Wednesday Trends and Indexes 7/1 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

[pm530]

MLB


Wednesday, July 1

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Hot lines: Today’s best MLB bets
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Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-110, 9.5)

The last time the Los Angeles Angels visited Rangers Ballpark in Arlington in the middle of May, they were handed a three-game sweep by Texas. They are a very different team this time.

After the series finale May 17, the Angels were 5-10 on the road. Since then, they are 17-7 away from home, building the best overall road record in the American League.

Los Angeles has won seven straight road games, including Monday’s series opener. It has scored 52 runs during the road streak while allowing three runs or less in five of those games.

“We can beat you in a lot of ways with our offense," sparkplug Chone Figgins told the team’s web site. "We can apply pressure with our speed and aggressiveness on the bases, and we can go deep, too."

The Angels, who have won six in a row overall, also should get a boost from Jered Weaver, who has won his last three road starts.

Pick: Los Angeles



Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-120, 9.5)

The Cleveland Indians have lost 11 of their last 13 games, and poor pitching is the primary reason.

During their slide, the Indians have given up six or more runs 10 times, losing every one of those games. Overall, Cleveland is allowing nearly seven runs per contest.

It would be understandable if the Indians were taking their beatings from the top-hitting clubs like the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Devil Rays or Boston Red Sox. But the teams pounding Cleveland have been otherwise punchless – the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and now the Chicago White Sox.

Jeremy Sowers starts for the Indians, and he has taken a few poundings, too. Cleveland has lost seven of his last nine starts.

Pick: Chicago

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[pm530]

MLB


Wednesday, July 1

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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
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Streaking

Brad Bergesen (Baltimore Orioles)[/b]

The rookie righthander has been extremely tough at Oriole Park, showing uncommon poise that will help as he matches up with Boston’s Josh Beckett.

In Bergesen’s last start, he hung around for six innings to get the win over Washington, allowing one run and four hits even though he did not have anywhere near his best stuff.

"He struggled to get through it,” manager Dave Trembley told the team’s web site. “You saw so many three-ball counts early in the game, which was really uncharacteristic of him. But it was a step up and pitch your butt off when he needed it, and he did.”

The win gave Bergesen a 5-1 mark with a 3.10 ERA at home. He is 3-0 in his last four starts at Camden Yards.

Ricky Romero (Toronto Blue Jays)

With Toronto’s rotation in shambles, Romero has stepped up to provide some stability behind ace Roy Halladay.

In five July starts, he pitched at least into the seventh inning in each one, surrendering no more than three earned runs. He averaged nearly a strikeout per inning and went 3-1, with his only loss a 1-0 setback to Kansas City.

The lefthander has pitched 12 straight scoreless innings.

Yovani Gallardo (Milwaukee Brewers)

With a little better support from his free-swinging lineup, Gallardo could have won his last seven starts.

Instead, the righthander is 4-2 in that stretch, with no decision despite eight scoreless innings vs. St. Louis. He has allowed no more than three earned runs and racked up 52 strikeouts in 46 innings.

Having faced Chris Carpenter, Justin Verlander and Matt Cain in that span, he catches a break and opposes Mike Pelfrey rather than Mets ace Johan Santana.


Slumping

Jon Garland (Arizona Diamondbacks)

With no decision in his last two starts, Garland is almost streaking by his standards.

The righthander had lost his previous five starts. The Diamondbacks have lost his last seven starts.

The gory details: 48 hits, 20 walks, 25 earned runs, zero wins. His season ERA of 5.04 would be his worst since his rookie season.

Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves)

Jurrjens attributed his winless June to “bad luck.” And while he pitched better than his record would suggest, the Braves lost every one of his five starts.

The righthander can point to his teammates managing just 10 runs in those games and the four unearned runs in his last two outings. Detractors will note that Jurrjens has allowed 30 hits and 11 walks in 29 1-3 innings.

“Bad luck” may be matching up Jurrjens with Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels. But it’s more than “bad luck” when you have won just once in your last seven home starts.

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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Boston at Baltimore
The Red Sox look to bounce back after last night's 11-10 loss and build on their 8-2 record in Josh Beckett's last 10 starts after their opponent scores 5 or more runs in their previous game. Boston is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 1

Game 901-902: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.499; Florida (Johnson) 14.936
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Florida (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+165); Under

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 13.867; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.315
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-220); Under

Game 905-906: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 16.302; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.167
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Over

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 15.680; Pittsburgh (Vasquez) 14.139
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-140); Over

Game 909-910: Arizona at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Garland) 14.010; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.161
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-165); Over

Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.942; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.850
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105); Under

Game 913-914: San Francisco at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.330; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.060
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Under

Game 915-916: Houston at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 15.233; San Diego (Silva) 14.839
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-130); Over

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.781; Toronto (Romero) 16.143
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Over

Game 919-920: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 16.654; Baltimore (Bergeson) 14.992
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Under

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 15.184; Kansas City (Meche) 14.437
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over

Game 923-924: Detroit at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.781; Oakland (Braden) 15.668
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+125); Under

Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Contreras) 15.365; Cleveland (Sowers) 14.121
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Under

Game 927-928: Seattle at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 15.790; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.986
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Over

Game 929-930: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.062; Texas (Millwood) 14.789
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Under

[flashypants]

thx pm

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Wednesday, 7/1/2009

National League

WASHINGTON at FLORIDA, 12:10 PM ET
ZIMMERMANN: WAS 6-28 after one or more consecutive overs
JOHNSON: 14-1 TSR against division opponents

NY METS at MILWAUKEE, 2:05 PM ET
PELFREY: NYM 2-9 AWAY against NL Central
GALLARDO: MIL 13-4 OVER at home in July

COLORADO at LA DODGERS, 3:10 PM ET
HAMMEL: COL 12-7 as a road underdog of +125 to +175
KERSHAW: LAD 13-4 UNDER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

CHICAGO CUBS at PITTSBURGH, 7:05 PM ET
WELLS: CHC 0-7 after scoring 1 or less runs in a division loss
VASQUEZ: PIT 13-6 at home after 3+ consecutive home games

ARIZONA at CINCINNATI, 7:10 PM ET
GARLAND: ARI 17-33 when the total is 8.5 to 10
CUETO: CIN 12-1 after a loss by 4+ runs

PHILADELPHIA at ATLANTA, 7:10 PM ET
HAMELS: PHI 10-2 AWAY with a money line of -100 to -125
JURRJENS: ATL 5-12 after BB team wins

SAN FRANCISCO at ST LOUIS, 8:15 PM ET
CAIN: 11-4 TSR in all games
WAINWRIGHT: STL 0-7 revenging BB home losses

HOUSTON at SAN DIEGO, 10:05 PM ET
MOEHLER: HOU 13-5 against NL West
SILVA: SD 21-9 OVER after having won 3 of their last 4

American League

TAMPA BAY at TORONTO, 1:07 PM ET
SHIELDS: TB 22-7 as a favorite of -125 to -175
ROMERO: TOR 2-11 after scoring 1 run or less

BOSTON at BALTIMORE, 1:35 PM ET
BECKETT: 13-1 TSR as a road favorite of -125 to -150
BERGESEN: BAL 13-33 after scoring 8+ runs

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY, 2:10 PM ET
PERKINS: MIN 10-2 UNDER AWAY after 2+ consecutive unders
MECHE: 1-7 TSR when the money line is -100 to -150

DETROIT at OAKLAND, 3:35 PM ET
VERLANDER: DET 15-5 against AL West
BRADEN: OAK 17-35 in July

CHI WHITE SOX at CLEVELAND, 7:05 PM ET
CONTRERAS: CHW 18-6 after scoring 10+ runs
SOWERS: 8-20 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10

SEATTLE at NY YANKEES, 7:05 PM ET
WASHBURN: 19-9 UNDER after one or more consecutive overs
PETTITTE: 5-11 TSR in the second half of the season

LA ANGELS at TEXAS, 8:05 PM ET
WEAVER: LAA 19-6 in July
MILLWOOD: TEX 11-1 UNDER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

MLB


Wednesday, July 1

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Tips and Trends
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds [7:10 PM ET]

Diamondbacks: Injuries, the fourth-lowest batting average in baseball and terrible defense have contributed to the Diamondbacks owning the second-worst record in the National League, while losing eight of their last 10 games. Arizona has struggled in Cincinnati losing six of the past eight times to the Reds on the road. Some help is on the way as first baseman Chad Tracy was activated off the DL and is slated to start at first base. Jon Garland (4-7, 5.04 ERA) gets the start. Arizona is 0-8 in Garland’s last eight starts. The last time Garland won was May 19. He wasn’t sharp in his last outing, allowing six runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings in what turned out to be a 9-8 loss to Texas. Garland has been much better on the road with a 2-3 mark and 2.60 ERA compared to 2-4 with a 7.51 ERA at home.

The Under is 17-7-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 26 games as a road underdog.
The Under is 5-1-1 in Garland’s past seven road starts.

Key Injuries - Eric Byrnes (hand) is on the DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Reds (-$1.60, O/U 8.5): The Reds are hoping that Johnny Cueto (7-4, 2.86 ERA) can return to his earlier form. Cueto has given up 10 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings against the White Sox and Blue Jays. During this span, he’s allowed 15 hits and been rocked for four home runs. In his previous three starts, the right-hander had yielded just two earned runs in 17 2/3 innings and only one home run. Cueto has pitched well this season at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. He’s 6-2 at home with a 2.14 ERA. Cueto has faced Arizona twice in his career. He is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts versus the Diamondbacks. The under is 41-13-5 (76 percent) in the last 59 meetings between the two clubs. The under is 24-4-4 in the last 32 meetings between the teams in Cincinnati.

The Under is 21-10-1 in Cueto’s last 32 starts.

Key Injuries - Alex Gonzalez (elbow) and Edwin Encarnacion (wrist) are on the DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)



Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers [8:05 PM ET]

Angels: A key question is have the Angels lost their momentum after surrendering five homers to the Rangers in Tuesday’s 9-5 loss? Los Angeles had won their previous seven road contests and 13 of their past 16 overall games before Tuesday’s defeat. They’ll turn to right-hander Jered Weaver (8-3, 2.65 ERA). The Angels have won six of Weaver’s last seven starts. The under is 6-0-1 in Weaver’s last seven starts versus the Rangers. Weaver has been solid nearly the entire season holding opponents to three runs or fewer in 12 of 15 starts. Weaver has been better at home than on the road where he’s 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA compared to 5-1 with a 1.83 ERA at Angel Stadium. Weaver will be dealing with an over-the-total home plate umpire in Tim McClelland. The over is 10-4-2 the last 16 times McClelland has been behind the plate.

The Under is 7-2-1 in Weaver’s last 10 starts.
The Angels are 39-14 in their last 53 during Game 3 of a series.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Rangers (-$1.10, O/U 9.5 under -$1.25): Going into June 30, the Rangers were batting a major-league low .221 for June. Texas has dropped eight of its last 12 games. The Rangers are 18-5 in their last 23 games versus American League West teams. Texas starter Kevin Millwood (8-5, 2.64) is having a nice season. He’s been very effective at home going 6-1 with a 2.17 ERA, compared to 2-4 with a 3.22 ERA on the road. The Rangers have won 19 of his last 27 home starts. Millwood held San Diego to two runs on four hits in six innings Friday in a 12-2 home victory. It was his sixth quality start in a row. Millwood has averaged 114 pitches during this span, which could take a toll later when the weather really turns hot and humid in Arlington. The under is 21-6-1 in the Rangers’ last 28 games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

The Under is 11-2-1 in Millwood’s last 14 home starts and 20-6-2 in Millwood’s last 28 starts overall.

Key Injuries - Josh Hamilton (abdominal) is on the DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (UNDER - Total of the Day)


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[Udog]

WNBA
Dunkel


Seattle at Phoenix
The Mercury look to build on their 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 home games. Phoenix is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 1

Game 651-652: Seattle at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 113.171; Phoenix 119.054
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 169 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 173 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-2 1/2); Under




WNBA
Long Sheet

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Wednesday, July 1
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SEATTLE (6 - 3) at PHOENIX (6 - 4) - 7/1/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 111-83 ATS (+19.7 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
PHOENIX is 119-84 ATS (+26.6 Units) in home games since 1997.
PHOENIX is 77-51 ATS (+20.9 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1997.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 7-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 6-4 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WNBA

Wednesday, July 1

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Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bet
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Seattle Storm at Phoenix Mercury (-2, 174)

The Phoenix Mercury score points – and give them up - almost as well as their NBA brothers.

Those longing for the “Seven Seconds or Less” offense should check out the Mercury (6-4), who average 90.4 points in games eight minutes shorter than NBA contests. Phoenix also surrenders 89.7 points per game. The over is 8-2 in Phoenix’s games.

Already this season, the Mercury have set a league record with 115 points vs. Sacramento on June 13. Two weeks later, they nearly allowed Minnesota to break their record by giving up 109 points.

Phoenix has five players averaging double figures, including Diana Taurasi (21.1 ppg) and Cappie Pondexter (20.4), who rank second and fourth in the league in scoring.

The duo will be trying to topple Lauren Jackson, the center for the Storm (6-3) who leads the league at 22.8 points and racked up 25 in Seattle’s 93-84 win at Phoenix on June 21.

Pick: Over

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[Udog]

Len's Top 5


Happy Wednesday everyone, here's my Top 5 for July 1, 2009 from Len Berman Sports.

1. Quick Hits

The NBA free agent season began at 12:01 this morning. The real frenzy begins one year from today when LeBron James and other big stars become available.
The Wimbledon women's semis are set: (1) Dinara Safina vs. (3) Venus Williams. (2) Serena Williams vs. (4) Elena Dementieva. The top 4 seeds all made it, not unusual in women's tennis.
In hockey news, the New York Rangers unloaded Scott Gomez, their biggest contract, in a trade with Montreal.
The Baltimore Orioles trailed the Red Sox 10-1 in the 7th inning and won 11-10. It was the biggest comeback in Orioles history.
The Atlanta Braves gobbled up Philadelphia 5-4 in 10 innings. The Braves are 7 and 0 when Jeff Francoeur wears his lucky turkey underwear. Honest.

2. Sound Machines

They're all making noise. The former champs are sounding off. They say the racket has got to stop. All the grunting and shrill sounds emanating from many of the young women players. Chris Evert says it's getting worse and she points out it seems to be louder when they hit a winner. Chris said you never heard a peep out of Steffi Graf and she hit the ball a ton. Martina Navratilova takes it further. She calls it cheating.
Just wondering why screeching is such a woman thing? The men stay mum.

3. Crime and Punishment

Yahoo Sports has some bad news for Plaxico Burress and Michael Vick. They're reporting that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is leaning toward playing the tough guy with both of them. He'll probably suspend Burress indefinitely, and continue Vick's suspension. I have mixed feelings. Vick has paid his debt to society, so I'm not so sure he deserves double jeopardy. As for getting tough with Burress, what's taken him so long?

4. Show-time

The New York Times pointed out the other day how Michael Jackson changed Super Bowl halftimes forever. Before he showed up in 1993, they were snores. Then Michael sang "Billie Jean," grabbed his crotch a few times and the rest is history. Three years later I was in Tempe when Diana Ross played halftime. After she was whisked away from the stage by helicopter, she took the same red-eye back to New York that I did. When she walked onto the plane she received an ovation. All night long she tended to her kids. She didn't leave it to a nanny. I thought that was a pretty impressive show in itself.

5. Yay or Nay?

There's this TV commercial for a casino at a racetrack. The woman on stage is singing "bring it on." There's a horse in the audience singing along. She signals to the horse with her fingers "call me." Subscriber Eric S. couldn't believe it. He was watching the Yankee game when the commercial came on, and he wondered "did they really just show a woman trying to get it on with a horse?"
Can't wait for the sequel.

Happy Birthday: Track star Carl Lewis. 48.
Bonus Birthday: Actress Pamela Anderson. 42. That's her age, wiseguy.

Today in Sports: Nevada Athletic Commission suspends Mike Tyson for biting off Evander Holyfield's ear. Picky picky. 1997.
Bonus Event: The price of a NYC subway ride was jacked up to double the fare. From a nickle to a dime. 1948.