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**jt4545** · 05-02-2009, 11:04 AM

good luck today

**Kaptain** · 05-02-2009, 11:11 AM

gl today StarDust....I'm anxious to see who you like in the NBA tonight.....best to ya my man and thanks

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2009, 11:11 AM

A fishy line on the total being the last serveral games has gone OT....but i'll go with the over again and won't bite on the Under.....

Saturday, May 2Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Chicago +6.5 500 *****
Boston - Over 196.5 500 *****

===============================================

Saturday, May 2Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +120 500 *****
Washington - Over 5.5 500 *****

Chicago - 9:00 PM ET Vancouver -140 500
Vancouver - Over 5 500 *****

Good Luck !

**Kaptain** · 05-02-2009, 11:54 AM

gl today Star Dust.....I can't figure how so many close games, OT and 2xOT, decided by one posession, and now Boston is a heavy 6 1/2 pt fav....

You know the PUBLIC is goona be all over Chi + 6 1/2, and I think that is waht the oddsmakers wanted.....

a 3-4 line would have probably balanced out the plays....IMO

scary game, but I think Boston takes charge here....

GL my man

**GOLDENGREEK** · 05-02-2009, 02:17 PM

Game 1 the line was 8 1/2 , game 2 the same , game 5 it was 7 1/2

6 1/2 is the right #

GL

**StarDust Bum** · 05-02-2009, 02:25 PM

Some may say that a series going down to the wire this early on in the playoffs can only mean trouble for the winner once advancement is said and done. But for others, the best of seven between Boston and Chicago fits the bill as one of the more memorable moments in basketball’s rich history. The best part about this matchup; we’ve still got Game 7 to witness and wager on.

In yet another overtime scenario (triple OT to be exact), several events culminated in favor of the Bulls. The first event was a tremendous, highlight of the year type block of Rajon Rando’s 12-foot jumper from the outreached hands of rookie of the year, Derek Rose with seven seconds left. Then came Roses’ two huge misses from the free throw line with the clock stopped at three seconds. Boston’s Rondo heaved a half-court shot as time expired, missing the hardware and finally ending what was one exhausting evening in the NBA.

As unpredictable as the series has been from specific plays to the final outcome, gamblers have been driven to drink. We’ve found out that the pendulum continues to swing as rotating wins and losses against the spread has made handicapping this event that much more difficult.

The Bulls do own the edge in the ATS department. A 3-2-1 ATS record in the six games played isn’t much to sink our teeth into. On top of that, books have set spreads from 8 ½ in favor of the Celtics in Game 1 to just three points taken away from Chicago on Thursday night.

Then there’s the totals’ success. Not only has the ‘over’ gone 5-1 thanks to four overtime contests, but two more ‘over’ plays in the last two head-to-head games during the regular season raises the outcome to 7-1 on the ‘over’ in the last eight games. And the trends don’t stop there. Stretching a bit is an 8-2 record on the ‘over’ in the Bulls’ last 10 first round games in the playoffs and a 17-7 tab on the ‘over’ in the last 24 as a road underdog of 6 ½ to nine points.

That brings us to the spread in Game 7. Most books have opened the Celtics as 6 ½-point home favorites. The total installed hasn’t changed much down the stretch, currently being listed at 196 ½. Looking at the bigger picture has both clubs above the .500 wagering mark as Boston is 10-5 and Chicago is 16-9 on the ‘over’ when the total has been set between 195 and 199 ½-points.

Not to overload your computing skills but the Bulls’ 30-13 record on the ‘over’ versus winning teams and the Celtics’ 15-7 performance on the ‘over’ after coming off a loss are just two more figures which could be sending us to the counter in a hurry.

But as well as these trends read on paper, once tip-off commences at 8:00 p.m. EST the players, tempo and momentum of the game will ultimately dictate if our tickets are winners or just worthless pieces of paper.

We can theorize several points which could help us utilize several tactics before printing winning tickets. For starters, Chicago can best be characterized as a squad full of youth and above the rim talent. They’ve been playing at a blistering pace, scoring 100-plus points 21 times in the last 27 games. Maybe a pace factor of 93.1, a number that estimates team possessions over the course of 48 minutes, during the regular season should have given us some evidence of what was to develop in the playoffs, end-to-end action.

And the buck doesn’t stop here as Chicago is also 11-5 on the ‘over’ in the last 16 games as a visiting underdog. Ok, I’m sure you’re getting the point. Whether it’s based on pace factor, the trends which could fill up an encyclopedia or players like the Bulls’ John Salmons, Derrick Rose or Ben Gordon showing up to lead the team in points, the bottom line is we’re dealing with an ‘over’ eclipse. Let’s close out this talk about totals by stating that the Bulls are 9-4 on the ‘over’ after entering their next game off a SU win at home.

Much of the focus has been on Chicago so far in this report given the surprises that this team has already dished out to the defending champions. But let’s not forget that even without Kevin Garnett on the floor, Boston is getting solid offensive performance from Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo (despite scoring just eight points in Game 6). The problem for the Celtics is the defensive presence that Garnett brings to the table. And that presence problem, or lack thereof, has surprisingly reared its head exclusively in the playoffs where Boston has allowed Chicago to tack on an average of 113.2 PPG. This is opposed to allowing 96.4 PPG during the regular season in 23 games that had Garnett sitting in suits.
John Salmons was Chicago's high scorer on Thursday, posting 35 points in almost 60 minutes of play. (Getty Images)

As for who wins straight out, and more importantly who can cover the 6 ½-points, we can revert back to last year when Boston went 2-0 SU in Game 7’s at home but were an even 1-1 ATS. Going further back reveals that the Celtics were blown out of the water at home in the 2004-05 conference quarterfinals, losing 97-70 as four-point favorites. Reggie Miller and the Pacers were able to outscore their counterparts in every single quarter while holding down Boston to shooting 37-percent from the field.

Chicago has seen it's fair share of moments in this same spot but with different results. In the eight total games played in Game 7 scenarios, the Bulls have gone 3-5. But the most interesting of facts is that Chi-Town has yet to take a Game 7 from an opponent on the road.

This will be the 101st Game 7 that has taken place in the history of the NBA. Putting this in perspective, only six of those 100 games extended past regulation. Coming full circle, Boston was in two of those magical moments (1957 and 1962), winning outright.

Some numbers which go against Boston’s chances at covering are a 6-16 ATS record in the last 22 home games where the total has been set between 195 and 199 ½ and a 1-6 ATS slump in the last seven when coming off a SU loss on the road in a home contest.

The real question to ask yourself is can Game 7 truly live up to the expectations that the series has crafted? If not then we’ll remember this first round, best of seven as just another handful of games that set the playoffs in motion.

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