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11/08/03 6:58 ET
by Russ Culver
When a team has a glittering won-loss record it tends to drive that team's odds up because the public loves to play the hot, well-publicized team. Winning big on Sunday or Monday night national TV games also will inflate the lines since these are the contests the public remembers the most. Kansas City is undefeated and coming off a Sunday night dismantling of Buffalo and the line on the Chiefs-Browns game reflects that. In their four home games this year the Chiefs were favored by 5 1/2 over the 1-7 Chargers, 2 ½ over the 2-6 Steelers, 3 ½ over the 5-4 Broncos and 6 ½ over the 4-4 Bills. The 3-5 Browns might look to be in turmoil-they have suspended running back William Green and benched leading receiver Kevin Johnson for this game-but those personnel moves are not as devastating as they would appear. Green has been injured and didn't even play in their last game (at New England). His replacement, James Jackson, is averaging 4.6 yards per run, significantly better than Green's 3.9 average this year. Johnson was benched because he doesn't make an effort to block on plays when he doesn't get the ball. Considered somewhat of a hot dog, his teamates have little sympathy for him. The Browns' deepest position is receiver and increasing playing time for Dennis Northcutt and Andre Davis won't hurt them. Kelly Holcomb finally being healthy enough to start is also considered good news inside the Cleveland locker room. Holcomb is much more popular than Tim Couch among his teamates and it was Holcomb who threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs in the first game of last season. Regardless of circumstances, the Browns always seem to find a way to stick like glue to their opponents. Since last year they have lost only twice by more than seven points (encompassing 25 games) and they are their most tenacious on the road. They are 8-4 straight up and 9-3 against the line as travellers since last season.
Since last year Tampa Bay has gone 7-0 following a loss, winning by an average score of 24-6. They have the NFL's best touchdown defense inside the red zone, allowing only seven TD's in their opponent's 17 red zone possessions. Carolina has the worst red zone offense in the league, scoring only eight TD's in 23 trips inside their opponent's 20 yard line. And the Panther's defense is faltering. Their defensive quarterback rating of 88.7 and 7.24 yards per pass allowed are among the worst in the league. Their soft pass defense was on display last week at Houston where Tony Banks and the Texans converted on seven of their eight third down conversions in the second half. It isn't that hard to imagine Brad Johnson having a big game. I have a much more difficult time imagining Jake Delhomme having a big game.
I wrote last week about Baltimore's lackluster pass defense and they gave up 320 net yards to the Jaguars. What was interesting about their defense versus Jacksonville, however, was the 4.5 yards per rush the Jags gained. You will never hear TV analysts say it because he is one of their anointed marketable superstars, but Ray Lewis isn't nearly as intimidating as he's portrayed to be. Lewis still trash talks like he owns the game and he ranks third in the league this season with 83 tackles, but he's not as fierce on the field as he is in his commercials. He is only 243 pounds now (after playing at 245 last season) and without dominating defensive tackles playing in front of him anymore he isn't able to work through blockers as easily. With the season half over you could make the case that Baltimore rookie quarterback Kyle Boller is maturing into a respectable player. After all, his stats are steadily improving. In his first four games he had quarterback ratings of 57.5, 31.0, 65.2 and 33.0 with two touchdowns and six interceptions. In his last four games his ratings were 61.1, 104.2, 81.9 and 63.0 with four touchdowns and two interceptions. But Boller has had a very kind road schedule. After opening the season at Pittsburgh, his next three away games have been at San Diego, Arizona and Cincinnati. Those three teams have at least a couple of things in common. In addition to not having great pass defenses (the Chargers and Cardinals rank in the bottom 10 in defensive quarterback ratings), all three lack strong home town support. Boller, therefore, has had the luxury of playing his last three road games in front of relatively passive crowds. That will change dramatically Sunday night. When he takes the field in the Edward Jones Stadium, he will be asked to run the Ravens' offense in such a frenetic atmosphere that he won't even be able to count on relaying audible signals to his teamates. St. Louis' home field is just as loud as Minnesota's Metrodome and is largely responsible for the Rams having the best home record in the NFL since '99-33-7 straight up with an average winning margin of 13 points. Baltimore would like to jump out to a big early lead and take the crowd out of the game, but this team is not built for that; they are very conservative offensively and rarely throw to their wide receivers-their top wide receiver, Travis Taylor, is averaging less than three catches per game.
Since '00 Philadelphia is 21-7 straight up on the road, with five of the seven losses by three points or less. They are also 21-5 since '00 in the months of November and December. Both marks are league bests. Defense is the key. Since arriving in '99, head coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson have held opponents to 17 points or less in 42 of their 71 games (60%). They have allowed 25 or more points only 11 times.That stout defense has had an effect on Brett Farve. Farve has a lifetime quarterback rating of 71.1 against Philadelphia, the fourth lowest of all his NFL opponents. Since discarding his thumb brace two games ago, Donovan McNabb has completed 68% of his passes (38 of 56).
Here are my plays for this week:
Arizona Cardinals
Tampa Bay Bucs
Cleveland Browns
Buffalo Bills
St. Louis Rams
Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons-NY Giants OVER
Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions OVER
Houston Texans-Cincinnati Bengals OVER
Cleveland Browns-Kansas City Chiefs UNDER
NY Jets-Oakland Raiders OVER
Philadelphia Eagles-Green Bay Packers UNDER
hope you people like the input on NFL by Russ
by Russ Culver
When a team has a glittering won-loss record it tends to drive that team's odds up because the public loves to play the hot, well-publicized team. Winning big on Sunday or Monday night national TV games also will inflate the lines since these are the contests the public remembers the most. Kansas City is undefeated and coming off a Sunday night dismantling of Buffalo and the line on the Chiefs-Browns game reflects that. In their four home games this year the Chiefs were favored by 5 1/2 over the 1-7 Chargers, 2 ½ over the 2-6 Steelers, 3 ½ over the 5-4 Broncos and 6 ½ over the 4-4 Bills. The 3-5 Browns might look to be in turmoil-they have suspended running back William Green and benched leading receiver Kevin Johnson for this game-but those personnel moves are not as devastating as they would appear. Green has been injured and didn't even play in their last game (at New England). His replacement, James Jackson, is averaging 4.6 yards per run, significantly better than Green's 3.9 average this year. Johnson was benched because he doesn't make an effort to block on plays when he doesn't get the ball. Considered somewhat of a hot dog, his teamates have little sympathy for him. The Browns' deepest position is receiver and increasing playing time for Dennis Northcutt and Andre Davis won't hurt them. Kelly Holcomb finally being healthy enough to start is also considered good news inside the Cleveland locker room. Holcomb is much more popular than Tim Couch among his teamates and it was Holcomb who threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs in the first game of last season. Regardless of circumstances, the Browns always seem to find a way to stick like glue to their opponents. Since last year they have lost only twice by more than seven points (encompassing 25 games) and they are their most tenacious on the road. They are 8-4 straight up and 9-3 against the line as travellers since last season.
Since last year Tampa Bay has gone 7-0 following a loss, winning by an average score of 24-6. They have the NFL's best touchdown defense inside the red zone, allowing only seven TD's in their opponent's 17 red zone possessions. Carolina has the worst red zone offense in the league, scoring only eight TD's in 23 trips inside their opponent's 20 yard line. And the Panther's defense is faltering. Their defensive quarterback rating of 88.7 and 7.24 yards per pass allowed are among the worst in the league. Their soft pass defense was on display last week at Houston where Tony Banks and the Texans converted on seven of their eight third down conversions in the second half. It isn't that hard to imagine Brad Johnson having a big game. I have a much more difficult time imagining Jake Delhomme having a big game.
I wrote last week about Baltimore's lackluster pass defense and they gave up 320 net yards to the Jaguars. What was interesting about their defense versus Jacksonville, however, was the 4.5 yards per rush the Jags gained. You will never hear TV analysts say it because he is one of their anointed marketable superstars, but Ray Lewis isn't nearly as intimidating as he's portrayed to be. Lewis still trash talks like he owns the game and he ranks third in the league this season with 83 tackles, but he's not as fierce on the field as he is in his commercials. He is only 243 pounds now (after playing at 245 last season) and without dominating defensive tackles playing in front of him anymore he isn't able to work through blockers as easily. With the season half over you could make the case that Baltimore rookie quarterback Kyle Boller is maturing into a respectable player. After all, his stats are steadily improving. In his first four games he had quarterback ratings of 57.5, 31.0, 65.2 and 33.0 with two touchdowns and six interceptions. In his last four games his ratings were 61.1, 104.2, 81.9 and 63.0 with four touchdowns and two interceptions. But Boller has had a very kind road schedule. After opening the season at Pittsburgh, his next three away games have been at San Diego, Arizona and Cincinnati. Those three teams have at least a couple of things in common. In addition to not having great pass defenses (the Chargers and Cardinals rank in the bottom 10 in defensive quarterback ratings), all three lack strong home town support. Boller, therefore, has had the luxury of playing his last three road games in front of relatively passive crowds. That will change dramatically Sunday night. When he takes the field in the Edward Jones Stadium, he will be asked to run the Ravens' offense in such a frenetic atmosphere that he won't even be able to count on relaying audible signals to his teamates. St. Louis' home field is just as loud as Minnesota's Metrodome and is largely responsible for the Rams having the best home record in the NFL since '99-33-7 straight up with an average winning margin of 13 points. Baltimore would like to jump out to a big early lead and take the crowd out of the game, but this team is not built for that; they are very conservative offensively and rarely throw to their wide receivers-their top wide receiver, Travis Taylor, is averaging less than three catches per game.
Since '00 Philadelphia is 21-7 straight up on the road, with five of the seven losses by three points or less. They are also 21-5 since '00 in the months of November and December. Both marks are league bests. Defense is the key. Since arriving in '99, head coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson have held opponents to 17 points or less in 42 of their 71 games (60%). They have allowed 25 or more points only 11 times.That stout defense has had an effect on Brett Farve. Farve has a lifetime quarterback rating of 71.1 against Philadelphia, the fourth lowest of all his NFL opponents. Since discarding his thumb brace two games ago, Donovan McNabb has completed 68% of his passes (38 of 56).
Here are my plays for this week:
Arizona Cardinals
Tampa Bay Bucs
Cleveland Browns
Buffalo Bills
St. Louis Rams
Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons-NY Giants OVER
Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions OVER
Houston Texans-Cincinnati Bengals OVER
Cleveland Browns-Kansas City Chiefs UNDER
NY Jets-Oakland Raiders OVER
Philadelphia Eagles-Green Bay Packers UNDER
hope you people like the input on NFL by Russ