Saturday Trends and Indexes 7/11 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Saturday, 7/11/2009

National League

ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS, 4:10 PM ET
THOMPSON: STL 26-11 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5
LILLY: 37-15 TSR in home games

WASHINGTON at HOUSTON, 7:05 PM ET
STAMMEN: WAS 1-13 as a road underdog of +125 to +150
HAMPTON: 32-5 TSR as a home favorite of -150 to -175

LA DODGERS at MILWAUKEE, 7:05 PM ET
WEAVER: LAD 16-8 AWAY when the total is 8.5 to 10
BURNS: MIL 1-10 after bullpen blew a save

PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA, 7:05 PM ET
OHLENDORF: PIT 8-24 after 3+ consecutive road games
HAMELS: 9-1 OVER at home in July

CINCINNATI at NY METS, 7:10 PM ET
CUETO: CIN 16-6 UNDER after 4+ consecutive road games
SANTANA: 13-20 TSR when the money line is -100 to -150

FLORIDA at ARIZONA, 8:10 PM ET
WEST: FLA 11-2 OVER after allowing 7+ runs in BB games GARLAND: ARI 7-16 at home when the money line is +125 to -125

ATLANTA at COLORADO, 8:10 PM ET
JURRJENS: ATL 50-75 in road games
MARQUIS: 12-2 OVER against NL East

SAN DIEGO at SAN FRANCISCO, 9:05 PM ET
STAUFFER: SD 18-8 OVER AWAY against right-handed starters
CAIN: 12-22 TSR after a team win

American League

NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS, 4:10 PM ET
PETTITTE: 6-12 TSR in the second half of the season
WEAVER: LAA 24-10 in July

OAKLAND at TAMPA BAY, 6:08 PM ET
BRADEN: OAK 20-40 in July
GARZA: TB 17-4 at home on Saturday

CLEVELAND at DETROIT, 7:05 PM ET
PAVANO: CLE 17-6 AWAY after scoring 1 run or less
GALARRAGA: 2-9 TSR in night games

TORONTO at BALTIMORE, 7:05 PM ET
ROMERO: TOR 2-12 AWAY against division opponents
BERGESEN: BAL 7-0 at home after getting shut out

CHI WHITE SOX at MINNESOTA, 7:10 PM ET
FLOYD: 11-3 TSR after 2+ consecutive losses
PERKINS: MIN 94-66 OVER in night games

KANSAS CITY at BOSTON, 7:10 PM ET
MECHE: 10-4 TSR as a road underdog of +150 or more
SMOLTZ: BOS 35-16 OVER at home after a win by 2 runs or less

TEXAS at SEATTLE, 10:10 PM ET
MILLWOOD: TEX 18-8 when the total is 7 to 8.5
WASHBURN: 9-23 TSR in night games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

WNBA
Dunkel

Atlanta at New York
The Liberty look to bounce back from a 69-60 home loss to LA and build on their 23-9 ATS record in their last 32 games following an ATS loss. New York is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New York (-4). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 11

Game 651-652: Los Angeles at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 114.182; Washington 111.304
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 3; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+2 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: Detroit at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 107.650; Connecticut 115.301
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 7 1/2; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 6; 150
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-6); Over

Game 655-656: Atlanta at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 109.286; New York 115.711
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 6 1/2; 144 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4; 149
Dunkel Pick: New York (-4); Under

Game 657-658: Phoenix at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 115.611; Sacramento 112.399
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 170
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 173 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+1 1/2); Under




WNBA
Long Sheet

Saturday July 11

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LOS ANGELES (4 - 6) at WASHINGTON (5 - 5) - 7/11/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 165-212 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (2 - 7) at CONNECTICUT (5 - 5) - 7/11/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
CONNECTICUT is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 4-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 6-2 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (6 - 7) at NEW YORK (3 - 7) - 7/11/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) on Saturday games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 4-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (9 - 4) at SACRAMENTO (3 - 9) - 7/11/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1997.
SACRAMENTO is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-4 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 6-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Saturday, July 11

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Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bets
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Detroit Shock at Connecticut Sun (-6, 150)

You won’t find any Connecticut players in the top five in the league in rebounds, points or assists. But you will find the Sun in a tie for second place in the Eastern Conference standings.

By averaging 73.2 points per game and just 70.2 points per game against, the Sun have the second-best point differential in the conference. The Sun also posted a 95-95 overtime win over the Shock in Detroit on July 5.

Connecticut (5-5) was paced in the victory by backup center Sandrine Gruda, who scored 23 points in the win. Gruda missed the team’s first eight games while representing France in the European Championships.

Detroit (2-7) has lost its past two games and is 0-4 on the road this season.

Pick: Sun


Phoenix Mercury at Sacramento Monarchs (-2, 173)

The Mercury continue to rise.

Phoenix (9-4) has won three straight games by an average of nearly 16 points and up next for the top team in the Western Conference is a tussle with Sacramento (3-9). Looking at records, this game seems like a mismatch.

And in the team’s first meeting it was. The Monarchs blew out the Mercury, 90-70. Sacramento made only one more field goal than Phoenix, but dominated the boards, holding a 42-31 edge overall and a 17-10 advantage on the offensive glass.

Sacramento also has been playing better as of late before seeing its modest two-game win streak snapped with a loss to Seattle on Thursday.

The Monarchs are the league’s best rebounding team, but look for the Mercury to keep heating up.

Pick: Mercury

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[Udog]

CFL
Dunkel

Write-Up and Pick

Saskatchewan at Toronto
The Argonauts look to take advantage of a Saskatchewan team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games. Toronto is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Argonauts favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2 1/2).

[pm530]

MLB
Write-up

Updated with Umpire stats

Saturday, July 11

Hot Pitchers
-- Cubs won Lilly's last six home starts.
-- Hamels is 1-0, 2.14 in his last three home starts.
-- Hampton is 3-1, 1.97 in his last five starts, three of which came vs the Pirates.
-- Weaver is 2-0, 3.15 in four starts for the Dodgers.
-- Marquis is 2-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (17 IP).
-- Cain is 8-1, 2.37 in his last dizen starts.

-- Weaver is 6-1, 2.32 in nine home starts this season.
-- Braden is 2-2, 2.75 in his last six starts. Rays won six of last seven Garza home starts.
-- Pavano is 1-1, 2.63 in his last couple starts. Galarraga is 2-0, 2.79 in his last three outings.
-- Romero is 4-0, 1.59 in his last four starts. Bergesen is 3-1, 2.47 in his last six starts.
-- Floyd is 2-1, 2.65 in his last five starts, but White Sox lost six of his last seven road outings. Perkins is 2-0, 1.29 in his last two starts.
-- Washburn is 2-1, 2.45 in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Cardinals were outscored 26-2 in Thompson's last three starts (0-3, 7.88).
-- Stammen is 0-2, 5.60 in his last three starts.
-- Cueto is 2-2, 9.26 in his last five starts; he allowed nine runs in less than an inning in his last outing. Santana is 1-4, 6.23 in last five starts.
-- Ohlendorf is 1-5, 7.27 in his last seven road starts.
-- Burns is 1-2, 6.88 in three starts for Milwaukee.
-- Jurrjens is 1-5, 4.46 in his last seven starts.
-- Garland is 0-6, 5.37 in his last nine starts. West is 2-2, 6.58 in his last five outings.
-- Stauffer is 4-7, 6.37 in 17 major league starts; he was

-- Pettitte is 1-1, 7.56 in his last three starts.
-- Smoltz is 0-2, 6.60 in three starts this season. Meche is 0-3, 8.10 in his last four starts.
-- Millwood is 1-2, 6.66 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won seven of their last nine games.
-- Phillies won seven of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers are 16-8 in their last 24 road games.
-- Astros are 18-9 in their last 27 home games.
-- Rockies won 15 of their last 20 home games. Braves won three of their last four games.
-- Giants are 18-6 in their last 24 home games.

-- Tigers won nine of their last ten home games.
-- Red Sox won their last three games, allowing six runs.
-- Rays won 20 of their last 23 home games.
-- Bronx Bombers won 13 of their last 16 games.
-- White Sox won eight of their last ten road games.
-- Rangers won eight of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost their last three games, scoring total of five runs.
-- Pirates lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Reds lost eleven of their last sixteen road games. Mets lost 11 of their last 16 home games.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Nationals lost 23 of their last 27 road games.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last thirteen home games. Marlins lost eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Padres lost nine of their last ten games.

-- Blue Jays lost eight of their last 11 road games. Orioles lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Oakland lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Royals are 8-20 in their last 28 road games.
-- Indians lost 17 of their last 22 games.
-- Minnesota lost three of its last four games, allowing 24 runs.
-- Angels are just 5-5 in their last ten games.
-- Mariners lost three of their last four games.

Totals
-- Under is 8-4 in Cubs' last twelve games.
-- Eight of Phillies' last ten home games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Cueto starts went over the total.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in Dodgers' last nine road games.
-- Under is 9-3-2 in last fourteen games at Minute Maid Park.
-- Ten of last thirteen Atlanta road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 12-5-1 in Arizona's last eighteen home games.
-- Six of San Diego's last nine games went over the total.

-- Under is 15-7 in Detroit's last 22 home games.
-- Four of last five Bergesen starts went over the total.
-- Under is 16-6-1 in last twenty-three games at Fenway Park.
-- Last six Oakland road games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Perkins starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Angel home games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-4 in Seattle's last fifteen home games.

Umpires
-- StL-Chi-- Underdog won four of last seven Hernandez games.
-- Wsh-Hst-- Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Culbreth games.
-- LA-Mil-- Eight of last eleven Kellogg games stayed under the total.
-- Pitt-Phil-- Six of last eight Gibson games went over the total.
-- Cin-NY-- Under is 13-6-1 in last twenty Hoye games.
-- Fla-Az-- Over is 10-2 in last twelve Cooper games.
-- Atl-Colo--Favorite won last five Nauert games.
-- SD-SF-- Road team is 8-4 in last twelve Hallion games.

-- NY-LA-- Home team won 11 of last 12 Everitt games.
-- A's-TB-- Underdog is 7-4 in last twelve Nelson games.
-- Clev-Det-- Under is 8-3-1 in last dizen Bell games.
-- Tor-Balt-- Home team won nine of last eleven Dimuro games.
-- Chi-Minn-- Four of last five Hohn games stayed under the total.
-- KC-Bos-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Tichenor games.
-- Tex-Sea-- Underdog won five of last six Reliford games.

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