I Can't Remember This Many Reasons To Play A Team and They Are A BIG DOG

[thesandman]

The Red Hot Yankees Were On A 12-1 Run the other day. To play the Yankees, even on the road, you had to lay big juice. How does -240, +210 sound playing at Oakland. Now ask yourself, how does this line sound after the Yankees have lost two in a row, including being shut out at Oakland.

Now ask yourself, how does this big line sound to play a team that is hitting .221 with three runs and four extra-base hits in their two losses after averaging 6.2 runs and batting .299 with 28 home runs in the previous 13 games. You see it all the time. Team go from hot to cold or cold to hot without any warning and can stay that way for awhile. You might think the Yankees will be OK tonight because they have their best starter, CC Sabathia (13-7, 3.64 ERA) going tonight against the last place A's.

Looks like the big line is justified, but now look a little further. CC did win his last three starts while giving up only one run and five hits in his last two. He allowed one run and three hits in eight innings of an 11-1 victory over the Mariners on Thursday, striking out a season-high 10. BUT, look what he says about pitching at Oakland.

“I must have done something bad here as a kid because I have some bad karma here,” Sabathia said Monday. Look at this. He is just 1-4 with a 7.12 ERA at Oakland and he has lost his last four starts at the Oakland Coliseum, near where he grew up. He has a 10.07 ERA during that stretch and is winless in his last five starts there.

I'm taking the PLUS 2.10 but if you think the Yankees will still beat the A"s, my advice to you is pass the game. No one can make money betting -250 favorites, especially ones whose recent stats and starting pitcher look like a team that should be a big DOG, not a big favorite.

I wish I would have posted this sooner because in addition to playing the A's, I also played this small two team parley that has a good chance of hitting at big 8-1 odds. Timmy Lincecum has had a couple of just so so starts and can be beat. Also, I'm hoping any long rain delay and he dosen't come back.


Parlay (2 Teams) 08/18/09 19:05 ET
bet 150.00 to win 1,268.25 Result: Pending
Giants(SanFrancisco) Lincecum
Reds(Cincinnati) Bailey 08/18/09(19:10 ET)

Reds(Cincinnati) +205

Yankees(NewYork) Sabathia
Athletics(Oakland) Mazzaro

08/18/09(22:05 ET)
Athletics(Oakland) +210



Sorry this so long but I really think it's worth knowing for anyone who is thinking of playing this game. Also, I can't make the parley I played look like it should. It's a two team Cinc to Oakland parley, risking 150 to win 1268.

Good Luck to anyone who likes the A's tonight.

I spent so much time putting this together that I didn't have time to proof read it. Hopefully, you can understand my thinking.

[bryce]

I like it Sandman--I remember well Sabathia doing shitty when he was with Cleveland home or away vs. the A's. It is worth a shot--and a good shot at that!

[ELJUGO]

150 to win 1.2k on a 2 team dog parlay... why the hell not, like the logic of the 2 teams you took.

If I wasn't a Giants fan I'd definitely say I hope you hit it but even if you don't this is the type of "gamble" that I like.

[ELJUGO]

I woulda switched the cards with the A's on the late night play though. I think CC pitches well back home in Northern California.

[thesandman]

ELJUGO. You were right about CC tonight, which means I was wrong about him. Not to make excuses but the A's manager is dumber than me. Castilla is the worst reliever the A's have, an ERA almost six and you could see right away, he had no control over where his pitches went. Two bases loaded walks and not until then did they have someone else warming up but they never brought someone else in that inning.

It was painful to watch. It's only the 6th inning and the A's have 4 errors so far. The A's look like what I thought the Yankees would look like tonight. I really thought this was going to be a big payout.