Tweet
College football is finally upon us and it cannot come sooner. I usually win in baseball just about every year, but this year I have just plain sucked. College football is one of my better sports to wager and it is not too often that I have a losing season.
I am a very small bettor, so I won’t get rich from it, but if I don’t do as well as planned I won’t get murdered either. I have always thought that the first few weeks of the season is when the lines are the weakest and of course they get stronger as the season goes on. It is also the scariest time to bet because you just don’t know how team are going to do. All you have to go by is last year record and returning starters and maybe some injuries and of course reading picks from known solid cappers on the net.
Here is what I did last year. Could have been better, could have been worse, but still a winning season, so I was happy with it. My best bets are for three units, my strong plays are for two units and my regular plays are just one unit.
2008 COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD
Best Bets (16-13)(+5.10 units)
Strong Plays (22-15)(+11.00 units)
Regular Plays (51-50)(-4.00 units)
Overall (89-78)(+12.10 units)
Here we go, lets get off to a winning start.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3rd
Oregon +4 vs Boise State (regular play)………….As much as I am looking forward to college football starting, this is going to be my only play for Thursday and it is only a one unit regular play at that. We all know that Boise is nearly unbeatable at home and that will be the case again this year, so why is this line only four points? Both teams have similar returning starters and Boise had the better record last year and they are at home, so again you have to ask why this line in only four. I think this is a game where Oregon is going to dominate the game, but not the score board. I see Oregon winning most of the game, but somehow Boise will find a way to pull it out in the end, but only by three or less points. Keep in mind this is only a regular play for me. I am disappointed that this is my only play of the opening night, but that is the way the ball bounces.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4th
Taking a pass on Friday, only one game scheduled and I am going to try and not force a pick just because it is there to play.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5th
W Michigan +12.5 vs Michigan (best bet)…………Even years when Michigan was good, they always seems to throw in a few duds early in the season where they forget to show up and barely win. Well Michigan was pretty bad last year and they have no returning QB and lost half their defense. That is not a good sign vs an extremely talented W Michigan quarterback. W Michigan coming off a solid 9-4 season, have a superb QB coming back with seven starters on offense. Big Ten in my opinion has been over rated past few year as well. Only concern in my eyes is WMU defense with hardly anybody back, so I think Michigan may score some points on them. Sure the potential is there for a blowout, but there is also a potential for an outright upset here, so I really thing 12.5 points offers a ton of value. Unless Michigan jumps out to a quick 14-0 - 21-0 lead, which I doubt, W Michigan will be in this game to the end. With a great QB they can always score late to get a cheap cover as well. I feel pretty good about this one an fully expect to hit my first best bet of the season.
Wake Forest -2 vs Baylor (best bet)………………..I guess one of the main reasons am taking Wake is Baylor rarely wins on the road. Now I know that this is a different Baylor team that we are used to seeing. They are no longer a Big 8 doormat. When they are playing at home they can hang with just about anybody, but on the road is a different story. Last year Wake dominated Baylor, so asking them to pretty much just win this game offers solid value in my eyes. This is truly a game where home field does make a huge difference. I don’t think Wake blows them out like last year, but they should win by at least seven points. Hopefully this will be my second best bet winner to start off this new season.
BYU +22.5 vs Oklahoma (strong play)……………Always take a lot of guts to go against the big name teams like the sooners, but think about it. These teams don’t always go 11-0 and especially ATS. BYU is one of those teams who almost always seems to be competitive, so getting a team like that plus over three touchdown feels pretty solid to me. The kicker for me is that this game is not on Oklahoma’s field. It is played on the Dallas Cowboys home field. Just too many points in this one. I will grab them now just in case this line drops below three touchdowns.
Virginia Tech +6.5 vs Alabama (strong play)…………..I think the guy who is in charge of the scoreboard is going to have an easy day. If I am right about that, 6.5 points is huge. Tech has most of their team back from last year. Bama has most of their defense back from last year. The key for me is Bama does not have their QB back and only 4 starters on offense. When I first saw this line I thought for sure this game was at Alabama to be giving Virginia Tech this many points, but I was wrong. It is played at the Georgia Dome. I nearly made this one my third best bet of the week. This just feels like a 13-10/17-13 type of game to me. We might even see an outright win here, but I won’t play the moneyline…greed kills in gambling.
Minnesota -6.5 vs Syracuse (regular play)…………I really like this game as well, but I only made it a one unit play because everybody loves Minnesota in this one and that scares me to death. Syracuse really sucks and they are having all kinds of problems even before the season starts. Minnesota can pretty much name this score. Only a regular play for me as this one looks like a lock and they usually lose.
Toledo +10.5 vs Purdue (regular play)……………Toledo has a history of playing well vs this conference, while Purdue has been known to lose a game or two when playing smaller conference teams. Both teams were bad last year with 3-9 and 4-8 records. Purdue has no QB and only 5 starters on offense returning. Toledo has their QB along with 16 other starters coming back. This game won’t be decided until the fourth quarter and getting ten points should come into play.
C Michigan +13.5 vs Arizona (regular play)………….Going with a gut feeling in this one. Zona always plays down to the competition. CMU has a very good Q and I think he alone will keep this game close. Home field the only big advantage for Zona and it is not worth ten points. Get the feeling we will see a shootout. Lets make it Arizona 37-27.
Still a couple of games on Sunday and two more on Monday. I will be playing both days, but I am going to wait until game day to post my picks. I want to see how Saturday goes and where the lines move.
Good Luck Everybody!!
I am a very small bettor, so I won’t get rich from it, but if I don’t do as well as planned I won’t get murdered either. I have always thought that the first few weeks of the season is when the lines are the weakest and of course they get stronger as the season goes on. It is also the scariest time to bet because you just don’t know how team are going to do. All you have to go by is last year record and returning starters and maybe some injuries and of course reading picks from known solid cappers on the net.
Here is what I did last year. Could have been better, could have been worse, but still a winning season, so I was happy with it. My best bets are for three units, my strong plays are for two units and my regular plays are just one unit.
2008 COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD
Best Bets (16-13)(+5.10 units)
Strong Plays (22-15)(+11.00 units)
Regular Plays (51-50)(-4.00 units)
Overall (89-78)(+12.10 units)
Here we go, lets get off to a winning start.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3rd
Oregon +4 vs Boise State (regular play)………….As much as I am looking forward to college football starting, this is going to be my only play for Thursday and it is only a one unit regular play at that. We all know that Boise is nearly unbeatable at home and that will be the case again this year, so why is this line only four points? Both teams have similar returning starters and Boise had the better record last year and they are at home, so again you have to ask why this line in only four. I think this is a game where Oregon is going to dominate the game, but not the score board. I see Oregon winning most of the game, but somehow Boise will find a way to pull it out in the end, but only by three or less points. Keep in mind this is only a regular play for me. I am disappointed that this is my only play of the opening night, but that is the way the ball bounces.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4th
Taking a pass on Friday, only one game scheduled and I am going to try and not force a pick just because it is there to play.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5th
W Michigan +12.5 vs Michigan (best bet)…………Even years when Michigan was good, they always seems to throw in a few duds early in the season where they forget to show up and barely win. Well Michigan was pretty bad last year and they have no returning QB and lost half their defense. That is not a good sign vs an extremely talented W Michigan quarterback. W Michigan coming off a solid 9-4 season, have a superb QB coming back with seven starters on offense. Big Ten in my opinion has been over rated past few year as well. Only concern in my eyes is WMU defense with hardly anybody back, so I think Michigan may score some points on them. Sure the potential is there for a blowout, but there is also a potential for an outright upset here, so I really thing 12.5 points offers a ton of value. Unless Michigan jumps out to a quick 14-0 - 21-0 lead, which I doubt, W Michigan will be in this game to the end. With a great QB they can always score late to get a cheap cover as well. I feel pretty good about this one an fully expect to hit my first best bet of the season.
Wake Forest -2 vs Baylor (best bet)………………..I guess one of the main reasons am taking Wake is Baylor rarely wins on the road. Now I know that this is a different Baylor team that we are used to seeing. They are no longer a Big 8 doormat. When they are playing at home they can hang with just about anybody, but on the road is a different story. Last year Wake dominated Baylor, so asking them to pretty much just win this game offers solid value in my eyes. This is truly a game where home field does make a huge difference. I don’t think Wake blows them out like last year, but they should win by at least seven points. Hopefully this will be my second best bet winner to start off this new season.
BYU +22.5 vs Oklahoma (strong play)……………Always take a lot of guts to go against the big name teams like the sooners, but think about it. These teams don’t always go 11-0 and especially ATS. BYU is one of those teams who almost always seems to be competitive, so getting a team like that plus over three touchdown feels pretty solid to me. The kicker for me is that this game is not on Oklahoma’s field. It is played on the Dallas Cowboys home field. Just too many points in this one. I will grab them now just in case this line drops below three touchdowns.
Virginia Tech +6.5 vs Alabama (strong play)…………..I think the guy who is in charge of the scoreboard is going to have an easy day. If I am right about that, 6.5 points is huge. Tech has most of their team back from last year. Bama has most of their defense back from last year. The key for me is Bama does not have their QB back and only 4 starters on offense. When I first saw this line I thought for sure this game was at Alabama to be giving Virginia Tech this many points, but I was wrong. It is played at the Georgia Dome. I nearly made this one my third best bet of the week. This just feels like a 13-10/17-13 type of game to me. We might even see an outright win here, but I won’t play the moneyline…greed kills in gambling.
Minnesota -6.5 vs Syracuse (regular play)…………I really like this game as well, but I only made it a one unit play because everybody loves Minnesota in this one and that scares me to death. Syracuse really sucks and they are having all kinds of problems even before the season starts. Minnesota can pretty much name this score. Only a regular play for me as this one looks like a lock and they usually lose.
Toledo +10.5 vs Purdue (regular play)……………Toledo has a history of playing well vs this conference, while Purdue has been known to lose a game or two when playing smaller conference teams. Both teams were bad last year with 3-9 and 4-8 records. Purdue has no QB and only 5 starters on offense returning. Toledo has their QB along with 16 other starters coming back. This game won’t be decided until the fourth quarter and getting ten points should come into play.
C Michigan +13.5 vs Arizona (regular play)………….Going with a gut feeling in this one. Zona always plays down to the competition. CMU has a very good Q and I think he alone will keep this game close. Home field the only big advantage for Zona and it is not worth ten points. Get the feeling we will see a shootout. Lets make it Arizona 37-27.
Still a couple of games on Sunday and two more on Monday. I will be playing both days, but I am going to wait until game day to post my picks. I want to see how Saturday goes and where the lines move.
Good Luck Everybody!!
Comment