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Don't let the "going for win 300" affect your betting. Most times players going for a milestone, especially pitchers who only get one chance every four days, let the pressure get to them and lose that first try more often than winning. I plan on playing Washington but am waiting because I think the line will move toward SF closer to game time. I see a lot of guys waking up, they see Wash is favored, think TRAP and play SF without thinking about anything else. That should move the line down, hopefully to around a pickem although early returns show two thirds of the public on SF and the line still shows them as the small dog. Now you can ask yourself, why hasen't the line moved away from SF to get more Washington money?
See if this helps. Ask yourself, which is better, the road team with a 7-16 record on the road or the home team with an 8-16 record at home. Does anyone really want the Giants and their 45 yo pitcher going for a milestone after finding out the Giants have the lowest runs scored away from home in the NL. Their BA on the road is .237 with an OBP of just .280. That's terrible and the reason they are averaging just 3.3 runs a game on the road.
Washington, at home has an .349 OBP and are averaging almost two more runs per game than the Giants at 4.9 runs at home. I realize both bullpens suck, with Washington's a full run worse but scoring that extra 1.6 runs a game at home, more than makes up for their bullpen.
Back to Johnson, the 45 year old you think will win number 300 today. In his 10 starts this year, he has gone more than 6 innings just three times. Do you really want the Giant's bullpen and their away 4.92 ERA against a team that should score almost two more runs that the Giants.
If any of you still want the Giants, then just play them for the First Five Innings. This still isn't much help, but Johnson has gone more than five innings in only half his starts. Again, hello SF bullpen. The best plays for you are Washington in Game one over Johnson and then play Cain and the Giants in Game Two for the DH split. Or put another way, Cain is much better than Johnson, so bet it that way.
See if this helps. Ask yourself, which is better, the road team with a 7-16 record on the road or the home team with an 8-16 record at home. Does anyone really want the Giants and their 45 yo pitcher going for a milestone after finding out the Giants have the lowest runs scored away from home in the NL. Their BA on the road is .237 with an OBP of just .280. That's terrible and the reason they are averaging just 3.3 runs a game on the road.
Washington, at home has an .349 OBP and are averaging almost two more runs per game than the Giants at 4.9 runs at home. I realize both bullpens suck, with Washington's a full run worse but scoring that extra 1.6 runs a game at home, more than makes up for their bullpen.
Back to Johnson, the 45 year old you think will win number 300 today. In his 10 starts this year, he has gone more than 6 innings just three times. Do you really want the Giant's bullpen and their away 4.92 ERA against a team that should score almost two more runs that the Giants.
If any of you still want the Giants, then just play them for the First Five Innings. This still isn't much help, but Johnson has gone more than five innings in only half his starts. Again, hello SF bullpen. The best plays for you are Washington in Game one over Johnson and then play Cain and the Giants in Game Two for the DH split. Or put another way, Cain is much better than Johnson, so bet it that way.