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This was posted by someone at another forum and I agree wholeheartedly.
From my experience over time, betting AGAINST teams which need to win is a better proposition than betting ON teams which need to win.
HANDICAPPING TEAMS THAT NEED TO WIN
This impromptu handicapping lesson was inspired by the Dallas/Phoenix game yesterday afternoon. At the Crowne Club we had our biggest play for the day on Dallas.
It was no secret that Phoenix NEEDED to win yesterday's game to get into the Playoffs. The closer we get to the playoffs, the more that bettors and handicappers will talk about teams "needing the game."
Why would I play Dallas when Phoenix needed the game? Because the posted line was set too low. The main reason that the line was too low was probably that everyone knew that Phoenix needed the game.
RULE: Needing to win does absoutely nothing to increase a team's ability to win.
The lack of a need to win, perhaps because a team has clinched or been eliminated from the playoffs, may cause a team not to play up to its abilities. They may relax, not care, or rest players. There is no limit to which a team can lay down on the job if it doesn't need the game. If, on the other hand, a team needs to win, the quality with which the team can play is still limited by the ability of the players.
A perfect example was Shaquille Oneal yesterday. His team needed the game. Shaq went to the free throw line and missed everything -- the basket, the rim, the backboard, EVERYTHING. Needing to win didn't matter. Shaq is a disgrace at the free throw line, whether or not his team needs the game. Needing to win did not suddenly turn him into a great shooter from the line.
Need cannot, however, be ignored completely. You can assume that the team that needs the game will play up to its full potential. But if that potential is not sufficient to beat the other team, the fact that the team with lesser ability needs the win is not a reason to bet them.
If Dallas had clinched or been eliminated, then maybe Phoenix would have had a chance -- not because they were the better team, not because the needed to win, but because Dallas wouldn't have needed the game, and therefore may not have played up to its full abilities. But Dallas had not clinched, and they had not been eliminated. Dallas had no reason to let down, and they handicapped to win. Based on the statistical comparison, if both Dallas and Phoenix play up to their full ability, Dallas should win and cover. Neither team had any reason not to play up to its full ability. Why should the fact that Phoenix will be eliminated if they don't win change the fact that they handicap to lose unless Dallas doesn't try?
Even if Dallas had been in a position in which they might let down, the fact that Phoenix needed the game still would not be the basis for a bet. The reason is that you can't rely on the team that doesn't need the game letting down. They may, of course, announce that they will be resting their starters. In that case, the comparative abilities change, and the line changes. The team that needs the game might now have the better abilities, but they might not. You still need the statistical handicap to tell you that. When you bet against a team only because they don't need the game and might let down, you are hoping that the possibility they won't play up to their abilities will become a reality. Hope is not a valid handicapping or betting thesis.
If, on the other hand, the team that needs the game also handicaps, on a statistical basis, to cover the spread, then you should win your wager whether the opponent lets down or not. If the opponent does let down. our bet becomes better.
Handicapping always has two steps:
1. Determine the comparative abilities of the teams.
2. Determine the probability that each team will play up to those abilities.
You will not win long term trying to bet on teams that fail to qualify under either of these steps. You can't count on a team that handicaps to have the ability to win doing so if they don't have the desire, and you also can't count on desire to win causing a team that handicaps to lose to win instead.
RULE: Never bet against the better team because they don't need the game.
RULE: Never on the lesser team because they need to win.
When the team that needs the win also handicaps to have the ability to cover, you can bet on the team, but be careful. Whenever everyone knows a team needs the game, the linemaker will skew the spread against that team in order to even out public action. When you bet on the team that needs the game, you are always getting the worst of it from the standpoint of the line.
When, on the other hand, you bet against the team that needs the game because the other team is the better team, as we at the Crowne Club did today with Dallas, you are always getting the best of the line. Nothing could be better than betting on the team that handicaps to win and cover at a better. and also getting a line that has been adjusted to that team's advantage.
RULE: As we get closer to the playoffs, seek to bet the better teams that have not yet clinched or been eliminated, against any lesser team playing for its survival.
Following the above rule may be a bit anti-intuitive, but that's why you will be consistently getting the best of the line, and if you follow the rule you will have a significantly better win expectation.
From my experience over time, betting AGAINST teams which need to win is a better proposition than betting ON teams which need to win.
HANDICAPPING TEAMS THAT NEED TO WIN
This impromptu handicapping lesson was inspired by the Dallas/Phoenix game yesterday afternoon. At the Crowne Club we had our biggest play for the day on Dallas.
It was no secret that Phoenix NEEDED to win yesterday's game to get into the Playoffs. The closer we get to the playoffs, the more that bettors and handicappers will talk about teams "needing the game."
Why would I play Dallas when Phoenix needed the game? Because the posted line was set too low. The main reason that the line was too low was probably that everyone knew that Phoenix needed the game.
RULE: Needing to win does absoutely nothing to increase a team's ability to win.
The lack of a need to win, perhaps because a team has clinched or been eliminated from the playoffs, may cause a team not to play up to its abilities. They may relax, not care, or rest players. There is no limit to which a team can lay down on the job if it doesn't need the game. If, on the other hand, a team needs to win, the quality with which the team can play is still limited by the ability of the players.
A perfect example was Shaquille Oneal yesterday. His team needed the game. Shaq went to the free throw line and missed everything -- the basket, the rim, the backboard, EVERYTHING. Needing to win didn't matter. Shaq is a disgrace at the free throw line, whether or not his team needs the game. Needing to win did not suddenly turn him into a great shooter from the line.
Need cannot, however, be ignored completely. You can assume that the team that needs the game will play up to its full potential. But if that potential is not sufficient to beat the other team, the fact that the team with lesser ability needs the win is not a reason to bet them.
If Dallas had clinched or been eliminated, then maybe Phoenix would have had a chance -- not because they were the better team, not because the needed to win, but because Dallas wouldn't have needed the game, and therefore may not have played up to its full abilities. But Dallas had not clinched, and they had not been eliminated. Dallas had no reason to let down, and they handicapped to win. Based on the statistical comparison, if both Dallas and Phoenix play up to their full ability, Dallas should win and cover. Neither team had any reason not to play up to its full ability. Why should the fact that Phoenix will be eliminated if they don't win change the fact that they handicap to lose unless Dallas doesn't try?
Even if Dallas had been in a position in which they might let down, the fact that Phoenix needed the game still would not be the basis for a bet. The reason is that you can't rely on the team that doesn't need the game letting down. They may, of course, announce that they will be resting their starters. In that case, the comparative abilities change, and the line changes. The team that needs the game might now have the better abilities, but they might not. You still need the statistical handicap to tell you that. When you bet against a team only because they don't need the game and might let down, you are hoping that the possibility they won't play up to their abilities will become a reality. Hope is not a valid handicapping or betting thesis.
If, on the other hand, the team that needs the game also handicaps, on a statistical basis, to cover the spread, then you should win your wager whether the opponent lets down or not. If the opponent does let down. our bet becomes better.
Handicapping always has two steps:
1. Determine the comparative abilities of the teams.
2. Determine the probability that each team will play up to those abilities.
You will not win long term trying to bet on teams that fail to qualify under either of these steps. You can't count on a team that handicaps to have the ability to win doing so if they don't have the desire, and you also can't count on desire to win causing a team that handicaps to lose to win instead.
RULE: Never bet against the better team because they don't need the game.
RULE: Never on the lesser team because they need to win.
When the team that needs the win also handicaps to have the ability to cover, you can bet on the team, but be careful. Whenever everyone knows a team needs the game, the linemaker will skew the spread against that team in order to even out public action. When you bet on the team that needs the game, you are always getting the worst of it from the standpoint of the line.
When, on the other hand, you bet against the team that needs the game because the other team is the better team, as we at the Crowne Club did today with Dallas, you are always getting the best of the line. Nothing could be better than betting on the team that handicaps to win and cover at a better. and also getting a line that has been adjusted to that team's advantage.
RULE: As we get closer to the playoffs, seek to bet the better teams that have not yet clinched or been eliminated, against any lesser team playing for its survival.
Following the above rule may be a bit anti-intuitive, but that's why you will be consistently getting the best of the line, and if you follow the rule you will have a significantly better win expectation.
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