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after not posting plays for a while...figured I would get back at it....
today's plays:
1-unit plays
UNC/OKLAHOMA under 164
the public always plays these marquee games “over” the total. Secondly, the “over” hit in both of yesterday’s Elite Eight games and the “over” is 5-1 in the Tournament since Friday. Thirdly, both the Sooners and Tar Heels have been scoring at will in the Big Dance, and both topped the total in their victories on Friday.
But you see, this is the exact reason why the “under” is so attractive today. We all know that when the public lines up on one side of a particular play that the other side is almost always the way to go. And because the “over” is going to take so much action today, the oddsmakers had to inflate this line.
When you get down to it, it’s extremely difficult for a 40-minute college game to be played in the mid-160s or higher. That means, in essence, that both teams have to score well into the 80s. That ain’t easy. In fact, when you consider that only two of Oklahoma’s last 14 games have gone over 160 points and that North Carolina hadn’t exceeded 160 in five straight games before Friday’s win over Gonzaga, this basically is a very strong “value” play.
2-unit play:
LOUISVILLE/MSU OVER 138
The Cardinals have averaged 85.3 ppg in the tourney and 79.5 ppg since their blowout loss to the Irish. The Cardinal have averaged 80.2 ppg in their last 5and hve shot 51% ovr that stretch, plus they have put up 70+ points in 10 of their last 13. Ok that's a little over half of what we need. Now if we can get 70 out of the Spartans, then this will be a cake walk. Michigan State has put up 72 ppg on the year, including 71.6 ppg on neutral floors and 72.6 ppg in the Tourney
Michigan State has been OVER the total in 2 of their 3 Big Dance games, and 3 of their last 4 dating back to the Big 10 tournament. We get the feeling that for the Spartans to hang with the Cardinals, they are going to be forced into showing some offensive fire power, and we feel that even if they get blown out, there will be enough points coming from the Louisville side for us to get this game in the OVER column.
Louisville sailed way OVER the price in their Sweet 16 laugher against Arizona, and they have now played HIGH in 3 of their last 4 dating back to the Big East tourney, and are on a 9-4 OVER clip their last 13 games when installed as the favorite.
3-unit play:
Louisville -6.5
Michigan State was more than lucky to get by Kansas on Friday, as it is not likely they will go on another 12-2 run to close the game today and win outright.
The Spartans have too many scoring droughts during the course of the 40 minutes
4-unit play:
UNC TAR HEELS -7
North Carolina is simply playing now on another level. The pieces of the puzzle have fallen into place, and not even the great Blake Griffin and his double-doubles are going to save the Sooners from exiting in this round, and it won't even be close.
North Carolina can turn it on at will as evidenced by the 17-2 run they put on LSU to run away in that game, and the 12-0 run they put on Gonzaga on Friday to run away in that contest.
today's plays:
1-unit plays
UNC/OKLAHOMA under 164
the public always plays these marquee games “over” the total. Secondly, the “over” hit in both of yesterday’s Elite Eight games and the “over” is 5-1 in the Tournament since Friday. Thirdly, both the Sooners and Tar Heels have been scoring at will in the Big Dance, and both topped the total in their victories on Friday.
But you see, this is the exact reason why the “under” is so attractive today. We all know that when the public lines up on one side of a particular play that the other side is almost always the way to go. And because the “over” is going to take so much action today, the oddsmakers had to inflate this line.
When you get down to it, it’s extremely difficult for a 40-minute college game to be played in the mid-160s or higher. That means, in essence, that both teams have to score well into the 80s. That ain’t easy. In fact, when you consider that only two of Oklahoma’s last 14 games have gone over 160 points and that North Carolina hadn’t exceeded 160 in five straight games before Friday’s win over Gonzaga, this basically is a very strong “value” play.
2-unit play:
LOUISVILLE/MSU OVER 138
The Cardinals have averaged 85.3 ppg in the tourney and 79.5 ppg since their blowout loss to the Irish. The Cardinal have averaged 80.2 ppg in their last 5and hve shot 51% ovr that stretch, plus they have put up 70+ points in 10 of their last 13. Ok that's a little over half of what we need. Now if we can get 70 out of the Spartans, then this will be a cake walk. Michigan State has put up 72 ppg on the year, including 71.6 ppg on neutral floors and 72.6 ppg in the Tourney
Michigan State has been OVER the total in 2 of their 3 Big Dance games, and 3 of their last 4 dating back to the Big 10 tournament. We get the feeling that for the Spartans to hang with the Cardinals, they are going to be forced into showing some offensive fire power, and we feel that even if they get blown out, there will be enough points coming from the Louisville side for us to get this game in the OVER column.
Louisville sailed way OVER the price in their Sweet 16 laugher against Arizona, and they have now played HIGH in 3 of their last 4 dating back to the Big East tourney, and are on a 9-4 OVER clip their last 13 games when installed as the favorite.
3-unit play:
Louisville -6.5
Michigan State was more than lucky to get by Kansas on Friday, as it is not likely they will go on another 12-2 run to close the game today and win outright.
The Spartans have too many scoring droughts during the course of the 40 minutes
4-unit play:
UNC TAR HEELS -7
North Carolina is simply playing now on another level. The pieces of the puzzle have fallen into place, and not even the great Blake Griffin and his double-doubles are going to save the Sooners from exiting in this round, and it won't even be close.
North Carolina can turn it on at will as evidenced by the 17-2 run they put on LSU to run away in that game, and the 12-0 run they put on Gonzaga on Friday to run away in that contest.
1* $50
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