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NFL - Sunday 11/2/03
Let me continue to beat my head against the wall on Sunday's with these plays.....
5 STAR: New York Jets (+2.5) OVER NEW YORK GIANTS
The Jets are coming off of a tough loss to the Eagles last week, while the Giants stunned the Vikings in Minnesota sending them to their first defeat of the season. The Giants have not been consistent all season long and will most likely play a bad game here after the big win on the road last week. The Jets have been improving every week and Chad Pennington should play better this week now that he has that one game under his belt. The Jets are 9-1 against the spread at home after playing back to back home games and they are 6-0 against the spread in November games over the last 3 seasons. The Jets get the win here!
3 STAR: ATLANTA (+4.5) OVER Philadelphia
There have been some major shakeups by the Falcons during the bye week. They have bench their entire starting secondary in hopes of improving their pass defense and Kurt Kitner will once again get the start at quarterback for the Falcons. The Eagles are 4-3 but they have been out gained in total yardage in four straight games and were lucky to slide by the Giants and Jets the last two weeks. I do not trust the Eagles laying points on the road, even against a team as bad as the Falcons. Philadelphia is only 2-8 against the spread versus terrible teams that are being outscored by 10 or more points per game on the season since 1992 and favorites after two or more consecutive wins that a have a winning percentage between 51% to 60% and are playing a losing team are only 35-69 since 1983. Also home underdogs after five or more consecutive losses that have a winning percentage of 25% or less on the season are 42-19 against the spread over the last 10 seasons. Take the dirty birds here!
3 STAR: SAN FRANCISCO (+3) OVER St. Louis
San Francisco had a tough loss last week and has since cut their kicker who cost them last weeks win at Arizona, while the Rams were impressive in a win last week at Pittsburgh, but I like the Niners in this one. St. Louis is only 2-11 against the spread after an upset win as a road underdog since 1992 and only 2-8 against the spread as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992. The 49ers gave away the win against the Rams earlier in the season at St. Louis, and they are 5-1 against the spread in home games revenging an extremely close loss against an opponent by 3 points or less since 1992. I'll take the points here and look for the Niners to win this one straight up!
2 STAR: DETROIT (+2.5) OVER Oakland
I can't lay points on the road with a team that has not covered the spread since the game before the Super Bowl last season. Just because they are playing a team with a worse record than their own is meaning less. The Raiders are only 5-14 against the spread when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse since 1992. The veterns on this team know that they are not going anywhere this season and losing Rich Gannon will only make things worse. Detroit is the young hungry team here, and I think they get the win against the old, slow Raiders who have already given up on this season. Take the points!
2 STAR: ARIZONA (+3) OVER Cincinnati
The Bengals are much improved this season, but I am not sure that they are ready to be a road favorite against anyone. The Cardinals are not very good, but they usually put up a good fight when they are at home. The Bengals are only 8-19 as a road favorite after playing a home game, 13-23 against the spread on the road after a straight up win and 0-10 straight up on the road after back to back wins. Also, road favorites after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread are only 15-34 against the spread over the last 10 seasons. Take the points here!
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 4-5 (-7.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 12-14-1 (-10.2 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 6-10-1 (-9.9 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 1-2 (-1.3 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 22-32-2 (-28.9 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $2890.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
5 STAR: New York Jets (+2.5) OVER NEW YORK GIANTS
The Jets are coming off of a tough loss to the Eagles last week, while the Giants stunned the Vikings in Minnesota sending them to their first defeat of the season. The Giants have not been consistent all season long and will most likely play a bad game here after the big win on the road last week. The Jets have been improving every week and Chad Pennington should play better this week now that he has that one game under his belt. The Jets are 9-1 against the spread at home after playing back to back home games and they are 6-0 against the spread in November games over the last 3 seasons. The Jets get the win here!
3 STAR: ATLANTA (+4.5) OVER Philadelphia
There have been some major shakeups by the Falcons during the bye week. They have bench their entire starting secondary in hopes of improving their pass defense and Kurt Kitner will once again get the start at quarterback for the Falcons. The Eagles are 4-3 but they have been out gained in total yardage in four straight games and were lucky to slide by the Giants and Jets the last two weeks. I do not trust the Eagles laying points on the road, even against a team as bad as the Falcons. Philadelphia is only 2-8 against the spread versus terrible teams that are being outscored by 10 or more points per game on the season since 1992 and favorites after two or more consecutive wins that a have a winning percentage between 51% to 60% and are playing a losing team are only 35-69 since 1983. Also home underdogs after five or more consecutive losses that have a winning percentage of 25% or less on the season are 42-19 against the spread over the last 10 seasons. Take the dirty birds here!
3 STAR: SAN FRANCISCO (+3) OVER St. Louis
San Francisco had a tough loss last week and has since cut their kicker who cost them last weeks win at Arizona, while the Rams were impressive in a win last week at Pittsburgh, but I like the Niners in this one. St. Louis is only 2-11 against the spread after an upset win as a road underdog since 1992 and only 2-8 against the spread as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992. The 49ers gave away the win against the Rams earlier in the season at St. Louis, and they are 5-1 against the spread in home games revenging an extremely close loss against an opponent by 3 points or less since 1992. I'll take the points here and look for the Niners to win this one straight up!
2 STAR: DETROIT (+2.5) OVER Oakland
I can't lay points on the road with a team that has not covered the spread since the game before the Super Bowl last season. Just because they are playing a team with a worse record than their own is meaning less. The Raiders are only 5-14 against the spread when playing against a terrible team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse since 1992. The veterns on this team know that they are not going anywhere this season and losing Rich Gannon will only make things worse. Detroit is the young hungry team here, and I think they get the win against the old, slow Raiders who have already given up on this season. Take the points!
2 STAR: ARIZONA (+3) OVER Cincinnati
The Bengals are much improved this season, but I am not sure that they are ready to be a road favorite against anyone. The Cardinals are not very good, but they usually put up a good fight when they are at home. The Bengals are only 8-19 as a road favorite after playing a home game, 13-23 against the spread on the road after a straight up win and 0-10 straight up on the road after back to back wins. Also, road favorites after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread are only 15-34 against the spread over the last 10 seasons. Take the points here!
2003 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 4-5 (-7.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 12-14-1 (-10.2 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 6-10-1 (-9.9 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 1-2 (-1.3 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 22-32-2 (-28.9 UNITS)
A $100 player would be down $2890.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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