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Prop bets are typically an easy defining line to show who is serious about gambling, and who is likely throwing their money away. I am not an advocate of props and very very rarely play them. I say this so you understand how strong I think this is tonight.
I went to several Nevada books today hoping specifically that they would be offering H2H matchup prop bets for the HR derby. I found the same set of 3 matchups at all 4 books, and I played max bets at each of the SBs.
Those matchups are as follows
PLAYER TO HIT MOST HRs in DERBY
Pena (-125,-130,-130) over Mauer
Cruz (-120, -125, -130) over Mauer
Inge (+120, +120, +110) over Mauer
Now, hear me out. Joe Mauer is a hell of a baseball player. But know this - he is in his sixth ML season and has a total of 59 HRs. He is also the franchise player for a small market team that CANNOT afford to have him alter his mechanics, risk an injury, swing for the fences.
He has had an amazing season, but he does not belong in this contest, and I think he will HAPPILY bow out in the first round. Have you ever seen this guy take BP? It is line drives to the gaps, line drives up the middle, and going the other way. He doesn't have a powerstroke, and he will not invent one for this contest. Unlike Cruz, or Pena, or Inge, he is already a fairly marketable player, with little upside to be gained here, and an approach to batting that is as NON-HR derby as you could get.
Again, I hate to jump in and advise to take the dreaded prop bets, and I know many of you must use offshore books which may or may not have such plays, but as soon as I heard JMauer was part of this, I was itching to pick against him.
To me, this would be like Ichiro joining the Derby. He runs into em every now and then, but this is simply not his game and not his style.
Good luck.
I went to several Nevada books today hoping specifically that they would be offering H2H matchup prop bets for the HR derby. I found the same set of 3 matchups at all 4 books, and I played max bets at each of the SBs.
Those matchups are as follows
PLAYER TO HIT MOST HRs in DERBY
Pena (-125,-130,-130) over Mauer
Cruz (-120, -125, -130) over Mauer
Inge (+120, +120, +110) over Mauer
Now, hear me out. Joe Mauer is a hell of a baseball player. But know this - he is in his sixth ML season and has a total of 59 HRs. He is also the franchise player for a small market team that CANNOT afford to have him alter his mechanics, risk an injury, swing for the fences.
He has had an amazing season, but he does not belong in this contest, and I think he will HAPPILY bow out in the first round. Have you ever seen this guy take BP? It is line drives to the gaps, line drives up the middle, and going the other way. He doesn't have a powerstroke, and he will not invent one for this contest. Unlike Cruz, or Pena, or Inge, he is already a fairly marketable player, with little upside to be gained here, and an approach to batting that is as NON-HR derby as you could get.
Again, I hate to jump in and advise to take the dreaded prop bets, and I know many of you must use offshore books which may or may not have such plays, but as soon as I heard JMauer was part of this, I was itching to pick against him.
To me, this would be like Ichiro joining the Derby. He runs into em every now and then, but this is simply not his game and not his style.
Good luck.
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