Hedge / Bailout question

[Chado1]

Heres the deal. I have a San Jose / Detroit series parlay that I bet $320 to win $200 on. Detroit has already won their series but San Jose is losing 3-2. San Jose's opponent is Anaheim and they are -175 right now to win the series. I really am unsure that San Jose comes back to win this series so these are the two options I am looking at:

1 b) Wager $350 to win $200 on Anaheim for a loss of $125 if they win as opposed to the $320 I have pending...

1 a) If I do the above and San Jose wins the series I lose $150 as opposed to the $320 I have pending...

2 a) Wager $175 to win $100 on Anaheim for a loss $220 as opposed to $320 if they win the series...

2 b) If I do the above and San Jose wins the series I actually profit $25...

And the final option woud be to let it ride as San Jose is favored in game 6 on the road @ -130 and will be about -220 at home in game 7 if they win game 6....however would be risking the potential full $320 loss...

[Chado1]

Also note that I am already 2-0 for $150 on playoff series wagers and I have 3 others pending that are in control of coming through as 3 more winners so would this change your decision at all based on how well I am doing with the others?

New Jersey to win $265 to win $200 LEADING SERIES 3-2

Chicago to win $150 to win $100 LEADING SERIES 3-2

New York to win $50 to win $90 LEADING SERIES 3-2

[MR Pain]

hey bud considering we are in good shape with those 3 that are up 3-2, i say wait until today is over, hopefully we get the n.y/ n.j sweep and then option 2a and b sound good to me, just get a little back but ride out the sharks just in case they pull it off. (if you feel you truly just want it back and want nothing to do with the sharks then go with option 1)


we have talked many times about the sharks and what happens every year, and i'm telling you chado could be just a feeling, but i got a feeling they get it back to the tank, then we gotta take it from there ya know. after that goal last night there was a different feeling, sense of now or never which i never get from sharks.

[weazel079]

Let it ride. I have a feeling the Sharks pull it off. Game 6 is for the series. If it goes back to San Jose for game 7 I'm pretty confident they will win.

[mavskidd02]

Question:
If San Jose forces Game 7, what do you anticipate that line (gm. 7) to be??

Because if it is what I expect, I have a strategy that might help.

[Chado1]

Question:
If San Jose forces Game 7, what do you anticipate that line (gm. 7) to be??

Because if it is what I expect, I have a strategy that might help.

San Jose -200-220 IMO...

[mavskidd02]

San Jose -200-220 IMO...

Ok, the next question becomes, if it did go to Game 7, are you confident, like wezel, that SJ, would win that game??

Because if so, it really becomes a Game 6 hedge, and no longer a series hedge.

[Chado1]

Ok, the next question becomes, if it did go to Game 7, are you confident, like wezel, that SJ, would win that game??

Because if so, it really becomes a Game 6 hedge, and no longer a series hedge.

This is the one other option I left out because taking the Ducks to win game 6 @ +110 would be risky because if they lose it and somehow win game 7 I would have middled myself and lost twice as much with no return...but yea I do feel confident the Sharks would win game 7 at home however even though they would be around -200 its game 7 of the Stanley Cup playoffs so throw everything out the window...game would be a total coin flip and from an odds perspective the value would lie entirely with the Ducks....hhhmmm....

[mavskidd02]

This is the one other option I left out because taking the Ducks to win game 6 @ +110 would be risky because if they lose it and somehow win game 7 I would have middled myself and lost twice as much with no return...but yea I do feel confident the Sharks would win game 7 at home however even though they would be around -200 its game 7 of the Stanley Cup playoffs so throw everything out the window...game would be a total coin flip and from an odds perspective the value would lie entirely with the Ducks....hhhmmm....

If you are confident in SJ game 7. I would hedge game 6. Laying about 175 to win 220. Hope Anaheim wins, and you only lost yourself a hundred on the bet.

[Chado1]

hey bud considering we are in good shape with those 3 that are up 3-2, i say wait until today is over, hopefully we get the n.y/ n.j sweep and then option 2a and b sound good to me, just get a little back but ride out the sharks just in case they pull it off. (if you feel you truly just want it back and want nothing to do with the sharks then go with option 1)


we have talked many times about the sharks and what happens every year, and i'm telling you chado could be just a feeling, but i got a feeling they get it back to the tank, then we gotta take it from there ya know. after that goal last night there was a different feeling, sense of now or never which i never get from sharks.

Good point brother and thanks for the response...

The fact that I have a chance of potentially going 5-0 on my series wagers with the San Jose one the only one in jeopardy (of course my biggest wager right that how it always seems lol ) I am not as concerned if all the other 5 come in...so yea after today will give me a better perspective of where I am at especially if my second biggest wager of $265 to win $200 on New Jersey comes through....

I also agree about their demeanor when San Jose won last night in OT but I mean damn getting shutout twice in this series and then blowing a 2-0 third period lead at home in an elimation game and squeaking it out barely in OT to stay alive doesnt leave me very confident in them....

[Chado1]

Let it ride. I have a feeling the Sharks pull it off. Game 6 is for the series. If it goes back to San Jose for game 7 I'm pretty confident they will win.

But you are an Anaheim fan..

J/k man I do agree about this series is all about game 6 in Anaheim just like New York today if they dont win this afternoon at home I really dont see them winning game 7 on the road in Washington....

[Chado1]

If you are confident in SJ game 7. I would hedge game 6. Laying about 175 to win 220. Hope Anaheim wins, and you only lost yourself a hundred on the bet.

The only problem with this is that yes I would only lose $100 overall if they won game 6 however if they did not and won game 7 in San Jose (which anything could happen) that I could potentially lose $495 as opposed to the $320 I am trying to bailout or hedge from....

[Chado1]

Is there anyway I could hedge twice and take the Ducks in BOTH game 6 and 7 theres an idea??

[MR Pain]

This is the one other option I left out because taking the Ducks to win game 6 @ +110 would be risky because if they lose it and somehow win game 7 I would have middled myself and lost twice as much with no return...but yea I do feel confident the Sharks would win game 7 at home however even though they would be around -200 its game 7 of the Stanley Cup playoffs so throw everything out the window...game would be a total coin flip and from an odds perspective the value would lie entirely with the Ducks....hhhmmm....

chado me and you both know if there is one team not to mess with in the playoffs it's the sharks, take the series and be safe, don't take game 6. we both know that all the pressure in the world will be on the sharks if they get it back to the tank for game 7 not the ducks as most people would think.

i would take the series or ride out game 6 and then take anheim if it goes to game 7. you should get +200 if it goes to game 7. sharks have been -220 at home all series, if it goes to game 7 it will be -250, -270 range i think.

[MR Pain]

Is there anyway I could hedge twice and take the Ducks in BOTH game 6 and 7 theres an idea??

you could throw just a bit on ducks for series now, and if sharks get it back to the tank like i said you will have +200 odds +190 at least for game 7, then throw a little on that at the dog price.

you would be taking more of a chance that it goes to game 7 that's the only added risk with this way.