Friday Trends and Indexes 7/17 (MLB, CFL, Misc.)

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MLB


Friday, July 17

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Tips and Trends
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Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees [7:05 PM ET]

Tigers: The AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers are hoping the New York Yankees don’t make toast out of starting pitcher Luke French when the two clubs resume playing for the first time after a four-day All-Star break. French, a rookie southpaw making just his third big-league start, will be trying to fry a Yankees lineup that has been hitting homers out of the new Yankee Stadium in record numbers. He also must be aware that the Yankees are 17-10 against southpaw starters this season. French recorded his first big-league win in his last start when he held the Royals to one run on six hits in 6 1/3 innings. Detroit is 21-26 in its first 47 road games and 30-29 versus right-handed starters.

The Under is 7-1 in Detroit’s last eight road games.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Yankees (-$2.10 O/U 9.5 over -$1.20): The Yankees will begin the season’s second half trying to snap a three-game losing skid. Joe Torre’s troops traveled to Los Angeles prior to the All-Star break and were swept by the Angels by a combined score of 29-18 during the three-game weekend series. New York’s hurlers allowed 10 runs in the series opener and 14 runs in the middle game. A.J. Burnett, whose 11 wins are tied for the AL lead, had a 5.73 ERA against the Tigers last season - but won both starts against them. However, Burnett has a bloated 8.03 career ERA against the Tigers. The Yankees captured two of three against Detroit at Comerica Park in April, with two games going ‘over’ the closing total

The Yankees are 21-9 in their last 30 meetings with the Tigers.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)

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MLB


Friday, July 17

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Hot lines: Today’s best MLB bets
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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-114, 9.5)

This one figures to keep runners crossing home plate all night.

The Brewers over/under record on the road is 24-18 and the team has yet to settle on its pitching rotation for the second half of the season. Cincinnati’s over/under record is 20-19-1 at home. This number is especially impressive, since the Reds are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball, but at least a little better at home.

The teams have played eight times this year, with the number going over the total five times. In those eight matchups, the teams have averaged nearly a combined 11 runs per game.

Add in the fact the Brewers are starting Jeff Suppan (4.70 ERA) and the Reds are trotting out Bronson Arroyo (5.38 ERA), and this game seems destined to be a slugfest.

Pick: Over


Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins (+112, 8.5)

Philadelphia might not be able to win much in its own park this season, but the Phillies have had no trouble getting the “W” in south Florida this year.

The Phillies are 3-0 in Miami this season and are an NL-best 26-15. Philadelphia, which averages more than 5.6 runs per game on the road, also has won six of the past eight meetings with the Marlins.

Florida enters the game having split its past 10 games and touting a discouraging run differential of minus-13. The Marlins also have scored more than five runs just once in their past six home games.

Philadelphia should have an edge on the mound with Cole Hamels opposing the streaky Ricky Nolasco. The Phillies should be disappointed if they don’t take three of four in this series.

Pick: Phillies

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MLB


Friday, July 17

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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
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Streaking

Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners)

It’s tough to find negatives about King Felix.

The 23-year-old right-hander ranks in the top 10 in the AL in wins, strikeouts, ERA, innings pitched and WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched). He has lasted at least 6 1-3 innings in each start since May 19 and has allowed more than two earned runs only once during that span.

In his most recent outing, a 3-1 win over Texas, Hernandez yielded only one earned run on three hits in eight innings while striking out eight. If Hernandez (9-3, 2.53 ERA) can improve his command – he averages two walks per start – he will be a legit Cy Young candidate.

“Just the way he's been taking the mound, I can't say enough about him,” Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu told the Associated Press. “He's at the top of his game right now, and probably as good as anybody in the game."

A.J. Burnett (New York Yankees)

CC may still be the big initials in the Yankees staff, but fans who follow the Bombers know it's Burnett who has emerged as the team’s ace.

Burnett (8-4, 3.77 ERA) has yielded two or fewer runs in each of his past five starts, going at least six innings each time out. In his most recent start, a 4-3 win over Minnesota, he allowed just two earned runs on seven hits in 6 1-3 innings.

Burnett’s biggest flaw is his control – he leads the AL with 53 walks. If he ever gets his location under control, his strikeout total of 101 Ks would soar.

"When you're clicking, everything just flows," Burnett told reporters. "When you're clicking on pitches, you don't even think about anything. You know, it's just all confidence out there."


Slumping

Tomo Ohka (Cleveland Indians)

It shouldn’t take Ohka long to find his way back to the bullpen.

After getting obliterated in two starts in late June – a 7-3 loss to the Reds and a 6-5 defeat at the hands of the Cubs – Ohka was demoted to the bullpen before getting pushed back into the rotation last week.

But that decision already seems questionable after Ohka (0-3, 6.40) picked up a 10-1 loss against the Tigers right before the All-Star break. Ohka lasted just 3 2-3 innings while giving up five earned runs on five hits, including a pair of gopher balls.

"My fastball was up," Ohka said. "I felt OK, but I kept making bad pitches."


Debuting

Clay Buchholz (Boston Red Sox)

The 24-year-old hurler has spent the entire season in Triple-A after a disasterous 2008 that saw the right-hander finish 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA.

Buchholz will make his season debut on Friday in part to a hole in the team's rotation and also because of the phenomenal numbers he put up in Pawtucket. He figures to have a hard time breaking into the team’s rotation, however if he has a solid outing against one of the better hitting teams in the majors, Buchholz could find himself with an extended stay at Fenway Park.

“I want him to live up to some of the things that he’s capable of doing,” Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett told the Boston Herald. “I don’t want him to have to go through injuries and stuff like that to learn. I know I had to do that. Anytime you can catch things before they happen, that’s good.”

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MLB


Friday, July 17

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Weekend MLB cheat sheet
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The MLB All-Star Game is in the history books after the American League extended its domination over the National League.

Interestingly, history tells us the first set of games following the All-Star break generally do not play to form. Perhaps it’s a case of the players re-acclimating themselves to the daily grind, or it’s momentum – good or bad – that came to a halt.

Whatever the case, it’s best to be cautious this first weekend back.

That being the case, it might serve you well to look fade the best and worst trendsetters from the first half of the campaign from this point forward.

According the cov.com website, the top two money earners the first half of the season were the Los Angeles Dodgers ($1937) and the (Los Angeles Angels ($1224). The biggest money burners have been the Washington Nationals (-$2969) and the Cleveland Indians (-$2329).

The best home teams were the San Francisco Giants ($1363) and the Detroit Tigers ($1085). The worst home efforts were turned in by the Arizona Diamondbacks (-$1615) and the Cleveland Indians (-$1277).

On the pitching front, Los Angeles Angels’ Matt Palmer ($1064) and Boston Red Sox’ Tim Wakefield ($922) have been the best at making deposits while Colorado Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez (-$733) and Kansas City Royals’ Gil Meche (-$708) have set the pace on the opposite end.

Our best guess is that the teams and pitchers named above will likely come back to the norm. Keep an eye on them and judge for yourself.

With that we’ll play cautious and take a look the top two series on tap in both circuits this weekend. Remember, all results are within the series and all pitcher records are team starts (the team’s record in games in which the pitcher starts) versus this opponent.

National League

Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins

Most recent series result: Phillies 6-2 in last eight games (4-2 this season).

Most Recent series result at location: Phillies 5-0 in last five games (3-0 this season) away.

Key day/month stat: Phillies 17-4 Sundays.

Best arm in the series: Phillies’ Blanton 3-0, 3.16 ERA career.

Worst arm in the series: Phillies’ Hamels 0-4, 3.81 ERA away career.


American League

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees

Most recent series result: Yankees 4-1 in last five games.

Most recent series result at the site: Tigers 3-0 in last three games away.

Best arm in the series: Tigers’ Verlander 5-1, 4.98 ERA career starts; Yankees’ Pettite 5-1, 2.62 ERA last five home at home.

Worst arm in the series: Tigers’ Jackson 0-4, 7.05 ERA last four starts.

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MLB


Friday, July 17

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MLB series of the week: Tigers at Yankees
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Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees

Season series

New York took two of three at Comerica Park in late April. Ironically, Detroit’s lone win was against Yankees ace CC Sabathia. The Yankees totaled 19 runs (to Detroit’s six) while winning the final two games of the series.

In the middle game, the Bombers broke up a scoreless game by scoring 10 runs in the seventh inning.

The Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez was still on the disabled list when these two met the first time.

Detroit swept the Yankees three games last year in the Bronx for the franchise’s first three-game sweep in New York since 1966. But the Tigers are still just 9-21 in the past 30 games visiting the Yanks, although this will be their first chance at the new homer-happy Yankee Stadium.

The pitchers

Before the All-Star break, Tigers manager Jim Leyland said he would set his rotation with aces Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander pegged for the final two games of this series.

Leyland broke up Verlander and Jackson from pitching in back-to-back games in June so he could help his bullpen, but admitted he wasn’t sure if he would continue that in the second half.

Friday

Detroit (Luke French, 1-0, 1.93) at New York (A.J. Burnett, 8-4, 3.77)

The rookie French has made two starts this year, winning his last time against Zack Greinke and the Royals. In Burnett’s final start before the break, he held the Twins to two runs in 6 1-3 innings for the victory. Since May 27, Burnett is 6-2 with a 2.01 ERA. He didn’t pitch against Detroit earlier this year.

Saturday

Detroit (Justin Verlander, 10-4, 3.38) at New York (CC Sabathia, 8-6, 3.86)

Verlander reached 10 wins by All-Star break for third time in four seasons and is on pace to exceed his career-high in innings by about 40. He got the lone win in the early-season series with New York, beating Sabathia. Verlander blanked New York for seven innings, striking out nine.

Sabathia, meanwhile, allowed four runs on eight innings that day. The big lefty is just 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in three July starts. New York is just 9-10 in his starts this year.

Sunday

Detroit (Edwin Jackson, 7-4, 2.52) at New York (Joba Chamberlain, 4-2, 4.25)

Jackson shut down the National League in order during the fifth inning of the All-Star Game, throwing just four pitches. He beat the Indians in his final start before the break, ending a five-start winless streak.

Chamberlain’s longest outing this season came against Detroit on April 29. Joba allowed just one run in seven innings for his first win of the year and first victory since July 30, 2008. But Chamberlain was bombed by the Jays and Angels in his two final pre-break starts.

Tigers’ outfield platoon

If Leyland sticks to his plans to platoon Clete Thomas and Magglio Ordonez in right field, then Ordonez would only start this series against the lefty Sabathia.

Thomas, meanwhile, is 7-for-13 since being recalled from Triple-A last week. He finished Sunday’s win over Cleveland with a career-high five RBIs and a double short of the cycle.

"I'm seeing the ball pretty good," Thomas said.

Ordonez, a career .300 hitter, is batting .260, his lowest average since he began playing full-time in 1997. He also has just four homers.

Leyland is hoping this platoon gets Mags going; a four-game benching in mid-June didn’t do the trick.

Watching from home

Alex Rodriguez missed his first All-Star Game since 1999 after not being selected. He spent the time working with a rehab specialist on his hip and with his daughters.

A-Rod has been streaking of late: In the final 17 games before the All-Star break, Rodriguez batted .373 while knocking out eight dingers and driving in 22 runs.

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MLB
Write-up


Friday, July 17

The MLB “Write-up” is late today, we will post when available.

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WNBA
Dunkel Index


Atlanta at Indiana
The Dream look to build on their 4-1 ATS record over their last 5 road games. Atlanta is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Indiana favored by just 6. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 17

Game 651-652: Atlanta at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.810; Indiana 117.037
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Connecticut at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 111.260; San Antonio 109.151
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 2; 149
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4 1/2); Over

Game 655-656: Seattle at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 109.303; Sacramento 106.817
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2 1/2; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over

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WNBA


Friday, July 17

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Lady Luck: Today’s WNBA best bets
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Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever (-7.5, 152)

The hottest team in the WNBA continue to roll. The Fever's 84-74 victory over Chicago marked their 10th straight after dropping the first two games of the season.

Indiana is paced by All-Star starters Tamika Catchings – the league’s leading vote-getter – and Katie Douglas. The team is so deep, both Catchings and center Tammy Brown-Sutton have been named Eastern Conference Players of the Week this season. The Fever also are a staggering 9-3 against the spread (ATS), including 6-2 ATS at home.

Meantime, Atlanta is a respectable 4-3 ATS on the road, but just 2-5 SU. In an earlier trip to Indiana this season, the Dream held tough before falling, 78-74. It won’t be as close this time.

Pick: Fever


Connecticut Sun at San Antonio Silver Stars (-4.5, 143)

It appears the Sun are picking a good time to rise. Following an 82-71 win over the Sparks on Tuesday, the Sun again find themselves among a pack of teams vying for second place in the East. The team is winning its games thanks to a stingy defense that is allowing just 71 points per game, the fourth-lowest total in the league.

On offense, the Sun are paced by Ashja Jones (16.9 pg, 5.9 rpg), who has led the team in scoring in seven of the past 10 games. In a 71-58 beatdown of San Antonio on June 21, Jones dropped a team-high 19.

The Silver Stars counter with the dynamic duo of Becky Hammon (19.5 ppg) and Sophia Young (17.5 ppg), but still have just the 11th-ranked offense in the league, averaging barley over 72 points a game.

Pick: Sun

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MLB
Write-up


Friday, July 17

Hot Pitchers
-- Lincecum is 6-1, 1.61 in his last seven starts.
-- Jurrjens is 2-1, 3.32 in his last three starts. Pelfrey is 2-0, 1.35 in his last two road starts.
-- Nolasco is 3-0, 1.57 in his last three home starts.
-- Garland has a 2.25 RA in his last three starts, but Arizona lost his last five road outings. Carpenter is 2-0, 2.77 in his last two starts.
-- Oswalt is 2-0, 1.86 in his last four starts.

-- Hernandez is 4-0, 1.50 in his last eight starts.
-- Romero is 4-0, 1.98 in his last five starts.
-- Burnett is 4-1, 1.60 in his last five starts. Detroit won French's first two starts (1-0, 2.45).
-- Padilla is 3-1, 3.10 in his last five starts. Perkins is 2-0, 1.29 in his last couple road starts.
-- Danks is 2-0, 1.80 in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Cubs lost Zambrano's last three road starts (0-1, 3.98). Stammen has a 0-2, 7.15 mark in his four home starts.
-- Maholm has 7.57 RA in his last five starts.
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 6.58 in his last four home starts. Suppan is 0-2, 6.14 in his last five outings.
-- Hamels is 1-3, 5.53 in his last seven starts.
-- Rockies lost eight of last nine Jimenez road starts. Geer is 0-3, 6.47 in his last seven starts.
-- Billingsley is 0-1, 5.51 in his last five starts.

-- Ohka is 0-3, 7.40 in four starts this season.
-- Buchholz is making first '09 start; he was 7-2, 2.36 in 16 AAA starts, but is 5-10, 5.56 in 18 big league starts, which includes a no-hitter.
-- Greinke is 2-4, 5.16 in his last eight starts. Rays are 1-5 in Shields' last six road outings.
-- Berken is 0-6, 6.37 in his last eight starts.
-- Cahill is 0-3, 13.50 in his last three starts, Saunders is 0-1, 12.21 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Cubs won three of their last four games.
-- Giants won five of their last seven games.
-- Braves won their last five home games.
-- Phillies won 10 of their last 11 games. Marlins won ten of their last twelve home games.
-- Arizona won seven of its last nine games. Cardinals won eight of 12.
-- Rockies are 28-9 in their last 37 games, 14-4 in last 18 on road.
-- Astros won seven of their last nine games. Dodgers won seven of their last eleven games.

-- Indians won three of their last four home games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last six games.
-- Bronx Bombers won five of last seven home games.
-- Twins won five of their last seven road games. Rangers won their last five home games.
-- Orioles won four of their last five games. White Sox won six of their last eight home games.
-- Angels won eight of their last eleven games.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Pirates lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Reds lost seven of their last nine games. Brewers lost eight of last 12.
-- Mets lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Padres lost eleven of their last thirteen games.

-- Mariners are 14-23 in their last 37 road games.
-- Blue Jays lost four of their last five home games.
-- Tigers lost 10 of their last 14 road games.
-- Royals lost nine of their last twelve home games. Rays lost 14 of last 20 road games.
-- Oakland lost eight of its last ten home games.

Totals
-- Under is 12-4-1 in Cubs' last seventeen road games.
-- Seven of last eight games at PNC Park stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last twelve Cincinnati home games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Colorado road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight games at Dodger Stadium stayed under the total.

-- Under is 19-6-1 in Seattle's last 26 road games.
-- Five of last seven Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Detroit road games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Royals' last seven home games.
-- Five of last six White Sox games went over the total.
-- 13 of Oakland's last 16 home games stayed under the total.

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Six-pack for Friday

-- Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell signed with Saskatchewan (2-0) of the CFL; weird that a kid who put up those kind of numbers and won lot of games in the Big 12 never got a look in the NFL.

-- ESPN has to be very happy that Phil Ivey made the November Nine at Main Event of World Series of Poker-- he is second shortest stack of the nine players, but still, it gives ESPN a recognizable face there.

-- Jamie Moyer allowed one hit in seven innings as Phillies opened up a 6-game lead in the NL East by beating Florida 4-0.

-- Cliff Lee opened second half with 112-pitch complete game as Tribe beat Seattle 4-1. Lee has pitched way better than his record.

-- Ryan Howard hit his 200th HR in his 658th game, fewer than any player in major league history. Ralph Kiner, previously fastest player to reach 200 home runs, did it in 706 games.

-- So Tom Watson is in 2nd place at Turnberry; he won British Open on this course in 1977, few weeks after I graduated from high school.

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Quote of the Day
"The problem with the rat race is
that even if you win, you're still a rat."
Lily Tomlin

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Friday's List of 13: How the top prospects of 2005 are doing today

13) Hanley Ramirez-- Doing pretty damn well in Florida, after Red Sox traded him in the Beckett deal. One of the best shortstops in the major leagues; plus, we have the same birthday.

12) Scott Kazmir-- Also got traded, but in a more lopsided deal for the Rays, even up for the immortal Victor Zambrano. Struggles with going to too many deep counts-- still think his future could be as a closer.

11) Nick Swisher-- As an A's fan, he's one of my favorites, but he's been traded twice, and fans of his current team don't seem to like him a whole lot. If they want to send him back to Oakland, that would be fine here.

10) Rickie Weeks-- Hampered by injury this year, hit .235, .234 the last two seasons, has to be considered a little bit of a disappointment. Still has to yet to play in 130 games in a season, but hasn't been traded yet.

9) Lastings Milledge-- Has been traded twice; now if the Nationals don't want you, thats a problem, but he should get a chance with Pirates, who might be more hopeless than Washington. Hasn't lived up to the hype.

8) Casey Kotchman-- Angels traded him to Atlanta in Teixeira deal, in spite of fact his dad works for Anaheim; is .270 career hitter, but you'd generally like your first baseman to hit for a little more power.

7) Adam Miller-- 32-25 in minor leagues, but had arm surgery this year and his future career is now in doubt. Got as high as AAA level.

6) Jeff Francoeur-- Local Atlanta kid was dealt to Mets last week; has swung at first pitch in more than half his plate appearances so far this season. Strong in RF, but career on-base percentage of .309 isn't good.

5) Ian Stewart-- Has 16 homers at break, but has career batting average of .239, with on-base percentage of just .324. Still not sure whether he's a second or third baseman, but he needs to start hitting better soon.

4) Joel Guzman-- Only 62 plate appearances for Dodgers, Rays, after Tampa Bay traded Julio Lugo for him at '06 trade deadline. Hasn't been in big leagues since 2007, is hitting .305 in AA Eastern League right now.

3) Felix Hernandez-- 9-3, 2.53 so far this season, third year in a row his ERA has gome down-- has WHIP of 1.13, has been dominant of late. It will be interesting to see if Mariners will pay to keep him for long haul.

2) Delmon Young-- Traded to Minnesota in deal that sparked Tampa to their AL championship-- his 68 walks in 1,637 plate appearances show just how selective he isn't at the plate. .322 career on-base percentage.

1) Joe Mauer-- Turned down chance to be Florida State's QB and is now one of the best catchers in baseball, if not the best. Is hitting .372 so far this year, has never hit under .293 in five major league seasons. Now the big question is, will they move him out from behind the plate?

From: Armadillo
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