Friday Trends and Indexes 9/4 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

[pm530]

CFL
Dunkel Index


Montreal at BC
The Lions look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is just 2-7 ATS in its last 9 meetings in BC. BC is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: BC (+6 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4

Game 401-402: Montreal at BC
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 117.670; BC 112.602
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 5; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: Montreal by 6 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (+6 1/2); Under


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

Game 403-404: Winnipeg at Saskatchewan
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 108.150; Saskatchewan 112.885
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 4 1/2; 54 1/2
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 7; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+7); Over


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

Game 405-406: Toronto at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 104.226; Hamilton 111.289
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 7; 39 1/2
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 5 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-5 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Edmonton at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 109.127; Calgary 115.943
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 7; 54 1/2
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-5 1/2); Under

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CFL
Long Sheet


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Friday, September 4
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MONTREAL (7 - 1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 5) - 9/4/2009, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games when playing on a Friday since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 2-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 2-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 6
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WINNIPEG (3 - 5) at SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 4) - 9/6/2009, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 131-100 ATS (+21.0 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 131-100 ATS (+21.0 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 120-90 ATS (+21.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-1 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 7
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TORONTO (2 - 6) at HAMILTON (4 - 4) - 9/7/2009, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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EDMONTON (5 - 3) at CALGARY (4 - 4) - 9/7/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 4-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Write-up


Week 10 CFL

Friday, September 4

Montreal (7-1) @ BC Lions (3-5)-- Lions are 3-0 when they score 35+ points, 0-5 when they don't- they've lost three of four home games, are 2-2 vs spread as a dog. BC is -11 in turnovers last five games, coughing ball up 17 times. Als are 3-1 on road, with 13 points closest win- they outscored last three foes 37-11 in second half. Lions gave up 393 yards on ground to Winnipeg in last game. Four of Als' last five stayed under.

Sunday, September 6

Winnipeg (3-5) @ Saskatchewan (4-4)-- Bombers ran ball for 393 yards, outscored BC 17-0 in second half of last game. Riders are 3-0 when they allow 25 or less points, 1-4 when they don't; they're 2-2 at home- this is just second time they're favored this season (0-1). Riders were outscored 54-24 in second half of last three games. Underdog covered all five road games for Winnipeg, with Blue Bombers 4-0 as a road underdog.

Monday, September 7

Toronto (2-6) @ Hamilton (4-4)-- Argos (-2) won season opener here 30-17, leading 30-3 at half; they're 1-6 since then, losing last four games by average score of 24-15. Hamilton won last three home games since the opener, allowing 17.3 ppg- they covered six of last seven games, but allowed 33-31 points in losing last two games. All four Hamilton home games stayed under total, as did five of last six Argonaut games.

Edmonton (5-3) @ Calgary (4-4)-- Eskimos won four of last five games, taking last two by combined total of four points- they allowed 30+ pts in five of last seven games. Stampeders (+1) lost 38-35 to Eskimos three weeks ago, despite 30-45/460 passing day for Burris; Stamps are 2-2 at home; they're 3-1 when they score 31+ points, 1-3 otherwise. Five of last seven Edmonton games went over the total.

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CFL


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Trend Report
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Friday, September 4

10:30 PM
MONTREAL vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Montreal is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games when playing British Columbia
Montreal is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
British Columbia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games


Sunday, September 6

4:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Saskatchewan's last 12 games


Monday, September 7

4:00 PM
TORONTO vs. HAMILTON
Toronto is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Hamilton
Toronto is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Hamilton
Hamilton is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games
Hamilton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

7:30 PM
EDMONTON vs. CALGARY
Edmonton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Edmonton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Calgary's last 9 games when playing Edmonton

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CFL


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Canadian bacon: CFL Week 10 preview and picks
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Montreal Alouettes at B.C. Lions (+5.5, 54)

The Lions are impatiently waiting for this game against the Als after an embarrassing lost, prior to their bye week, to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Alouettes haven’t won in Vancouver since 2000. They will also have to manage the three-hour time difference, which is never easy for team from the East playing in the Pacific Coast. Two key players will be missing: safety Matthieu Proulx and left tackle Josh Bourke, but they will be replaced by Etienne Boulay and Skip Seagraves - two players who could easily be starters on most CFL teams.

The Lions don’t bite like they used to on offence and they still didn’t figure out how to stop their opponents’ running games. Marc Trestman says he will not use running back Avon Cobourne more than usual in this showdown but he would be wrong not to use, in these circumstances, such a weapon. The smile on Cobourne’s face tells me that despite what his coach said to the media, he expects to have a huge workload against B.C. If that’s the case, the Lions will be in for a very long night.

Pick: Montreal -5.5


Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-7, 51.5)

The Blue Bombers are coming to Saskatchewan with a renewed energy following their domination of the Lions. Even more so, since the Roughriders defence is a far cry from what it used to be, allowing 256 points after eight games - the most by any CFL team. At the start of the season, nobody feared the Bombers attack but since the arrival of Michael Bishop and with the domination of RB Fred Reid, things have changed. But can Reid and Yvenson Bernard manage to be as productive in this game as they were against the Lions? Let me doubt it. The Roughriders attack is also more diversified, less predictable and, at home, they are always a very tough team. The oddsmakers have established the Riders as 7-point favorites but I doubt they will cover the spread. They should win but it will be a close game until the final whistle.

Pick: Bombers +7


Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger Cats (-6, 47.5)

The Tiger Cats have been playing disciplined football and, within the limits of their talent, it has proven positive since the start of the season. The Argos, despite the fact they seem more talented on paper, have found ways to shoot themselves in the foot and it becomes more obvious each week that their head coach Bart Andrus is no Marc Trestman and that he struggles to master the subtleties of 3-down football. Kevin Glenn and Quinton Porter have proved more accurate than Kerry Joseph, rookie DeAndra’ Cobb is a better running back than Jamal Robertson and defensively, the Tiger Cats play with more cohesion. It won’t be easy, it won’t be pretty but Hamilton should again take advantage of their opponent’s mistakes to steal a victory. The six points, however, is another story.

Pick: Toronto +6


Edmonton Eskimos at Calgary Stampeders (-6, 60)

Ricky Ray has been on fire in the past month and the Eskimos are finally playing to their potential, having won four of their last five - three of them after trailing late in a game. This team has character, no doubt about it. Arkee Whitlock, who had a tough start, is becoming a solid and versatile running back. He rushed for 302 yards in his last two games, scoring three touchdowns for the Eskimos. But can they beat the Stampeders at McMahon Stadium? They only did so once in their last four visits in Calgary. The Eskimos are, in my humble opinion, the best team in the West. But when they meet their Alberta rivals, in Calgary, logic doesn’t prevail.

Pick: Calgary -6

(Last Week 2-0, season 19-13)

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[pm530]

Bettor's best friend : Today's wagering tips


Friday, September 4

No swine here

According to a report in the Times-Picayune, Tulane’s football team is entirely symptom-free from the Swine flu bug that swept through the team in August. All the players who were sick were back on the field for full practices this week.

Head coach Bob Toledo said Saturday’s practice – the first in which all players returned – was a sluggish effort.

Tulane is a 13.5 home dog tonight at home against Tulsa. The total is set at 64.

New QB takes over at Tulsa

G.J. Kinne, a sophomore transfer from Texas, will make his first start tonight for Tulsa, the Tulsa World reports. Kinne will take over the most potent offense statistically in the nation over the past two years and head coach Todd Graham said he wants his new QB to “just manage the game and use the talent that surrounds him.”

The good news for the Golden Hurricane is their playing a Tulsa defense that seemed to have no problems giving up more than 40 points against conference foes last year.

Faster, please

Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon was again fined by major league baseball for slow play. It’s now happened so often, his fines are up to five figures according to the pitcher.

The quirky Papelbon says he’ll have to make adjustments though he swears they won’t affect his play.

“Anytime you have changes or adjustments, there’s a period in which you have to get comfort with it,” Sox pitching coach John Farrell told the Boston Globe. “So if it’s a quicker tempo, a little bit more of a quicker pace to his overall game, that’s going to take some harnessing. The one thing he has shown repeatedly is that any adjustments that has been presented to him, he’s adapted very quickly and continued to pitch well.”

In case you hadn’t noticed, the Jays suck

The Blue Jays have only won four of their last 22 games. Things have to improve sometime though, right?

“Right now, it's kind of tough to see how we're going to be better before the end of the season," manager Cito Gaston told the Toronto Star after last night’s throttling at the hands of the Yankees.

The problems are too numerous to mention, but they mostly have to do with hitting, pitching and fielding. The Jays are -105 against the Yankees with a struggling Roy Halladay on the mound tonight.

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[pm530]

Len’s Top Five


Friday, September 4

Len's Top 5

TGIF everyone, here's my Top 5 for September 4, 2009 from Len Berman Sports.

1. Quick Hits

* Eagles quarterback Michael Vick has been reinstated to the NFL effective the third week of the season. Vick heard some boos in the Meadowlands last night as the Jets sacked him 4 times in beating the Eagles 38-27.

* 17-year old Melanie Oudin from Marietta Georgia ousts # 4 Elena Dementieva at the U.S. Open.

* Is it student athlete or student thug? After Oregon lost to Boise State last night in college football, senior running back LeGarrette Blount decked linebacker Byron Hout with a punch. My guess is Blount will now have plenty of extra time to attend classes.

* It's even a bad year for former Mets. Pitcher Jerry Koosman is sentenced to 6 months in prison in Wisconsin for tax evasion.

* Our thoughts and prayers are with the Tigers Hall of Fame announcer Ernie Harwell. A wonderful man and broadcaster battling cancer at the age of 91.

2. Milestones

A couple of milestones could be reached by Derek Jeter and the Pittsburgh Pirates before this Labor Day weekend is over. Jeter may surpass Lou Gehrig as the Yankees all-time hit leader. How fitting if it happens this weekend. No Yankee has ever been more "workmanlike" despite his lofty wages as Jeter. The Pirates could clinch another losing record. Their 17th straight. Nobody has ever done that in any major sport. The fine working people of Pittsburgh deserve better.

3. Name that Tune

Last Friday I talked about Seattle's Adrian Beltre returning to baseball wearing a cup after he got smashed you know where with a ground ball cupless. When he came to bat the other night they played the theme from the "Nutcracker Suite." "Great Balls of Fire" would have worked just as well.

4. Friday Mailbag

The name game. S.D. writes that his teenage daughter says Mets stands for: "My Entire Team Sucks."
And S.G. thinks the name of the team should be changed to "The New York Meds." And he says, "If Obama gets his way then the next time an injured player is taken off the field they'll have to wait until next season for an MRI and another season until they get surgery."
Editor's Note: This is not a political blog. But "Meet the Meds" sounds like a good theme song to me.

Many of you responded to the story about how long it takes some pros to earn $100-thousand. For example, A-Rod: 6 pitches.
S.F. said: "Being a Junior College Head basketball coach it would take me 16 years to reach $100,000.
And A.V. wrote: "In 1948 as an usher at the RKO Fordham in the Bronx I was making $.50/hour and no taxes were taken out.
Editor's Note: Yeah, but that's when 50-cents was half a dollar!

When I talked about sitting in the bleachers for a World Series game, J.B. wrote that his field level box seat at Yankee Stadium used to be $16. When they upped it to $125 in 2007 he was outta there. He hasn't attended a Yankee game since.

And when I mentioned that I once helped Pee Wee Herman tie his tie, many of you wrote that you were glad I didn't shake hands with him.
Editor's Note: I knew that was coming. (So to speak.)

5. Friday Fodder

The NFL won't allow players to tweet during games. Ya' mean cellphone calls are OK in the huddle?
---
Be still my heart. Hockey training camps open up next week.
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Do you think if I post a naked peep-hole video of myself on the internet, I can get on Oprah too?

Happy Birthday: Former catcher Mike Piazza. 41.
Bonus Birthday: Beyonce. 28.

Today in Sports: Jim Abbott, a one handed pitcher for the Yankees, throws a no-hitter against Cleveland. 1993.
Bonus Event: Swimmer Mark Spitz becomes the first Olympic athlete to win 7 gold medals at the same games. 1972.

The Top 5 is taking off Labor Day. See ya' Tuesday. Enjoy the holiday weekend everyone.

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[pm530]

MLB
Short Sheet


Friday, September 4

National League

FLORIDA at WASHINGTON, 7:05 PM ET
WEST: FLA 10-4 off underdog division win
MOCK: WAS 5-21 off shutout loss

ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH, 7:05 PM ET
WAINWRIGHT: STL 15-1 as a favorite of -175 to -250
HART: PIT 14-43 off BB road games

CHICAGO CUBS at NY METS, 7:10 PM ET
ZAMBRANO: 15-2 TSR as a road favorite of -125 or more
PARNELL: NYM 17-3 at home in Friday

CINCINNATI at ATLANTA, 7:35 PM ET
ARROYO: CIN 20-10 Under Away off win
LOWE: 5-10 TSR as a home favorite of -150 to -200

PHILADELPHIA at HOUSTON, 8:05 PM ET
LEE: PHI 8-0 Away off 4+ home games
RODRIGUEZ: 7-0 TSR at home off team loss

SAN FRANCISCO at MILWAUKEE, 8:05 PM ET
ZITO: SF 24-13 off one run loss
SUPPAN: MIL 0-6 revenging home loss by 6+ runs

ARIZONA at COLORADO, 9:10 PM ET
HAREN: ARI 35-46 after scoring 2 runs or less
HAMMEL: 11-5 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10

SAN DIEGO at LA DODGERS, 10:10 PM ET
LEBLANC: SD 11-4 after a win by 4+ runs
KERSHAW: 8-12 TSR in night games


American League

TEXAS at BALTIMORE, 7:05 PM ET
FELDMAN: 11-1 TSR in road games
TILLMAN: BAL 5-22 in September

NY YANKEES at TORONTO, 7:07 PM ET
CHAMBERLAIN: 9-2 OVER after 2+ consecutive wins
HALLADAY: TOR 22-5 at home with a money line of -100 to -125

MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND, 7:05 PM ET
PAVANO: MIN 4-16 Away vs. lefties
SOWERS: CLE 20-12 off 3 division games

DETROIT at TAMPA BAY, 7:38 PM ET
VERLANDER: DET 3-10 after having won 4 of their last 5
NIEMANN: 15-4 TSR in night games

LA ANGELS at KANSAS CITY, 8:10 PM ET
WEAVER: 22-8 UNDER as a favorite of -150 or more
MECHE: 1-7 TSR at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX, 8:11 PM ET
BYRD: BOS 43-17 against AL Central
GARCIA: CHW 2-9 at home after 2 or more consecutive wins

SEATTLE at OAKLAND, 10:05 PM ET
ROWLAND-SMITH: SEA 2-13 AWAY in September
MAZZARO: OAK 41-30 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5


TSR = Team Start Record
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[pm530]

MLB
Write-up


Friday, September 4

Hot Pitchers
-- West is 3-1, 3.68 in his last four starts. Mock is 3-2, 3.14 in his last five outings.
-- Wainwright is 8-2, 1.23 in his last twelve starts.
-- Arroyo is 1-1, 1.15 in his last four starts.
-- Rodriguez has a 2.57 RA in his last three starts. Lee is 5-1, 2.40 in his six starts for the Phillies.
-- Zito is 4-1, 1.62 in his last eight starts.
-- Hammel is 1-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.
-- Kershaw is 5-2, 1.92 in his last thirteen starts.

-- Feldman is 5-0, 2.89 in his last six starts.
-- Former Indian Pavano has 2.77 RA in his last two starts.
-- Verlander is 3-1, 3.03 in his last four starts. Niemann is 3-0, 4.02 in his last six starts.
-- Weaver has a 2.21 RA in his last three starts.
-- Byrd threw six shutout innings in his first '09 start.

Cold Pitchers
-- Zambrano is 0-2, 7.64 in his last four starts. Parnell is 0-3, 15.63 in his last three starts.
-- Hart is 1-3, 6.85 in his last four starts.
-- Lowe is 1-1, 8.79 in his last three starts.
-- Suppan is 1-4, 7.45 in his last nine starts.
-- Arizona lost Haren's last three road starts (0-2, 6.50).
-- Leblanc is 0-1, 9.58 in three starts for the Padres.

-- Chamberlain is 1-2, 8.22 in his last five starts. Halladay is 2-5, 5.51 in his last seven starts.
-- Tillman is 1-2, 4.46 in seven starts this year.
-- Sowers is 1-2, 5.39 in his last four starts.
-- Meche has a 9.86 RA in his last five starts.
-- Garcia is 0-2, 5.94 in three starts for White Sox.
-- Mortensen gave up eight runs un four IP in his first big league start. Rowland-Smith is 0-1, 4.05 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Phillies are 15-7 in their last 22 games.
-- Reds won last four games, scoring 26 runs.
-- Cardinals won 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Brewers won last three home games, scoring 19 runs.
-- Arizona won six of its last eight games.
-- Padres won seven of their last nine games.

-- Rangers won their last three games, scoring 16 runs.
-- Bronx won 17 of its last 22 games.
-- Red Sox won eight of their last ten games.
-- Tigers won four of their last five games. Rays are 12-6 in their last eighteen home games.
-- Twins won three of their last four games.
-- Mariners won eight of their last eleven games. A's are 4-0 in the game after their last four losses.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost their last six games, scoring nine runs. Marlins lost four of their last five road games.
-- Pirates lost their last seven games, allowing 45 runs.
-- Mets lost 11 of their last 15 games. Cubs lost seven of their last nine road games.
-- Braves are 4-6 in last 10 games, lost last two, allowing 16 runs.
-- Astros lost five of their last six games.
-- Giants lost their last five road games.
-- Rockies lost six of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers lost 12 of their last 21 home games.

-- Orioles lost four of their last five games.
-- Indians lost five of their last six games.
-- Blue Jays lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Angels are 5-9 in last 14 games, scoring one run in last two. Royals lost 10 of their last 14 games.
-- White Sox are 2-5 in last seven games, but won last two.

Totals
-- Six of last nine West starts went over the total.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in last dozen Wainwright starts.
-- Over is 2-0-1 in last three Parnell starts.
-- Six of last eight Lowe starts went over the total; under is 4-1-1 in last six Arroyo starts.
-- Six of last seven Rodriguez starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in San Francisco's last seven games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Hammel starts.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Kershaw starts.

-- Four of last five Tillman starts stayed under the total.
-- Last five Chamberlain starts went over the total.
-- Five of last six Sowers starts stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Meche starts.
-- 12 of last 15 White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Rowland-Smith starts stayed under total.

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