navigate on the favorite picks. I've done some research and on the previous 3 seasons (2006 to 2008), only on 2007 the favs manage to cover (big) since Week 9 until Week 17. On the other 2 seasons, the dogs were kings and did a lot of damage...

                          I don't have any kind of lines history information that go back in time as long as possible since 2005, so if you know anything about this, please let me know, because I would like to spend some time looking at previous seasons before 2006.

                          BTW, until 2009.11.29 my overall season performance on all sports combined without NFL (NHL+NBA+NCAAB) was -7.95 units lost and 334 units risked.

                          From 2009.11.30 until 2010.01.03, NHL+NBA+NCAAB+NCAAF finished with +41.57 units won and 483 units risked. And if I took the college hoops moneylines out of the equation, my overall profits on the last 5 weeks show a great improvement: +54.72 units won and 457 units risked.

                          So, despite the bad NFL 2009 regular season, I've other motives of happiness, specially on the NBA. :P

                          Comment


                          • NFL 2010.01.09 final 3 picks:

                            New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

                            Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

                            Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +170 (2.70) The Greek

                            Comment


                            • NFL 2010.01.10 final 2 picks:

                              Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

                              Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 47 -110 (1.91) The Greek

                              Comment


                              • Below is my NFL 2009 Playoffs - Wild-Card Weekend results recap:

                                New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (14-24: LOSS)
                                Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-14: LOSS)
                                Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Philadelphia Eagles ML +170 (2.70) The Greek (34-14: LOSS)
                                Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (14-33: LOSS)
                                Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 47 -110 (1.91) The Greek (51-45 OT: WIN)

                                NFL 2009 Playoffs Season record: 1-4 (-3.64 units lost/5 units risked);
                                NFL 2009 Regular Season record: 63-71-3 (-14.18 units lost/134 units risked);

                                Comment

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