Thursday Trends and Indexes 7/23 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

[pm530]

MLB
Dunkel Index


Seattle at Detroit
The Mariners are coming off yesterday's 2-1 win and look to build on their 8-0 record in their last 8 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Seattle is hte pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 23

Game 951-952: San Francisco at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 13.918; Atlanta (Kawakami) 13.811
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+160); Under

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.359; Arizona (Haren) 15.382
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-215); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-215); Over


Game 955-956: Cleveland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 14.236; Toronto (Rzepczynski) 15.710
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-150); Under

Game 957-958: Seattle at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 15.629; Detroit (French) 15.287
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+105); Over

Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 14.583; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.583
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-120); Under

Game 961-962: Minnesota at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.341; LA Angels (Weaver) 17.036
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Over

Write-in games

Game 963-964: San Diego at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 13.633; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.248
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-260); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-260); Over

Game 965-966: St. Louis at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.065; Washington (Balester) 14.196
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over

Game 967-968: Oakland at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.454; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 17.128
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-260); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-260); Under

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[Kaptain]

JULY GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

American League

Eric Bedard - Seattle: 11-1
John Danks - Chicago White Sox: 7-3
Chien-Ming Wang - N.Y. Yankees: 9-2
John Lackey - Anaheim: 14-3
Jon Lester - Boston: 9-3
Gil Meche - Kansas City: 13-5


National League

Jon Garland - Arizona: 11-4
Tim Hudson - Atlanta: 12-3
Johan Santana - N..Y Mets: 11-5
Carlos Zambrano - Chicago Cubs: 15-2

JULY BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

American League

Mark Buehrle - Chicago White Sox: 5-11
Mark Hendrickson - Baltimore: 3-9
Andy Sonnanstine - Tampa Bay: 2-8

National League

Tim Redding - N.Y. Mets: 3-7

[pm530]

Kaptain - Thanks for sailing by on your journey of the Seven Seas!

[pm530]

MLB


Thursday, July 23

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Tips and Trends
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Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers [1:05 PM ET]

Mariners: Seattle’s pitching staff, owners of the American League’s lowest ERA, got back to normal Wednesday with a 2-1 victory against the Tigers in the second game of this three-game series. The Mariners uncharacteristically dropped Tuesday’s opener, 9-7. Wednesday’s narrow victory lifted Seattle’s record in one-run games to a Major League-best 22-13 and helped improve the ‘under’ to 56-36-2. The Mariners also moved to within one game of .500 on the road (25-26). Jarrod Washburn (7-7, 2.87 ERA) will try to take Thursday’s rubber game. In his last start, the southpaw allowed the Indians just one run in 6 2/3 innings and won for the third straight start and for the fourth time in his last five starts. Washburn gave up eight hits, struck out three and didn't walk a batter. He has allowed two runs in his last 23 2/3 innings. The Mariners are 9-9 in Washburn’s first 18 starts, with the ‘under’ going 13-5-1. This will be Washburn’s first start against the Tigers this season.

The Mariners are 0-6 in Washburn’s last six starts as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - Franklin Gutierrez (shoulder) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)

Tigers (-$1.10 O/U 8.5): Detroit saw its stellar home record slip to 28-14 and its record in one-run games dip to 13-15 after Wednesday’s 2-1 setback. The combined three runs ducked well ‘under’ the eight-run closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 55-35-2 in the club’s first 92 games. In fact, the ‘under’ has cashed in Detroit’s last four meetings with the Mariners. The Tigers have now scored three runs or less in five of their last six outings. Luke French (1-0, 1.89 ERA) put on a good show in his most recent start, a no-decision effort against the Yankees in New York on July 17 in which he gave up two runs on five hits over five innings. He left with a 3-2 lead and the bullpen did a meltdown in the seventh inning. French, in three starts since being called up from Triple-A Toledo, has allowed just four earned runs in 16 innings. He made two relief appearances against Oakland, giving up no runs and no hits over three innings. He has never pitched against Seattle.

The Tigers are 21-9 in their last 30 home games.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

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[pm530]

MLB
Short Sheet


Thursday, July 23

National League

SAN FRANCISCO at ATLANTA, 1:10 PM ET
ZITO: SF 5-19 as a road underdog of +125 to +175
KAWAKAMI: ATL 15-7 as a home favorite of -150 or more

PITTSBURGH at ARIZONA, 9:40 PM ET
MORTON: PIT 27-14 UNDER after a win
HAREN: ARI 12-21 at home in night games

American League

CLEVELAND at TORONTO, 12:37 PM ET
HUFF: CLE 7-16 after allowing 8+ runs
RZEPCZYNSKI: TOR 42-21 UNDER as a home favorite of -125 to -150

SEATTLE at DETROIT, 1:05 PM ET
WASHBURN: SEA 7-1 AWAY after allowing 1 run or less
FRENCH: DET 44-29 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10

TAMPA BAY at CHI WHITE SOX, 2:05 PM ET
KAZMIR: TB 6-18 AWAY with a money line of -100 to -125
BUEHRLE: 10-0 TSR when the money line is -100 to -150

MINNESOTA at LA ANGELS, 10:05 PM ET
BAKER: MIN 16-7 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5
WEAVER: LAA 18-6 when playing on Thursday

Write-In Games

SAN DIEGO at PHILADELPHIA, 7:05 PM ET
CORREIA: 11-4 TSR after 3+ consecutive losses
HAMELS: 10-1 OVER at home in July

ST LOUIS at WASHINGTON, 7:05 PM ET
WAINWRIGHT: 8-1 TSR in road games
ZIMMERMANN: WAS 11-32 in July

OAKLAND at NY YANKEES, 7:05 PM ET
MAZZARO: OAK 49-32 UNDER against left-handed starters
SABATHIA: 2-7 TSR against AL West

TSR = Team Start Record
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[pm530]

WNBA
Dunkel Index


Indiana at San Antonio
The Silver Stars look to bounce back from their 85-75 defeat in Chicago and build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games following a SU loss. San Antonio is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has Indiana favored by just 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 23

Game 601-602: Indiana at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.117; San Antonio 111.598
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 138 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 141
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3); Under

Game 603-604: Chicago at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 101.376; Washington 109.237
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 8; 157 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 5 1/2; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-5); Over

Game 605-606: Sacramento at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 105.523; New York 111.151
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 5 1/2; 147
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+6 1/2); Over

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WNBA
Long Sheet

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Thursday, July 23
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INDIANA (12 - 3) at SAN ANTONIO (6 - 8) - 7/23/2009, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 68-95 ATS (-36.5 Units) in road games since 1997.
INDIANA is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games in July games since 1997.
INDIANA is 44-70 ATS (-33.0 Units) against Western conference opponents since 1997.
INDIANA is 37-61 ATS (-30.1 Units) in road games after a division game since 1997.
INDIANA is 44-70 ATS (-33.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
INDIANA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 3-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (8 - 8) at WASHINGTON (7 - 7) - 7/23/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 166-215 ATS (-70.5 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) in July games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 104-137 ATS (-46.7 Units) vs. division opponents since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 6-3 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-4 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (3 - 13) at NEW YORK (5 - 8) - 7/23/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
SACRAMENTO is 29-53 ATS (-29.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
SACRAMENTO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in May, June, or July games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 3-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Thursday, July 23

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Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bets
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Indiana Fever at San Antonio Silver Stars (+2.5, 141.5)

The Fever wants opponents to expect a certain style of play when they prepare to face the team with the league’s best record.

"Defense is what we want to be known for," Fever star Tamika Catchings told the Associated Press. "The first two games of the season we are 0-2 off the bat. One of the things we talked about in the locker room was what do we want to be known for. Play defense. Sounds so simple, but it's just so hard. Once we made the commitment to one another to be there and have each other's back, that's how we play."

And defense has been the team’s trademark the past 13 games, as it is 12-1 over that span. The Fever are allowing just 69.3 points per game, the best mark in the WNBA, to go with its fourth-ranked field goal percentage defense (41.3 pct).

Meantime, San Antonio has lost its past two games by an average of nine points and is just 3-4 ATS at home this season.

Pick: Fever


Chicago Sky at Washington Mystics (-5.5, 155)

If there’s one thing these two teams should be able to do, it’s put points on the board.

Washington is among the league’s best offensive teams, averaging more than 77 points per game and shooting better than 37 percent from beyond-the-arc. The team’s defense, however, is mediocre at best, allowing 76.9 points per game.

The Sky are very similar. Chicago’s defense is terrible, yielding more than 80 points per night. And while the team’s offense isn’t incredible, it does what it can to offset a lackadaisical approach on defense, averaging 74.5 points per game.

The Sky’s over/under record of 8-1 on the road also is an impressive number and blends well with Washington’s over/under home record of 4-3. The number is high, but expect scoring to soar.

Pick: Over

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[pm530]

Len’s Top Five


Thursday, July 23

Len's Top 5

Happy Thursday everyone, here's my Top 5 for July 23, 2009 from Len Berman Sports.

1. Quick Hits

Can you imagine, it was Manny Ramirez bobblehead night in L.A. but Manny didn't start with a sore hand. Oh, he pinch hit a grand slam homer as the Dodgers won. He's eclipsing A-Rod as a headline maker.

Busy day for the Red Sox, they pick up first baseman Adam LaRoche from Pittsburgh and drop two games back of the first place Yankees.

"Forbidden videos" of LeBron James being dunked over finally surfaced yesterday. The Zapruder film they ain't.

2. Testing 1-2-3

Major League Baseball uses DNA testing in spots. The New York Times had a front page story yesterday describing how that will be illegal come November. It's been used to try to keep some Latin players honest. For example 19-year old Esmaillyn Gonzalez turned out to be 23-year old Carlos David Alvarez Lugo. And 17-year old Jose Ozoria was really 20-year old Wally Bryan. Players lie to appear younger, and DNA testing sorts out who the real parents are with real birth certificates. But federal law doesn't want employers nosing around in people's personal lives. Too bad. In some limited cases it seems
perfectly reasonable.

3. Radio without Pictures

Sorry to see the Islanders cheaping out. No more radio announcers. They'll do an old fashioned simulcast. The TV call, will be heard on radio. That's a big mistake. When the TV guys are talking specifically about the replays the radio listeners will be lost. In 1974, I spent a season simulcasting Boston Celtics games with the legendary Johnny Most. What a disaster. I was the analyst. And boy were the radio listeners in trouble. It's bad enough that the Islanders play in a minor league arena, they don't need their broadcasts sounding bush league as well.

4. Back to the Future

Mets fans take heart. This season may be lost, but there's always the farm system. Hmm let's see. Their Triple A team, the Buffalo Bisons, are in last place. Their Double A team, the Binghamton Mets, are in last place. Their Appalachian League team, the Kingsport Mets, are in last place. Is this 2009 or 1962? And isn't the VP for player development Tony Bernazard doing a swell job?

5. Intergalactic War

I always thought it was dopey when the Yankees came up with the phrase "Yankees Universe." It was clearly trying to one-up the established "Red Sox Nation." Well Red Sox owner John Henry has had enough. He tweeted: "News from Yankees Universe, big upsurge in membership. Apparently coming mostly from Pluto. Not doing nearly as well on Mars.” Well, duh. News has yet to reach Pluto that the Yankees are ringless since 2000.

Happy Birthday: Nomah. Mr. Mia Hamm, Oakland infielder Nomar Garciaparra. 36.
Bonus Birthdays: Harry Potter (Actor Daniel Radcliffe.) 20. The one the only, Monica Lewinsky. 36.

Today in Sports: Shea Stadium hosts a 3 hour and 39 minute rain delay. What a moment. The Giants beat the Mets 4-2. 1994.
Bonus Event: Miss America, Vanessa Williams, turns in her crown after nude photos of her surface. 1984.

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[Kaptain]

Kaptain - Thanks for sailing by on your journey of the Seven Seas!

thanks PM, appreciate all that you and U Dog do for the FORUM......

also appeciate you guys stopping by at the other place......

keep up the good work