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NFL Trends and Indexes - Preseason Week 1 (8/9 – 8/17)

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  • #16
    NFL
    Preseason



    Monday, August 16

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    What bettors need to know: Monday's preseason action
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    Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3, 31.5)

    Matchup stats and trends

    Starter and injury report

    The Jaguars take their first steps towards erasing the memories of a disappointing 2008 campaign on Monday. With some youthful additions to the offensive line and a veteran star on board at wide receiver, Jacksonville is hoping to resemble the squad that defeated the Steelers at Pittsburgh in the 2007 playoffs.

    The Jags tabbed a pair of offensive linemen with their initial two picks in April's draft. Unfortunately, first-rounder Eugene Monroe was just inked to a deal earlier this week. He has some catching up to do and is unlikely to play against the Dolphins. Second-rounder Eben Britton of Arizona is already making a push to win the starting right tackle spot.

    For the first time since the days of Keenan McCardell and Jimmy Smith, Jacksonville has an elite wide receiver to throw the ball to. Torry Holt's 817 receptions lead the NFL in this decade but there are some questions about how much the 33-year-old has left in the tank.

    Head coach Jack Del Rio has indicated that starting QB David Garrard will play the entire first quarter and possibly some of the second against Miami. Garrard will be followed in the contest by veteran Todd Bauman and former Tulsa standout Paul Smith.

    The Dolphins will try to quiet skeptics who suggest that Miami will not be able to repeat its success from a year ago. The Fish led the NFL in turnover ratio (+17) in 2009 which helped the club pull out some close calls. In their 9-1 run to end the regular season, the Dolphins recorded only one double-digit victory.

    The home fans will get their first look at rookie QB Pat White on Monday. Head coach Tony Sparano said that White and No. 2 quarterback Chad Henne will get significant playing time against the Jags after starter Chad Pennington exits the game.

    Line Movement

    The Dolphins opened as a 3-point favorite with a total of 32. The total is now down to 31.5.

    Trends

    Del Rio is 17-7 (15-9 against the spread) in the preseason with a 3-3 ATS mark in preseason openers. Sparano went 3-1 (3-1 ATS) in the 2008 preseason but lost in the exhibition opener.

    Weather

    The forecast calls for a high of 91 degrees with a 30 percent chance of rain in Miami.



    Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (-3, 32.5)

    Matchup stats and trends

    Starter and injury report

    These two clubs were expected to square off at Giants Stadium in the 2008 NFC Championship game, but the top two seeds in the conference were humbled at home in the Divisional round.

    Carolina is basically returning the same squad that captured the NFC South. The defense took a hit up front with defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu suffering a season-ending Achilles injury. On offense, WR Steve Smith and RB Jonathan Stewart are questionable for Monday night's matchup with some minor injuries.

    Despite a dreadful effort in last year's post-season exit to the Cardinals, veteran Jake Delhomme is the clear No.1 under center. The backup spot is open for competition between journeyman Josh McCown and youngster Matt Moore. Rookie Hunter Cantwell out of Louisville could also get some late game snaps at the QB spot against New York.

    The Giants have a mix of good and bad news entering their preseason opener. The good revolves around the return of star defensive end Osi Umenyiora to the fold after missing all of last season with due to injury. The bad involves questions about New York's ability to find a suitable replacement for wideout Plaxico Burress.

    New York hopes that first round draft pick Hakeem Nicks can help to fill some of the void at wide receiver this season.

    For Monday's exhibition opener, head coach Tom Coughlin has said that this starters will get about 12-15 snaps against Carolina. Rookie signal-callers Andre Woodson and Rhett Bomar are also will play following the exits of Eli Manning and David Carr.

    The secondary is a little banged up for New York. Cornerbacks Corey Webster and Aaron Ross will be held out of the game due to some minor injuries.

    Line Movement

    The Giants opened as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 33.5. The total has dropped a point down to 32.5.

    Trends

    John Fox is 18-10 (15-12-1 ATS) in the preseason with a 5-2 ATS record in his August openers. As head coach of the Giants, Coughlin is 11-9 (11-7-2 ATS) in preseason action with a 1-3-1 ATS mark in exhibition debuts.

    Weather

    The forecast calls for a high of 89 degrees in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

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    • #17
      NFL
      Preseason


      Monday, August 17


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      Tips and Trends
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      Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins [7:30 PM ET]

      Jaguars: It’s hard to believe that Jacksonville not only made the playoffs two years ago, but knocked off the Steelers on the road in the post-season. The Jaguars are out to erase last season’s 5-11 record. It won’t happen unless their revamped offensive line comes together, which may be difficult in the first preseason game. Starting quarterback David Garrard could play into the second quarter. He’s had an inconsistent training camp. Veteran Todd Bouman and former Tulsa star Paul Smith are vying for the backup quarterback spot. They’re expected to split the rest of the play-calling once Garrard departs. The game could mark the Jacksonville debut of 33-year-old former Rams star Torry Holt. There’s a 30 percent chance of rain in South Florida with temperatures reaching the low 90’s. The Jaguars’ Jack Del Rio has a strong preseason record going 17-7 straight-up and 15-9 against the spread.

      The Jaguars have covered 8 of the last nine times they’ve been a ‘dog in preseason.

      Key Injuries - Wide receiver Mike Walker (hamstring) doubtful.

      PROJECTED SCORE: 14

      Dolphins (-3, O/U 31.5): The Dolphins went from 1-15 to 11-5 last season. They gave a possible indication of their improvement by winning and covering their last three preseason games. The Dolphins have become a hard-nosed, tough, well-coached squad with respectable depth thanks to the brain trust of Bill Parcells and coach Tony Sparano. Chad Pennington played so well in 2008 that he finished second to Peyton Manning in the MVP balloting. Pennington probably only will make a token appearance in this matchup. That means plenty of Chad Henne, the Dolphins’ second-round pick in 2008, and rookie Pat White. Henne needs to show he’s Miami’s quarterback of the future. The versatile White is well-suited to run plays when the Dolphins go into their Wildcat Offense, a widely-copied gimmick formation Miami unleashed last year. The Dolphins probably don’t want to show too much since they meet the Jaguars during the regular season.

      The Dolphins are 6-1-1 to the under the last two years in preseason.

      Key Injuries - None

      PROJECTED SCORE: 17



      Carolina Panthers at New York Giants [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]

      Panthers: These two teams had a great battle during the regular season last year when the Giants beat the Panthers in overtime, 34-28. Don’t expect a similar score. Oddsmaker put up an opening total of 33 ½, which has gone down to 32 ½. Neither starting quarterback, Jake Delhomme nor Eli Manning, is expected to see much action in their preseason opener. Josh McCown and Matt Moore are competing for Carolina’s second-string quarterback spot. They won’t have injured star wide receiver Steve Smith to target. Smith suffered a shoulder injury in practice a week ago and may miss the preseason. They’ll be facing a deep Giants defensive line that welcomes back star pass rusher Osi Umenyiora. New Giants defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan may not want to show much with the team’s once again meeting in the regular season. The Panthers are 5-2 against the spread in preseason openers under John Fox.

      The Panthers are 18-10 straight-up and 15-12-1 against the spread under John Fox.

      Key Injuries - Wide receiver Steve Smith (shoulder) and defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu (Achilles’ tendon) are out.

      PROJECTED SCORE: 16

      Giants (-3, O/U 32.5): Eli Manning will play two series at most. He’ll be replaced by veteran David Carr. Former Kentucky standout Andre Woodson will play in the second half. Ex-Oklahoma quarterback Rhett Bomar could see late action. Giants coach Tom Coughlin needs to work on his team’s passing attack, so the Giants could be frequently going to the air. The Giants need to find reliable wideouts to take the place of Plaxico Burress. Their quarterbacks will look to feature Domenik Hixon and Sinorice Moss along with Mario Manningham and possibly first-round draft pick Hakeem Nicks. The Giants probably will be missing their own Steve Smith, who is doubtful with a knee injury. Coughlin knows he needs to find a No. 1 wide receiver. New York also lost Andre Brown for the season with an Achilles’ injury. Brown was challenging Ahmad Bradshaw for the back-up running back spot behind Brandon Jacobs.

      The Giants are 1-3-1 against the spread in preseason openers under Tom Coughlin.

      Key Injuries - Cornerbacks Corey Webster (hip) and Aaron Ross (leg) are doubtful along with wide receiver
      Steve Smith (knee).

      PROJECTED SCORE: 19 (OVER - Total of the Day)


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