Looking for better way to handicap baseball

[Reno Gambler]

As you can see, my record for baseball was outstanding.....NOT! I'm looking for help!! I'm sticking this out so don't say don't bet on baseball.

[mavskidd02]

IMO, never bet run lines, EVER, is a rule I have to stick to, because IMO they always lose.

[bryce]

IMO, never bet run lines, EVER, is a rule I have to stick to, because IMO they always lose.

If I bet a run line say 1.5 it is usually with the doggie..Follow Spark...he seems to know what he is doing!!
Maybe he will give us his ancient Chinese secret!

[MarkLemke]

follow spark through the ups and the downs...follow him every single day...don't cherry pick...

[BigWeiner]

Fade yourself, and I'm not just joking, you'll probably end playing for dogs, and be up good at the end of the year

[frankb03]

OPENING DAY! Bet Favorites. Favorites reign on opening day. Concentrate on small road favorites of -140 or less. Also look to play mid-range home favorites (-125 to -175).

Avoid all opening day Home Dogs.

After opening day into the first month of the season concentrate on Away Dogs (less than +200). In the past 5 season if a sports bettor blindly bet all these dogs they would have suffered one marginally losing month.

Streaks? On this site we often hear ride the hot team or fade the slumping team. That theory might hold true during the entire season. However, it's partially true early in the season. As noted above we want to look for the Road Dogs. Play them regardless of their losing streak. Avoid them if they have a winning streak of 3 or more games.

After the first month of the season the rules change. Teams and starters settle into the season and rotation.

[frankb03]

STREAKS!

Streaks in relation to favorites and dogs. Teams are favorited for a reason. They are expected to win. Conversely, dogs are expected to lose. The key is knowing which is expected to occur and use it to our advantage.

With favorites there's no clear advantage when to bet favorites during a winning streak. However, avoid favorites like the plague during a losing streak. IMO it involves too much chasing. Bettors chasing losing money figuring the good team (favorite) won't continue to lose. Over the last 5 season if a sports bettor bet all favorites on a 3 or more game losing streak they would have lost in excess of $13,000. These favorites have a .533 Win% while all favorites win at .574.

Even Favorites that are on a 1 game losing streak (not really a streak) have taken a beating. These favorites have lost more than $14,000 over the past 5 seasons. Regardless where the game is played, home or away.

Favorites on a 1 game winning streak haven't fared well. Those are $6600 in the road. In fact favorites on a 1 to 5 game winning streak have lost almost $11,000.

So when do we play favorites? The most astute sports bettor I know is Coverboy. He always preached never lay more than -140. Start with Favorites less than -140 (excluding favorites @ -140) on a 2 or more game winning streak. We can further refine these favorites with a lean towards home favorites.

[mavskidd02]

WOW frank. Thank you. And if you have anything else you want to share, please do, I will read every word. Thanks again.

[tech fan]

One major thing to look out for when capping baseball is the home plate umpire.this gets overlooked alot in betting.you can find the stats on the home plate umpire here that monte has provided the link.if you get an umpire that makes a guy throw it right down the middle and does not give the corner strike that hurts alot of guys like glavine lackey etc...

[mavskidd02]

One major thing to look out for when capping baseball is the home plate umpire.this gets overlooked alot in betting.you can find the stats on the home plate umpire here that monte has provided the link.if you get an umpire that makes a guy throw it right down the middle and does not give the corner strike that hurts alot of guys like glavine lackey etc...

Whats that link buddy? I'd appreciate it, thanks.

[jaunblaze6]

My opinion on MLB

I personally love betting baseball and I have done better in it than every other sport. The key for me is a few things, but the biggest rule of thumb is you have to be in it every, single day, no exceptions.

You need to know which teams are hitting, scoring at the moment, you need to know which teams have strong pitching, lock down bull pens at the moment, etc. A great tool is to always know pitching match-ups (starting) and the outcomes and then what happened after the starters left the game, if they did in fact.

The daily "newsletter" found at the top of the BC forum is awesome for baseball news and staying current. I strongly encourage you to read this fully each day prior to wagering.

Last thing is to bet streaks, which have been very profitable for me. Good example is last year when Astros won like 7 in a row trying to get in wild card race....i cashed them every night and even lost them in the 8th game, but oh well, i was 7-1 over that streak....

One last thought to consider is watch and listen to as many games as possible, it'll help you be in the know and follow current trends and happenings, etc.

As a rule of thumb, I don't bet any favorite over -180 and if I love a game that much, i'll talk the run line with the thinking that a team favored by that much should win by more than 1....

anyway, i hope this helps you somewhat, but still the key is, you gotta be in this game everyday...

one more note, i bough the mlb.com radio package last year for like 4.99/month and you can listen to home or away anouncers for every game from your phone and that always helped catching a bit of a few games per day...

Best of luck to you in whatever you chose to do....

"Good pitching all beats good hitting" - I know i said i was done with this post, but i also believe my quote....the stud pitchers are reliable for the most part even if they don't get much run support

[elevenblack301]

I just pick a few teams and lay money on them when they are away from home, better odds.... the best teams ( who are they this year ) will never get swept ( almost never ), so sometimes I see how the first game goes in a series and then lay the number... in the second and third away games....

Then I keep saying to myself FOOTBALL IS AROUND THE CORNER ...LOL ...gl

[garth]

Here are a few of my thoughts on handicapping totals, FWIW...

1. Umpires - look at overall O/U stats for the umpire. Early in the year, look at last year's stats since there's not a big enough sample yet. Look at their O/U stats against a certain total. I like to also look at their avg number of pitches in games they're BHP. If it's over about 300 that stat favors an over for me depending on the number. I also look at the percentage of pitches they call strikes. Over about 62 or 63, I look deeper into the under.

2. ERA last 3 of the two starters is an important stat, unless the 3d game back this number is skewed by a pitcher having a really bad outing.

3. Look at how many innings the starters have been going to get an idea of how much the bullpen might come into play in the total. then look at the bullpen numbers. A shitty bullpen obviously can blow an under quickly.

4. A lineup's numbers against RHP and LHP can be an important piece. Even more importantly, I think, I like to look at the lineup's numbers against the opposing starter. Mlb.com has those stats in their preview. If there are several good hitters who have a good sample of AB's against the opposing starter, these numbers are even more relevant.

5. Applying the concept, 'value', ask yourself if the set total may be skewed just a little because of a particular starter(s) being involved. This concept is not as important in baseball though, since if the score is 1-0 or 2-1, whether the total is set at 6.5 or 7.5 doesn't really matter.

6. the importance of yards...I seldom bet overs in Safeco, Petco, or Tropicana. I like to look at unders in Mariners home games early in the year. I seldom bet unders in Arlington. Even if the wind is blowing in, I'm told by the locals that the wind swirls in that park. Looking at wind direction in relation to the orientation of the yard is, however, obviously one totals handicapping factor in baseball.

7. If possible, look at the starter's past performance over time in a particular yard.

8. I do look at trends but not as much as some do.

OK, that's about enough of my babbling. good luck this season in hardball.

[bryce]

A lot of good info here! Damn!! Good job guys!

[Three Jack]

Bump!!!