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**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2009, 12:49 AM

Belmont Stakes - Breakdown

141st BELMONT STAKES
Post Horse Trainer/Jockey Bottom Line

1 Chocolate Candy
Jerry Hollendorfer
Garrett Gomez Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer hated his trip in the Derby, but so did almost everyone else. It's the Derby, bad trips happen all the time. Figures to take plenty of action with Gomez climbing aboard but I really think the distance is beyond his scope.

2 Dunkirk
Todd Pletcher
John Velazquez I've been a HUGE fan of this guy since the day he broke his maiden. Would have won the Florida Derby if it wasn't for a jazzed up course. I can't believe the Derby is indicative of what this colt truly has to offer. I'm glad to see Prado off and Johnny V on. Velazquez fits his style perfectly while Prado has been slumping badly. I also like the karma factor as this scenario is the exact one that played out two years ago when Rags to Riches won this for these guys. Figures to be lying in a perfect spot early on and is one of just a few that figures to relish the added distance. I think he's ready to run the race of his life.

3 Mr. Hot Stuff
Eoin Harty
Edgar Prado I talked myself into using this horse in the bottom of my exotics on Derby Day and wound up wasting more money than I should have. He didn't have the best trip and was stuck with a bad inside post but he still never fired. I don't like the fact that Harty has worked him solely over synthetics leading up to the Belmont and think he may be a cut below these. With all that said, I think he may be one of the few that will actually handle the added distance so he rates a chance at a minor award, but nothing more.

4 Summer Bird
Tim Ice
Ken Sesormeaux Can't say I'm thrilled with the work tab and trainer Tim Ice changed the colts' shoes in his last work because he didn't think he was taking to the track, which is a terrible sign. He's one of those that doesn't really excite me, though he might be able to take advantage of the fact that most of these probably don't want to go this far. He'll be moving late but will need the others to be backing up to have any chance at getting a share.

5 Luv Gov
D. Wayne Lukas
Miguel Mena Lukas said before the Preakness that this was the race that figured to suit this colt best. The truth of the matter is and entry level allowance race or a high priced claimer might be asking too much at this point.

6 Charitable Man
Kiaran McLaughlin
Alan Garcia There is a serious debate as to whether or not this horse will be on the lead or sitting second. I'm of the belief he'll sit off Miner's Escape but I could be wrong. Regardless, he'll have first jump on the other top names in here and should be in front at some point. The question is, how long will he stay there? McLaughlin has been awfully confident this week but I think the lack of seasoning is going to ultimately be his undoing as far as winning the whole thing. Should last for a share.

7 Mine That Bird
Chip Woolley Jr.
Calvin Borel After another couple of weeks of playing the waiting game, Borel is back aboard and everyone is overwhelmed with joy. I guess I didn't get the memo that Borel was the best jockey in the land. Yes, he gave this gelding a great ride in the Derby but how about we give the horse some credit as well? The funny thing is I think Borel is actually going to cost this horse the Belmont because he'll keep him closer than he should be and will likely use some of his energy early. You can't throw him out but it is highly unlikely that he'll win.

8 Flying Private
D. Wayne Lukas
Julian Leparoux Along with Mine That Bird, he'll be the only other horse to contest all three legs of this seasons' Triple Crown. Why, I don't know. Did close well in Preakness, but maybe that took too much out of him and finished him off. I guess he has a chance to grab a minor share but so do a few others.

9 Miner's Escape
Nick Zito
Jose Lezcano While most think Charitable Man will set the pace I think this guy will be the one on the engine. The problem is, unlike last year when Big Brown was a finished product by the time the Belmont came around and Da' Tara was able to lope along on the lead; the ones that will be behind this guy are fresh and ready. Can't see it.

10 Brave Victory
Nick Zito
Rajiv Maragh Sometimes, I like a horse despite the fact that the cons outweigh the pros. That's the case here. If Maragh plays his cards right, he should be picking them up as the others start to lie down. Another who would need everything to go perfectly to win but feel he has a strong shot to hit the board.

**bryce** · 06-06-2009, 12:52 AM

Thanks SDB!

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2009, 12:52 AM

At the Gate - Saturday

The question heading into the 141st running of Belmont Stakes today is whether jockey Calvin Borel can win his own personal Triple Crown and become the first jockey to sweep the three races on more than one horse.

The biggest question for me is whether Mine That Bird can run another big effort in his third start in a five week span.

Only two Belmont Stakes winners in the past ten years raced in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. The other eight skipped either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness, or came in the back door skipping both of the first legs of the Triple Crown.

The only two runners to win the Belmont Stakes after competing in the first two legs in the past ten years are Afleet Alex in 2005 and Point Given in 2001.

Toss in the fact that Mine That Bird is coming into the race off back to back career top efforts and is likely going to be 9/5, and that sure seems to add up to an underlay in my book.

Before we get to the Belmont Stakes, we have ten races to solve, including five other graded stakes.

Among the headliners we are going to see are Benny the Bull, Fabulous Strike, Forever Together, This Ones for Phil, Hull, Regal Ransom, and Justwhistledixie,

Those are just in the first four stakes on the card. The $400,000 Manhattan Handicap (G1) drew a field of 14, which includes five Grade 1 winners.

Plenty of star power and interesting races to wager on throughout the day.

Rain was still falling in the New York area late on Friday afternoon, and the track was sloppy for the final race on the card. The races were taken off the turf.

The rain is supposed to tail off around midnight, and there is only a 10% chance of rain Saturday morning. The remainder of the day looks clear.

The main track dries out quickly, and if the rain does stop as forecast, we likely will see a main track labeled “good” for the first few races, and it likely would be fast by post time of the Belmont Stakes.

The turf course is another question. Six of the races on the 13 race card are slated for the grass course.

The turf course was labeled as “soft” before the later races were taken off the turf on Friday. In my best guess, the condition of the turf course will be listed as “good” to “yielding” tomorrow.

To purchase my full card report for Belmont Stakes Day that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.

Here is today's opener from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Alw $53,000N1X (11:35 ET)
#2 Night in Tunisa 12/1
#5 Living Out a Dream 8/1
#3 Inger Management 5/2
#1 Dixieland Star 2/1

Analysis: #2 Night in Tunisa had to steady in traffic while down along the inside near the half-mile pole and was not a threat in the stretch last out at this condition on the turf. It was his first go off a 2 1/2 month break and this guy is not bred to like the turf. The colt was a decent third on the main track last fall at the Big A at this level in his first start against winners. A couple of decent works on the morning tab and the surface switch should suit this guy. Worth a look if we see most of the 12/1 ML.

#5 Living Out a Dream made a mild late rally to finish third last out against state bred $15K non winners of two. The five year old cuts back to six furlongs and he broke his maiden at the Big A at the distance. The low % barn loses Chavez to recent maiden winner #9 Blow Up but gets a suitable replacement in Ramon. The son of Artax should get some pace in front of him and may get overlooked on the tote here.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 1,2,3,5
TRI: 2,5 / 1,2,3,5 / 1,2,3,5,9,10

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 10 Candy Eclair S. (5:20 et)
#2 Sheets 9/2
#11 My Kim 6/1
#4 Libor Lady 7/2
#9 Ahvee's Destiny 5/2

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Analysis: #2 Sheets bobbled at the break brushing a foe, came with a three wide bid but ran out of gas in a fifth place finish in the A Very One at Pimlico. The effort was coming off a 6 1/2 month layoff and she figures to be wound tighter today. She also has run well over turf with some give to it, her last win coming in the Turf Amazon last fall at Philly over ground labeled as "good". Three back at Belmont she ran a good third in the Xtra Heat behind a pair of next out winners. The winner of that race was Diamondrella, who returned to win the Giant's Causeway in her next start on 4/18 at Keeneland. She just has the one win on turf but she looks primed for a good effort and we should catch a fair price.

#11 My Kim chased the early pace and was no match for #9 Ahvee's Destiny late in a runner up finish at Gulfstream Park last out. She passed her first two allowance conditions in her two previous starts and she still appears to have some upside. She fits here at a decent price if she draws in off the AE list.

Wagering
WIN: #2 t win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 2,11 / 2,4,9,11
TRI: 2,11 / 2,4,9,11 / 2,3,4,8,9,11

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 Acorn S. G1 (4:44 ET)
#6 Livin Lovin 15/1
#8 Justwhistledixie 8/5
#9 Four Gifts 6/1
#4 Funny Moon 8/1

Analysis: #6 Livin Lovin finds a tough spot for her first start since last November but she showed some real promise as a two year old. She won the Grade 3 Tempted in her last start at the Big A at today's one-mile distance and she did it in style. The runner up in the race was Gemswick Park, who returned to win the Grade 3 Old Hat in her next outing. Ramon sticks on this daughter of Birdstone for the Klesaris barn that is 28% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back of a +180 day layoff. I like runners coming off works at Fair Hill; they usually have the screws tightened and are ready to fire.

#8 Justwhistledixie might have given Rachel Alexandra a tussle in the Kentucky Oaks last out but she had to scratch with a foot bruise. She has won five in a row and last out won the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss in her first start going nine furlongs. She broke her maiden over the main track here and looks like a very legit favorite. It is interesting McLaughlin sticks with Leparoux after Garcia rode her in 5 of her first 6 starts, with Garcia landing on the Clement runner #4 Funny Moon.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 4,6,8,9
TRI: 6,8 / 4,6,8,9 / 4,5,6,7,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #2 Night in Tunisa 12/1
R1: #5 Living Out a Dream 8/1
R2: #1 Great Emperor 10/1
R3: #6 Woodford Manhattan 15/1
R6: #4 Sixthirteen 12/1
R7: #3 Captain’s Lover 8/1
R7: #6 Modern Look 8/1
R9: #6 Livin Lovin 15/1
R9: #4 Funny Moon 8/1
R10: #2 Champs Elysees / #2b Zambezi Sun 8/1
R11: #4 Summer Bird 12/1
R11: #1 Chocolate Candy 10/1
R12: #2 Monastir 8/1
R13: #1 Wirebuster 12/1

Good luck today!

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2009, 12:57 AM

Belmont Analysis

We won't be at Belmont Park on Saturday, and for that we're a little sad. Never mind that a Triple Crown isn't on the line for this year's renewal of the Belmont Stakes, and the crowd will likely be about half of what I have experienced in my most recent visits to the track. It's still the Belmont, and if they can call the Kentucky Derby the most exciting 2 minutes in sports, they can call the Belmont the most exciting two-and-a-half minutes in sports.

Moreover, we like the whole scene at Belmont Park on Belmont day. Unlike the Kentucky Derby, where average race fans have almost no chance to show up on Derby Day at Churchill Downs and actually see the race, or the Preakness, where getting a view of the Preakness is almost impossible unless you can squeeze into the apron or get one of those hard-to-find seats in the grandstand, the Belmont really is a people's event. Anyone can attend, no reservations required (although they're suggested if you actually want a seat in the expansive grandstand).

Belmont's grand size has something to do with it. The big track can easily accommodate crowds over 100,000 without having to funnel fans into the infield (indeed, there is no infield seating, or standing, at Belmont). Moreover, when we say anyone can show up and see the race, we mean it; very affordable grandstand ticket sales the day of the race actually get patrons onto the apron, where if they can find a spot or otherwise crane their necks, they can watch the Belmont unfold right in front of their eyes. By spending a few more bucks, any fan can get into the Club House on Belmont Day and get a view closer to the finish line in a bit more comfy (but still crowded) surroundings. Showing up on race day for the Derby or Preakness might allow a fan to get on to the grounds, but not out to the apron to actually watch the race.

And though some have romanticized about the "infield experience" at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, we have long felt that spectacle is overrated; it often regresses into one more reminiscent of NASCAR events than a horse race, which is one reason Pimlico didn't allow patrons to being in their own beer for the recent Preakness. But we don't have to worry about that at Belmont, because the infield retains its dignity (meaning no patrons) at all times.

Moreover, transportation to the track is a snap via the Long Island Railroad; there's no reason to brave the Long Island Expressway with your car. Trains drop you off right at Belmont Park's own station, and plenty of extra trains are running from Penn Station on Belmont day. In the past, that's been the way to go on our trips up from Washington and Philadelphia; we'll just leave our car at the Metropark station off the Garden State Parkway, take an NJ Transit train into Manhattan, then switch to the LIRR at Penn Station. Convenient, somewhat comfortable, and without the sort of massive headaches associated with parking in Louisville for Derby Day, or in Baltimore for the Preakness, especially since there's no significant parking available at Pimlico even on a day without a big crowd.

Belmont Park, however, is almost palatial, a racing facility that wreaks of elegance and grandeur. When reconstruction was finished in 1968, Belmont Park became a real jewel in the horse racing world, and it still is today. It's also probably the last "mega-track" we'll see built in our lifetimes; facilities built since, such as the Texas tracks in Dallas-Fort Worth (Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie) and Houston (Sam Houston Park), have no use for such expansive grandstand seating. Indeed, the "new Belmont" (although even it is now 41 years old) will probably live on as the last great race track built in the States for a long, long time.

We remember plenty of exciting Belmonts where no Triple Crown was at stake, although we have to admit that there is something special about being out on Long Island when there's a chance a horse can complete the trick. We've been there for the last three tries (Funny Cide in 2003, Smarty Jones in '04, and Big Brown last year), and can say that the excitement and anticipation before those races exceeded that of any other sports events we've seen in person during our lifetime, including Super Bowls, Rose Bowls, and various other championship games.

The New York flavor permeates the track; we recall getting a kick out of seeing the Giants' Michael Strahan mingling with the masses on Smarty Jones' try at the Crown in 2004, and noticed how Jimmy Fallon was enjoying himself tremendously when hanging out with the crowd at last year's renewal. And who couldn't notice Bo Derek as she watched Big Brown try to win the Triple Crown last year, either. Other prominent New Yorkers make sure to be in attendance as well. In fact, we've been so enthralled by our Belmont experiences that when we are asked what are the top sports events someone should see in their lifetime, the Belmont, when a Triple Crown is at stake, now tops our list.

Indeed, the drama and allure of the Belmont is probably best exemplified not when the Secretariats and Seattle Slews and Affirmeds won the Triple Crown, but rather when all of the great horses have tried and failed. Follow along.

In the 40-odd years that I've been following the sport, I've seen 19 horses try to win the Triple Crown. Only three of them, in a 5-year span in the mid '70s (Secretariat in '73, Seattle Slew in '77, Affirmed in '78), turned the trick. Almost all of those who came into the Belmont looked a good bet to win, just as Big Brown did last year.

Including Spectacular Bid.

Veteran racegoers all roll their eyes when the name Spectacular Bid pops up. This was a magnificent thoroughbred. Ask a lot of knowledgeable railbirds about who was the better horse between the Bid and Secretariat, and you'd be surprised at how many would opt for the Bid.

But he couldn't win the Belmont.

The year was 1979, and for all the world it looked as if we were going to have back-to-back-to-back Triple Crown winners. Seattle Slew was unbeaten when he turned the trick two years earlier, and Affirmed had proven, if nothing else, that he was as gallant as any thoroughbred champ when he outdueled Alydar in all three legs the year before. Neither, however, looked like Spectacular Bid when winning the first two legs of Crown. The Bid, dominant at the Derby and Preakness, would go off at 1/5 in New York, shorter odds than the early posted numbers on Big Brown last year or any of the other Triple Crown hopefuls in recent Belmonts.

The Bid was Dr. Fager-like good, one of those etched indelibly in the minds of any racing enthusiast who ever saw him run. And he looked like he would put the Belmont into his satchel, too, especially turning for home 30 years ago, leading the field. But that final eighth can be a bear, and the Bid, who, like any three-year-old at this stage had never had to run this mile-and-a-half distance, began to waver. Jockey Ronnie Franklin hit the accelerator a bit too soon on the Bid, down the backstretch, and even though he looked clear at the top of the stretch, Franklin had asked for too much, too soon. Suddenly, William Haggin Perry's colt, Coastal, rolled up on the outside, and, to the astonishment of the crowd, went past the Bid in the final sixteenth. Coastal won; the Bid faded to third.

Had there never been a horse named "Upset" to deal Man 'o War his only loss, we might have instead had the word "coastal" instead of "upset" referring to that surprise-defeat term. But indeed, Spectacular Bid had lost. And though trainer Bud Delp lamented at the time that the Bid had stepped on a pin that morning and hurt his foot, most racegoers chalked that down to sour grapes on Delp's part. In the Belmont, The Bid had looked very much like a champ for 1 1/4 miles, 1 3/8 miles, even 1 7/16...but not at a mile-and-a-half.

The pin didn't beat Spectacular Bid. The Belmont did.

Like it has for a lot of great horses over the past 40-odd years. It has now been 31 years since Steve Cauthen and Affirmed fought off Alydar in the stretch to win the '78 Belmont and become the last Triple Crown winner, and when the late, great race caller Chick Anderson, in his last Belmont, told viewers that "We'll test these two to the wire!" But in that span (since 1964), as mentioned above, 19 horses have won the first two legs of the Crown. Sixteen of those, including some truly great runners, have failed. We can remember back to 1964, when the great Canadian champ, Northern Dancer, destined to become the sire of all sires, won the first two legs, seeing off the classy Hill Rise in a grueling Kentucky Derby, then winning more handily at the Preakness. On to the Belmont Stakes, which, for a short span between 1963-67, was run at nearby Aqueduct, while the Belmont facility was rebuilt. An odd sight it was, those Belmonts at Aqueduct, where the race started at the head of the far turn at that 1 1/8-mile oval. And Northern Dancer, under Bill Hartack, was looking awfully good for a mile and-a-quarter in that '64 Belmont, and seemed poised at the head of the stretch to add the final leg of the Crown to his collection. But Hartack could not find another gear, where Roman Brother and eventual winner Quadrangle could.

It was much the same two years later, when Kauai King, a Native Dancer colt under the savvy Don Brumfield, won the first two legs and was ready to become the first since Citation in '48 to win the Crown. Amberoid, however, had other plans that afternoon at Aqueduct, and we would have to wait a bit longer for another Triple Crown winner.

Racing aficionados still cringe at what might have been when the Belmont Stakes returned to the refurbished and rebuilt Belmont Park in 1968...an asterisk Triple Crown winner! That's because Calumet's Forward Pass had been "awarded" the Kentucky Derby win two days after finishing second in Louisville when Dancer's Image (another Native Dancer colt) had been disqualified after traces of bute were found in his post-race urine sample.

That controversy was one of the biggest in sports in a very controversial year. The bute, reportedly administered by legendary Churchill Downs track vet Dr. Alex Harthill the week before the race, should have flushed out of the Dancer's system in the intervening 152 hours (long before, in fact), but traces were found in the post-race sample. (Bute was legal at most North American tracks in '68, and had been legal the year before and year after in Kentucky, but not '68). Eventually, it took several trips through the courts before the fiasco was settled years later, and Forward Pass' name stayed in the record books as the "official" winner. Insiders have since told us that track officials were going to overlook the test and resultant controversy until Wathen Knebelkamp, then Churchill Downs' president, quickly went to the press with the news. The two weeks until the Preakness became quite a media circus, with Forward Pass now the winner (although it wouldn't become official for years and several trips to the courts).

As it was, the big, powerful Calumet charge went into Baltimore as the Derby winner, then romped home in the Preakness in Big Brown-like fashion, and the thought of the asterisk Triple Crown winner became very real. It was then off to Belmont Park, where the newly-refurbished, palatial facility welcomed back the Belmont Stakes that June 1. And for an awfully long time it looked like Forward Pass was in position to win, leading into mid-stretch, before local favorite Stage Door Johnny, under Heliodoro Gustines, found another gear and had just enough time to make a late charge, collaring Forward Pass in the last sixteenth and winning by less than a length. Racing enthusiasts sighed in relief, as there would indeed be no asterisk Triple Crown winner. But we still hadn't had a Crown winner since 1948.
Enter 1969, and that all seemed to change with Majestic Prince, under the irascible Hartack and trained by the legendary ex-jockey Johnny Longden (who won the Triple Crown in '43 with Count Fleet). Majestic Prince, for a time, was Secretariat before Secretariat. He was aptly-named and certainly looked the part of a Triple Crown winner, a big chestnut who prepped in California, and, undefeated, saw off the talented Arts & Letters in bruising Derby and Preakness stretch drives. This would be the one to win the Crown, or so many thought until Longden announced that he didn't want the Prince to run in the Belmont. He didn't like the way he came out of the Preakness, and thought the mile and a half was too much for the colt. Canadian owner Frank McMahon had other ideas, however; the Prince would run in New York.

But "The Pumper" proved prophetic. For a time, many blamed Hartack for the Prince's Belmont failure, allowing the pace to unfold snail-like (:26 first quarter!) instead of dictating the pace in a race that was there for him to take on a silver platter. Instead, it set up perfectly for Arts & Letters, under Braulio Baeza, to win handily.

Longden was right; the Prince wasn't ready for the Belmont. He was injured in the race and never ran again. The Belmont had claimed another would-be Triple Crown winner.

Except for that brief patch in the mid '70s, far more Belmont Triple Crown failures than successes ensued in the next 39 years. South American Canonero II was the rage after romping in the Derby and Preakness in 1971. But he came a cropper in the Belmont, failing to fire at the top of the stretch while a longshot named Pass Catcher ran away and eventually held off the charging Jim French at the wire. A classy Pleasant Colony looked the part of a Crown winner in 1981, but finished 3rd to Summing in his try at the Belmont. Alysheba took his stab in 1987, but was outrun by Bet Twice and two others in New York. And then there was Sunday Silence, who had an Affirmed-Alydar type duel going with Easy Goer in '89 after narrowly winning the first two legs of the Crown. Only Sunday Silence wasn't Affirmed-like in the Belmont, Easy Goer romping home.

The last eleven years have seen seven horses fail to win the Belmont after clearing the first two Triple Crown hurdles. The great Silver Charm, owned by Bob Bev Lewis and ridden by Gary Stevens, looked worthy-enough in '97, and, after finally putting away nemesis Free House in deep stretch in New York, looked like a Crown winner. Except that the wily Chris McCarron had wheeled Touch Gold on the far outside, out of Silver Charm's view, and slipped past the grey horse to win narrowly in the last 50 yards.

That was little drama compared to 1998, however, when Mike Pegram's Real Quiet, trained by Bob Baffert, after impressive wins vs. good fields at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, was suddenly three lengths clear mid-stretch at the Belmont, cruising home, seemingly, under a giddy Kent Desormeaux. Only that Stevens would get his Belmont revenge, thrown back in the saddle by a violent stretch charge from his mount, Victory Gallop, who nailed Real Quiet at the wire. It was as close as a horse could come to winning the Crown, and not getting it. Would we ever see another Crown winner, some had to wonder?

Forward to 1999, when another Lewis horse, Charismatic, looked ready to nail the Crown after winning the first two legs. The Belmont proved too much, however, and the valiant colt faded late, broke down, and lost to Lemon Drop Kid. More of the same frustration a few years later, as first War Emblem, looking every bit Smarty Jones-like in winning the Derby and Preakness in '02, failed badly at the Belmont, a distant 8th behind winner Sarava. In 2003, New York was a dither with home-state bred gelding Funny CIde on the cusp of the Triple Crown, looking awfully hard to beat, too, after his Preakness win. But Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted wore down Jose Santos' mount in the stretch.

Then, Smarty Jones appeared a near shoe-in the next year in '04, with his contingent of vocal supporters having made the short trip up I-95 from Philadelphia and the rest of the Delaware Valley to cheer him on. But Smarty Jones found that last eighth of a mile a furlong too far. Birdstone, with Edgar Prado up, collared Smarty in the stretch. Again, we would have to wait, and after Big Brown's failure last June, the drought between Triple Crown winners had reached an all-time dry patch. Indeed, after Funny Cide failed in 2003, we exceeded the gap of 25 years between Citation (in '48) and Secretariat. This year marks 31 years since Affirmed fought off Alydar and last turned the trick.

A reminder of how difficult it really is to win the Triple Crown is how many other great horses have tried and failed at the Belmont. Rare is the year when everything goes right for a horse in the Triple Crown quest, as it did for Secretariat in '73. That year, Secretariat had no real serious, Arts & Letters, Alydar, or Easy Goer-like challengers. The tracks rolled their surfaces hard in hopes of record-breaking runs. And the weather came up good for Secretariat, too, unlike stable-mate Riva Ridge the previous year (whose Crown bid ended at a muddy Preakness vs. longshot Bee Bee Bee), or the great Damascus in '67, whose Derby was ruined by an off-track (and a loss to Proud Clarion).

Remember, a lot of big names have only won two legs of the crown, 46 of them, in fact, compared to just 11 who pulled the hat-trick and won all three. Besides Damascus and Riva Ridge, other equine notables like Native Dancer, Nashua, and even Man O'War (who didn't run in the Derby), and dozens of others, only won two legs of the Triple Crown.

We're not sure what is going to happen Saturday at Belmont Park, although we'd have to say that we'd be surprised if Mine That Bird can't duplicate his Kentucky Derby triumph, especially with good luck charm Calvin Borel back on board. Most of the challengers from the Derby and Preakness, including Rachel Alexandra, will bypass the Belmont, although the ranks of first-time Triple Crown starters who won the Belmont is a long one, including last year's upset winner Da'Tara. Whatever, we'll be watching.

But the memories of Quadrangle, Amberoid, Stage Door Johnny, Pass Catcher, Coastal, Touch Gold, etc. from past Belmonts are still too fresh in our minds to concede anything to any favorite at the Belmont, many of those who looked better than Mine That Bird does entering this Saturday's classic.

Like Spectacular Bid.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2009, 01:02 AM

Belmont Stakes Preview

As expected, Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner-up Mine That Bird has been installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite in a field of 10 for the 141st running of the Belmont Stakes this Saturday at beautiful Belmont Park.

An anonymous longshot coming into this years’ Run for the Roses, Mine That Bird thrust himself into the national spotlight with an equally awesome and surprising last-to-first, rail skimming move to win the Derby by a widening 6 ¾ lengths under jockey Calvin Borel.

In the Preakness, trainer Chip Woolley was forced to find a new rider for his little gelding after Borel, in an unprecedented move, opted to ride Kentucky Oaks winning superfilly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, marking the first time a rider took off the Derby winner to ride a different horse in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, Mine That Bird put in another explosive late rally in the Preakness but fell a length short of Rachel Alexandra and Borel, who won the Preakness in gate-to-wire fashion.

After the Preakness, Smith announced he wouldn’t ride Mine That Bird in the Belmont due to a prior riding commitment in California leaving Mine That Bird without a rider again. But after the connections of Rachel Alexandra announced she wouldn’t contest the 1 ½ mile “Test of the Champion,” a confident Borel finds himself back aboard the Derby winner.

“We’re going to win,” Borel guaranteed earlier this week. “No questions asked.”

Woolley, who has become a celebrity in his own right over the past few months, with his customary cowboy hat and crutches he needs to get around with after breaking his leg in a motorcycle accident earlier this year, has changed things up a bit going into the Belmont. First, he has decided not to give Mine That Bird a workout over the Belmont strip, known as “Big Sandy.” Secondly, Mine That Bird actually flew into New York from Churchill Downs on Wednesday as opposed to taking his usual van ride with Woolley at the wheel. Still, he’s confident in his horses’ chances and loves the enthusiasm exuded by his rider.

“That’s just Calvin. I’m fine with that,” Woolley said at the Belmont Stakes draw Wednesday morning. “I love a man who’s confident and he’ll be comfortable when he gets on the horse, because he won’t be afraid.”

One thing Borel and Woolley surely do have to be afraid of is the apparent lack of pace in the Belmont and the fact that second choice Charitable Man figures to be the one that will control the early happenings may not bode well for the Derby winner as well. Undefeated in three starts on dirt, Charitable Man won the first two starts of his career before being sidelined with a leg injury that forced him to miss the Derby despite last ditch efforts when he was off the board in his first start of the year in the Blue Grass at Keeneland over a synthetic surface. In his most recent start, Charitable Man, who’ll be ridden again by Alan Garcia, won the Peter Pan, the traditional New York prep for the Belmont by almost four lengths.

While formidable on paper, perhaps the most telling sign of how well Charitable Man is doing is by the words of his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin over the past few days. Usually soft-spoken, McLaughlin has been just as excited, and almost as boisterous as Borel in the days leading up to the Belmont.

“Our horse couldn’t be doing any better,” McLaughlin said. “We’re very excited. I wouldn’t trade places with anyone.”

Another trainer who is more than pleased with how his horse is coming into the Belmont is Todd Pletcher who’ll saddle the highly regarded Dunkirk on Saturday. After breaking his maiden and winning an entry level allowance contest in his first two starts by daylight, Dunkirk was a game second in the Florida Derby over a speed favoring course that severely hampered his chances of winning.

His Kentucky Derby try was a series of calamities. He stumbled out of the starting gate, was steadied into the first turn and never handled the cuppy, muddy Churchill Downs surface that day. Since the Derby, he’s trained brilliantly at Belmont over the past couple of weeks, a sure sign that the $3.7 million yearling purchase is poised to run well this Saturday.

“That’s not really my style, but it shows how talented he is,” Pletcher said, in regards to the fast times Dunkirk has posted in the morning works.

It’s worth noting that Pletcher and Velazquez, along with part owner Michael Tabor teamed up to win a thrilling 2007 renewal of the Belmont with the filly Rags to Riches, who defeated the sports eventual all-time leading money earner Curlin.

Trainer Nick Zito is another who is familiar with winning the Belmont and toppling Derby winners. In 2004, the Zito trained Birdstone, sire of Mine That Bird, ran down the undefeated Smarty Jones, stopping his bid to become the twelfth Triple Crown winner and just last year sent out Da’ Tara who went wire-to-wire as 2-5 favorite Big Brown was eased in the stretch in his bid for a Triple Crown.

This year, Zito sends out a pair of longshots in Miner’s Escape, winner of the Federico Tesio at Pimlico last out who might have a say in the early going and stablemate Brave Victory who was a hard charging third in the Peter Pan despite the fact that jockey Rajiv Maragh lost his whip in the stretch. Both colts are owned by Bob LaPenta who also owns Da’ Tara. Maragh returns aboard Brave Victory while Jose Lezcano will be back aboard Miner’s Escape.

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas will look to join the great Woody Stephens, who won five Belmont Stakes in his career, when he sends out a pair of longshots in Flying Private and Luv Gov. The former finished last in the Derby before closing well to be fourth in the Preakness despite encountering some trouble on the far turn while the latter has won just one of his eleven starts and is better known for being named after disgraced former New York governor Elliott Spitzer. Julien Leparoux rides Flying Private while Miguel Mena will pilot Luv Gov.

The Belmont field is rounded out by three Kentucky Derby also rans. Chocolate Candy was fifth in the Derby for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and will get the services of Garrett Gomez in the Belmont. Sixth place Derby finisher Summer Bird will get blinkers and a key rider switch to Kent Desormeaux for trainer Tim Ice while the Eoin Harty trained Mr. Hot Stuff, fifteenth in Louisville, will get Edgar Prado in the saddle for the first time. Prado won the 2002 Belmont aboard Sarava, the longest priced winner in the history of the race at $142.50 and was also aboard Birdstone in 2004

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2009, 01:06 AM

Calvin Borel seeking personal Triple Crown

NEW YORK (AP) -A Cajun, a cowboy and a tough little gelding have teamed up to make this Triple Crown season one to remember.

In Saturday's Belmont Stakes, Cajun rider Calvin Borel will be reunited with trainer Chip Woolley's Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird in an attempt to become the first jockey to win the Triple Crown on different horses.

Borel has guaranteed victory in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont, and isn't about to back down as post time approaches.

``I said it, and I'm sticking with it,'' the jockey from St. Martin Parish, La., said. ``I'm confident 100 percent that he'll win.''

Woolley, a former bareback rider from New Mexico with the big, black cowboy hat, loves Borel's fearlessness, and was thrilled he was available to ride Mine That Bird in last month's Derby.

``You've got to go into these big races with a lot of confidence and patience and belief in yourself to do it,'' he said. ``He' the perfect match.''

Borel won the Derby on the 50-1 long shot by an astonishing 6 3/4 lengths in a daring rail-rattling, last-to-first ride. The plot thickened when Rachel Alexandra - the filly he rode to six straight wins - was entered in the Preakness by new owner Jess Jackson and Borel was obligated to ride her.

Borel guided the filly to a one-length win over late-charging Mine That Bird. With Rachel Alexandra not in the Belmont, the stage is set for Borel to carve out his own place in thoroughbred racing history.

``Sure I want it for myself,'' Borel said. ``Why not? Nobody did it. I'd like to do it. It's another milestone. I want to do it for Chip, too. I'm grateful he gave me an opportunity to ride the horse back. It's a dream, and I'm just riding it.''

Mine That Bird is the 2-1 morning-line favorite in a field of 10 3-year-olds, with Charitable Man the second choice at 3-1. Son of 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone, Mine That Bird will leave from the No. 7 post for one lap around the wide, sweeping turns of huge Belmont Park.

``It's a very large place,'' Woolley said on a rainy Thursday morning as Mine That Bird galloped over the track for the first time. ``When you walk up there and look at the oval, you can't see the whole thing.''

After several rainy days, the weather forecast for Saturday called for partly cloudy skies with a high temperature of 77 degrees, and a 10 percent chance of rain. Post time for the Belmont is 6:27 p.m.

While it's now 31 years since Affirmed became the last Triple Crown champion, the novelty of a ``Calvin Crown'' has become the popular theme.

Personal Triple Crowns are not entirely new, though. In 1995, trainer D. Wayne Lukas won the Derby and the Belmont with Thunder Gulch and the Preakness with Timber Country. The Hall of Famer is bidding for his fifth Belmont win with long shots Flying Private and Luv Gov.

``You almost wonder if it isn't destined for him,'' Lukas said. ``There were so many decisions that had to be made for it to fall into place for him to get the ride back. That said, at least he's in a position to do it.''

Again, Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito will try to play spoiler with a pair of long shots of his own in Brave Victory and Miner's Escape. Zito dashed the Triple Crown bids of Smarty Jones when Birdstone won at 36-1 odds and of Big Brown last year when Da' Tara won at 38-1 odds.

``I think I've got live long shots here,'' Zito said. ``If we're good enough, we'll make it. If not, we won't. We just gotta play the game and see.''

The biggest threat appears to be Charitable Man, who did not run in the first two legs of the Triple Crown but won the Peter Pan Stakes by 3 3/4 lengths at Belmont on May 9. The colt is trained by a confident Kiaran McLaughlin, winner of the 2006 Belmont with Jazil, and will be ridden by Alan Garcia, winner of last year's Belmont aboard Da' Tara.

``I've got a lot of respect for Mine That Bird, but my horse couldn't be doing any better,'' McLaughlin said.

Look for Charitable Man and Miner's Escape to set the early pace, with Mine That Bird somewhere near the back of the pack. After a long run down the backstretch, the key to victory likely depends on when a rider asks his horse to make a move. Woolley thinks Mine That Bird could be about 10-12 lengths behind the leaders.

Borel said he doesn't have to be ``out in the cloud like I've been, going a mile and a half.

``There's a long stretch here, and he has about three-eighths of a mile run. I think I'll be in position at all times, and from the eighth pole home, he'll take me there.''

And perhaps into history.

---

The field, from the rail out: Chocolate Candy (10-1, Garrett Gomez); Dunkirk (4-1, John Velazquez); Mr. Hot Stuff (15-1, Edgar Prado); Summer Bird (12-1, Kent Desormeaux); Luv Gov (20-1, Miguel Mena); Charitable Man (3-1, Alan Garcia); Mine That Bird (2-1, Calvin Borel); Flying Private (12-1, Julien Leparoux); Miner's Escape (15-1, Jose Lezcano); and Brave Victory (15-1, Rajiv Maragh).

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2009, 10:15 AM

Not everybody loves Mine That Bird in Belmont

With all due respect to MINE THAT BIRD, I'm going to try and beat him in the Belmont with two horses that skipped a date with the plucky gelding in the Preakness.

CHARITABLE MAN was the most promising juvenile I witnessed during the 2008 Saratoga season, and the sky seemed the limit for the son of Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid after his efficient score in the Grade 2 Futurity during the Belmont Fall Championship meeting. Unfortunately, a saucer fracture to his left shin ended his 2-year-old season as well as his Kentucky Derby dreams.
He didn't run well in his three-year-old debut in the Blue Grass, but it's quite possible he was rusty off the six-month layoff, and he may not have handled Keeneland's polytrack surface. His win in the Peter Pan allayed fears that he wasn't the same horse after the injury. Although Charitable Man's trip in the Peter Pan wasn't overly taxing - he tracked the unrateable speed of pacesetter Hello Broadway and inherited the lead on the turn - he showed some class by flicking away the late-kickers despite being relatively close to those hot fractions.

It could be argued that it was Rachel Alexandra's tactical advantage that bested Mine That Bird in the Preakness. The filly blew the race wide open with three furlongs to go, and played "catch me if you can" with the rest of the field. The same scenario may occur in the Belmont, only with Charitable Man playing the role of the filly. Charitable Man has good early speed. If he's not on the lead heading into the backstretch, he figures to be tracking the pacesetter, and Alan Garcia may go for the throat midway on the final turn. If he is able to open up on his rivals at that point, the onus is on Mine That Bird and friends to come get him. That task may not be easy.

DUNKIRK made an eye-catching four wide sweep to poke his gray head in front at the quarter-pole of the Florida Derby only to be turned back by the classy Quality Road in the lane. He was battling a speed bias that day, and although he was shooed away by the winner late, he kept on to his task to finish second-best with ease. He was one of the hype horses in the Derby despite his inexperience, and the journey was disastrous. Dunkirk reportedly grabbed a quarter during the cavalry charge into the first turn, and didn't have an easy trip at all over the sloppy going. Blame his inexperience if you will, but the circumstances surrounding his trip are reason enough to discount the poor running line. It could be argued that Dunkirk has the most natural talent of any Belmont entrant, and he shouldn't be ignored as the likely third choice.

As for the rest of the field:

Chocolate Candy (#1) boasts a wonderful pedigree, but he failed to take advantage of a closer-friendly Pro-Ride surface in the Santa Anita Derby, and still must prove himself over dirt. I like this horse - his race in the El Camino Real showcased his determination - but he needs to take a step forward to win this.

Mr. Hot Stuff (#3), like Chocolate Candy, has a beautiful pedigree and is unproven on dirt. The full brother to 2008 Travers winner Colonel John is still very green. While he should handle this distance, he is another performer that must improve to pull off the upset. I think he has the potential to be a solid horse later in the year, if not in 2010.

I tried to make a serious case for Summer Bird (#4) as a win candidate, but ultimately relegated him to a minor award. He rallied nicely and galloped out well in the Arkansas Derby after breaking poorly and racing four wide on the final turn, but he was aided by a hot pace up front that day, and was late to change leads. His Derby wasn't bad, and he has upside potential. I like the rider change to Kent D., and the addition of blinkers may entice Summer Bird into the race a bit quicker. He has a chance here.

Luv Gov (#5) needed 10 tries to break his maiden, and his only win came over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. The Preakness try wasn't very promising, and he is hard to endorse in this spot despite a sire line that emphasizes stamina.

Mine That Bird (#7) proved that his 50-1 shocker in the Kentucky Derby wasn't a fluke with his bang-up performance in the Preakness. Speed figure fans will note that his last two races are faster than anything the rest of the field has ever run with the exception of Dunkirk's Florida Derby, but I just don't like playing one-run closers, and he'll have his work cut out for him if the leaders steal away entering the final turn. He's become a very likeable horse, and he should make his presence felt in a positive way.

Flying Private (#8) didn't have the easiest trip in the Preakness when a rallying fourth, and the race was certainly an improvement off his last-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Flying Private used to show early speed, and I won't be surprised in the least if Julien Leparoux has his mount closer than expected going into the clubhouse turn. Although eligible for a 'n2L' allowance race, Flying Private's Preakness was solid, and he isn't completely out of this. Plus, Olivia Katherine Duckworth, the handicapper that selected Mine That Bird to win the Kentucky Derby, sticks with number eight.

Miner's Escape (#9) may be one of those Mineshaft runners that needed time to figure the game out. After five bad losses to start his career, the Nick Zito-trained colt has now won two in a row against much-weaker competition. He has speed, and should be prominent from the start. The similarities to Da'Tara, last year's Belmont spoiler, are striking. Both are Mineshaft colts trained by Nick Zito with early speed.

Brave Victory (#10), a son of Lion Heart, may not want to go this far. He rallied for third in the Peter Pan, but was aided by the hot pace up front.

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2009, 12:30 PM

Belmont Picks will be post a bit later.....

GOOD LUCK !

**StarDust Bum** · 06-06-2009, 01:55 PM

Belmont Pick 4 plus Derby Pick:

Pk 4

race 8
#2 this ones for Phil (proable chalk)
#5 Triumphant Flight
#8 Hull

Race 9
#4 Funny Moon
#6 Livin Lovin
#8 Justwhistledixie (probable chalk)
#9 Four Gifts

Race 10
#5 Gio Pointe (has to beat Chalk Court Vision came home in 22 and 2 to win GR1 at SA, Gomez and trainer 21% off the layoff )

Belmont

Mine that Bird (3 races in 7 weeks?)
wanna be a hero
#1 Chocolate Candy training good
#4 Summer Bird
#10 Brave Victory (the other Zito)

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