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There are a great many fun, marquee games this weekend, but nearly none that I feel confident nor comfortable investing in.
But moving on down past the premier match-ups on the card, and I believe we receive another of those Vegas gifts.
The Purdue Boilermakers are going to be awful. They have a new QB, a new RB, a new tandem of WRs, and 3 new offensive lineman, with a new coach at the helm. Worst of all, none of these new offensive starters is considered anywhere near blue chip caliber. The only solid returning starters for Purdue are on the defensive side of the ball, and to start the season, they have the benefit of the fact that their defense should be able to contain and outmuscle the Toledo offense.
Last year, Toledo's defense was arguably the worst in NCAA football, but it actually got better as the season wore on, giving up far fewer points per game in the latter half of the season, but still giving up an average of 35 per game. This statistic is one of the primary reasons that this total has been set up at 51. While Toledo's defense has probably not taken any huge leaps, they do return 8 starters, and that sort of experience should make them a better unit than we saw in 2008.
On offense, Toledo has many of the same faces, but suffers from the fact that their offensive line likely lacks the size to move the Purdue front seven.
To me, the reality of this game is simple. Purdue is a traditional football power from a powerhouse conference, who just happens to be at one of the lows in school history. They deserve to be a home 7-10 pt favorite. But if you take the spread, -10, and the total, 51, you'll find that the score you are betting for or against is approximately 31-21.
Bottom line is this: I cannot see Purdue managing 31 points against anybody with this first time offense, and I have trouble imagining Toledo making their way to end zone more than once in W Lafayette against the strength of the Boiler team.
These are two ugly, lowly-ranked offenses, and I fully expect an ugly low-scoring game.
TOLEDO/PURDUE WAY Under 51
Good luck all.
But moving on down past the premier match-ups on the card, and I believe we receive another of those Vegas gifts.
The Purdue Boilermakers are going to be awful. They have a new QB, a new RB, a new tandem of WRs, and 3 new offensive lineman, with a new coach at the helm. Worst of all, none of these new offensive starters is considered anywhere near blue chip caliber. The only solid returning starters for Purdue are on the defensive side of the ball, and to start the season, they have the benefit of the fact that their defense should be able to contain and outmuscle the Toledo offense.
Last year, Toledo's defense was arguably the worst in NCAA football, but it actually got better as the season wore on, giving up far fewer points per game in the latter half of the season, but still giving up an average of 35 per game. This statistic is one of the primary reasons that this total has been set up at 51. While Toledo's defense has probably not taken any huge leaps, they do return 8 starters, and that sort of experience should make them a better unit than we saw in 2008.
On offense, Toledo has many of the same faces, but suffers from the fact that their offensive line likely lacks the size to move the Purdue front seven.
To me, the reality of this game is simple. Purdue is a traditional football power from a powerhouse conference, who just happens to be at one of the lows in school history. They deserve to be a home 7-10 pt favorite. But if you take the spread, -10, and the total, 51, you'll find that the score you are betting for or against is approximately 31-21.
Bottom line is this: I cannot see Purdue managing 31 points against anybody with this first time offense, and I have trouble imagining Toledo making their way to end zone more than once in W Lafayette against the strength of the Boiler team.
These are two ugly, lowly-ranked offenses, and I fully expect an ugly low-scoring game.
TOLEDO/PURDUE WAY Under 51
Good luck all.
NBA is a joke
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