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Sportsbooks aren’t vulnerable in many ways, but one way bettors can take the books to the cleaners is with the underdog moneyline parlay. On a day like last Saturday, when undefeated teams like Virginia Tech, NC State and Notre Dame all go down, this is one place where a bettor, with a limited investment, can really hammer the bookmaker. In general, I am not an advocate of parlays, especially longshot parlays. But as we enter the final month of the college football season, we are going to see big favorites crack under the pressure with BCS bids on the line – it happens every single year with predictable regularity.
A three team parley on the moneyline on Pitt at +375, Georgia Tech at +325 and BC at +300 (all lines available at the Stardust as of midweek) would have paid $7975 for a $100 investment. I’m sorry, but I really don’t think that bet is an 80:1 longshot. Throw in a false favorite or two (betting against Western Michigan, Memphis, Texas A+M or Central Florida), and the payouts get even more ridiculous. Adding two of those bets turns that 80:1 into a payout of 450:1 or higher. Obviously, these moneyline parlays aren’t going to hit every week. But with a mix and match philosophy, playing five or six games in different combinations, even a $20 bettor can make a profit for the season with a single score. Hit two for the season, and you’ll be sitting pretty. Think about what the standard bowl season is like – underdogs winning straight up all over the place, especially in the early games. The sportsbooks don’t offer bettors many chances to hit big scores, but this is a way to take a shot at some real money with a limited investment, as long as you don’t blow half your bankroll taking a shot at the big money.
The same moneyline parlay philosophy is good for the NFL. This past Sunday, in the NFL, underdogs ruled the day again, cashing in 10 out of 13 games. The Patriots, Bengals, Titans, Jets, 49ers and Redskins all won straight up as dogs, and that is no exception to the rule – there are plenty of weekends in the NFL each year where five or six underdogs of a FG or more will win straight up. Moneyline NFL parlays don’t generally pay as much as those in college do, because pointspreads in professional football tend to be shorter than those in college, but they hit with more frequency. With the Jets (+280), Niners (+130) and Titans (+160) in a moneyline parlay (again, all lines from the Dust, midweek), a $100 bet returned better than $2100. Just one more thing to consider, when looking at the big picture of how to battle the books. Much like a prizefighter, the smart bettor will hit them where they are most vulnerable.
Let’s move on to the Virgin Line Moves from the Stardust on Sunday night. Thanks for reading.
Ted
Whocovers.com
Big Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
W VIRGINIA -3 -3.5 Boston College
PITTSBURGH -18.5 -20 Temple
Ohio St -6.5 -7 PURDUE
INDIANA -1 -3 Michigan St
GEORGIA -14 -15 Mississippi
C Florida -17 -18 BUFFALO
Florida -20.5 -21.5 VANDERBILT
TCU -11 -13 Tulane
ARMY 22 21 AIR FORCE
NEW MEXICO -1.5 -2.5 San Diego St
UTAH -8.5 -9.5 Unlv
BOISE ST -26 -28 Rice
Michigan -4.5 -5.5 MINNESOTA
N TEXAS -12.5 -14 Idaho
Small (½ point) moves
Cincinnati 10 9.5 LOUISVILLE
PENN ST -13 -13.5 Virginia
SYRACUSE 14.5 14 Virginia Tech
Arkansas Pk -1 S CAROLINA
BYU -9.5 -10 Wyoming
Usc -14.5 -15 STANFORD
C Michigan 14.5 14 TOLEDO
AUBURN -36 -37 Louisiana-Monroe
The ‘opinion’ moves were: W Virginia, Pitt, Ohio St, Indiana, Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, TCU, New Mexico, Utah, BYU, Boise St, C Michigan, Michigan, Auburn and North Texas.
The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Cincinnati, Penn St, C Florida and Army.
There was no line posted offshore on Sunday night for the Virginia Tech – Syracuse game and the USC- Stanford game.
NFL Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
RAMS -5.5 -6.5 Chargers
BEARS 4 3.5 Patriots
Cardinals-Seahawks Total 39.5 37
RECAP of Last Week’s Moves (10-27)
Big Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
TCU -1.5 -2.5 Southern Miss W
Maryland -9 -10.5 N CAROLINA W
Auburn -1.5 -2.5 OLE MISS W
Alabama -21 -22 VANDERBILT W
W Michigan -3 -3.5 BALL ST L
Kentucky -3 -3.5 MISSISSIPPI ST W
OKLAHOMA ST 3.5 3 Texas A+M W
San Diego St 3.5 2.5 BYU L
S CAROLINA 2.5 1.5 Tennessee L
Syracuse 6.5 5.5 C FLORIDA W
Boise St -31 -32.5 UTEP W
HAWAII -23 -25 San Jose St L
ARKANSAS -20.5 -23 Troy St W (first bet was a winner)
N TEXAS -14.5 -15.5 Louisiana-Monroe W
NEW MEXICO ST -2.5 -3.5 Middle Tennessee W (first bet was a winner)
Small (½ point) moves
Colorado St 1.5 1 AIR FORCE
Florida St -10.5 -11 WAKE FOREST
E MICHIGAN 12.5 12 C Michigan
Houston 7.5 7 MEMPHIS
Missouri 11 10.5 IOWA ST
SMU 7.5 7 Nevada-Reno
OKLAHOMA -11 -11.5 Colorado
The ‘opinion’ moves were: TCU, Colorado St, Florida St, Auburn, Alabama, Eastern Michigan, Kentucky, Houston, Missouri, Oklahoma St, San Diego St, SMU, S Carolina, Syracuse, Hawaii and Arkansas. (11-5 last week, 61 – 60 – 3 YTD)
The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Maryland, Western Michigan, Oklahoma, Boise St and North Texas.
There was no offshore line posted on Sunday night for the New Mexico St – Middle Tennessee game.
NFL Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
Patriots 3 +3(Ev) BILLS W
Vikings 7.5 7 BUCS L
LIONS -1.5 -3(Ev) Cowboys W (first bet was a winner)
Bengals 3 +3(Ev) TEXANS W
CARDINALS 4 3.5 Rams L
Dolphins 6 5.5 PACKERS ??
Bengals – Texans Total 36.5 37.5 W
Dolphins – Packers Total 43.5 43 ??
NFL moves are now 38-28-1 YTD, pending the outcome of Monday Night football.
A three team parley on the moneyline on Pitt at +375, Georgia Tech at +325 and BC at +300 (all lines available at the Stardust as of midweek) would have paid $7975 for a $100 investment. I’m sorry, but I really don’t think that bet is an 80:1 longshot. Throw in a false favorite or two (betting against Western Michigan, Memphis, Texas A+M or Central Florida), and the payouts get even more ridiculous. Adding two of those bets turns that 80:1 into a payout of 450:1 or higher. Obviously, these moneyline parlays aren’t going to hit every week. But with a mix and match philosophy, playing five or six games in different combinations, even a $20 bettor can make a profit for the season with a single score. Hit two for the season, and you’ll be sitting pretty. Think about what the standard bowl season is like – underdogs winning straight up all over the place, especially in the early games. The sportsbooks don’t offer bettors many chances to hit big scores, but this is a way to take a shot at some real money with a limited investment, as long as you don’t blow half your bankroll taking a shot at the big money.
The same moneyline parlay philosophy is good for the NFL. This past Sunday, in the NFL, underdogs ruled the day again, cashing in 10 out of 13 games. The Patriots, Bengals, Titans, Jets, 49ers and Redskins all won straight up as dogs, and that is no exception to the rule – there are plenty of weekends in the NFL each year where five or six underdogs of a FG or more will win straight up. Moneyline NFL parlays don’t generally pay as much as those in college do, because pointspreads in professional football tend to be shorter than those in college, but they hit with more frequency. With the Jets (+280), Niners (+130) and Titans (+160) in a moneyline parlay (again, all lines from the Dust, midweek), a $100 bet returned better than $2100. Just one more thing to consider, when looking at the big picture of how to battle the books. Much like a prizefighter, the smart bettor will hit them where they are most vulnerable.
Let’s move on to the Virgin Line Moves from the Stardust on Sunday night. Thanks for reading.
Ted
Whocovers.com
Big Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
W VIRGINIA -3 -3.5 Boston College
PITTSBURGH -18.5 -20 Temple
Ohio St -6.5 -7 PURDUE
INDIANA -1 -3 Michigan St
GEORGIA -14 -15 Mississippi
C Florida -17 -18 BUFFALO
Florida -20.5 -21.5 VANDERBILT
TCU -11 -13 Tulane
ARMY 22 21 AIR FORCE
NEW MEXICO -1.5 -2.5 San Diego St
UTAH -8.5 -9.5 Unlv
BOISE ST -26 -28 Rice
Michigan -4.5 -5.5 MINNESOTA
N TEXAS -12.5 -14 Idaho
Small (½ point) moves
Cincinnati 10 9.5 LOUISVILLE
PENN ST -13 -13.5 Virginia
SYRACUSE 14.5 14 Virginia Tech
Arkansas Pk -1 S CAROLINA
BYU -9.5 -10 Wyoming
Usc -14.5 -15 STANFORD
C Michigan 14.5 14 TOLEDO
AUBURN -36 -37 Louisiana-Monroe
The ‘opinion’ moves were: W Virginia, Pitt, Ohio St, Indiana, Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, TCU, New Mexico, Utah, BYU, Boise St, C Michigan, Michigan, Auburn and North Texas.
The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Cincinnati, Penn St, C Florida and Army.
There was no line posted offshore on Sunday night for the Virginia Tech – Syracuse game and the USC- Stanford game.
NFL Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
RAMS -5.5 -6.5 Chargers
BEARS 4 3.5 Patriots
Cardinals-Seahawks Total 39.5 37
RECAP of Last Week’s Moves (10-27)
Big Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
TCU -1.5 -2.5 Southern Miss W
Maryland -9 -10.5 N CAROLINA W
Auburn -1.5 -2.5 OLE MISS W
Alabama -21 -22 VANDERBILT W
W Michigan -3 -3.5 BALL ST L
Kentucky -3 -3.5 MISSISSIPPI ST W
OKLAHOMA ST 3.5 3 Texas A+M W
San Diego St 3.5 2.5 BYU L
S CAROLINA 2.5 1.5 Tennessee L
Syracuse 6.5 5.5 C FLORIDA W
Boise St -31 -32.5 UTEP W
HAWAII -23 -25 San Jose St L
ARKANSAS -20.5 -23 Troy St W (first bet was a winner)
N TEXAS -14.5 -15.5 Louisiana-Monroe W
NEW MEXICO ST -2.5 -3.5 Middle Tennessee W (first bet was a winner)
Small (½ point) moves
Colorado St 1.5 1 AIR FORCE
Florida St -10.5 -11 WAKE FOREST
E MICHIGAN 12.5 12 C Michigan
Houston 7.5 7 MEMPHIS
Missouri 11 10.5 IOWA ST
SMU 7.5 7 Nevada-Reno
OKLAHOMA -11 -11.5 Colorado
The ‘opinion’ moves were: TCU, Colorado St, Florida St, Auburn, Alabama, Eastern Michigan, Kentucky, Houston, Missouri, Oklahoma St, San Diego St, SMU, S Carolina, Syracuse, Hawaii and Arkansas. (11-5 last week, 61 – 60 – 3 YTD)
The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Maryland, Western Michigan, Oklahoma, Boise St and North Texas.
There was no offshore line posted on Sunday night for the New Mexico St – Middle Tennessee game.
NFL Moves
Move Towards Virgin # Move Opponent
Patriots 3 +3(Ev) BILLS W
Vikings 7.5 7 BUCS L
LIONS -1.5 -3(Ev) Cowboys W (first bet was a winner)
Bengals 3 +3(Ev) TEXANS W
CARDINALS 4 3.5 Rams L
Dolphins 6 5.5 PACKERS ??
Bengals – Texans Total 36.5 37.5 W
Dolphins – Packers Total 43.5 43 ??
NFL moves are now 38-28-1 YTD, pending the outcome of Monday Night football.
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