Weazels March Madness

[weazel079]

My favorite sporting event besides the MLB playoffs since I'm a huge baseball fan. So much excitement packed into a short amount of time. Here are my criteria into breaking down march madness winners.

1) Winning Scoring Margin
2) Defensive FG %
3) Rebounding Margin
4) Solid guard play (A/T ratio)
5) Class of key players
6) Free throw %. Matters in tight games.

So far I have analyzed the West portion of the bracket and have one play. Will look at the Midwest portion tonight.

vs.
Prediction: Utah St 79, Marquette 74
Play: Utah St +4.5 -110

Winning Scoring Margin
Utah St +10.5
Marquette +9.4
Advantage: none

Defensive FG %
Utah St 42%
Marquette 45%
Advantage: Utah St

Rebound Margin
Utah St +4
Marquette +2.7
Advantage: slight edge Utah St

Guards A/T ratio
Utah St 2.1:1
Marquette 1.3:1
Advantage: Big advantage Utah St - The loss of James is going to kill Marquette. He was their leader and ran the offense. Anything above 2:1 is very good. Utah St takes care of the basketball.

Class of Key Players
Utah St Wilkinsson(SR) Quayle (JR) Wesley (SO)
Marquette Mcneal(SR) Matthews(SR) Hayward (JR)
Advantage: slight edge Marquette but no by much. Both teams key players are upperclassmen except for Wesley on Utah.

Free Throw Percentage
Utah St 74%
Marquette 72%
Advantage: very slight Utah

[mavskidd02]

good luck Weazel!

[Tnbreakers]

Gl!

[Kaptain]

totaly love the Utah St play.....get er in for us

[weazel079]

Handicapped the west region. Have a lot on my plate tomorrow to cap the east and south regions.

vs
Prediction: Utah 66, Arizona 60
Pick: Utah pk -110

Winning Scoring Margin
Utah +7.5
Zona +3.8
Advantage: Utah

Defensive FG %
Utah 40.1%
Zona 43.6%
Advantage: Utah

Rebound Margin
Utah St +4.9
Zona +2.5
Advantage: Utah

Guards A/T ratio
Utah 1.4:1
Zona 1.6:1
Advantage: very slight edge to Zona

Class of Key Players
Utah Nevil (Sr) Borha (SR) Green (SR) Kepkay (SR)
Zona Buddinger (JR) Hill (JR) Wise (JR)
Advantage: Utah, love the fact that all of the Utes best players are seniors.

Free Throw Percentage
Utah 78.2%
Zona 73.4%
Advantage: Utah


vs
Prediction: USC 72, Boston College 64
Pick: USC -2.5 -110

[zeib10]

Thanks for the insight. Good luck and enjoy the tourney!

[orientalhawn]

good luck!!

[weazel079]

Here's the rest of them. Good luck tomorrow guys. Going to be fun.

vs
Prediction: LSU 66, Butler 58
Pick: LSU -2 -110

vs
Prediction: Gonzaga 75, Akron 56
Pick: Gonzaga -12.5 -110

[BillMill71]

Good Luck Weaz

[UfGators]

Nice job so far! Looking forward to the rest of your picks

[weazel079]

LSU Winner
Gonzaga Winner by the hook
(2-0) +2 units

Also I screwed up on the rebounding margin on the Utah St game. For some reason when I was analyzing the rebounding margin for that game I clicked on last years statistics. It should be Utah St +7.2, Marquette +2.4 which makes me feel stronger about this play.

[kbsooner21]

Nice job buddy! Good luck tomorrow!

[weazel079]

vs
Prediction: Syracuse 65, Stephen Austin 60
Pick: Stephen Austin +11.5 -110

Winning Scoring Margin
Cuse +8.1
S. Austin +6.3
Advantage: slight Syracuse

Defensive FG %
Cuse 41.3%
S. Austin 37.4%
Advantage: Austin. Love dogs in the tournament that play great defense.

Rebound Margin
Cuse +2
S. Austin +1.4
Advantage: none

Guards A/T ratio
Syracuse: 2:1
Austin: 2.1:1
Advantage: advantage none

Class of Key Players
Syracuse: Flynn (SO) Devendorf (JR) Harris (JR)
Austin: Kingsley (SR) Alexander (SR)
Advantage: Austin. Cuse hasn't been to the dance in 3 years and no one in their starting lineup has tourney experience yet they are laying double digits. Austin held Texas A&M, Arkansas and Texas Tech to 63.6 ppg this season. They finished the year holding opponent to a very low 26.7% from three-point range and held ten foes under 50 points. To no surprise, the Lumberjacks like to play at an extremely slow pace. Last year Stephen F. Austin beat Oklahoma, 66-62, in Norman with pretty much the same roster. They have solid guard play and their main point contribution comes from the big boys inside. Syracuse is getting too much respect here by making a big run in the Big East tourney but came up short. A lot of times teams who make big runs in their conference tourney that aren't expected come up short in the dance. See Miss St today and watch for Ohio St to possibly lose SU tomorrow. I see Austin hanging around all game long.

Free Throw Percentage
Austin 67.3%
Cuse 66.8%
Advantage: None

[BillMill71]

Good Luck Weazel

[Spark]

Good Luck W