Tracking Something in MLB (no real plays inside)

[frankb03]

Since 2007 blindly playing all dogs on the ML would have returned a nice profit.

821-941 +3520

Of the 821 home dog wins 303 or 36.9% are by 1 run

It's of my opinion and the opinion of others never lay -1.5 with the home team. Although, I don't have ARLs playing Home dogs on the ARL and laying 1.5 runs is probably suicide. Too many games end with 1 run victories. Once again, the home team doesn't bat the bottom of the 9th if winning.

[mavskidd02]

Yeah, I hate the -1.5 on home teams as well. Just something I'm looking at. I'm not just using home dogs, I am using all dogs. But if the home dogs aren't winning, I may drop them and just use road dogs on the ARL. Gonna' see how it works out.

At the start of the season I was using ARL parlays, putting big favorites together while getting 1.5, it was working out well, but profits started to tail off so I ditched it. Thought I'd see how this works, because of all the ways you can play a baseball game, this way offers you the biggest return without having to parlay. Even if these games hit between 30-40 %, it has a good chance to be profitable.

Thanks a lot for the info Frank.

[frankb03]

ML Away Dogs 1659-2361 -10,825
RL Away Dogs 2330-1645 -20,350

The RL juice is too prohibitive.

Of the 2361 away dog losses 714 or 30.2% are by 1 run.

[mavskidd02]

ML Away Dogs 1659-2361 -10,825
RL Away Dogs 2330-1645 -20,350

The RL juice is too prohibitive.

Of the 2361 away dog losses 714 or 30.2% are by 1 run.

This is what amazes me. RL away dogs, hitting at 59% and still 20,000 in the red. With something like what I'm doing, I don't even need to hit 40% to get a profit. Because every loser, loses 100, and every winner wins 200-300. It's just a matter of whether or not something like this can actually get to around 35%. Which I don't know.

But the stats you have, just proves the point, that laying juice consistently, eventually breaks you.

[mavskidd02]

Yesterday: 4-11 (-2.03 units)

Total: 8-35 (-18.47 units)

[mavskidd02]

Sat 6/27 901 San Francisco Giants
B. Zito -1.5 +200
04:05 PM 902 Milwaukee Brewers
S.McClung +1.5 -220

Sat 6/27 903 Philadelphia Phillies
J. Happ +1.5 -225
10:05 AM 904 Toronto Blue Jays
B. Mills -1.5 +205

Sat 6/27 905 Minnesota Twins
K. Slowey +1.5 -240
10:10 AM 906 St Louis Cardinals
T. Wellemeyer -1.5 +220

Sat 6/27 907 Chicago Cubs
R. Dempster -1.5 +178
01:05 PM 908 Chicago White Sox
M. Buehrle +1.5 -191

Sat 6/27 909 Boston Red Sox
T. Wakefield -1.5 +220
01:10 PM 910 Atlanta Braves
J. Vazquez +1.5 -240

Sat 6/27 911 LAA Angels
J. Lackey +1.5 -240
01:10 PM 912 Arizona D-Backs
D. Davis -1.5 +220

Sat 6/27 913 Washington Nationals
S. Martis -1.5 +240
04:05 PM 914 Baltimore Orioles
J. Guthrie +1.5 -260

Sat 6/27 915 Florida Marlins
C. Volstad -1.5 +210
04:05 PM 916 Tampa Bay Rays
S. Kazmir +1.5 -230

Sat 6/27 917 Cincinnati Reds
H. Bailey -1.5 +183
04:05 PM 918 Cleveland Indians
T. Ohka +1.5 -201

Sat 6/27 919 Detroit Tigers
A. Figaro +1.5 -210
04:05 PM 920 Houston Astros
F. Paulino -1.5 +190

Sat 6/27 921 Kansas City Royals
B. Chen -1.5 +210
04:05 PM 922 Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Maholm +1.5 -230

Sat 6/27 923 New York Yankees
A. Burnett +1.5 -340
04:10 PM 924 New York Mets
T. Redding -1.5 +310

Sat 6/27 925 San Diego Padres
K. Correia -1.5 +200
05:05 PM 926 Texas Rangers
D. Holland +1.5 -220

Sat 6/27 927 Colorado Rockies
J. De La Rosa -1.5 +190
06:05 PM 928 Oakland Athletics
T. Cahill +1.5 -210

Sat 6/27 929 Seattle Mariners
F. Hernandez +1.5 -275
07:10 PM 930 Los Angeles Dodgers
E. Milton -1.5 +255

[mavskidd02]

Yesterday: 5-10 (-0.17 units)

Total: 13-45 (-18.64 units)

Yesterday, hit 33%, and broke even.

[mavskidd02]

Sun 6/28 951 San Francisco Giants
R. Sadowski -1.5 +225
11:05 AM 952 Milwaukee Brewers
J. Suppan +1.5 -245

Sun 6/28 953 Cincinnati Reds
M. Owings -1.5 +226
10:05 AM 954 Cleveland Indians
D. Huff +1.5 -246

Sun 6/28 955 Philadelphia Phillies
J. Moyer -1.5 +204
10:05 AM 956 Toronto Blue Jays
B. Tallet +1.5 -224

Sun 6/28 957 New York Yankees
C. Wang +1.5 -275
05:05 PM 958 New York Mets
L. Hernandez -1.5 +255

Sun 6/28 959 Boston Red Sox
B. Penny -1.5 +156
10:35 AM 960 Atlanta Braves
T. Hanson +1.5 -166

Sun 6/28 961 Kansas City Royals
Z. Greinke +1.5 -335
10:35 AM 962 Pittsburgh Pirates
C. Morton -1.5 +305

Sun 6/28 963 Florida Marlins
A. Miller -1.5 +245
10:35 AM 964 Tampa Bay Rays
D. Price +1.5 -265

Sun 6/28 965 Washington Nationals
J. Lannan -1.5 +183
10:35 AM 966 Baltimore Orioles
D. Hernandez +1.5 -201

Sun 6/28 967 Detroit Tigers
E. Jackson +1.5 -280
11:05 AM 968 Houston Astros
R. Ortiz -1.5 +260

Sun 6/28 969 Chicago Cubs
C. Zambrano -1.5 +160
11:05 AM 970 Chicago White Sox
J. Danks +1.5 -170

Sun 6/28 971 Minnesota Twins
F. Liriano -1.5 +192
11:15 AM 972 St Louis Cardinals
J. Pineiro +1.5 -212

Sun 6/28 973 Colorado Rockies
A. Cook -1.5 +175
01:05 PM 974 Oakland Athletics
V. Mazzaro +1.5 -185

Sun 6/28 975 Seattle Mariners
G. Olson -1.5 +270
01:10 PM 976 Los Angeles Dodgers
H. Kuroda +1.5 -300

Sun 6/28 977 LAA Angels
M. Palmer -1.5 +200
01:10 PM 978 Arizona D-Backs
M. Scherzer +1.5 -220

Sun 6/28 979 San Diego Padres
C. Gaudin -1.5 +195
05:05 PM 980 Texas Rangers
T HUNTER +1.5 -215

[mavskidd02]

Yesterday: 8-7 (+9.66 units)

Total: 21-52 (-8.98 units)

[mavskidd02]

Mon 6/29 901 Chicago Cubs
R. Harden +1.5 -231
04:05 PM 902 Pittsburgh Pirates
Z. Duke -1.5 +211

Mon 6/29 903 Washington Nationals
S. Olsen -1.5 +265
04:10 PM 904 Florida Marlins
R. Nolasco +1.5 -285

Mon 6/29 905 New York Mets
F. Nieve -1.5 +190
04:05 PM 906 Milwaukee Brewers
B. Looper +1.5 -210

Mon 6/29 907 San Francisco Giants
T. Lincecum +1.5 -266
05:15 PM 908 St Louis Cardinals
B. Thompson -1.5 +246

Mon 6/29 909 Houston Astros
R. Oswalt +1.5 -320
07:05 PM 910 San Diego Padres
J. Geer -1.5 +290

Mon 6/29 911 Colorado Rockies
U. Jimenez -1.5 +171
07:10 PM 912 Los Angeles Dodgers
R. Wolf +1.5 -181

Mon 6/29 913 Chicago White Sox
G. Floyd +1.5 -201
04:05 PM 914 Cleveland Indians
C. Pavano -1.5 +183

Mon 6/29 915 Boston Red Sox
J. Lester +1.5 -320
04:05 PM 916 Baltimore Orioles
J. Berken -1.5 +290

Mon 6/29 917 Tampa Bay Rays
J. Niemann -1.5 +220
04:05 PM 918 Toronto Blue Jays
R. Halladay +1.5 -240

Mon 6/29 919 LAA Angels
S. O' Sullivan -1.5 +183
05:05 PM 920 Texas Rangers
V. Padilla +1.5 -201

Mon 6/29 921 Minnesota Twins
N. Blackburn +1.5 -250
05:10 PM 922 Kansas City Royals
L. Hochevar -1.5 +230

Mon 6/29 923 Detroit Tigers
R. Porcello +1.5 -215
07:05 PM 924 Oakland Athletics
B. Anderson -1.5 +195

[mavskidd02]

Yesterday: 4-8 (+ .28 units)

Total: 25-60 (-8.70 units)

Hit 33% with profit again. Interesting.

[mavskidd02]

Tue 6/30 951 Chicago Cubs
T. Lilly +1.5 -260
04:05 PM 952 Pittsburgh Pirates
R. Ohlendorf -1.5 +240

Tue 6/30 953 Arizona D-Backs
D. Haren +1.5 -280
04:10 PM 954 Cincinnati Reds
B. Arroyo -1.5 +260

Tue 6/30 955 Washington Nationals
C. Stammen -1.5 +195
04:10 PM 956 Florida Marlins
S. West +1.5 -215

Tue 6/30 957 Philadelphia Phillies
J. Blanton -1.5 +183
04:10 PM 958 Atlanta Braves
D. Lowe +1.5 -201

Tue 6/30 959 New York Mets
JO. Santana +1.5 -275
05:05 PM 960 Milwaukee Brewers
M. Burns -1.5 +255

Tue 6/30 961 San Francisco Giants
R. Johnson -1.5 +290
05:15 PM 962 St Louis Cardinals
C. Carpenter +1.5 -320

Tue 6/30 963 Houston Astros
M. Hampton -1.5 +169
07:05 PM 964 San Diego Padres
J. Banks +1.5 -179

Tue 6/30 965 Colorado Rockies
J. Marquis -1.5 +260
07:10 PM 966 Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley +1.5 -280

Tue 6/30 967 Seattle Mariners
B Morrow -1.5 +330
04:05 PM 968 New York Yankees
J. Chamberlain +1.5 -360

Tue 6/30 969 Chicago White Sox
C. Richard -1.5 +270
04:05 PM 970 Cleveland Indians
C. Lee +1.5 -300

Tue 6/30 971 Tampa Bay Rays
M. Garza +1.5 -250
04:05 PM 972 Toronto Blue Jays
S. Richmond -1.5 +230

Tue 6/30 973 Boston Red Sox
J. Smoltz +1.5 -235
04:05 PM 974 Baltimore Orioles
R. Hill -1.5 +215

Tue 6/30 975 LAA Angels
J. Saunders -1.5 +164
05:05 PM 976 Texas Rangers
S. Feldman +1.5 -174

Tue 6/30 977 Minnesota Twins
S. Baker +1.5 -280
05:10 PM 978 Kansas City Royals
B. Bannister -1.5 +260

Tue 6/30 979 Detroit Tigers
A. Galarraga +1.5 -210
07:05 PM 980 Oakland Athletics
G. Gonzalez -1.5 +190

[bryce]

I have to ask--how are you picking these---1.5 or +1.5?? Maybe you already stated that..Just looking through this I don't understand but I am high and drunk~~ just kidding neither at all just trying to see what you are doing.

[mavskidd02]

I have to ask--how are you picking these---1.5 or +1.5?? Maybe you already stated that..Just looking through this I don't understand but I am high and drunk~~ just kidding neither at all just trying to see what you are doing.

They are Alternate Run Lines.

So the team (underdog) that is usually getting (+1.5) is now giving the (-1.5) (now the favorite). An underdog LAYING 1.5 gets back very good odds. +200 or so on average.

Example for tonight: Washington is an underdog (+130) and on the RL they are +1.5 (-155)

-But on the Alternate. Pittsburgh is -1.5 (+240). Harder to win, but there is value if it does come through.

I am just testing the value of these ARL's as a whole.

[mavskidd02]

Yesterday: 5-9 (+4.15 units)

Total: 30-69 (-4.55 units)