Reno's 12 best home record chase

[Reno Gambler]

Game 4
962 Stl +110 Bet: 15.00 Win: 16.50
Stl wins, chase stops at 4.

Game 1
970 Bos -135 Bet: 2.00 Win: 1.50
Bos wins. chase stopped at 1

Game 1
978 Chw -118 Bet: 2.00 Win: 1.70

Frank, thanks for the info.

[Reno Gambler]

Game 1
CHW wins, chase stops at 1.

[frankb03]

Since 2004 there's been 596 six game homestands.

Game 1: 353-274 +980
Game 2: 149-124 +65 (Astros tonight)
Game 3: 73-51 +2160
Game 4: 26-25
Game 5: 10-15
Game 6: 8-7

These are all games for all teams. Not the 12 best home teams from the previous season. As noted in post #13 the 2006 Braves were a top-12 home team from the previous season. They had the 4th best home record in 2005. The 2008 Tigers team were borderline. They had the 13th best home record in 2007.

[mavskidd02]

Only 7 out of 596 times this chase has failed? That's 1.2% of the time. So if you do stay true to this you will come out on top at the end of a series 98.8% of the time. If history repeats itself, this chase looks good.

Thanks for the info Frank, and thanks for bringing this over Reno.

[frankb03]

Here's the problem with any chase system. Using the 2006 Braves a $100 bettor would have lost $7,582 chasing. In the 6th game the bettor is betting $3400 on a +125 dog. How many BC member have a $8k bankroll? How many $100 players would have the balls to risk $3400 on a +125 Dog?

Game 1 -155 Game Risk-155 (-155)
Game2 +170 Game Risk-150 (-305)
Game3 +110 Game Risk-368 (-673)
Game4 -130 Game Risk-1005 (-1678)
Game5 -140 Game Risk-2490 (-4168)
Game6 +125 Game Risk-3414 (-7582)

Using this model 51 times the chase has reached game 4 or roughly 10 times per season. How many $100 players will risk $1000 to win $100?

[mavskidd02]

That does make it tough. Since the numbers seem to fall cold after game 3 of the stand, do you think it would be more profitable to just ride with the first three games? The game 4,5, and 6 records are 44-47 combined when they get that far. Which is less than 50% and considering these are home teams and usually favorites or small dogs, those games are probably minimally profitable, if not losses altogether.

My point being, games 1,2, and 3 seem to be where the money is made. If you ride those three, and cut your losses if they lose, I think it might be more profitable. It would also avoid any situtation where you would have to risk 3400+ to simply win back 100.

The game 1,2 and 3 records are 575-449, which looks more profitable than 44-47 (G4,G5 and G6).

You think just taking the first three might be better in the long run Frank?

[frankb03]

The Chase is 620-7

Assuming we chased all 627 series and in a perfect world the 7 losing series all lost $7600 a $100 bettor would have profited $8800 (62,000 - 53200).

The Chase bettor played 1115 games. How much was risked? Was it worth the reward?

[frankb03]

That does make it tough. Since the numbers seem to fall cold after game 3 of the stand, do you think it would be more profitable to just ride with the first three games? The game 4,5, and 6 records are 44-47 combined when they get that far. Which is less than 50% and considering these are home teams and usually favorites or small dogs, those games are probably minimally profitable, if not losses altogether.

My point being, games 1,2, and 3 seem to be where the money is made. If you ride those three, and cut your losses if they lose, I think it might be more profitable. It would also avoid any situtation where you would have to risk 3400+ to simply win back 100.

The game 1,2 and 3 records are 575-449, which looks more profitable than 44-47 (G4,G5 and G6).

You think just taking the first three might be better in the long run Frank?

I was thinking the same thing. Once again using the Braves as a model after 3 games the bettor lost $675.

575 wins +57,500
51 losses -34,425 (assuming $675 per loss)

Net profit $23,000

[mavskidd02]

Exactly! And if you factor the other games in (4,5 and 6), you are risking thousands to win 100, and you are hitting below 50%, which CAN NOT, be profitable. I think games 1,2, and 3 are the way to go.

Good luck to you Reno, whatever you might decide.

[Reno Gambler]

5/22
Game 1
MINN

[Reno Gambler]

5/22
Game 1
MIN -120 (EARLY LINE) haven't bet it yet

[Reno Gambler]

5/22
Game 1

Min -135 Bet: 2.00 Win: 1.50

[Reno Gambler]

5/22
Game 1

MIN won Bet: 2.00 Win: 1.50

Up coming Game Ones
5/25
Nym, Mil, Phil, Laa, Chc
5/29
Tb

[Reno Gambler]

GAME ONES
PHIL -117 BET: 2.00 WIN: 1.70
NYM -160 BET: 2.00 WIN: 1.25
CHC -152 BET: 2.00 WIN: 1.30
LAA -150 BET: 2.00 WIN: 1.35

**STL +113 BET: 2.00 WIN: 2.25. This should be MIL -123 BET 2.00 WIN 1.63. I hit the wrong number on the kiosk.**

[Reno Gambler]

Game 1
MIL WON chase stop would of bet 2.00 won 1.63

NYM WON chase stop

Game 2
CHC -152
PHIL -150
LAA -185
Early lines will bet 4.00 for each game.