Looking for better way to handicap baseball

[frankb03]

How far back does this go?

2004 Season

[tech fan]

wow frank. Thanks for that one, that's real interesting. Is it just me or do you have every stat known to mankind?

yes he knows every stat.he was one of the great people that made this site what it is today.would love it if he stopped in alot more.

[Tnbreakers]

I have followed this site for years and I have always looked for Frank's info!!! Best there is!!

[frankb03]

Unlike opening day avoid teams Home Favorites playing their home opener.

[Filbert]

Here is what I do which worked well for me last year, I read this from a pro gambler in Vegas and decided to try it out.

Once a few weeks are through I take a look at the lines. I only look at small favorites up to -150(-150 is as large as I will go.) I write down all those games then head over to USATODAY. on the sprts page you will find something called the Sagarin Ratings. I go to the Pitching stats on the Sagarin Ratings. The Sagarin ratings encompass all the obscure Sabrmetrics that are much more influential in determining a pitchers season long credibility. Take a look today and you won't see much but it's worth glancing at to get familiar with how it works.

Here is the key: You right down your pitchers and if any of them are in the top 20 of the Sagarin ratings then circle them as long as your pitching opponent is also not in the Top 20. If your guy is higher then the opponent but they are both in the top 20 then I will only play if the discrepancy between is about 112 or higher.

(In other words say you have a game with Johan Santana pitching against Derek Lowe, unless the ratings have Johan as #2 rated and Lowe is rated #14 or higher I skip this game) (Also you will see that the ratings get stronger every day it weeds out all the fraud pitchers that had a flukey good start or two so keep that in mind early in the season.) (Also you will notice that their are some very underrated pitchers that have value throughout the season.)

These are your prospects.

Now that you have your prospects you will take a look at the opposition. If they are on a Winning streak of 3 games or more, cross it off we don't play against streaking teams( no matter how much you love it.)

Now you take a look at your team - if your team has lost more then 3 in a row you do not take them (even though, you know they are going to break the streak today do not break your laws!)

Now you should have maybe 1 or 2 games. These are the games, they come every day and this really has been successful for me for the following reasons:

1.)Your following only reasonable favorites with no emotion.
2.)Your following only good pitchers based on all the best Sabermetric ratings to really feel a pitcher out(making this more of a science takes emotion out of the game and it can be run similar to a business) betting with emotion in baseball will crush you.
3.)you never bet against a hot streak or with a cold streak. (In sports its very tough to find out who is hot or not but in baseball you get a better feel cuz they play almost every day)

Notes: If I find a team that fits my matrix and is on a winning streak and the other team is on a losing streak I will up my bets and play a -1 line.

For those who don't know to make your bet a -1 line you Bet say 200 on the Run Line and then you Risk 200 on the Money Line. If your red hot team with a solid pitcher wins by two then you will clear a nice chunk If you lose the game then you lose. But if your team wins by one your break even or push. I have utilized this method on a lot of occassions with great success throughout the season.

Real quick: I know you will see this is only my second post but I have been a member of BC since around 2002. I had another user name which for whatever reason never let me post or anything so I was just a viewer. Consistently this site has some of the best cappers, I have always followed Kaptain,LibertyPl,Spark and a few other that are escaping my mind. Best of Luck and I hope this helps, its all about taking the emotion out of your bets, using common sense still and not over betting!!

Good Luck

[mavskidd02]

Here is what I do which worked well for me last year, I read this from a pro gambler in Vegas and decided to try it out.

Once a few weeks are through I take a look at the lines. I only look at small favorites up to -150(-150 is as large as I will go.) I write down all those games then head over to USATODAY. on the sprts page you will find something called the Sagarin Ratings. I go to the Pitching stats on the Sagarin Ratings. The Sagarin ratings encompass all the obscure Sabrmetrics that are much more influential in determining a pitchers season long credibility. Take a look today and you won't see much but it's worth glancing at to get familiar with how it works.

Here is the key: You right down your pitchers and if any of them are in the top 20 of the Sagarin ratings then circle them as long as your pitching opponent is also not in the Top 20. If your guy is higher then the opponent but they are both in the top 20 then I will only play if the discrepancy between is about 112 or higher.

(In other words say you have a game with Johan Santana pitching against Derek Lowe, unless the ratings have Johan as #2 rated and Lowe is rated #14 or higher I skip this game) (Also you will see that the ratings get stronger every day it weeds out all the fraud pitchers that had a flukey good start or two so keep that in mind early in the season.) (Also you will notice that their are some very underrated pitchers that have value throughout the season.)

These are your prospects.

Now that you have your prospects you will take a look at the opposition. If they are on a Winning streak of 3 games or more, cross it off we don't play against streaking teams( no matter how much you love it.)

Now you take a look at your team - if your team has lost more then 3 in a row you do not take them (even though, you know they are going to break the streak today do not break your laws!)

Now you should have maybe 1 or 2 games. These are the games, they come every day and this really has been successful for me for the following reasons:

1.)Your following only reasonable favorites with no emotion.
2.)Your following only good pitchers based on all the best Sabermetric ratings to really feel a pitcher out(making this more of a science takes emotion out of the game and it can be run similar to a business) betting with emotion in baseball will crush you.
3.)you never bet against a hot streak or with a cold streak. (In sports its very tough to find out who is hot or not but in baseball you get a better feel cuz they play almost every day)

Notes: If I find a team that fits my matrix and is on a winning streak and the other team is on a losing streak I will up my bets and play a -1 line.

For those who don't know to make your bet a -1 line you Bet say 200 on the Run Line and then you Risk 200 on the Money Line. If your red hot team with a solid pitcher wins by two then you will clear a nice chunk If you lose the game then you lose. But if your team wins by one your break even or push. I have utilized this method on a lot of occassions with great success throughout the season.

Real quick: I know you will see this is only my second post but I have been a member of BC since around 2002. I had another user name which for whatever reason never let me post or anything so I was just a viewer. Consistently this site has some of the best cappers, I have always followed Kaptain,LibertyPl,Spark and a few other that are escaping my mind. Best of Luck and I hope this helps, its all about taking the emotion out of your bets, using common sense still and not over betting!!

Good Luck

Thanks for the great insight. Do you have the online link for Sagarin rankings? Thanks in advance.

[Filbert]

Jeff Sagarin computer ratings - USATODAY.com

[BettorsChat]

Thanks for the great insight. Do you have the online link for Sagarin rankings? Thanks in advance.

Jeff Sagarin computer ratings - USATODAY.com

[mavskidd02]

Jeff Sagarin computer ratings - USATODAY.com

Jeff Sagarin computer ratings - USATODAY.com

Thanks.

[griswold]

My sacred rules:

1) Never ever bet a favorite over -140. EVER.

2) Play mostly dogs.

3) Avoid teams with bad closers.

4) Never ever play a home team on the run line. Laying extra juice on a team that only bats eight times is a roadmap to the poorhouse.

5) Don't play cold teams. Baseball is a game of streaks.

6) Avoid games with pitchers making their first start after being called up from the minors. If you must play this game, bet on the rookie pitcher.

7) Never play doubleheader games. The managing and handling of pitching is often goofy.

8) The Yankees are always given inflated lines. Beware of betting them.

AND MY GUIDING PRINCIPLE:

Play hot, but bad, teams. The lines never reflect their current form. You can make a fortune playing teams that are +140 night after night but keep winning.

Baseball is a game of streaks. Try to find them and ride them.

[gizmo]

The best thing to do is pik the team that will score the most runs and if this does not work pik the team that will give up the least,never looses for me.

Just kidding,what I like to do is look at the matchups for the series like 3 or 4 game series,than I figure what series are basically going to be pikem games with the 3 games or 4 games not having a line more than -130,than I normally play the home team until they win and double up if I lose.

For instance starting today I would take the Marlins,Rockies,Astros and if any lost I would double up next game.

[aces r wild]

Last year was my most profitable one, +100 units. Actually, it was my only profitable year in Baseball(only been playing for 3 years). What did I do different you ask. I played 90% dogs. When I played a favorite, it wasn't more than -140. Also, I have a local that doesn't know what he's doing. He gives me the same odds for the dog as for the favorite. So, if the Yankees are -200 I'm getting the dog at +200. HUGE ADVANTAGE!!

[Reno Gambler]

Thank you for ALL your help!!

[gizmo]

In my post so its not confusing I put down Astros and it should be St.L because they are home.

[frankb03]

The Real Home Opener

Over the last 5 years Home teams have enjoyed a huge advantage on the season's opening Saturday. Each season has been profitable.

51-22 +$2,595

Home Favorites 34-12 +$1,640