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Hello, it has been a while. My job kind of took over my life a couple of years ago when I accepted a promotion and moved to DC from NYC. Anyway – hopefully I am back as an everyday guy here at BC now that things are settled back to a nice steady rhythm.
Anyway, for the last year I have been tracking predictive fantasy baseball sites (like accuscore and baseball prospectus). I am applying the nate silver approach and taking their predictions and then modifying them by how often their predictions are accurate. This produces a % chance to win which is then compared to the moneyline value. Those are the games I play. I have been playing it in April on paper only – not real money to try and tweak the system. I think it is BS to talk on BC about how any picks have gone if they aren’t posted here - so I won’t say. But I do believe that it has a chance to work out pretty well based on the numbers. So here goes.
I play the same amount for everygame all season. For the sake of easy tracking – lets use 1unit a game here at BC. (Fav’s I risk 1unit to win less, Dogs I risk 1 unit to win more). Lines are from BC sponsor BetJamaica and are accurate to the time picks are placed on BC. All games are listed pitchers. I’ll try to post everyday. Record will always ONLY include games posted in the first post of my thread (no added games ever). Lets see how it goes. I plan on sticking this season out even if it loses since I think the principle can be tweaked into a winner. So, if nothing else –I hope I can provide some data on a system like this at the end of the season. Generally there are 0-5 games a day that make the cut…
May 1, 2009
STL +110 ( T Wellemeyer / J Zimmerman)
KC +160 (S Ponson / K Slowey)
NYM -104 (M Pelfrey / C Park)
DET -162 (C Pavano -R / A Galarraga)
CIN +115 (B Arroyo / Z Duke)
Good luck to all the old friends and new faces on the bases…
2009 MLB
Win:0 Loss: 0 0% 0.00 Units
Anyway, for the last year I have been tracking predictive fantasy baseball sites (like accuscore and baseball prospectus). I am applying the nate silver approach and taking their predictions and then modifying them by how often their predictions are accurate. This produces a % chance to win which is then compared to the moneyline value. Those are the games I play. I have been playing it in April on paper only – not real money to try and tweak the system. I think it is BS to talk on BC about how any picks have gone if they aren’t posted here - so I won’t say. But I do believe that it has a chance to work out pretty well based on the numbers. So here goes.
I play the same amount for everygame all season. For the sake of easy tracking – lets use 1unit a game here at BC. (Fav’s I risk 1unit to win less, Dogs I risk 1 unit to win more). Lines are from BC sponsor BetJamaica and are accurate to the time picks are placed on BC. All games are listed pitchers. I’ll try to post everyday. Record will always ONLY include games posted in the first post of my thread (no added games ever). Lets see how it goes. I plan on sticking this season out even if it loses since I think the principle can be tweaked into a winner. So, if nothing else –I hope I can provide some data on a system like this at the end of the season. Generally there are 0-5 games a day that make the cut…
May 1, 2009
STL +110 ( T Wellemeyer / J Zimmerman)
KC +160 (S Ponson / K Slowey)
NYM -104 (M Pelfrey / C Park)
DET -162 (C Pavano -R / A Galarraga)
CIN +115 (B Arroyo / Z Duke)
Good luck to all the old friends and new faces on the bases…
2009 MLB
Win:0 Loss: 0 0% 0.00 Units
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