Thursday Trends and Indexes 7/16 (MLB, CFL, Misc.)

[pm530]

MLB


Thursday, July 16

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Hot lines: Today’s best MLB bets
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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-175, 9)

The Atlanta Braves probably used the three-day All-Star break to recover from the painful 8-7 loss they suffered at Colorado on July 12. The Braves were leading 7-3 going into the seventh inning when the bullpen collapsed and allowed five runs in the last three frames.

Right-handed reliever Luis Valdez, who was appearing in his first Major League game, gave up an RBI double to Brad Hawpe in the ninth inning allowing the Rockies to take an 8-7 lead and win the game.

A win would have allowed the Braves to make it to the .500 mark for the first time since June 12.

Although Atlanta does not hold a stellar record, it has managed to keep games low scoring. The under is 7-2 in the Braves’ last nine games and 7-3 in their last 10 at home.

The Mets have also been a solid under bet. They have failed to surpass the total in six of their last nine games.

Pick: Under


Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (+100, 8.5)

The Washington Nationals’ disappointing first half of the season and MLB worst 26-61 record prompted manager Manny Acta’s firing on Monday.

“We feel that with a different voice and possibly a different feel in the ballclub, we can have a more successful second half of the season,” acting general manager Mike Rizzo told reporters.

“We think we have pieces in place here to have some type of success. We also acknowledge our flaws as a ballclub, and we're working hard before the trade deadline to address the flaws and make prudent baseball deals to address the flaws.”

The flaws that new manager Jim Riggleman adopts are numerous. The bullpen is a mess, the starting rotation is young and untested, and the club's defence is among the worst in the majors.

Riggleman will need more than a few days to correct the problems.

Pick: Cubs

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[pm530]

MLB


Thursday, July 16

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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
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Streaking

Dallas Braden (Oakland Athletics)

Braden (7-7, 3.12 ERA) has delivered a quality start in nine of 10 games since May 16. During that span, he has allowed no more than three earned runs in a game and lasted at least six innings in all but one start. He also yielded two or fewer runs in eight straight starts.

In two starts this month, Braden has given up just three runs in 13 innings. Braden’s most recent start was a 7-2 win over the Rays in which he allowed only two runs on five hits in six innings. He missed time earlier this month to be with his ailing grandmother.

"These guys are absolutely throwing the snot out of the ball and you just want to go out there and do your job," Braden said of the team’s pitching staff to the Associated Press. "As a whole we want to put together a nice body of work and I think we're kind of on the right track to doing so."

Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds)

A month ago, Bailey would have thought his chances of solidifying a spot in the Reds rotation to be a long shot. But after turning in three straight strong starts, the 23-year-old has muscled himself back into the team’s plans.

Bailey (1-0, 5.16 ERA) has allowed just seven runs in his past 18 1-3 innings, including no more than three in each of his previous three starts since being recalled from Triple-A Louisville on June 27. In Bailey’s most recent start, a 3-2 loss at Philadelphia, the right-hander allowed two runs in six innings. He struke out six and didn't hand out any free passes in the outing as well.

The improved control has been the key for Bailey. He has 11 strikeouts against just two walks in his past two starts after issuing seven base on balls in a game earlier this year.


Slumping

Ervin Santana (Los Angeles Angels)

Santana probably should have stayed on the DL.

The right-hander has been hammered in his past two outings, allowing 11 runs in just nine innings. In his most recent start, an 8-1 loss to Texas, Santana (1-5, 7.81 ERA) allowed five runs on seven hits in four innings. The Rangers took advantage of Santana's location problems by tagging him with three long balls.

"It's simple pitching,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia told reporters. “It's getting ahead and putting guys away and tonight he struggled with that. Pitchers are going to go through stages like that, but they still find ways to win. That's what Ervin is searching for."

Rich Harden (Chicago Cubs)

The right-hander has been consistent for Chicago this season. However, that was before July.

Harden (5-6, 5.47 ERA) was roughed up in each of his previous two games – an 11-2 loss to Milwaukee and an 8-3 loss to St. Louis. The Brewers lit him up for seven runs on eight hits in only two innings, the shortest outing of his career. Against the Cardinals, Harden gave up four runs on seven hits and walked four in just five innings.

When asked to describe his recent performance, Harden had only two words: “Batting practice.”

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[pm530]

MLB


Thursday, July 16

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Make or break: Four teams to watch in the second half
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We look at four MLB teams that have make or break second half schedules.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins will enter the break right around .500 and still be in contention in the American League Central. That's the good news.

After the break, 40 of their remaining 73 games are on the road. Minnesota finished the first half with a 17-24 record on the road and it will come out of the gates with 10 straight road games beginning July 17th.

If that wasn’t tough enough, the Twins close the season with a brutal September that features 16 of their 27 games coming away from home.

With both Detroit and Chicago playing the majority of their games at home in the second half, it will be a challenge for the Twins to win their division.

New York Yankees

After a typical slow start, the Yankees are catching fire. New York will have more second half games at home (39) than on the road (35), but the schedule overall looks very tough.

The Yankees have difficult non-division series against Detroit, Chicago (two series), Seattle (two series), Texas and Los Angeles, all clubs still fighting for the postseason as well.

The real issue for New York lies within the division. It has played 32 games in the American League East, going a disappointing 15-17 and it has 40 remaining including 19 on the road. Obviously the Yankees have to improve upon their 0-8 record against Boston.

Philadelphia Phillies

The defending World Series champions have a nice cushion entering the second half of the season.

Philadelphia went 48-33 at home last season but is just 21-23 this year. That should help going forward. The Phillies won't win 48 games on their home field this season but it's a safe bet they'll finish above .500.

Philadelphia has the best divisional record but it has already played 13 against the Washington Nationals. The Phils are fared well outside their division (19-11) and they'll need to continue that success to claim the NL East title once again.

San Francisco Giants

While many have crowned the Dodgers the National League West champions, The Giants are not going away without a fight. They are six games back of in the West own a three-game lead in the Wild Card standings.

San Francisco is 31-14 at home, which is the best home record in all of baseball. It has played the second most home games within the division and the fourth most in the National League, so it will have to pick up its play on the road to remain a playoff contender.

The Giants have seven remaining road series outside of the division that come against teams currently under .500. That will be beneficial knowing that their record on the road is currently 18-24.

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[pm530]

MLB


Thursday, July 16

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MLB Top 5: Biggest surprises of the season's first half
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It would have been fitting for Nelson Cruz to win the Home Run Derby.

A 29-year-old journeyman who had never been a full-time player, Cruz came into the All-Star break with 22 homers in less than 300 at-bats, which tied his previous career total in 557 at-bats over parts of four seasons.

While fans oohed and aahed at local favorite Albert Pujols and native son Ryan Howard, Cruz crushed his way into the final, where he was finally outdone by Prince Fielder.

The All-Star outfielder of the Texas Rangers has been one of the biggest surprises in the first half of the baseball season, which has seen some totally unexpected performances - good and bad - from players, teams and even ballparks.

Let's take a look at the most pronounced:

The new Yankee Stadium

One of baseball's true cathedrals was reconstructed across East 161st in the Bronx and is a magnificent meeting of tradition and technology. It also is a billion-dollar wind tunnel.

The location and design of the new facility has created a natural current pushing out toward right field that has made Yankee Stadium even more of a launching pad for left-handed hitters.

The already robust Yankee lineup leads the majors in runs and homers. The park ranks first in homer rate (after ranking 15th last year) and the over is a solid 23-17 in the first half.

With warmer weather coming, the power boost should continue.

Cliff Lee

A year ago, Lee was the most surprising and best pitcher in the American League, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and winning the Cy Young Award. It was a great season for a good pitcher and created unrealistic expectations.

This year, Lee has had a high price tag whenever he’s taken the mound and is costing bettors plenty of coin. His nine losses matches the most in the AL and he is dead last in starter money at minus $1,269.

How bad is that? A bettor could have backed Washington Nationals starters John Lannan, Scott Olsen and Jordan Zimmerman every time out and lost less money than betting Lee in all of his starts.

World Series hangovers

Jimmy Rollins was the leadoff man and sparkplug for the 2008 World Series champion Phillies but at times this season as been neither. He was temporarily moved out of the leadoff slot in May and recently endured an 0-for-28 slide that saw him stop talking to reporters and dropped his season average to .205.

B.J. Upton was on the verge of stardom in the 2008 postseason, collecting seven homers and 16 RBI in just 66 at-bats while powering the Tampa Bay Rays to their first World Series. This season, he has seven homers and 33 RBI in 331 at-bats and is batting just .239 with 99 strikeouts.

The Phils have been solid without much from Rollins, who has shown signs of snapping out of it. But the Rays need Upton to get hot if they want to keep pace in the AL East.

Expensive malfunctioning imports

In their never-ending battle for AL East supremacy, both the Yankees and Red Sox have spent millions on highly touted right-handers from the Far East. Both have seen their costly purchases run nicely before breaking down this season.

Taiwan's Chien-Ming Wang was 54-20 in his first four years but is just 1-6 with a 9.64 ERA this season while battling through a sore shoulder. The Yankees are 3-6 and minus $484 in his nine starts.

Japan's Daisuke Matsuzaka was 33-15 in his first two years but is just 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA, also battling shoulder woes. The Red Sox are 2-6 and minus $571 in his eight starts.

Both are on the DL, where they can't do bettors any damage.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants have five guys 30 or older in their starting lineup. Their No. 3 hitter has under 600 career at-bats. They are enduring a third straight poor season from their high-priced left-hander. Their 45-year-old starter is on the disabled list. Their closer has an ERA pushing 4.00.

And the Giants are 49-39 and hold the NL wild card spot.

With Pablo Sandoval providing some unlikely pop and Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain forming the best starter combo, the Giants have been a phenomenal wager overall ($1,068), at home ($1,367) and with the runline ($2,167).

If rookie Ryan Sadowski continues to provide innings and Jonathan Sanchez is jump-started by his no-hitter, the Giants could be postseason-bound.

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[Udog]

MLB


Thursday, July 16

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Tips and Trends
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Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers [10:10 PM ET]

Astros: The Houston Astros ended the first half of the season by capturing four of their last five games to reach the .500 mark (44-44). The late push allowed the club to climb to within 3 ½ games of the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals. The Astros took two of three games against the Dodgers during a home series in April. However, the lone loss occurred when Wandy Rodriquez, Thursday’s starter, was on the mound. The diminutive southpaw, who is 8-6 with a stellar 2.96 ERA, suffered the 2-0 setback despite allowing just one run on five hits in six innings spanning 106 pitches. Rodriquez walked two and fanned four as a $1.20 home underdog. During his last start prior to the All-Star break, Rodriquez tossed a complete-game five-hit shutout against the Pirates and fanned 11 batters in the process. The Astros are 12-6 in Rodriquez’ 18 starts this season.

Houston is 6-2 in its last eight trips to Los Angeles.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Dodgers (-$1.50 O/U 8): The Dodgers enter the season’s second half with baseball’s best record (56-32), best home record (28-13) and a fine 17-10 mark against southpaw starters. Joe Torre’s troops are also a nifty 18-9 in one-run games and 9-2 in extra innings. The Dodgers went 6-3 on a nine-game road trip prior to the break. Randy Wolf gets the ball in Thursday’s contest trying to improve on his 4-3 record with a 3.45 ERA. The 33-year-old lefty has faced the Astros once this season (April 22) but was not involved in the decision after allowing four runs on eight hits in seven innings. The Dodgers went on to lose that contest as a small road favorite, 6-5. The combined 11 runs leaped ‘over’ the nine-run closing total. The Dodgers are 9-3 in Wolf’s last 12 starts.

The Under has cashed in the Dodgers’ last 5 home games.

Key Injuries - Relief pitcher Jonathan Broxton (toe) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (Side of the Day)


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[Udog]

Len’s Top Five


Happy Thursday everyone, here's my Top 5 for July 16, 2009 from Len Berman Sports.

1. Quick Hits

The British Open is underway at sunny Turnberry in Scotland.
Manny Ramirez is sure to get a "heroes welcome" tonight in L.A. when he returns from his 50 game drug suspension.
It'll be the Boston Bruins vs. the Philadelphia Flyers at Fenway Park next January 1st. The latest NHL Winter Classic.
Brett Favre says he'll tell the Minnesota Vikings by July 30th if he plans to play for them. (Unless he changes his mind.)

2. Back to Basics

You gotta love a senior softball team on Long Island. According to Newsday they're putting together a video to show how to execute the basics of baseball. Things like touching all the bases when you're running, and how to catch simple popups. Then they're going to send the tape to the Mets. Their philosophy is simple. We understand the basics better than they do. Hard to argue.

3. The Honor System

There are plenty of golf courses in Scotland where you pay your greens fee into a locked box. There's nobody to collect the money, but since golf is a game of honor, you're expected to pay as you go. I'm not sure that would fly over here, but here's what I'd like to see. Sports fans pay on the way out, what they think the game was worth. Then we could pay athletes based on what they did. Basically a "pass the hat economy."

4. Cold Feet

Richard Jefferson was always the "go to guy" for the media when he played for the New Jersey Nets. Need someone to talk in complete sentences? Richard was your guy. Hell, he even showed up after a game for a live interview on TV with me wearing his bathrobe. You could always count on Jefferson. Until last weekend. He called off his expensive Manhattan wedding at the last minute. Some of his guests even showed up in town before they got the news. The shindig reportedly was costing $2-million. I guess the price was too high for a little "one on one."

5. What a Guy

Early candidate for Athlete of the Year: Gerhard Wilder of Germany. He blamed the beer twice. Once for causing him to fall into an open drain in the road. A second time for being unable to extricate himself from said hole, because of his beer belly. Gerhard pledges to go on a diet and swear off beer. Atta boy.

Happy Birthday: Former coach and current broadcaster Jimmy Johnson. 66.
Bonus Birthday: Actor Will Ferrell. 42.

Today in Sports: Joe DiMaggio gets a hit in his 56th consecutive game. His record streak would end the next day. 1941.
Bonus Event: Oklahoma City becomes the first city to use parking meters. 1935.

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Updated

American League

SEATTLE at CLEVELAND, 7:05 PM ET
OLSON: SEA 26-15 Over as a road underdog of +150 or more
LEE: 2-9 TSR vs. teams with winning records