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  • Bowl Predictions

    Hello again!

    I hope you had a profitable holiday!!

    Those of you who did your homework and followed my Math Model went 3-0-1 at the worst and possibly 4-0 if you got 64.5 for the Hawaii -Tulane Total that was available most of the day.

    For those of you who want to know, the math Model predicted a N Texas cover and the UNDER but lost Louisville in the Louisville - Marshall Game.

    That would make the Model 5-1-1 so far in bowl games that differ 3 pts from the line for sides and 7 points difference for totals.

    New Mexico 15.5
    UCLA 29.9 (-10.5 & 54.5) 3.9 points difference for UCLA --WINNER! 9.1 points UNDER the Total -- Winner!

    Tulane 24.0
    Hawaii 31.6 (-11.5 & 64) The line jumped to -13.5 for Hawaii today making this play stronger for the underdog!!!
    5.9 points line value for Tulane -- Outright Winner!
    8.4 points UNDER the Total -- PUSH

    Toledo 22.5
    Boston College 28.4 (-4 & 60) 9.1 Points UNDER the total

    Oregon St 22.5
    Pittsburgh 19 (2.5 & 45.5)

    So Miss 18.8
    Oklahoma St 23.6 (-7 & 48.5) we need 49.5 to consider the UNDER a play

    Arizona St 20.2
    Kansas St 36.5 (-18 & 62.5) we need 64 to consider the UNDER play

    Mississippi 23.7
    Nebraska 27.2 (-7 & 50.5) Consider Mississippi

    Virginia 24.6
    West Virginia 27.9 (-5 & 50.5) we need WVA -6.5 to consider Virginia a play

    Wisconsin 17.4
    Colorado 26.7 (-7.5 & 52.5) 8.4 points UNDER the total

    More to come this weekend.....do your research....don't play the math model blindly....It's a good basis to start justifying a play. If you go against the model you had better have solid reasons....it's 58% accurate against the spread over the years. I'll be back with more bowl projections on this weekend.

    Good Luck!

    Greg Sullivan
    www.5starsportstrends.com
    Your Source in Sports Trend Research

  • #2
    Here is another update for all Bowl Games through New year's Eve....

    The Math Model is currently 6-3-1 ATS so far in bowl games where the difference in projected score differs by 3 or more points from the line or when the projected total differs from the OVER/UNDER by 7 points or more.

    For those of you who want to know, the math Model predicted a N Texas cover and the UNDER but lost Louisville in the Louisville - Marshall Game.


    New Mexico 15.5
    UCLA 29.9 (-10.5 & 54.5) 3.9 points difference for UCLA --WINNER! 9.1 points UNDER the Total -- Winner!

    Tulane 24.0
    Hawaii 31.6 (-11.5 & 64) The line jumped to -13.5 for Hawaii today making this play stronger for the underdog!!!
    5.9 points line value for Tulane -- Outright Winner!
    8.4 points UNDER the Total -- PUSH

    Toledo 22.5
    Boston College 28.4 (-4 & 60) 9.1 Points UNDER the total - LOSER

    Oregon St 22.5
    Pittsburgh 19 (1 & 45)

    So Miss 18.8
    Oklahoma St 23.6 (-9.5 & 48) 4.7 Points for So Miss Loser by 1/2 point!

    Arizona St 20.2
    Kansas St 36.5 (-18 & 62.5)

    Mississippi 23.7
    Nebraska 27.2 (-7 & 52.5) 3.5 points line value for Mississippi-- Outright Winner!

    Virginia 24.6
    West Virginia 27.9 (-5 & 51) we need WVA -6.5 to consider Virginia a play

    Wisconsin 17.4
    Colorado 26.7 (-7.5 & 52.5) 8.4 points UNDER the total

    Minnesota 19.7
    Arkansas 32.2 (-8.5 & 47.5) 4 points line value for Arkansas

    Wake Forest 26.0
    Oregon 32.8 (-7 & 57)

    Iowa St 28.5
    Boise St 36.8 (-11.5 & 68.5) 3.2 points line value for Iowa St

    Purdue 24.6
    Washington 28.8 (-3 & 58) we need 60.5 to consider the UNDER

    TCU 27.2
    Colorado St 29.5 (-5 & 53) We need Colorado St -5.5 to consider TCU a play

    Fresno St 19.1
    Georgia Tech 22.5 (-3.5 & 49) 7.4 points Line value for the UNDER

    Maryland 21.4
    Tennessee 17.9 (1.5 & 47) 7.7 points line value for the UNDER

    Air Force 23.9
    Virginia Tech 33.1 (-11.5 & 54.5)


    If you go against the model you had better have solid reasons....it's 58% accurate against the spread over the years. I'll be back with more New Year's bowl projections on Monday. I'll also break down the Bowl Trends against the spread for you for the New Year's day bowls and those that follow.

    As I have said, the Math Model provides a starting point. Do not play it blindly!!! A perfect example is the predicted UNDER for the Toledo - Boston College game. If you simply look at the scores of the Toledo games and the scores of the previous Boston College games this season, you would see an abundance of 30+ scores this season for each team. With that in mind. the UNDER doesn't make sense so it is best to pass. DO YOUR HOMEWORK!!!!

    We also like the NY Giants plus the points over Philly in Saturday's game. Go to our webpage to see the writeup early saturday morning.

    Good Luck!

    Greg Sullivan
    www.5starsportstrends.com
    Your Source in Sports Trend Research

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