Announcement

**pm530** · 08-06-2009, 05:08 AM

NFL
Preseason
Long Sheet

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Sunday, August 9
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BUFFALO (2 - 2) vs. TENNESSEE (3 - 1) - 8/9/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Thursday, August 13
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WASHINGTON (3 - 2) at BALTIMORE (1 - 3) - 8/13/2009, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (0 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) - 8/13/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against AFC East division opponents since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) - 8/13/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (1 - 3) - 8/13/2009, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, August 14
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ST LOUIS (2 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 1) - 8/14/2009, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (1 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 4) - 8/14/2009, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (2 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) - 8/14/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against NFC South division opponents since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in August games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home lined games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in dome games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 8/14/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1993.
DENVER is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, August 15
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ATLANTA (2 - 2) at DETROIT (4 - 0) - 8/15/2009, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (1 - 3) at BUFFALO (2 - 2) - 8/15/2009, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (3 - 1) at TENNESSEE (3 - 1) - 8/15/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (2 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 2) - 8/15/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 4) at GREEN BAY (1 - 3) - 8/15/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (3 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 1) - 8/15/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, August 17
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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 1) at MIAMI (3 - 1) - 8/17/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (2 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 2) - 8/17/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**pm530** · 08-06-2009, 05:10 AM

NFL
Preseason
Short Sheet

Sunday, 8/9/2009

BUFFALO vs. TENNESSEE, 8:00 PM ET Hall of Fame Game - Canton, OH
BUFFALO: 5-0 ATS as an underdog
TENNESSEE: 5-0 Over if total is 35 or less

Thursday, 8/13/2009

WASHINGTON at BALTIMORE, 7:30 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 1-8 ATS on Thursday
BALTIMORE: 10-2 Under as a home favorite of 3pts or less

NEW ENGLAND at PHILADELPHIA, 7:30 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 15-3 Under 1st 2 weeks of preseason
PHILADELPHIA: 2-10 ATS at home vs. AFC East

ARIZONA at PITTSBURGH, 8:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 5-1 Over if the line is +3 to -3
PITTSBURGH: 2-5 ATS as a favorite

DALLAS at OAKLAND, 10:00 PM ET
DALLAS: 5-19 ATS 1st 2 weeks of preseason
OAKLAND: 12-5 ATS 1st 2 weeks of preseason

Friday, 8/14/2009

ST LOUIS at NY JETS, 7:00 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 7-14 ATS as a road dog of 7 points or less
NY JETS: 5-1 Over if the total is between 32.5 and 35

MINNESOTA at INDIANAPOLIS, 7:30 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 3-0 ATS vs. AFC
INDIANAPOLIS: 4-8 ATS on Fridays

CINCINNATI at NEW ORLEANS, 8:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 0-7 ATS vs. NFC South
NEW ORLEANS: 8-21 ATS in home games

DENVER at SAN FRANCISCO, 10:00 PM ET
DENVER: 20-8 ATS vs. NFC West
SAN FRANCISCO: 10-2 Over as a home favorite of 3pts or less

Saturday, 8/15/2009

ATLANTA at DETROIT, 4:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 5-1 ATS as an underdog
DETROIT: 11-4 Under if the total is between 35.5 and 38

CHICAGO at BUFFALO, 7:00 PM ET
CHICAGO: n/a
BUFFALO: n/a

TAMPA BAY at TENNESSEE, 8:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: n/a
TENNESSEE: n/a

HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY, 8:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 7-1 Over in August
KANSAS CITY: 1-7 ATS in preseason

CLEVELAND at GREEN BAY, 8:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 1-4 ATS in non-conf games
GREEN BAY: 24-11 Over as favorite

SEATTLE at SAN DIEGO, 10:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 7-1 ATS in all preseason games
SAN DIEGO: 34-19 Over vs. NFC

Monday, 8/17/2009

JACKSONVILLE at MIAMI, 7:30 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 14-4 ATS Away on grass
MIAMI: 6-1 Under in August

CAROLINA at NY GIANTS, 8:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 13-4 ATS vs. conference
NY GIANTS: 3-10 ATS if the total is between 32.5 and 35

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**pm530** · 08-06-2009, 07:46 PM

NFL
Preseason
Notes

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Getting a game plan for betting the NFL preseason
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One-hundred and eighty-eight days. That’s much time will have passed since Super Bowl XLIII when the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans take the field on Sunday in the Hall of Fame game.

While fans tolerate the preseason because of the football drought, sharp bettors cherish it.

Here are few ways to be successful betting the exhibition calendar:

New sheriff in town

Since new head coaches are stepping into losing situations, there is a view that these new leaders will try to establish a winning mentality right out of the gate.

First year coaches went 9-8 against the spread last season and 15-14 in 2007. Obviously the stats aren’t overwhelming but in most cases, new sideline bosses like to win their first game, even if it’s an exhibition.

The chaos theory

Clubs with starting quarterback battles are perceived by many to have some value in the preseason. The idea is that these squads will be more aggressive with their offense to give them the best opportunity to evaluate who will start at the most important position on the field.

The seven squads that had some starting quarterback questions heading into the 2008 preseason went 12-16 ATS.

Numbing numbers

Even trends over multiple seasons can be a little shaky. In 2006-07, unders went 21-9-3 in the first full week of the pre-season (Hall of Fame games included). Last year, the majority of the games went over the total with 10 of the 17 contests yielding 35 or more total points.

The game plan

The preseason is about evaluating personnel while avoiding injuries. The regular season is about winning. So, handicappers must adjust accordingly.

During the regular season, coaches say little in their encounters with the print and broadcast media. They give generic answers about the upcoming game and will avoid giving their foes any bulletin board material to use.

Usually, the status of injured players is the most important topic of these media sessions. However, the coaches rarely add much to the widely available injury reports that are distributed by the league. In the regular season, the best available players will play.

This is not the case in the preseason.

The comments of coaches this time are usually more helpful to handicappers than the predictable quotes from the regular season. Before each preseason game, the head coach will usually inform the media of how much the first, second and third string units will play in the upcoming contest.

There are also some other subtle concepts to consider that are less obvious than new coaches or starting quarterback battles. There are teams that have a returning head coach but are breaking in a new coordinator on offense or defense.

What about teams that have a battle going for the backup quarterback spot? With the established starting QB exiting by halftime in three of the four pre-season games, the teams looking to fill the important backup spot are likely to be more aggressive in the passing game to find a reliable No. 2 signal-caller.

The preseason is bizarro world to the regular season. Last year’s Detroit Lions are the perfect example. They went 4-0 in August and became the first team to ever go 0-16 in the regular season.

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**pm530** · 08-08-2009, 02:42 AM

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Ask the oddsmaker: Bookie's perspective of NFL preseason
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Oddsmaker Michael Perry returns to answer all your bettting related queries. This week, Michael tackles preseason football and its abnormalities.

Mark from Cleveland: Preseason football isn’t the real deal, but it is football. How much action do you get on these games compared to the MLB games going on at the same time?

Michael Perry: When there is only a single NFL preseason game on national TV, as is the case this Sunday, then the chances are pretty good that the football game will be the most heavily bet game of the night. If a particular day has a handful of preseason games and you are comparing this to a MLB game on the same day, the baseball game will see more volume but not by much.

Danny from Oklahoma City: It seems the majority of preseason totals are in the low 30s. Why are the numbers so much lower than regular season games?

Michael Perry: Because in the preseason, NFL teams do not want to display their offensive repertoire to anyone. Plus, you don't see much of the first-string players in these games. No coach wants to see his star player go down in an exhibition.

Bob from Mobile: Do you pay close attention to how long the first-string players stay on the field? Is this something sharp bettors try to exploit?

Michael Perry: Yes, we try and get as much information as possible in an effort to try and stay one step ahead of the competition. And yes, bettors try and exploit first-string NFL preseason situations all the time. Every team differs on exactly how long the starters stay on the field.

Sandy from Hartford: Will you ever adjust a team’s regular season win total or futures odds after a bad preseason, or does that only happen if a major player is hurt in one of these games?

Michael Perry: No, we will not adjust any team’s regular season win total because how it did in the preseason, regardless of how good or bad it played. You have to remember that QBs leading teams during the preseason are pretty much second, third and fourth-stringers.

Worst loss of the week:

Denny Hamlin (+1000) winning the Pocono 500. There was a sizable contingent who were rooting for Hamlin. Denny’s grandmother had recently passed away.

Best win of the week:

Buick Open futures. We made out quite well with Tiger Woods taking the trophy with the shortest odds to win (+150).

Toughest line to set of the week:

Totals for the Red Sox/Yankee games. Balls have been flying out of the park at new Yankee Stadium like crazy. Will managers Terry Francona and Joe Girardi be more liberal with pitching changes than usual considering the magnitude of this series?

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**pm530** · 08-08-2009, 10:33 PM

NFL
Preseason

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Game of the day: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
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Sunday, August 9

Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans (-3, 31)

Who's in, who's out

As is customary of the first preseason game, the starters are expected to play no more than two series for both teams minus a couple of exceptions.

Bills head coach Dick Jauron said this week that all four quarterbacks on the roster are expected to play and that particular focus will be placed on the team’s revamped offensive line.

All five of the Bills’ projected starting O-linemen will be playing different positions this season, mostly as a result of the loss of Pro Bowl tackle Jason Peters in the offseason. That includes first and second round picks Eric Wood and Andy Levitre.

Jauron said Wood and Levitre will play extensively Sunday, while one starter, tackle Brad Butler, will not dress.

Running back Marshawn Lynch, who has suspended for the first three games of the regular season because of off-the-field conduct, will not play. Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes are expected to pick up the slack.

Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher called it “an honor” to be playing in the Hall of Fame Game and added “we’ll clearly be competitive throughout the game.”

Fisher has played it close to the vest this week with regard to playing time. Don’t forget that the Titans didn’t open their training camp until July 31 while Buffalo reported a full week earlier.

Kerry Collins is expected to start at quarterback and speculation out of Tennessee is that backup Vince Young will start the second half and play the entire third quarter, though it was not confirmed by Fisher.

Wide receiver Kenny Britt, the Titans’ first-round pick out of Rutgers, has a sore hamstring and will not play.

The Titans are also banged up on the offensive and defensive fronts. Defensive tackles Spencer Johnson and John McCargo, who are competing to replace All-Pro Albert Haynesworth, both had to leave practice Friday and it will be a game-time decision.

Coming and Going

The hype this week has surrounded the Buffalo debut of wide receiver Terrell Owens. The Pro Bowler adds to an already solid cast of receivers in Buffalo that features Lee Evans, Roscoe Parish and Josh Reed. All three are expected to play a significant role in the Bills’ newly-installed no-huddle offense.

The Titans’ most significant offseason acquisition was receiver Nate Washington from the Steelers. Washington caught 40 balls for 631 yards and three touchdowns as Pittsburgh’s primary slot receiver last season. Tennessee hopes he can provide a much-needed downfield threat.

Line Movement

The Titans opened as 3-point favorites with the total set around 31, but that’s changed slightly at some books. Action on the Bills and the over has resulted in some shops pushing the line to Tennessee -2.5 with the over/under number a half point higher at 31.5.

Trends

The Titans are 27-25 against the spread in the preseason under Fisher’s guidance. The over is 28-23-1 in August games coached by Fisher. Jauron, entering his fourth season as the Bills’ head man, is 7-5 ATS in the preseason. The over has gone just 4-8 during that time.
In the last 10 Hall of Fame games the over/under is 5-5.

Weather

The forecast calls for a high of 91 degrees in Canton with gusty winds.

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**Udog** · 08-09-2009, 11:06 AM

Sunday, August 9

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Tips and Trends
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Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans [NBC | 8:00 PM ET]

Bills: Buffalo should have plenty of support at neutral site Canton, Ohio for its Hall of Fame matchup. The Bills’ club owner, Ralph Wilson, and former star Buffalo pass rusher Bruce Smith are two of this year’s inductees into the Hall. The Bills have had five more practice days than the Titans. Terrell Owens is the big camp story. But Owens and Lee Evans, the Bills’ other star wide receiver, are not expected to play more than four or five plays. One of the keys for the Bills is their offensive line, which is being totally revamped this season. So it wouldn’t be surprising if Eric Wood, Andy Levitre, Langston Walker and Geoff Hangartner all saw extended playing time as the Bills try to develop cohesiveness in their refurbished offensive line. The Bills are 3-0 against the spread during their first preseason game under Dick Jauron.

The Bills have covered during their first preseason game each of the past six years.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 14

Titans (-2.5 O/U 31): The Titans should have an edge in rushing with Chris Johnson and LenDale White running behind a strong offensive line and at backup quarterback with Vince Young. Titans coach Jeff Fisher said his quarterback rotation is having starter Kerry Collins play a few series followed by Young, who should play into the third quarter. Then veteran Patrick Ramsey will take over with Alex Mortensen possibly getting mop up duty at the end. Fisher was quoted as saying, “We are going to … approach this to showcase our good players. We want to play them as long as possible. We want to play this game to win this game.” The Titans opened camp late and don’t need to impress their fan base having reached the playoffs last season. The Titans won’t have wide receiver Kenny Britt, their first-round pick. He’s nursing a hamstring injury.

The Titans are 20-26-1 against the spread when favored in preseason.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 16 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 08-12-2009, 06:28 PM

Thursday, August 13

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Thursday's NFL preseason betting previews
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Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 31.5)

Who's in, who's out

Prized free agent defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth will not make his Redskins debut in the preseason opener. Star running back Clinton Portis will also be held out against the Ravens.

While Jason Campbell is locked in as the starting QB, head coach Jim Zorn is evaluating his options for the backup spot. Veteran Todd Collins, second-year signal-caller Colt Brennan and rookie Chase Daniel will get most of the snaps Thursday.

For the Ravens, standout linebacker Terrell Suggs and No. 2 wide receiver Mark Clayton will miss the game due to injuries. Top receiver Derek Mason and No.3 wideout Demeterius Williams are also banged up but could play.

Baltimore also has some open competition for its backup quarterback spot behind starter Joe Flacco. Troy Smith will try to hold off former Dolphins quarterback John Beck for the No. 2 role.

In a battle to replace longtime kicker Matt Stover, Steven Hauschka will handle the kicking duties in the first half against the Redskins while Florida State rookie Graham Gano will take over as the kicker in the second half.

Line movement

The Ravens opened as 3-point favorites with the total set around 31. These numbers have basically held up although there are a few books that have moved the total up to 31.5.

Trends

Zorn went 3-2 (2-3 ATS) in the preseason a year ago while covering in his debut contest at the Hall of Fame Game against the Colts. John Harbaugh won and covered in his first preseason contest in 2008 before his squad dropped their final three exhibition contests.

Weather

The forecast calls for a high of 82 degrees with a 30 percent chance of rain in Baltimore.

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 33)

Who's in, who's out

There will be plenty of eyes on this contest with the expected return of Tom Brady. In a gathering with reporters on Tuesday, Brady provided a hint that the Patriots won't be going through the motions Thursday.

"It’s been a different training camp this year,’’ said Brady. "I don’t know what he’s (head coach Bill Belichick) got in store. From his tone and the message he’s been sending to the team, it doesn’t sound like it’s going to be a (standard) first preseason game for us. I don’t think it’s like a guest appearance or anything like that. I think we’re going out there to play.’’

Reserve quarterbacks Kevin O'Connell, Andrew Walter, and Brain Hoyer will be closely evaluated in the preseason with the departure of Matt Cassel. Belichick is taking over the offensive play calling duties this year after the loss of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

The Eagles have been hard hit by injuries heading into their preseason debut. Last week, starting linebacker Stewart Bradley was lost for the year with an ACL knee injury. Other recent camp casualties have included QB Kevin Kolb, DE Trent Cole and starting OG Todd Herreamns. All three will miss Thursday's game but should be ready to go by the start of the regular season.

Head coach Andy Reid has indicated that his starters will play until about midway through the second quarter. With Kolb out, A. J. Feely will see most of the action at reserve quarterback although just re-signed rookie Adam DiMichele could play in the fourth quarter. Standout runner Brian Westbrook is unlikely to play much in the preseason after some offseason surgeries.

Line movement

The Eagles opened as 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 35. Philadelphia has moved up to a field goal favorite with the total down to 33.

Trends

Belichick is 20-17 (19-15-3 ATS) in the preseason with the Patriots. He went 5-0-2 ATS in his first seven preseason openers but has dropped the last two. The last time New England entered a preseason after missing the playoffs was in 2003. In that year, the Pats went a perfect 4-0 (4-0 ATS) and went on to capture the Super Bowl title. Reid is 14-26 (19-21 ATS) in his preseason career in Philadelphia. The Eagles are 0-5 (0-5 ATS) in their last five preseason openers.

Weather

The forecast calls for a high of 79 degrees in with a 30 percent chance of showers in Philadelphia.

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 33.5)

Who's in, who's out

The Cardinals are fairly healthy heading into their preseason opener and Super Bowl rematch. The only notable player who could miss Thursday's contest is first-round draft choice Beanie Wells (ankle sprain).

Like Belichick, Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt is taking over his club's play calling duties after losing his coordinator (Todd Haley) to a head coaching job.

Despite a renewed offseason that included some intense MMA physical training, former top draft pick Matt Leinart is in a real battle to hold off Brian St. Pierre for the backup QB spot behind starter Kurt Warner. Former Pitt Panthers signal-caller Tyler Palko is also trying to land a place on the roster for the Cardinals.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has indicated that his starters will only play "a couple of series" against the Cardinals. Pittsburgh has also been able to avoid getting too banged up so far.

After Ben Roethlisberger makes his cameo appearance against Arizona, veteran Charlie Batch will vie for quarterback snaps along with youngsters Dennis Dixon and Mike Reilly.

Line Movement

The Steelers opened as 3-point favorites with the total set around 34. The total has made a slight drop down to 33.5.

Trends

Whisenhunt is 2-6 (3-5 ATS) in his preseason career and has failed to cover in his prior two preseason openers. Tomlin is 7-2 (4-5 ATS) in the preseason with the Steelers with a pair of covers in his preseason openers.

Weather

The forecast calls for a high of 82 degrees with a 20 percent chance of rain in Pittsburgh.

Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders (-2, 34.5)

Who's in, who's out

Dallas is thin in its defensive secondary heading into their preseason debut. Cornerbacks Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins and Michael Hawkins will not play against the Raiders.

With the addition of veteran Jon Kitna to serve as the backup quarterback to starter Tony Romo, the matchup against the Raiders will enable the Cowboys to get a good look at rookie-signal callers Rudy Carpenter and Stephen McGee.

Tom Cable is set to make his preseason debut after serving as the Raiders interim head coach to conclude the 2008 campaign.

Top draft pick Darrius Heyward-Bey could be on the sidelines Thursday. The wide receiver is battling a toe injury. A calf strain could keep backup QB Jeff Garcia out of the contest as well.

Cable has stated that Charlie Frye and Bruce Gradkowski will see significant action against the Cowboys in their battle for the No.3 quarterback position.

Line Movement

Dallas opened in the rare position as a 1.5-point preseason road favorite with a total of 34.5. While the total has held, the Cowboys are now the underdog.

Trends

Phillips is 4-4 (3-5 ATS) in the preseason with the Cowboys. Dallas hasn't won a road preseason game since 2006.

Weather

The forecast calls for a high of 80 degrees with winds at 10 to 20 mph in Oakland.

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**pm530** · 08-13-2009, 11:12 AM

NFL

Thursday, August 13

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Tips and Trends
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Washington Redskins at Baltimore Raves [7:30 PM ET]

Redskins: The Redskins have one of the more competitive backup quarterback situations in the league and all four of their signal-callers could see action against Baltimore. Starter Jason Campbell isn’t expected to play much. Third-stringer Colt Brennan is trying to unseat 37-year-old Todd Collins as the No. 2 quarterback. Brennan had a stellar preseason last year, completing 36-of-53 passes for 411 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Former Missouri star Chase Daniel is a long shot to make Washington’s final roster, but could see time, too. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, Washington’s two second-year wide receivers, should be heavily involved. Santana Moss, the team’s No. 1 wideout, may sit out or play sparingly. Star running back Clinton Portis is healthy, but is not expected to play. Guard Randy Thomas isn’t expected to play either. Thomas is still recovering from off-season knee and vertebrae surgery.

The Redskins are 11-2-1 to the under in their last 14 games.

Key Injuries - Randy Thomas (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 14 (Side of the Day)

Ravens (-2.5, O/U 31.5): Ravens starting quarterback Joe Flacco is slated to play at least the entire first quarterback. Flacco has not looking good during training camp, throwing a high number of interceptions, missing open receivers and struggling to read defenses. The Ravens averaged just 175.5 yards passing last season, fifth-lowest in the NFL. Troy Smith will quarterback during the second and third quarters to be followed by John Beck. The Ravens could be without their three top three wide receivers. Mark Clayton is out with a hamstring injury. Derrick Mason dislocated a finger on Tuesday and Demetrius Williams has a hamstring injury. Tight end Todd Heap is questionable with a sore back. That means Baltimore quarterbacks will be throwing to Justin Harper, Marcus Smith and Kelley Washington. Willis McGahee is having an impressive camp, but Ray Rice is expected to get the start at running back.

Baltimore averaged 12.5 points in their four preseason games last year.

Key Injuries - Terrell Suggs (heel), Mark Clayton (hamstring) and guard Marshal Yanda (knee) are not expected to play.

PROJECTED SCORE: 16

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]

Cardinals: The two Super Bowl teams get together in a far more meaningless matchup with the Cardinals looking to avenge a 27-23 Super Bowl loss in which they led until the final 35 seconds. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald should get a nice reception having starred in college for the Pitt Panthers. Arizona is fairly healthy heading into the matchup. First-round draft pick running back Beanie Wells is about the only notable not expected to play. Wells has an ankle sprain. It’s not a given that former No. 1 pick Matt Leinart is going to be second-string behind 38-year-old Kurt Warner. Leinart is being challenged by Brian St. Pierre, a favorite of Ken Whisenhunt from when he coached the Steelers. Tyler Palko, a former Pitt Panther, also could see action at quarterback. The Cardinals are 0-2 against the spread under Whisenhunt in their preseason openers.

The Cardinals have lost 6 of 8 preseason games under Whisenhunt.

Key Injuries - Beanie Wells (ankle) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 14

Steelers (-3, O/U 33): Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has indicated that his starters, including Ben Roethlisberger, will play very little. Veteran Charlie Batch, who has looked good in camp, probably will see the most snaps. Batch will be followed in the quarterback rotation by Dennis Dixon and Mike Reily. The only player Tomlin has ruled out is starting guard Darnell Stapleton, who is recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery. Center Justin Hartwig, though, probably isn’t going to play either because of a toe injury. Several key Steelers are nicked up. Safety Troy Polamalu (hamstring) and running backs Willie Parker (back spasms) and Mewelde Moore (hamstring) are nursing injuries. That could mean a lot of carries for last year’s No. 1 pick, Rashard Mendenhall. He missed most of last season after sustaining a broken shoulder. The forecast calls for a high of 82 with a 20 percent chance of rain.

The Steelers are 7-2 straight-up, but 4-5 against the spread in preseason under Mike Tomlin.

Key Injuries - Guard Darnell Stapleton (knee) is out.
Center Justin Hartwig (toe) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

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**pm530** · 08-13-2009, 12:52 PM

NFL
Preseason

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stats / Projected Plays
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Overall, road teams own a 72-60-9 ATS (54.5%) record in the preseason’s first full week since 2000.

Projected plays for ’09 – Washington, New England, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina.

2. Road Underdogs of 4-points or more are 9-10 SU but 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in the first full week of the preseason since ’00.

Projected plays for ’09 – St. Louis

3. Over the last nine years, Road Underdogs of +1 to +3.5 points are 40-55 SU but 50-38-7 ATS (56.8%) in the upcoming week of the preseason.

Projected plays for ’09 - Washington, New England, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle, Jacksonville, Miami, Carolina.

4. Home Underdogs are 13-11 SU & 14-8-2 ATS (63.6%) in the preseason’s official Week 1 since 2000.

Projected plays for ’09 - None

5. When the line has moved toward the home team, the opposing road team owns a 25-16-1 ATS mark in the first week of the preseason since ’00.

Projected plays for ’09 – Dallas, New England, St. Louis, Chicago, Atlanta.

6. When the line has moved 2-points or more, the “betting public” owns a record of just 16-19 ATS (45.7%) in the first full week of the preseason since ’00. In other words, go against the money.

Projected plays for ’09 – Dallas, Atlanta.

7. Concerning totals, since 2000, in the first full week of the NFL’s exhibition season, UNDER’s own an edge of 81-59 (57.9%).

Projected plays for ’09 – ALL GAMES UNDER

8. In past games of the opening week of the preseason with totals set at 33.5 or less, the UNDER owns a record of 22-10 (68.8%).

Projected plays for ’09 – Play UNDER in Washington-Baltimore, St. Louis-NY Jets, Chicago-Buffalo, Jacksonville-Miami, and Carolina-NY Giants

9. In games with a total movement either way in the first full week of the preseason since ’00, the UNDER is 65-45 for 59.0%.

Projected plays for ’09 – Play UNDER in all games but Houston-Kansas City as of Wednesday afternoon.

10. Over the last nine years, when the total has moved 2-points or more prior to game time of any opening week preseason game, the UNDER is 13-10 (56.5%).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Kaptain** · 08-13-2009, 06:29 PM

LOOKING FOR AND EDGE?

Here are five trends for opening week of the NFL since 2000

1. Overall, road teams own a 72-60-9 ATS (54.5%) record in the preseason’s
first full week since 2000.

2. Road Underdogs of 4-points or more are 9-10 SU but 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in the f
irst full week of the preseason since ’00.

3. Over the last nine years, Road Underdogs of +1 to +3.5 points are 40-55 SU
but 50-38-7 ATS (56.8%) in the upcoming week of the preseason.

4. Home Underdogs are 13-11 SU & 14-8-2 ATS (63.6%) in the preseason’s
official Week 1 since 2000.

5. When the line has moved toward the home team, the opposing road team
owns a 25-16-1 ATS mark in the first week of the preseason since ’00

**Udog** · 08-13-2009, 09:41 PM

NFL
Dunkel

THURSDAY, AUGUST 13

Game 257-258: Dallas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 117.832; Oakland 122.037
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4; 30
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 34
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+1); Under

FRIDAY, AUGUST 14

Game 259-260: St. Louis at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 118.247; NY Jets 125.099
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 7; 35
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3 1/2; 34
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-3 1/2); Over

Game 261-262: Minnesota at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 120.160; Indianapolis 114.979
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 6; 36
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2); Over

Game 263-264: Cincinnati at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 117.652; New Orleans 124.844
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7; 40
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over

Game 265-266: Denver at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.740; San Francisco 124.395
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 31
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 34
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Under

SATURDAY, AUGUST 15

Game 267-268: Atlanta at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.781; Detroit 128.428
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Over

Game 269-270: Chicago at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: N/A
Dunkel Line: N/A
Vegas Line: N/A
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 271-272: Tampa Bay at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: N/A
Dunkel Line: N/A
Vegas Line: N/A
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 273-274: Houston at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.227; Kansas City 119.745
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 33 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2); Under

Game 275-276: Cleveland at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 119.273; Green Bay 117.959
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 31
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Under

Game 277-278: Seattle at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 122.677; San Diego 124.905
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 33 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 4; 36
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+4); Under

MONDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 279-280: Jacksonville at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 124.980; Miami 124.460
Dunkel Line: Even; 26
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 32
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Under

Game 281-282: Carolina at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 121.895; NY Giants 122.500
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 30
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 33 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under

**pm530** · 08-14-2009, 11:09 AM

NFL
Preseason [/B]

Friday, August 14

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints [8:00 PM ET]

Bengals: Quarterback Carson Palmer is eager to play again. Palmer is healthy after missing the final 12 games last season because of an elbow injury. One person thrilled to have Palmer back is wide receiver Chad Ochocinco. He had his worst receiving numbers last year since his rookie season of 2001. The Bengals figure to be the more inspired team coming off a 4-11-1 season. The Bengals also are being featured on the HBO series “Hard Knocks” and would like to keep building fan interest and optimism from the publicity they have been receiving from the show. Cincinnati is one of the youngest teams. The Bengals have 20 first-year players in camp. This doesn’t include No. 1 draft pick offensive tackle Andre Smith, who is a holdout. The Bengals are 6-2 against the spread the past four years in preseason when taking points.

Cincinnati has covered 6 of the last 8 times they’ve been a ‘dog during preseason.

Key Injuries - Tight ends Reggie Kelly (Achilles’ tendon) and Ben Utecht (concussion) are both out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Saints (-3, O/U 37): Drew Brees threw for the most yards in the NFL last season and he also tied for the most touchdown passes with 34, but he’s not expected to play very much. Brees’ mother recently passed away so his mind probably isn’t too focused on this matchup. That should mean plenty of work for New Orleans’ backup quarterbacks - Mark Brunell and Joey Harrington. Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas are slated to split carries in the first quarter before giving way to the second and third-stringers. The Saints have changed their defense, going to multiple looks under new coordinator Gregg Williams. This is an intricate style of defense featuring many different alignments. It could take the Saints’ defenders a while to get comfortable with such a complicated scheme. The Saints use a similar scheme on offense, too, depending on the down and situation.

The Saints have gone under in 7 of their last 9 preseason contests during the past two seasons.

Key Injuries - Tight end Jeremy Shockey (ankle) and linebacker Mark Simoneau (arm) are out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers [10:00 PM ET]

Broncos: For the first time in 15 years the Broncos will play a game without Mike Shanahan as head coach. After missing out on the playoffs the past three years, the Broncos closed the curtain on Shanahan after 14 seasons. Denver is going through huge changes with new coach, 33-year-old Josh McDaniels. Offensively, the Broncos are looking to be more physical with a power rushing attack instead of a zone blocking scheme. They are anxious to test out rookie first-round draft choice running back Knowshon Moreno. The Broncos also have veterans LaMont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter and J.J. Arrington to run the ball. Former Bears quarterback Kyle Orton is under tremendous pressure to replace Jay Cutler. Orton has not had a good camp so far. Defensively, the Broncos will employ both a 3-4 and 4-3 alignment depending on weekly needs under new coordinator Mike Nolan.

Denver is 5-1-1 ATS as a preseason underdog the past four years.

Key Injuries - Wide receiver Brandon Marshall (hip) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 16 (OVER - Total of the Day)

49ers (-2.5, O/U 34): 49ers coach Mike Singletary has run a grueling camp having had his team practice in pads since Day 1 as he tries to lead the 49ers to their first winning season in seven years. The big question for the 49ers is who will be the starting quarterback, Shaun Hill or former No. 1 overall draft pick Alex Smith? Hill is 7-3 the past two years when starting. He’s expected to get the start in this matchup. Smith missed all of 2008 after re-injuring his surgically repaired right shoulder right before the season-opener. Following Hill and Smith in the quarterback rotation is journeyman Damon Huard. Rookie Nate Davis is in line for mop up duty. Singletary is holding out star running back Frank Gore and wide receiver Isaac Bruce, not wanting to risk an injury. Rookie Glen Coffee is filling in for Gore.

San Francisco’s last 3 preseason games have all gone over.

Key Injuries - Linebacker Patrick Willis (ankle) and running back Michael Robinson (groin) are out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 19 (Side of the Day)

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**Udog** · 08-15-2009, 11:10 AM

NFL
Preseason

Saturday, August 15

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Tips and Trends
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers [8:00 PM ET]

Browns: Eric Mangini takes over a Cleveland squad that has made just one postseason appearance with no playoff victories, since re-entering the NFL in 1999. Mangini faces many challenges in trying to improve on last year’s 4-12 mark. One of the biggest tasks is improving an offense that failed to score during the last six games of 2008. Mangini needs to decide on a starting quarterback, either Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson. So both quarterbacks should be pumped for this matchup. Mangini has been drilling the Browns on a no-huddle offense, a scheme Anderson feels comfortable with because he’s more of a rhythm passer. The Browns, though, don’t want to show too much of their playbook since the teams meet again in the regular season on Oct. 25 in Cleveland. Mangini is keeping the Browns’ 3-4 defensive alignment although much improvement is needed.

The Browns were 0-4 straight-up and against the spread last year in preseason.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 17 (Side of the Day)

Packers (-2.5, O/U 35): The Packers haven’t had a full contact scrimmage yet because their annual intra-squad game had to be called off because of bad weather. The Packers return 21 of their 22 starters, although their offensive line remains unsettled. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the first-string offense are only expected to play a couple of series. That has been the Packers’ tradition under Mike McCarthy during their first preseason game. Second-year pros Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm complete Green Bay’s quarterback rotation. The Packers are switching to a 3-4 defensive alignment, so their starting defense may play longer as the team tries to get game experience. Aaron Kampman is making the biggest adjustment going from defensive end to linebacker. Neither of Green Bay’s punters, Durant Brooks nor Jeremy Kapinos, has looked good in training camp. First-round draft pick B.J. Raji isn’t ready to play yet.

Green Bay is 1-7 to the Under the past eight years during Week 1 of the preseason.

Key Injuries - Linebacker Nick Barnett (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 19

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers [10:00 PM ET]

Seahawks: Seattle is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 4-12 year, but its season’s rests on the health of quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who missed more than half the year with a bulging disc in his back. Reports are Hasselbeck is healthy, but there’s nothing like live game action to confirm. He’s not expected to play long, however. Before he exits, Hasselbeck may look for the Seahawks’ new wide receiver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Julius Jones enters the contest as Seattle’s No. 1 runner. Jim Mora replaces Mike Holmgren as head coach. Mora, formerly head man for Atlanta from 2004-2006, isn’t afraid to give plenty of playing time to No. 1 draft pick linebacker Aaron Curry, who is expected to play into the third quarter. The Seahawks have covered seven of their last eight preseason games the past two years, including going 4-0 against the number last year.

The Seahawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight preseason games.

Key Injuries - Left tackle Walter Jones (back) and cornerback Marcus Trufant (back) are not expected to play.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Chargers (-3, O/U 36): The Chargers really don’t have too much to play for in preseason being the heavy favorites to capture the AFC West Division. Still, there is speculation LaDainian Tomlinson could see his first preseason action since 2005 after having a down 2008 season. Darren Sproles, Jacob Hester and Michael Bennett, though, are expected to get the bulk of the carries. Fourth-round draft choice Gartrell Johnson also may run the ball. The big story on defense is the return of Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman and if he’ll have his quickness after a knee injury cost him nearly the entire 2008 season. Chargers coach Norv Turner also wants to see the pass rush potential of first-round pick Larry English. San Diego edged Seattle last year at home in preseason, 18-17, despite being outgained 392-298. The Chargers were favored by 5 ½ points in that contest.

The Chargers have gone Over in 5 of their past 6 preseason games.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (OVER - Total of the Day)

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**Kaptain** · 08-15-2009, 05:08 PM

8-15 QB Rotations

SATURDAY'S QUARTERBACK ROTATIONS

Atlanta: Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley and John Parker-Wilson (rookie).
Ryan is the starter by a mile, but after him Redman is serviceable and Shockley and
Parker-Wilson are raw.

Detroit: Daunte Culpepper, Matthew Stafford (rookie) and Drew Stanton. Culpepper could
win the job early on until Stafford is ready.

Chicago: Jay Cutler, Caleb Hanie and Brett Basanez. Cutler is definitely the guy,
but they have a huge drop-off after him. .

Buffalo: Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Baker and Gibran Hamdan.
Not a thrilling group of quarterbacks. Edwards can get the job done and is trying to
develop chemistry with T.O.

Tampa Bay: Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown, Josh Freeman (rookie) and Josh Johnson.
Raheem Morris takes over and has several decisions to make. Leftwich
and McCown have experience, while Freeman is big with a cannon of an arm.

Tennessee: Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Patrick Ramsey and Alex
Mortensen (rookie). Collins was a backup last year and now is the starter

Houston: Matt Schaub, Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman. This is a pretty good group
for preseason. All have starting experience and could fill in for the injury-prone Schaub when needed.

Kansas City: Matt Cassel, Brodie Croyle, Tyler Thigpen and Ingle Martin. The Chiefs /
will be improved this year thanks to Cassel arriving from New England. He’ll get
decent time in preseason

Cleveland: Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, Brett Ratliff and Richard Bartel (rookie).
Now here’s a team to bet on. They have two decent quarterbacks fighting for a starting
job in Quinn and Anderson.

Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn. Rodgers put up good numbers l
ast year and needs to continue to improve as a signal-caller. Brohm and Flynn are young
and fighting for the backup job.

Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Jeff Rowe and Mike Teel (rookie). Seattle could
use a potential starter behind Hasselbeck, who is not getting any younger.

San Diego: Phillip Rivers, Billy Volek, Charlie Whitehurst. Not an exciting group though
Volek has experience and Whitehurst has some talent. There’s no reason to play Rivers
a ton this preseason.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Preseason Week 1 (8/9 – 8/17)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Preseason Week 1 (8/9 – 8/17)

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