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Reno's 12 best home record chase

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  • #16
    Game 4
    962 Stl +110 Bet: 15.00 Win: 16.50
    Stl wins, chase stops at 4.

    Game 1
    970 Bos -135 Bet: 2.00 Win: 1.50
    Bos wins. chase stopped at 1

    Game 1
    978 Chw -118 Bet: 2.00 Win: 1.70

    Frank, thanks for the info.
    Last edited by Reno Gambler; 05-19-2009, 10:30 PM.
    2013
    MLB
    DOGS: 3-6
    1ST 5: 9-6-1
    FULL GM:15-9
    OV/UN: 10-5

    Comment


    • #17
      Game 1
      CHW wins, chase stops at 1.
      2013
      MLB
      DOGS: 3-6
      1ST 5: 9-6-1
      FULL GM:15-9
      OV/UN: 10-5

      Comment


      • #18
        Since 2004 there's been 596 six game homestands.

        Game 1: 353-274 +980
        Game 2: 149-124 +65 (Astros tonight)
        Game 3: 73-51 +2160
        Game 4: 26-25
        Game 5: 10-15
        Game 6: 8-7

        These are all games for all teams. Not the 12 best home teams from the previous season. As noted in post #13 the 2006 Braves were a top-12 home team from the previous season. They had the 4th best home record in 2005. The 2008 Tigers team were borderline. They had the 13th best home record in 2007.

        Comment


        • #19
          Only 7 out of 596 times this chase has failed? That's 1.2% of the time. So if you do stay true to this you will come out on top at the end of a series 98.8% of the time. If history repeats itself, this chase looks good.

          Thanks for the info Frank, and thanks for bringing this over Reno.
          "CFB YTD: 5-8-1 -16.2"

          Comment


          • #20
            Here's the problem with any chase system. Using the 2006 Braves a $100 bettor would have lost $7,582 chasing. In the 6th game the bettor is betting $3400 on a +125 dog. How many BC member have a $8k bankroll? How many $100 players would have the balls to risk $3400 on a +125 Dog?

            Game 1 -155 Game Risk-155 (-155)
            Game2 +170 Game Risk-150 (-305)
            Game3 +110 Game Risk-368 (-673)
            Game4 -130 Game Risk-1005 (-1678)
            Game5 -140 Game Risk-2490 (-4168)
            Game6 +125 Game Risk-3414 (-7582)

            Using this model 51 times the chase has reached game 4 or roughly 10 times per season. How many $100 players will risk $1000 to win $100?

            Comment


            • #21
              That does make it tough. Since the numbers seem to fall cold after game 3 of the stand, do you think it would be more profitable to just ride with the first three games? The game 4,5, and 6 records are 44-47 combined when they get that far. Which is less than 50% and considering these are home teams and usually favorites or small dogs, those games are probably minimally profitable, if not losses altogether.

              My point being, games 1,2, and 3 seem to be where the money is made. If you ride those three, and cut your losses if they lose, I think it might be more profitable. It would also avoid any situtation where you would have to risk 3400+ to simply win back 100.

              The game 1,2 and 3 records are 575-449, which looks more profitable than 44-47 (G4,G5 and G6).

              You think just taking the first three might be better in the long run Frank?
              "CFB YTD: 5-8-1 -16.2"

              Comment


              • #22
                The Chase is 620-7

                Assuming we chased all 627 series and in a perfect world the 7 losing series all lost $7600 a $100 bettor would have profited $8800 (62,000 - 53200).

                The Chase bettor played 1115 games. How much was risked? Was it worth the reward?

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by mavskidd02 View Post
                  That does make it tough. Since the numbers seem to fall cold after game 3 of the stand, do you think it would be more profitable to just ride with the first three games? The game 4,5, and 6 records are 44-47 combined when they get that far. Which is less than 50% and considering these are home teams and usually favorites or small dogs, those games are probably minimally profitable, if not losses altogether.

                  My point being, games 1,2, and 3 seem to be where the money is made. If you ride those three, and cut your losses if they lose, I think it might be more profitable. It would also avoid any situtation where you would have to risk 3400+ to simply win back 100.

                  The game 1,2 and 3 records are 575-449, which looks more profitable than 44-47 (G4,G5 and G6).

                  You think just taking the first three might be better in the long run Frank?
                  I was thinking the same thing. Once again using the Braves as a model after 3 games the bettor lost $675.

                  575 wins +57,500
                  51 losses -34,425 (assuming $675 per loss)

                  Net profit $23,000

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Exactly! And if you factor the other games in (4,5 and 6), you are risking thousands to win 100, and you are hitting below 50%, which CAN NOT, be profitable. I think games 1,2, and 3 are the way to go.

                    Good luck to you Reno, whatever you might decide.
                    "CFB YTD: 5-8-1 -16.2"

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      5/22
                      Game 1
                      MINN
                      2013
                      MLB
                      DOGS: 3-6
                      1ST 5: 9-6-1
                      FULL GM:15-9
                      OV/UN: 10-5

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        5/22
                        Game 1
                        MIN -120 (EARLY LINE) haven't bet it yet
                        2013
                        MLB
                        DOGS: 3-6
                        1ST 5: 9-6-1
                        FULL GM:15-9
                        OV/UN: 10-5

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          5/22
                          Game 1

                          Min -135 Bet: 2.00 Win: 1.50
                          Last edited by Reno Gambler; 05-22-2009, 08:42 PM.
                          2013
                          MLB
                          DOGS: 3-6
                          1ST 5: 9-6-1
                          FULL GM:15-9
                          OV/UN: 10-5

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            5/22
                            Game 1

                            MIN won Bet: 2.00 Win: 1.50

                            Up coming Game Ones
                            5/25
                            Nym, Mil, Phil, Laa, Chc
                            5/29
                            Tb
                            2013
                            MLB
                            DOGS: 3-6
                            1ST 5: 9-6-1
                            FULL GM:15-9
                            OV/UN: 10-5

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              GAME ONES
                              PHIL -117 BET: 2.00 WIN: 1.70
                              NYM -160 BET: 2.00 WIN: 1.25
                              CHC -152 BET: 2.00 WIN: 1.30
                              LAA -150 BET: 2.00 WIN: 1.35

                              **STL +113 BET: 2.00 WIN: 2.25. This should be MIL -123 BET 2.00 WIN 1.63. I hit the wrong number on the kiosk.**
                              2013
                              MLB
                              DOGS: 3-6
                              1ST 5: 9-6-1
                              FULL GM:15-9
                              OV/UN: 10-5

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Game 1
                                MIL WON chase stop would of bet 2.00 won 1.63

                                NYM WON chase stop

                                Game 2
                                CHC -152
                                PHIL -150
                                LAA -185
                                Early lines will bet 4.00 for each game.
                                2013
                                MLB
                                DOGS: 3-6
                                1ST 5: 9-6-1
                                FULL GM:15-9
                                OV/UN: 10-5

                                Comment

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