NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (9/10 - 9/14)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 10 – Monday, September 14

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 1

Tennessee at Pittsburgh
The defending champion Steelers open the regular season against Tennessee on September 10. The Steelers are the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5). Here are all of Week One's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10

Game 451-452: Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 140.646; Pittsburgh 148.444
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 33
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 35
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5); Under


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

Game 453-454: Miami at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.346; Atlanta 134.249
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 45
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 43
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Over

Game 455-456: Kansas City at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.024; Baltimore 134.133
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 9; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9); Under

Game 457-458: Philadelphia at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 141.749; Carolina 144.653
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 46
Vegas Line: Carolina by 1; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-1); Over

Game 459-460: Denver at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.598; Cincinnati 124.924
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3); Over

Game 461-462: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 136.080; Cleveland 128.895
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 7; 36 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Under

Game 463-464: NY Jets at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 128.730; Houston 138.240
Dunkel Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 4; 43
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under

Game 465-466: Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.039; Indianapolis 139.395
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6 1/2); Over

Game 467-468: Detroit at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.925; New Orleans 133.469
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 12 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+12 1/2); Under

Game 469-470: Dallas at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.674; Tampa Bay 128.129
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Under

Game 471-472: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 129.708; Arizona 139.069
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-6 1/2); Over

Game 473-474: Washington at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 130.475; NY Giants 140.912
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-6); Over

Game 475-476: St. Louis at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.293; Seattle 130.343
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 6; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7); Under

Game 477-478: Chicago at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.555; Green Bay 131.413
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Under


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

Game 479-480: Buffalo at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.186; New England 141.431
Dunkel Line: New England by 15; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 10 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10 1/2); Over

Game 481-482: San Diego at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 135.454; Oakland 130.115
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+7); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 1

Thursday, 9/10/2009

TENNESSEE at PITTSBURGH, 8:30 PM ET NFC
TENNESSEE: 7-0 ATS in September
PITTSBURGH: 6-0 Over vs. AFC South


Sunday, 9/13/2009

MIAMI at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 1-6 ATS vs. NFC
ATLANTA: 11-5 Over in home games

KANSAS CITY at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 6-0 ATS as double digit underdog
BALTIMORE: 5-1 Over in September

PHILADELPHIA at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 7-3 Under as road favorite
CAROLINA: 74-48 ATS as underdog

DENVER at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 6-0 Over Away vs. AFC
CINCINNATI: 8-20 ATS at home in September

MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 83-59 Over in road games
CLEVELAND: 8-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

NY JETS at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
NY JETS: 5-1 Over as road dog of 7pts or less
HOUSTON: 9-2 Over at home if total is between 42.5 and 45

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 2-10 ATS vs. conference
INDIANAPOLIS: 4-0 Under 1st 2 wks of season

DETROIT at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 8-1 ATS as double digit underdog
NEW ORLEANS: 17-6 Over vs. NFC

DALLAS at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
DALLAS: 6-1 ATS as road favorite of 7pts or less
TAMPA BAY: 27-6 Under 1st two wks of season

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 7-16 ATS vs. NFC
ARIZONA: 9-1 Over in home games

WASHINGTON at NY GIANTS, 4:15 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 22-9 Under 1st 2 wks of season
NY GIANTS: 20-8 ATS vs. NFC

ST LOUIS at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 0-8 ATS in September
SEATTLE: 4-0 ATS vs. St. Louis

CHICAGO at GREEN BAY, 8:20 PM ET NBC
CHICAGO: 13-20 ATS vs. Green Bay
GREEN BAY: 22-10 Over in all games


Monday, 9/14/2009

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
BUFFALO: 21-12 Under vs. New England
NEW ENGLAND: 8-3 ATS at home vs. Buffalo

SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND, 10:15 PM ET ESPN
SAN DIEGO: 14-3 ATS at Oakland
OAKLAND: 12-26 ATS as home underdog

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL


Week 1

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 10

8:30 PM
TENNESSEE vs. PITTSBURGH
Tennessee is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games



Sunday, September 13

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. TAMPA BAY
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
Tampa Bay is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Dallas

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. CINCINNATI
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Denver is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NEW ORLEANS
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 10 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. BALTIMORE
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Kansas City is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. ATLANTA
Miami is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CLEVELAND
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. HOUSTON
NY Jets are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games on the road
NY Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CAROLINA
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Carolina is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

4:15 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Arizona is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SEATTLE
St. Louis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis

4:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
Washington is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

8:20 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago


Monday, September 14

7:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

10:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home


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[Udog]

NFL


Thursday, September 10

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Game of the day: Titans at Steelers
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Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 35)

Matchup stats and trends

Line movement

The first lines for Week 1 of the NFL regular season were posted way back in April at some sportsbooks with Pittsburgh initially installed as a 5-point favorite in this game. The line dropped to -4.5 during the summer, but came back up to -5 during the preseason. This week the money has been coming in on Pittsburgh with the line standing at -6.

The total was initially 35.5 in April and dropped to 35 in June. That’s the same number most sportsbooks are using now, although the money appears to be coming in on the under. It’s touched 34.5 in some spots.

Pittsburgh opened as a -230 favorite on the moneyline and has now risen to -270. The Titans have gone from +190 to +230 at most sportsbooks. This current moneyline gives Pittsburgh a 72 percent chance of winning the game straight up.

Roethlisberger says no to deal

The woman who accuses Ben Roethlisberger of sexually assaulting her at Vegas hotel in the summer of 2008 said on Wednesday she would drop her civil lawsuit against Roethlisberger pending a concession from the Steelers quarterback.

The accuser says she wants Roethlisberger to admit the assault happened, issue an apology in a letter and donate $100,000 to an abused women’s nonprofit charity in Reno, according to a report in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Roethlisberger’s lawyers rejected the deal and called the proposal “bizarre” and claimed it “insults women who have legitimately suffered from sexual misconduct.”

Big Ben immediately denied the accusation and while the case is still open, Roethlisberger’s case seems to be in a good position.

Former coworkers of the accuser stated in court documents that the woman bragged about having sex with Roethlisberger and fantasized about having his baby.

Long-awaited rematch

The last time the Titans and Steelers met on the field, Tennessee players were disgracing Pittsburgh terrible towels by stomping and pretending to blow their nose with it.

The Titans were celebrating a 31-14 victory that helped them secure the best record in the AFC last season (13-3). A playoff rematch against the Yellow and Black never materialized because the Ravens ousted the top seed from the postseason.

“Being we beat the Super Bowl champions and never had a chance to compete and go play for the Super Bowl left a bad taste in our mouth,” Tennessee safety Chris Hope told the Associated Press.

The Steelers are downplaying the towel stomping of a year ago, but you get the impression from what the players are saying that both sides have something to prove on Thursday.

Return issues

The Titans signed Mark Jones in the offseason to be the team’s lead kick returner. But after an injury-riddled preseason, Tennessee cut ties with the speedster.

It’s unclear who coach Jeff Fisher will turn to for the job. There’s been talk of DB Ryan Mouton or rookie tailback Javon Ringer handling returns, but neither has much experience.

Injuries

Both teams enter tonight’s game healthy with no major injuries. Tennessee only has two players on the injury report with both TE Jared Cook (ankle) and WR Nate Washington (hamstring) being listed as questionable.

Pittsburgh LB Lawrence Timmons (ankle) is doubtful, while TE Sean McHugh and OG Darnell Stapleton are both on the injured reserve list with knee injuries.

Super Bowl Champs

A popular betting system is to fade the defending Super Bowl champion in September. This method has shown some success in past years, but it does not work well in Week 1. The defending Super Bowl champion is a perfect 8-0 straight and 7-0-1 against the spread the past eight years in its opening game.

Weather

Weather is often an issue in Pittsburgh, but normally not in September. The forecast is calling for a 30 percent chance of showers on Thursday night with winds around nine mph. The temperature will be 60 degrees.


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[pm530]

NFL
Write-up


Thursday, September 10

Titans @ Steelers-- Tennessee beat Pittsburgh 31-14 in Week 16 LY, so they're last team to beat Steelers in game that counted; Titans are 9-3-1 vs spread in last 13 games as road dog, 6-2-1 in non-division games. Pitt won its last nine primetime games, is 6-2 vs spread in their last 8 night games at home. Titans are 5-3 in last eight night games, and 12-4-1 vs the spread when a single digit underdog. Tennessee won eight of last ten on road SU. Steelers are 9-6 vs spread as non-divisional home favorite.

Sunday, September 13

Dolphins @ Falcons-- Both teams went 11-5 LY after being doormats the year before; Miami lost its first road game the last five years, is 1-4 in last five series openers, but they're also 9-4-2 as road underdog, 15-6 as non-divisional road dog since 2004. Falcons won their first home tilt in four of last five seasons; they were 5-2-1 as home favorite LY, 6-1-1 as a single digit favorite. Four of Atlanta's last five openers stayed under the total. Dolphins are 21-13-1 vs spread on artificial turf since 2000.

Chiefs @ Ravens-- Home team lost last three series games; Chiefs won their last three visits to this site, but this is whole new Chief team (new QB-coach-GM). KC covered seven of last nine when getting 7+ points, but they're 12-20 vs spread as single digit underdog since '05. Baltimore won last three home openers by 22-7-7 points; they're 23-6-1 vs spread as non-divisional home favorite since 2000 (only 13-10-1 vs divisional foes). Chiefs lost last three season openers by 13-17-7 points. Cassel is practicing with a knee brace after am injury in an exhibition game- when a team fires its offensive coordinator during camp, it can't be a good sign.

Eagles @ Panthers-- Philly lost first road game three of last four years, but they're 8-2 vs spread in last ten tries as road underdog (13-7 as road dog in non-divisional games this decade, 14-8-2 as dog of 3 or less pts). Eagles had injury issues on OL during camp. Carolina lost four of last five home openers, but are 9-5-1 vs spread in last 15 games as a favorite of three or less points. Under is 12-7-1 in Panthers' first four games the last five years. Lined moved from Carolina -1 to Philly -1, primarily due to Panthers' dreadful 0-4 showing in preseason games.

Broncos @ Bengals-- Denver had worst offseason in recent memory, as they downgraded at both head coach/QB. Broncos finished 27-30th in rush defense last two years; they're 6-10 as road dog the last three years, 11-14-1 in last 26 games as single digit dog. Bengals won four of last five home openers; they're 11-19-2 vs spread as a home favorite since 2001, 6-12-1 as single digit favorite the last three years. Cincinnati ranked 24-26-29th in rushing yardage the last three years.

Vikings @ Browns-- Favre played for Mangini with Jets LY; word was the two didn't get along very well. QB issues abound on both sides, with winner of Browns' QB derby still being kept a secret, like its a freaking military secret. Favre showed up August 18 and was anointed Vikings' savior, but is he ready to play a full game? Browns lost last four season openers, by 14-5-27-18 points, scoring just 11 ppg. Minnesota is 5-10-1 vs the spread in its games vs AFC teams last four years- they lost four of last five road openers, but were underdog in all five games.

Jets @ Texans-- Jersey Jets won last three series games by average score of 25-11; they covered 12 of last 18 as road dog, but are 5-14-1 vs spread in 19 games as non-divisional road dog. LY, Jets improved from 29th to 7th in rush defense, 26th to 7th in sacks, 19th to 9th in rushing offense LY, so why exctly did they change coaches? Texans are 16-16 last two years, despite -23 turnover ratio; if they protect ball better this season, they're solid playoff sleeper team. Texans lost four of last five openers.

Jaguars @ Colts-- Jax is 2-3 in last five visits here, but no losses were by more than seven points; Jags' season was messed up in opener LY when they lost two OL guys for year in first game- they finished 18th LY in rushing, their worst rank since 2001. Indy won four of last five openers, with wins by 14-7-19-31 points, but hard to overestimate loss of coach Dungy, a calming force. Colts having issues at LT, protecting Manning's blindside. Jaguars are 16-8-1 vs spread in last 25 games as a road dog.

Lions @ Saints-- Detroit went 0-16 LY, losing 42-7 at home to Saints late in season, game in which Brees was 30-40/351 passing in easy win; Lions are 31-97 SU this decade, but covered 13 of last 16 when getting double digit points- they're 15-13 as non-divisional dog on road the last six seasons. Saints were 4-1 as home fave LY after 4-14 mark previous four years- they're 0-2 as double digit favorite since '01, 5-10 as a home favorite in non-divisional games since '04. Lions lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 13+ points.

Cowboys @ Bucs-- A new coach, new QB for retooled Bucs, who also lost starting safety (suspension) for first four games. Tampa is 7-3-1 vs spread in last 11 games as home dog, 5-1-1 in non-divison games. Bucs are 6-8-2 vs spread in last 16 games as dog of three or less points. Dallas covered last six tries as road favorite of three or less points; they're 11-8 as road favorite since '03. Three of last four series totals were 22 or less. Leftwich got nod as starting QB, then Bucs traded McCown to Jaguars, after many had thought McCown outplayed Leftwich this summer. This was after Tampa Bay fired their offensive coordinator. Uh-oh.

49ers @ Cardinals-- Niners have 7th offensive coordinator in last seven years, 3rd OL coach in last three- they decided on Hill as starting QB, while NFC champ Cardinals have explosive offense back led by Warner with HC Wisenhunt now calling plays. Underdog is 4-0 vs spread in the 49ers' last four visits here, with teams splitting the games. Cardinals are 11-8 as home favorite since 2005, but just 5-9 in last 14 games as home favorite in NFC West games. Niners are 11-4-1 as divisional road dog.

Redskins @ Giants-- Big Blue covered first meeting in this twice-yearly series last five years, winning four of last five games played here, with wins by 6-28-16-9 points. Average total in last three series games played here was 25.7. Giants are hurting at WR, so they'll try to run ball down Redskins' throats-- Washington ranked 4th/8th in rush defense last two years. Skins covered five of last six as road dog in divisional games, but are 12-14 as single digit dog since '05. Giants are 19-11 as home faves. Former Giant QB Woodson is now on Redskin practice squad, no doubt Washington coaches are picking his brain.

Rams @ Seahawks-- Seattle won last eight series games, taking last four here by average score of 31-14 (3-1 vs spread); Hawks are 8-3 vs spread an an NFC West home fave since '05, 9-6 as home fave in all games the last two years. Rams lost last five road openers, getting outscored 62-6 last two years- they're 11-19 as road dog since '04, 15-27 vs spread as a single digit dog during that time. Both coaches are in first game with new team. Interesting to see if Rams are any better at stopping running game. Bulger hasn't played since breaking pinky on right hand last month.

Bears @ Packers-- Cutler makes Bear debut here, highest touted QB for Chicago since Luckman. 177th meeting in NFL's oldest rivalry-- Bears had won four in a row at Lambeau before the 37-3 debacle here last year. Chicago is 16-23-2 as road dog since '02, but 5-3-1 in division road games the last five years. Packers switched defenses with Capers the new DC; they're 8-6 as home favorite since 2006, 5-3 in NFC North games. Pack is just 2-3 SU in its last five home openers, winning last two by 3-5 pts.

Monday, September 14

Bills @ Patriots-- Brady's return biggest story as NE goes for 12th win in row in this division series; Bills lost last five visits here by average of 14 points with four of those five games staying under total. Bills are 7-2 vs spread in last nine tries as AFC East road dog, but are just 4-6 if they are getting 10+ points. Buffalo lost last five night games, allowing 31.8 ppg. Five of Patriots' last seven night games were decided by three pts. Pats are 4-8 as AFC East home fave, 7-10 as a double digit favorite. It is unclear how big a mess Buffalo has after firing OC Schonert last week.

Chargers @ Raiders-- San Diego won last 10 series games, taking last five visits here by average score of 27-13 (5-0 vs spread). Bolts are 31-16 as single digit favorite since '03- they won six of last seven night games; five of the six wins were by 19+ points. Raiders lost last 11 night games; last eight losses were all by 9+ points- they're 2-12 as AFC West home dog since 2003, and 20-35-1 as single digit dog in that period. Only once in this 0-10 series skid have Raiders lost to Chargers by less than seven.

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[pm530]

NFL


Thursday, September 10

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Tips and Trends
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Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers [NBC | 8:30 PM ET]

Titans: Early money has been on defending world champion Pittsburgh in a revenge spot, but Tennessee has cashed 16 of the past 22 times it has been an underdog. The Titans played probably their finest game of the season last year in beating the Steelers, 31-14, at home on Dec. 21 in a matchup that decided the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Titans quarterback Kerry Collins is 3-0 versus the Steelers in his career. Tennessee has won 16 of its last 19 regular-season contests. The Titans no longer have dominant run defender Albert Haynesworth. Tennessee was 28-11 with Haynesworth in its lineup and 3-7 when he didn’t play. The Titans will test the Steelers’ top-ranked defense with a 1-2 punch of speedy Chris Johnson and bruising LenDale White running behind a physical offensive line. Rookie wide receiver Kenny Britt has looked good in preseason and could surprise.

The Titans are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
The Over has cashed 7 of the past eight times these two teams have played in Pittsburgh.

Key Injuries - Wide receiver Nate Washington (hamstring) is doubtful.
Tight end Jared Cook (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 16

Steelers (-6, O/U 35): The Steelers are attempting to become only the ninth Super Bowl champion to repeat in 43 years. The Steelers will try to take advantage of the Titans losing star run-stuffer Albert Haynesworth to the Redskins in free agency by using a balanced attack of running back Willie Parker and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger throwing to wide receivers Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and tight end Heath Miller. The Steelers had the best defense in the NFL last year ranking first against the pass and No. 2 against the run. Linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley combined for 27 ½ sacks. They’ll try to take advantage of the immobility of veteran Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins. Pittsburgh lost only two starters from last season. The Steelers have covered in five of their last six season-openers. They are 24-8 against the number as a home favorite of between 3 ½ and 10 points.

The Over has cashed in 30 of Pittsburgh’s last 43 home games.
The Steelers have gone Over in 13 of their last 17 AFC games.

Key Injuries - Linebacker Lawrence Timmons (ankle) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (OVER - Total of the Day)


Note: The “Side of the Day” is in the NCAAF, see: “NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (9/10 - 9/12)”

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[rocko]

YOYOYO U--DOG ANOTHER YEAR IS HERE YEAHH BABBBYYYY,,,,,, JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE U KNOW HOW MUCH I APPRECIATE EVERYTHING U DO HERE ,,,THANK U SO MUCH I KNOW IT IS A LOT OF WORK TO DO DAY IN AND DAY OUT BUT U KNOW I LOVEEEE YOUR AVATAR WITH ME LIVING HERE IN ST.LOUIS THE CITY IS BUZZING BOUT CARDINALS BUT WE LOVE OUR BASEBALL HERE,I ALREADY HAVE MY PLAYOFF TICKETS LINE UP,IM JUST HOPING THEY DID NOT CHEL AT THE WRONG TIME,U KNOW WHAT I'M SAYING BUT AANYHOW
THANK U MY BROTHER GLLL THIS YEAR AND KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK I SURE DO USE IT
GEtTER DONE PEACE

[pm530]

NFL
Long Sheet


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Thursday, September 10
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TENNESSEE (13 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (15 - 4) - 9/10/2009, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 78-49 ATS (+24.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Sunday, September 13
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MIAMI (11 - 6) at ATLANTA (11 - 6) - 9/13/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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KANSAS CITY (2 - 14) at BALTIMORE (13 - 6) - 9/13/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (11 - 7 - 1) at CAROLINA (12 - 5) - 9/13/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 74-48 ATS (+21.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 128-89 ATS (+30.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (8 - 8) at CINCINNATI (4 - 11 - 1) - 9/13/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (10 - 7) at CLEVELAND (4 - 12) - 9/13/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (9 - 7) at HOUSTON (8 - 8) - 9/13/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (5 - 11) at INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 5) - 9/13/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (0 - 16) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 8) - 9/13/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (9 - 7) at TAMPA BAY (9 - 7) - 9/13/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 9) at ARIZONA (12 - 8) - 9/13/2009, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (8 - 8) at NY GIANTS (12 - 5) - 9/13/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (2 - 14) at SEATTLE (4 - 12) - 9/13/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 98-130 ATS (-45.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 71-101 ATS (-40.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 98-130 ATS (-45.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (9 - 7) at GREEN BAY (6 - 10) - 9/13/2009, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Monday, September 14
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (7 - 9) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 5) - 9/14/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 123-93 ATS (+20.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (9 - 9) at OAKLAND (5 - 11) - 9/14/2009, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 4-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[BettorsChat]

Sagarin NFL ratings

USATODAY.com

[Udog]

YOYOYO U--DOG ANOTHER YEAR IS HERE YEAHH BABBBYYYY,,,,,, JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE U KNOW HOW MUCH I APPRECIATE EVERYTHING U DO HERE ,,,THANK U SO MUCH I KNOW IT IS A LOT OF WORK TO DO DAY IN AND DAY OUT BUT U KNOW I LOVEEEE YOUR AVATAR WITH ME LIVING HERE IN ST.LOUIS THE CITY IS BUZZING BOUT CARDINALS BUT WE LOVE OUR BASEBALL HERE,I ALREADY HAVE MY PLAYOFF TICKETS LINE UP,IM JUST HOPING THEY DID NOT CHEL AT THE WRONG TIME,U KNOW WHAT I'M SAYING BUT AANYHOW
THANK U MY BROTHER GLLL THIS YEAR AND KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK I SURE DO USE IT
GEtTER DONE PEACE

Hey. rocko!! Good to see you, buddy! I was working over the road all day and didn't see this til Thursday night.

I'm really excited about the Redbirds' chances this post-season! What a lineup! The guys can hang with anybody.

Good move lining up those playoff tickets! They're going to be hard to come by and very expensive later on.

I'm glad football is here! I had a scare last weekend watching the Sooner game but it looks like Bradford's going to be fine. The look on his face made me worry he was thinking he'd never see his senior season or the NFL.

Well, let's have a great season, rocko! It's that pluck the book time of year!

If you see any good info anywhere, throw it in!

[pm530]

NFL


Friday, September 11

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Total bias: NFL Week 1 over/under plays
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In today’s world, there are several jobs to avoid at all costs: Real estate agent, mortgage lender and NFL offensive coordinator.

For those small bankers that think they have it bad, just look at the pro play callers. Chan Gailey, Jeff Jagodzinski and Turk Schonert were fired by the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Bills. Just days before the season begins, those teams elected to fire the men in charge of making sure they put points on the board.

Chicago offensive coordinator Ron Turner should send a thank you note to coach Lovie Smith; the former Illinois coach’s attack still is about as effective as wings on a chicken.

But as for those teams whose offenses are in flux, bettors have been unfazed by the last-second moves. The opening total lines haven’t moved much. Most books have the total for Kansas City-Baltimore steady at 37, Buffalo-New England consistent at 48 and Tampa Bay-Dallas still at 39.

And let’s not forget that even Turtle from "Entourage" was scoring more than the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Bills last fall.

Last season under Gailey, the Chiefs were ranked 24th in the league in offense, averaging 18.2 points and 308.7 yards per game. Schonert, who tried to install a no-huddle approach this year, saw his unit rank 25th last year, averaging just 21 points and 305.1 yards per game. Meantime, Jagodzinski, was in his first year with the Bucs, trying to turn around a group ranked 14th, but averaging just 22.6 points and 341 yards.

The bottom line? First-year coaches Raheem Morris in Tampa Bay and Todd Haley in Kansas City tried to find scapegoats for poor preseason performances and Dick Jauron is trying to do anything he can to cool off the hot seat in Buffalo.

For bettors, don’t expect these offenses to make any huge jumps before opening kickoff this weekend. Tila Tequila has a better chance at landing a job as an anchor on FOXNews than these units do of getting their acts together. And history agrees. The under was 9-7 in Week 1 last year and is a combined 32-16 the past three seasons.

These three games are going to be ugly to watch, but can be beautiful to a bettor’s bank account.

Kansas City at Baltimore – Under 37

Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel might want to spend some more time recovering from that sprained MCL.

After all, Baltimore finished last season ranked second in the league in total defense and is just as nasty as ever with Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and the electric Ed Reed.

The Ravens want to pound the ball against an improved Chief’s defense and let their defense dictate the action. Kansas City will have trouble avoiding the shutout.

Kansas City backup quarterbacks Brady Croyle and Tyler Thigpen better stay loose.

Buffalo at New England– Under 48

The Bills were so bad on offense last year, the player that took the majority of snaps in a quarter of their games – J.P. Lossman – is playing in the UFL this year. Good luck, Trent Edwards.

Buffalo running back Marshawn Lynch also will miss the first three games of the season and who knows what Terrell Owens will show up at receiver.

The Patriots will work hard to get their offense back in synch with quarterback Tom Brady, but don’t expect coach Bill Belichick to run up the score. He knows this team needs to be fresh and will work to keep his starters healthy.

The Bills should play just enough defense to keep this number under the total.

Dallas at Tampa Bay – Over 39

Byron Leftwich, let me introduce you to Dallas linebacker DeMarcus Ware. He’s going to be the guy making you eat turf on Sunday afternoon.

The Cowboys offense has looked solid in the preseason and looks to be more explosive as Roy Williams learns the playbook and Felix Jones finds a definitive role. Tony Romo should continue to distribute the ball to his playmakers and take advantage of short fields generated by an aggressive defense.

This matchup won’t be a shootout, but if Leftwich can generate at least two scoring drives, the final score should have no trouble passing the total.

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[pm530]

NFL


Sunday, September 13

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Sunday Night Football: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 46.5)

Line: The Packers opened as 3-point home favorites and the total opened at 43. The line has moved to -3.5 and the total is 46.5 at most sports books. Oddsmakers have said that most of the sharp money has come in on the Bears, but that the public favors the Packers.

Weather: The weather is expected to be 56 degrees at game time or higher with humidity around 60 percent. There is a 10-percent chance of precipitation, and a 5 mph wind coming in from the southeast.

Cutler gets the hype, Rodgers has been hot

Although this nationally televised, prime-time affair will mark the debut of quarterback acquisition Jay Cutler, his counterpart in Green Bay has Packers fans and local media anticipating a breakout year.

Aaron Rodgers has operated with much less fanfare than Cutler, but there’s a decent chance he had the best preseason of any NFL quarterback. Rodgers completed more than 70 percent of his throws with six touchdowns against zero interceptions.

“I think it tells you that I was very prepared, I took care of my body this off-season and wanted to put myself in a good situation in training camp to have the kind of preseason that I did,” Rodgers told the media. “Other than that, I think it tells us that our offense has some confidence right now, but we’re going to have to carry that over.”

Rodgers has avoided the off-field controversy that has dogged Cutler. He managed to stay out of the limelight while the Brett Favre drama swirled around Green Bay last season and went on to a fine debut season as an NFL starting quarterback.

Rodgers threw for more than 4,000 yards and had 28 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. Cutler threw for more than 4,500 yards and earned a Pro Bowl spot. But the new Chicago quarterback is just 17-20 as an NFL starter and comes to the Windy City with some questions surrounding his character after his run-ins with new coach Josh McDaniels forced his trade out of Denver.

Looking to get defensive

Defense has long been the hallmark of the Chicago Bears, but it was perhaps their weakest link last year. Green Bay’s failures on defense also cost the Packers several close games.

Both teams take new approaches this season to fix contrasting problems. The Bears were a Top-5 run defense but had the league’s 30th ranked pass defense and registered just 28 sacks. The Packers were solid against the pass but were among the league’s worst at stopping the run, allowing 131 yards per game.

Bear coach Lovie Smith took matters into his own hands by taking over the defense in the offseason. He got a little help by bringing in former Detroit Lions head coach Rod Marinelli, a longtime defensive specialist, to help shore up the defensive line.

The Packers brought in the well-traveled Dom Capers, a former head coach of the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans, to install a 3-4 defense. Green Bay had been running a standard 4-3. Packers coach Mike McCarthy told the media he has been pleased with the results thus far. The Packers’ first team gave up just 13 points in 13 possessions in the exhibition season.

“I felt coming out of the off-season program that our players had a pretty good grasp of our defensive scheme when we left here in June, and it showed up in training camp,” McCarthy told reporters.

Coaches on the hot seat?

There’s nothing quite like speculation about a coach’s job security before the first kickoff takes place. But both Smith and McCarthy have had their share of criticism.

The coaches have each shown up on numerous “hot seat” lists in the NFC, with the implication that another down season could cost them their jobs. Of course, the same can be said about every coach in the NFC North with exception of Detroit’s Jim Schwartz, who is bound to be given a little time to clean up the mess he inherited.

McCarthy earned a little slack by leading the Packers to the NFC title game in his first season, but it stands to reason that the Packers faithful won’t tolerate too many more 6-10 campaigns.

Smith similarly earned a little bit of a cushion by leading the Bears to a Super Bowl berth, but a third straight season without a playoff spot is certain to put his job at risk.

Trends

Both teams won at home last season in this divisional rivalry, with the Packers winning 37-3 on their home turf and the Bears winning 20-17 in Chicago. The Packers got the money in both games, covering easily at home and sneaking inside the 4-point spread at Chicago.

The under is 7-2 in Chicago’s last nine road games but the over is 9-2 in Green Bay’s last 11 games as a home favorite. The road team is 13-6-1 ATS in the past 20 games between the two rivals.

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[pm530]

NFL


Sunday, September 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 1 betting notes
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Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Why Dolphins cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Chad Pennington could have a field day with Atlanta's young secondary.

Why Falcons cover: Are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 1. Three-headed monster (Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Michael Turner) now have a full season together under their belts and will look to improve on last year's impressive numbers.

Total (43): Over is 9-3 in Falcons' last 12 home games.


Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

Why Chiefs cover: Are 3-0 straight up in Baltimore and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Larry Johnson is healthy and ready for a bounce back season. Ravens will have to prove they can still be a dominant defensive team without coordinator Rex Ryan.

Why Ravens cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. K.C. could be without new QB Matt Cassel who sustained a knee injury in the preseason. Tony Gonzalez, the Chiefs' leading receiver last year, is now a Falcon.

Total (36): Under is 4-0 in Chiefs' last four road games and 5-2 in Ravens' last seven games overall.


Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (+1)

Why Eagles cover: Have won four of five all-time meetings. Are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. Made multiple transactions to bolster offensive line in the offseason.

Why Panthers cover: Are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Eagles' offensive catalyst Brian Westbrook is coming off ankle surgery and didn't play in the preseason. Philly's defense could be vulnerable without defensive guru Jim Johnson, who passed away in the offseason.

Total (43 1/2): Under is 4-0 in Eagles' last four games in Week 1.


Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)

Why Broncos cover: Have won 10 of last 12 meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Carson Palmer could be rusty after missing most of last season and this preseason with injuries.

Why Bengals cover: Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings and could be without new QB Kyle Orton who has a finger injury. The new-look Broncos will be dealing with a new head coach and multiple new players at key positions. It is unclear if disgruntled wideout Brandon Marshall will be a factor for Denver.

Total (43): Under is 8-2-1 in Bengals' last 11 home games.


Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (+4)

Why Vikings cover: Have won last three meetings. Browns are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Kevin and Pat Williams, who are facing drug suspensions, will be available for Minnesota. Cleveland could have a tough time running the ball.

Why Browns cover: New coach Eric Mangini revamped the defense in the offseason. Brady Quinn has been solid in the preseason and looks to have the starting quarterback job over incumbent Derek Anderson, who posted a dismal 66.5 rating last year.

Total (40): Over is 6-2 in Vikings' last eight road games.


New York Jets at Houston Texans (-4.5)

Why Jets cover: Have never lost to the Texans (3-0). Have new defensive approach under boss Rex Ryan who had success running the Ravens' aggressive defense. Rex Grossman could start at QB for Houston with Matt Schaub battling an ankle injury.

Why Texans cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez will be making his first pro start, expect some growing pains.

Total (43 1/2): Under is 5-1 in Texans' last six games on grass.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)

Why Jaguars cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Indianapolis. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Peyton Manning faces life after Marvin Harrison and the offense could struggle to adjust. Indy will be without defensive stud Bob Sanders, who has a knee injury.

Why Colts cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Maurice Jones-Drew is banged up and the Jags don't have the luxury of turning to Fred Taylor this season.

Total (44): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.


Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-13)

Why Lions cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Both Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas are banged up for New Orleans, leaving their running game in question. Thomas is unlikely to play at all.

Why Saints cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Lions will go with rookie Matt Stafford over veteran QB Daunte Culpepper. Stafford had a mediocre preseason and should struggle. Brought in coordinator Gregg Williams to implement attacking defensive scheme.

Total (44 1/2): Over is 11-1-1 in Saints' last 13 home games.


Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6)

Why Cowboys cover: Have won last two meetings. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Tampa Bay just fired new offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski and none of their QBs had very good preseasons. The distraction of Terrell Owens is gone.

Why Buccaneers cover: Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Although Cadillac Williams is coming off his second major knee injury in as many years, he has looked very good in the preseason. Brought in TE Kellen Winslow and RB Derrick Ward to boost the offense.

Total (39): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings


San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

Why 49ers cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Arizona. Are a different team with Shaun Hill at quarterback and he now gets to begin the season prepped as the starter. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Road team is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Why Cardinals cover: Have won six of last eight meetings. Kurt Warner only lost to San Francisco once in the 10 times he has started against them.

Total (46): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Arizona and 8-3 in the last 11 meetings overall.


Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6.5)

Why Redskins cover: Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Giants struggled without Plaxico Burress last season and with Amani Toomer also out of the picture, expect the passing game to suffer. Beefed up already formidable defense with run stopper Albert Haynesworth.

Why Giants cover: Have won seven of past 10 meetings. Favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in New York and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings overall. Skins QB Jason Campbell has been inconsistent and the explosive Giants' defense could give him fits.

Total (37 1/2): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 6-0 in the last six meetings in New York.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-9)

Why Rams cover: Plan on using Steven Jackson the same way as the Eagles use Brian Westbrook. Offense should benefit from having his role expanded. Defensive minded coach Steve Spagnuolo could exploit Seattle's lack-luster ground game.

Why Seahawks cover: Have won last eight meetings. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings. Matt Hasselbeck is finally healthy. Defense should get to Marc Bulger often.

Total (41 1/2): Under is 4-1 in Seahawks' last five home games and 4-1-1 in Rams' last six games overall.


Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Why Bears cover: Have won four of last six meetings. Road team is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Jay Cutler has looked good in the preseason and could be the missing piece of the puzzle for Chicago.

Why Packers cover: Brought in Dom Capers to jump-start the defense. Bears are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Total (46 1/2): Under is 5-0 in Bears’ last five season openers and the over is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games as favorites.


Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-10.5)

Why Bills cover: The addition of Terrell Owens gives Trent Edwards two dynamic receivers to stretch the field. Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Fred Jackson played well in place of Marshawn Lynch last season and will start again while Lynch is suspended.

Why Patriots cover: Have won last 11 meetings. Tom Brady is back from last season's knee injury. Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in New England and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings overall.

Total (47 1/2): Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in New England and 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall.


San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+9)

Why Chargers cover: Have won last 11 meetings. Are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Oakland and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings overall. Favorite is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

Why Raiders cover: Are 15-6 all-time at home on Monday Night Football. Chargers' continue to deal with Shawne Merriman's off-field distractions.

Total (43): Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings.

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[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, September 13

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Tips and Trends
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Washington Redskins at New York Giants [4:15 PM ET]

Redskins: To those who favor taking an NFL ‘dog getting around a touchdown with a low-scoring total, the Redskins are a prime candidate. The Redskins had a top-five defense last year allowing 288 yards per game and added star run-stuffer Albert Haynesworth and rookie pass rusher Bryan Orapako. Washington opened 6-2, but closed just 8-8 after that hot start as its offense finished 28th in points scored averaging 16.6 per game. The Redskins are counting on veterans Clinton Portis, who rushed for 1,487 yards, and wideout Santana Moss, who had 1,044 receiving yards. Improvement is needed from quarterback Jason Campbell, who should be better playing in coach Jim Zorn’s system a second season. He threw 13 touchdown passes last season. The under has come in the past six times these teams have played at Giants Stadium. The underdog, however, has covered only twice in the past nine meetings.

The Redskins are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games during Week 1.
The Under is 10-1-1 in Washington’s last 12 games overall.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 16 (Side of the Day)

Giants (-6.5, O/U 37): Brandon Jacobs spearheads a Giants ground attack that led the NFL in rushing last season. Jacobs ran for 1,089 yards and scored 15 touchdowns. Speedy third-year back Ahmad Bradshaw will spell Jacobs. The key for the Giants is building up their passing attack minus Plaxico Burress. New York averaged 29.9 points with Burress and 18.2 points after he was suspended, while dropping four of its last five games, including a home playoff loss to the Eagles. Eli Manning is looking for a No. 1 go-to wide receiver among his largely inexperienced wideouts to replace Burress so he can stretch defenses and keep them from stacking the line against the run. The Giants have a fierce pass rush. It has been fortified with the return of star defensive end Osi Umenyiora. New York’s secondary, however, remains a concern. New York is 20-6 against the spread in its last 26.

The Giants are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games against NFC opponents.

Key Injuries - Cornerback Aaron Ross (leg) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21



Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

Bears: Having gone through an NFC-high 11 different starting quarterbacks during the past nine years, the Bears finally hope they found a franchise one in Jay Cutler. He set a Denver franchise record with 384 completion and 4,526 yards passing last year, throwing for 300 or more yards eight times. By comparison, Kyle Orton threw for more than 300 yards just once for Chicago in 2008. The Bears ranked 26th in total yards and were out-gained by an average of 39 yards per game during 2008. The Bears’ defense has slipped since their Super Bowl appearance three years ago. Chicago ranked third-from-the-bottom in pass defense last season giving up 241 yards through the air per contest. Cornerback Charles Tillman is coming off back surgery and may not play. The Bears are 2-7 against the number as a road underdog in the price range of 3 ½ to 10 points.

The Under has cashed in 7 of Chicago’s last nine road contests.

Key Injuries - Cornerback Charles Tillman (back) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Packers (-4, O/U 46.5): Aaron Rodgers ran the Packers’ offense to near perfection during preseason and is poised to attack a vulnerable Bears secondary. Green Bay outscored their preseason foes, 92-58, when its first-string offense was on the field. Rodgers had a near perfect quarterback rating of 147.9. The Packers never punted during preseason when their first-string unit played. Chicago allowed starting quarterbacks to complete better than 80 percent of their throws in preseason. Green Bay’s starting defense also shined during exhibition forcing 13 turnovers, while making the conversion to a 3-4 alignment. The Bears last saw this type of defense in the NFC North in 1994. Green Bay finished four games below .500 last season, but out-gained opponents by 17 yards per game. The Packers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven NFC North contests. They have covered seven of their last nine games in September.

The Over has cashed in 10 of Green Bay’s previous 13 home games.

Key Injuries - Running back Brandon Jackson (ankle) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 26 (UNDER - Total of the Day)


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