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**raptors** · 10-29-2003, 03:56 PM

PS

Could you give me the scores of the Pro games ??Thanks

**wayne1218** · 10-29-2003, 04:01 PM

I stuck it for you cashman.

**casheasy** · 10-29-2003, 05:25 PM

Thanks Wayne. Scores are up, raptors.

**BIGE** · 10-30-2003, 12:05 AM

THIS Week Newsletters

Anyone that have: CKO- PLAYBOOK-power play post it please !!!
THE RED SHEET
RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

TOLEDO 63 - Buffalo 13 - (7:00 EST) -- Line opened at Toledo minus 27½, and is now minus 26. The Rockets let us down big time a week ago, in their flat showing at Ball St. Despite that shocker, Toledo is still in the thick of the MAC West race, with important showdowns againstNorthern Illinois, Western Michigan, & Bowling Green on the horizon. And with next week's bye, a look ahead to November 8 is moot. Toledo has averaged 44 ppg in its last 5 home games, & that includes that upset of Pittsburgh. Buffalo presents the perfect foe for a quick return to respectability, as the Bulls are in off snapping their 18-game SU slide. But despite their upset of Ohio, they still rank as the 2nd worst offensive team in the nation, as well as the 112th defensive squad. The Rockets take out their frustrations.
RATING: TOLEDO 89

MINNESOTA 58 - Indiana 10 - (2:05) -- Line opened at Minnesota minus 28, and is still minus 28. As you can see, this week's Superior Plays are laying plenty of wood, but as anyone who is even a casual student of the line knows, there is no simple rule for winning & losing, as minuscule dogs or chalks own no advantage over huge favs or pups. The Gophers were among the elites, before collapsing in the final quarter in their eventual loss to Michigan, & followed that one up with a home loss to smoking Michigan St, despite a 525-413 yd edge (3-0 TO deficit). Thus last week's rout of Illini was of utmost importance, as it stopped the bleeding, & revived hopes of a decent post-season reward. Hoosies playing out the string, and their 97th ranked defense won't contain Gophers' 4th ranked offense.
RATING: MINNESOTA 89

TEXAS TECH 68 - Colorado 31 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Texas Tech minus 15, and is still minus 15. As everyone knows, the Raiders are an awesome offensive machine, with an Achilles Heel known as defense. That statement is graphically displayed with this week's statistical printout,which shows Texas Tech possessing the nation's #1 offense (615 ypg, which is a full 86 ypg over 2nd place Bowling Green). But with their 597 yd defensive showing at Missouri, the Raiders have now edged Central Michigan as the most porous stop unit in the land. However, the Buffs are right there with them (#111 in total "D" & 116 in scoring "D"). TT has covered 3 of its 4 HGs by 24½, 25½, & 14½ pts. The flood gates are open.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 88

MISSISSIPPI 34 - South Carolina 14 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Mississippi minus 8, and is now minus 7½. The Rebels are one of the more pleasant surprises this season. Behind the leadership of QB Manning, they've won their first 4 SEC contests for the first time since 1970, when Eli's father Archie, was under center. As a matter of fact, they are the only perfect squad in SEC play. They've been a steady force, & in possession of a balanced attack, averaging 171 RYs, as well as 299 PYs. Defensively, they rank 13th vs the run, holding Arkansas to 82 RYs, along with only 7 pts, 13 FDs, & 237 TYs. The Gamecocks haven't covered since their overtime loss to Tennessee, & their defense has been slipping of late.
RATING: MISSISSIPPI 88

NEW MEXICO 34 - Nevada-Las Vegas 17 - (8:00) -- Line opened at New Mexico minus 8, and is now minus 8½. As we have written on Pointwise the past couple of weeks, the red hot Lobos are only 15 pts from an amazing 15-0 spread run. Thus, they are a study in competitiveness. A week ago, they reached the heights with their 47-35 win over previously ATS unbeaten Utah, a 20-pt cover. In that one, they posted an amazing 407-80 RY edge, & that over a Ute squad which entered with a 174-105 RYpg advantage. New Mexico has Colorado St & Air Force up next, but those won't mean a thing, if this one gets away. The Rebs are averaging only 13 ppg in their last 4 outings, & are in off home OT loss to BYU.
RATING: NEW MEXICO 88

DALLAS 31 - Washington 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Dallas minus 3½, and is now minus 4. As we figured, smoking Cowboys couldn't get over the Tampa hump a week ago. Running into the Bucs off a loss is a proven road to disaster, which Dallas' zero pts, 9 FDs, & 178 yds attest.But Parcells has brought this squad too far, for any mid-season collapse. He is a motivator & tactician without peer. Entering the Buc game, Dallas ranked 4th, 8th, & 10th in total, rushing, & passing "O", as well as 1st, 2nd, & 5th in total, rushing, & passing "D". We know that the Redskins had last week off, but whereas Washington had impressive stats in the early going, it has slipped noticeably of late, with Spurrier talking about going back to his college-style passing "O". Won't work this quickly, & not against this defense.
RATING: DALLAS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Texas, Duke, SoCalifornia, OklahomaSt -- NFL: SanFran, Cincinnati, Denver

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

MINNESOTA
Since the middle of last season, there hasn’t been a worse pointspread performer in the nation than Indiana. The Hoosiers are a wretched 1-11-1 vs. the number their last 13 games on the board, which hardly bodes well for their chances Saturday afternoon at the Metrodome against dangerous Minnesota. Going back a bit further, IU stands a poor 9-21-1 vs. the line since 2000 as an underdog. As for the potent Golden Gophers, note their 4-1 spread mark laying double digits in 2003, as well as a noteworthy 6-2 spread mark when favored this season.

IOWA
Until further notice, we’re going to keep looking against troubled Illinois. The Fighting Illini have fallen into a pointspread abyss, failing to cover their last six games in ’03, most by hefty margins, and prospects for a recovery Saturday afternoon against rugged Iowa at Iowa City do not look promising. That’s also because the Hawkeyes have performed so well lately under HC Kirk Ferentz. Note that Iowa is a spotless 9-0 vs. the line laying double digits since 2001 (7- 0 in that role at Nile Kinnick Stadium), and has covered all four outings at home this season (now 16-3 last 19 as host!). And, since 2000, the Hawkeyes are a splendid 31-14 overall vs. the number.

COLORADO STATE
It’s Sonny Lubick’s time of year! The veteran Colorado State mentor haslong been known for having his teams improve as each campaign progresses, evidenced by a shining 31-10 spread mark the Rams’ last five games of the regular season since 1995. And Lubick is at it again in 2003, as CSU is on a 3- game win and cover streak, with an impressive +25.25 AFS (Away From Spread) number the past two weeks, as it makes the short trip to Laramie for a battle vs. border rival Wyoming Saturday afternoon. Note that home-field edge has meant little when these teams meet in recent seasons, the visitor covering 9 of the past 10 meetings, and the Rams covering their last 5 at Laramie.

HAWAII
The go-against theme continues this week, and troubled San Jose Stateis a definite target. The beleaguered Spartans have covered just one of their six chances against the number in 2003 and have taken some vicious beatings along the way, such as last week’s wipeout loss at Boise State. Don’t expect a much better result when dangerous Hawaii visits Spartan Stadium Saturday afternoon. Note that San Jose has failed to cover all four of its chances as an underdog in 2003, and has posted a poor -13.75 AFS (Away From Spread) number its last two games. And the Warriors, thanks to HC June Jones, are always a recommendation in the Coach and Pointspread system this season.

CINCINNATI (NFL)
One of the hottest NFL teams is Cincinnati, and the surging Bengals lookto continue their fine recent play when visiting Tempe for a battle against Arizona Sunday afternoon. Under first-year HC Marvin Lewis, Cincy enters the contest having covered 4 straight games, as well as covering all three tries as a visitor this season. As for the Cards, they’ve been underachieving against the line this season (2-5 vs. number), which is nothing new for them, especially at Sun Devil Stadium, where they’ve dropped 33 of their last 52 spread decisions.

THE GOLD SHEET

The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!!Technical Play of the Week IOWA over Illinois...Iowa has been quite reliable laying big points lately, standing a spotless 9-0 vs. the number as a double-digit favorite since 2001. The Hawkeyes are also 16-3 vs. the line their last 19 at Iowa City. Meanwhile, the Illini have dropped six in a row straight-up and against the line.

SUMMARY OF NFL KEY RELEASES
DALLAS by 14 over Washington
SAN FRANCISCO by 7 over St. Louis
UNDER 36 total points in the New England-Denver game

SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY RELEASES
MICHIGAN STATE by 6 over Michigan
TOLEDO by 38 over Buffalo
OREGON by 8 over Washington

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF KEY RELEASES

DALLAS 27 - Washington 13 —Steve Spurrier’s clever quips not ringing so funny these days in D.C., as his Redskins have been getting outplayed in the “pits,” have collected only 10 sacks, given up 25, and the “Jet-Skin” trio of WR Coles, RB Canidate & KR/RB Chad Morton have a combined total of only one TD! Spurrier & others (LB Arrington) have criticized the players’ effort, and owner Dan Snyder is steamed. But bringing in Joe Bugel to help the offense is not the answer. You know how we feel about Bill Parcells and his insistent attention to detail; he gets the ‘Boys’ full attention after shutout at T.B.

SAN FRANCISCO 23 - St. Louis 16 —S.F. has struggled as a favorite, but 49ers are 2-1-1 as a dog TY, while former arch-rival Rams only 3-10 vs. spread last 13 away. Niners are healthier & more aggressive on defense TY, racking up 20 sacks. And they know they could have won first meeting TY if only WR Cedric Wilson had remembered to fall down in FG range rather than burn the clock at the end of regulation. St. Louis hoping for return of Marshall Faulk. But same effort that beat T.B. two weeks ago on this field should earn S.F. a victory.

UNDER THE TOTAL *New England 14-DENVER 12—enver “scuffling” at QB, so maybe Tom Brady can help N.E. fight through pointspread domination of series by Broncos (have covered 16 of last 21 meetings). Pats certainly have the coaching, as Bill Belichick has helped them overcome injuries to key players and post 6-0-1 spread record after seasonopening rout at Buffalo! N.E.’s young players such as CB Samuel, S E. Wilson, DE Warren, LB Chatham & DE/DT/NT/blocking FB D. Klesko ( Wow, three slashes!) continue to make surprising contributions. Banged-up Broncs (0-2 last two as home favorite; “under” all 3 home TY) now might be without speedy LB Mobley (check status).

MICHIGAN STATE 26 - Michigan 20 —In crucial match in Big Ten race, look to resurgent Michigan St. to exact revenge for last season’s humiliation at hands of rival Wolverines. Spartan QB Smoker (66%, 12 TD passes), RB Hayes (4.7 ypc, 8 TDs) and WRs Shabaj (39 recs.) & Trannon (22) give HC John L. Smith enough weapons to pierce tough Michigan front seven. MSU “D” yielding just 2.5 ypc and has week off to prepare for Wolverine RB Perry.

Oregon 31 - WASHINGTON 23 —With UW not offering much value inSeattle (3-8-1 vs. line last 12 as host), down another key playmaker (homerun WR/KR Frederick the latest), and unlikely to rally for HC Gilbertson, Oregon looks like the solid choice. Duck QBs Clemens & Fife operating a much more balanced offense with RB Whitehead (172 YR vs. Stanford) contributing. Husky QB Picket, just 50% with 5 ints. last 3 games.

TOLEDO 44 - Buffalo 6 —Toledo’s loss and Buffalo’s win figure to give Rockets total concentration in this game. Before upsetting one-dimensional Ohio U., Buffalo had dropped 18 in a row SU, covering just 4 of last 14 of those losses. Talented Toledo offense has tallied 44 ppg last 5 home games and covered last 4 laying double digits at the Glass Bowl. Visits to Miami-O, Marshall & Ball State last 1+ indicate Bulls not “road warriors.” [/color]

WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS

BEST BETS
**** Oakland over *Detroit by 18
*** San Francisco over St. Louis by 13

RECOMMENDED PLAYS
*Houston over Carolina by 4
New York Giants over *New York Jets by 11

SUMMARY OF NFL TOTALS:

**OVER: Cincinnati at Arizona – Jon Kitna is on a rare hot streak and the Cardinals have allowed at least 30 points in nine of their last 17 games.

UNDER: New Orleans at Tampa Bay – The Bucs are coming off a shutout of a hot Dallas offense, while an improving Saints defense has given up an average of 18 points the last four games.

OVER: Green Bay at Minnesota – The Packers have gone above the total their last 10 games on carpet, and they’ve been unable to ever stop Randy Moss.

SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS

BEST BETS
**** CONNECTICUT* over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 28
*** TEXAS TECH* over COLORADO by 30

RECOMMENDED PLAYS
Maryland* over North Carolina by 31
Michigan over Michigan St.* by 15
Tennessee* over Duke by 14
Oregon State* over Arizona by 10

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BETS

****BEST BET
Oakland over *Detroit by 18

Mercifully the Raiders finally had a bye. The bye won. Just joking because this is a game the Raiders can easily win, just as they’ve done the past six years following their bye week. Since defeating the Cardinals opening week, the Lions have been absolutely terrible. QB Joey Harrington has thrown four touchdowns and 11 interceptions in the last six games. Without star rookie Charles Rogers, who remains sidelined, the Lions lack a quality wideout. Their running backs, Olandis Gary and Shawn Bryson, are nothing better than career backups asked to carry the load because of a season-ending injury to starting tailback James Stewart. Simply put, the Lions lack the personnel to execute Steve Mariucci’s offense. The Lions are actually older than the Raiders, with 17 players above 30. Injuries and bad management have done in the Lions. Harrington has lost his confidence, and Mariucci may have lost the team. At this stage he hasn’t done any better than his predecessor, Marty Mornhinweg. We like the Raiders in this spot even if Rich Gannon can’t go because of a shoulder injury sustained against the Chiefs. Backup QB Marques Tuiasosopo has had three years running Oakland’s offense in practice and will be well prepared if need be having had two weeks to get ready. With no preparation time, Tuiasosopo rallied the Raiders to within one yard of tying the AFC’s best team. Former Raiders coach Jon Gruden always was extremely high on Tuiasosopo. This would be a nice audition spot for Tuiasosopo, who is trying to prove himself to Bill Callahan. Tuiasosopo couldn’t ask for an easier secondary to throw against than the Lions’ injury-depleted unit. Getting deep threat Jerry Porter back is a key for the Raiders. Porter’s presence opens things up for graybeards Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. OAKLAND 31-13.

***BEST BET
*San Francisco over St. Louis by 13

It’s easy to pick on the 49ers for losing to the Cardinals last Sunday, which by the way should make them very mad for this matchup. The Rams, on the other hand, are sailing along with a four-game winning streak and may be getting Marshall Faulk back this week. Let’s not lose sight of several important factors, however. The Rams are a carpet team. They do not play well away from their Edward Jones Dome as evidenced by a 3-8 ATS mark their last 11 road contests. When the Rams defeated the Steelers this past Sunday in Pittsburgh, it marked just their second road victory in 11 tries. Recall, too, the first time these teams met this season back in Week 2. The Rams won in overtime, 27-24. But the 49ers probably would have won in regulation if wide receiver Cedric Wilson would have called a time-out as the final seconds of regulation ticked off. Wilson already had the 49ers in field goal range after catching a pass. Of course kicking field goals has become a wild adventure these days for San Francisco. They should take care of that problem this week after Owen Poachman missed two field goals against the Cardinals. Poachman had also missed three field goals the week before. The 49ers did, though, out- gain the Rams, 390-278. If they outplayed St. Louis that much on the road they should be at least equally impressive at home in a game they no longer can afford to lose. Go ahead point to the 49ers’ 3-5 mark if you will. Yes, it’s very disappointing. We’re not nominating Dennis Erickson for Coach of the Year. But do consider that four of the 49ers’ five losses have been by a total of eight points. Jeff Garcia is the most mobile quarterback the Rams have faced this season. He’ll cause them trouble. Those who enjoy looking at over/ unders may note four of the last five in this series have gone above the total. SAN FRANCISCO 30-17.

****BEST BET
CONNECTICUT* over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 28

As we enter the month of November physical and psychological factors can combined for some unique handicapping situations, and this game gives us one of our very favorites. We have a home team playing with a tremendous amount of enthusiasm, with the Huskies managing to overcome a poor effort to win at the gun vs. Akron last week, elevating them to 6-3 and giving them a genuine life in the bowl picture. And while that wins gives them a renewed vigor, they will be taking on a lifeless road opponent that just might want to get this one over with. The Broncos enter this one off of their “triangle” showdown against the conference elite, and having been whipped by a combined 58 points vs. Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Marshall they are not only physically worn down, but mentally they can no longer find a meaningful target for this season. We will actually get to lay a shorter price here because of the expected return of Western QB Chad Munson, but the bottom line is that the usual pride and joy of a Gary Darnell team, the defensive unit, has been the real culprit in this stretch. They allowed over 500 yards in each of those M.A.C. showdown games, allowing all three opponents to get a minimum of 224 yards both running and passing, and that can only spell blowout here vs. Dan Orlovsky (58% completions and 22 TD passes), Chris Bellamy (6.0 per carry since replacing the injured Terry Caulley), and that balanced Huskie attack. CONNECTICUT 45-17.

***BEST BET
TEXAS TECH* over COLORADO by 30

A combination of the flawless performances by Jason White, and the three interceptions that B. J. Symons threw in that loss at Missouri on Saturday has made the Red Raider QB the underdog for the Heisman Trophy at this juncture. But if anything that could create the impetus to take some brilliant numbers to a higher level, and with a pair of hapless defenses offering little challenge in the next two weeks (Baylor is on deck), get your calculators out. First note that Symons had anything but a “bad” game at Missouri, hitting 40- 62 for 408 yards and three TD’s, but it was the Tech defense that afforded him no assistance in terms of winning the game. Now they face a downtrodden Colorado squad that might have been able to give its all in taking Oklahoma to the limit last week, but may have little left in the tank here. The Buffalo D.L. is extremely short on bodies, which has made the pass rush a non-factor all season, and that has taken a toll on the secondary in a major way. This pass defense rates among the nation’s very worst, with an awful ratio of 22 TD passes vs. only two interceptions, and that is hardly the resume that you want to show for yourself when facing this passing attack. Especially with Lubbock being a special atmosphere in the only Raider home game in a six week stretch - Symons and his receivers have only had two home games since the month of August, Big 12 romps over Texas A&M and Iowa State by a combined 62 points. TEXAS TECH 57-27

POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY PLAYS
1* TEXAS over Nebraska
1* MINNESOTA over Indiana
2* SO CALIFORNIA over Washington St
3* BOISE STATE over Brigham Young
4* IOWA over Illinois
4* COLORADO STATE over Wyoming
5* NAVY over Tulane
5* TEXAS TECH over Colorado

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS
2* DALLAS over Washington
3* NEW ORLEANS over Tampa Bay
4* PITTSBURGH over Seattle
4* HOUSTON over Carolina
5* NEW YORK JETS over NY Giants

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF TOP RATED SELECTIONS

TEXAS 41 - Nebraska 17 - (3:30) -- Horns averaging 279 RYs vs Rice, Tulane, IowaSt, & Baylor, but just 122 vs decent defenses, and "Black Shirts" certainly quality as a decent "D". But Nebraska allowed 452 yds in its last RG,& needed 2 TDs off blocked punts for narrow cover vs fast-dying IowaSt. Lay the spot.

MINNESOTA (HC) 55 - Indiana 10 - (12:00) -- Can this be anything else? Minny came in as our top phone play LW, with 338 RY, 237 PY display vs Illinois, & should duplicate it with some to spare vs Indy "D", which has allowed >30 pts in all lined affairs to date. No way Hoosiers approach containment of this offense.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (HC) 44 - Washington State 17 - (7:00) -- Payback time for the Trojans, who are approaching LY's overwhelming unit. In their last 3 games, they've averaged 210 RYs & 327 PYs, with Leinhart in off 351 PY, 4 TD showing vs Washington. Sixth-rated Coogs have played Troy tight, & that includes LY's upset. But Kegel in off 5 INT showing, & still can't run the ball.

DALLAS 30 - Washington 13 - (1:00) -- Well, the 'Boys did as expected LW, in lopsided loss at Tampa. Check only 9 FDs, 178 yds, & a 68 RY deficit. We've been documenting the weekly RY edges of Dallas: 51, 54, 136, 65, & 51 in 5 of previous 6, before LW. We fully expect a return to that dominating form here, as the Skins have seen their earlier quality rushing game turn to ashes of late, topped by allowing 196 overland yds to a Buffalo squad which ranked dead last in overland production. Wash has been outscored 59-20 in its last 2 games, & is a horrid 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games with the 'Boys. You know that Parcells will have his squad ready for this important meeting.

TAMPA BAY 23 - New Orleans 17 - (1:00) -- The Bucs continue to be a fine play off a loss. Their shutout of Dallas' smoking offense was impressive, as they held the Cowboys to only 9 FDs, & 178 TYs. Dominated overland, with Pittman recording 113 RYs. But putting 2 wins together has thus far been an impossibility for Tampa. As a matter of fact the Bucs have lost outright after each win. Can the Saints take advantage? Well, a year ago, they won in OT on this field, & could certainly duplicate it. McAllister has topped 100 RYs the past 5 games, & only the TO prevented a current 3-game Saint run. New Orleans is 10-3 ATS on the Nov road off SU loss. We'll call the upset

**BIGE** · 10-31-2003, 01:26 AM

Newsletters

THE SPORTS REPORTER

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:

BEST BETS
*DALLAS over WASHINGTON by 17
CINCINNATI over *ARIZONA by 13

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*HOUSTON over CAROLINA by 3
PITTSBURGH over *SEATTLE by 5
*SAN FRANCISCO over ST. LOUIS by 7

SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:

SUPER BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 17

BEST BETS
*NORTHERN ILLINOIS over BALL STATE by 3
*TEXAS TECH over COLORADO by 27
*AIR FORCE over UTAH by 14

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*KANSAS STATE over BAYLOR by 47
VIRGINIA over *N.C. STATE by 9
*TEXAS over NEBRASKA by 7
*UAB over ARMY by 10
*WASHINGTON over OREGON by 1
MIAMI FLORIDA over *VIRGINIA TECH by 13

SUMMARY OF BEST BET SELECTIONS

BEST BET
*DALLAS over WASHINGTON by 17
Washington’s offense peaked early and has dropped off steadily to the point where the Spurrier system produced just 20 points combined against Tampa Bay and Buffalo, and an average of just 17 points in its last five games dating back to Week 3. The NFL per-game team scoring average for the entire season, as well as the last five weeks, is 21. Things might get worse before they get better for the Redskins this week with banged-up Trung Candidate (ankle) and Ladell Betts (forearm) hamperingthe running game and quarterback Patrick Ramsey (hand injury) curtailing the passing game. Ramsey has been under pressure all season long, and the Redskins will have spent some of their bye week adjusting a pass-protection scheme that worked for Florida Gators but ain’t gettin’ it done for Washington Redskins. Dallas’ defense has been stellar for the most part lately, with a touchdown or less allowed in recent games against the Jets, Cardinals, and Lions. Last week, 13 of the 16 points allowed to Tampa Bay were set up by interceptions or penalty. Parcells has learned a few things in this league over the years, and one of them is that you need to win your division games to be successful in the NFL. The Cowboys are already 2-0 SU and ATS in NFC East games, and you know they will be ready for this divisional opponent. Dallas has hurt opponents with their offensive speed, especially at receiver, and Washingtonwill be covering those wideouts without cornerback Fred Smoot, who remains out
with a chest injury. DALLAS, 30-13.

BEST BET
CINCINNATI over *ARIZONA by 13
Starvin’ Marvin, he’s our man, if he can’t do it, nobody can. Actually, winning outright in the desert isn’t that hard. Twelve of the last 20 Cardinals’ opponents have done it. But it’s easy to doubt the Bengals’ ability to get it done despite their 5-2 ATS record this season, because their uniforms are still identified with losing and they are just 5-22 SU on the road since the 2000 season. Yet all of that is yesterday’s news, stuff that the straight-up people of the world use as filler, and it plants unnecessary doubt. When you see that the wheel has been turned in the right direction, and that under Starvin’ Marvin, the Bengals areplaying +3.1 points better than the spread this season, an improvement of +9 vs. the number from last season, then you just go with the flow. Most of the improvement has been accomplished by reducing offensive and special teams mistakes, tailoring the defensive game plan to limit opponents’ offensive strengths, and turning QB John Kitna into an asset instead of a loaded gun pointed at the team’s head. Combine that with Arizona’s–7.6 vs. the spread this season. That rating is -3 points lower than their point-spread performance from a year ago, and there is no depth of talent to drastically improve upon that performance in the second half of the season despite last week’s upset OT win against San Francisco, an unfortunate occurrence for our community. Dave McGinness resorted tothe “don’t lose it” style of play against San Francisco last week, when Marcel Shipp ran 35 times for 165 yards against a small San Francisco defensive front. CINCINNATI, 23-10.

SUPER BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 17
Great handicapping setup here as the visiting Pittsburgh Panthers still have Top-10 type of talent and yet many so-called experts havedismissed this team as a national power following earlier-season losses against Toledo and Notre Dame. Pittsburgh’s got the best one-two combo punch around at the QB/WR receiver positions with QB Rod Rutherford ready/willing/able to inflict major damage to a soft BC defense. Count on a stat-sheet stuffing game from wide- out Larry Fitzgerald, who nabbed eight balls for 149 yards last Saturday in that 34-14 “message game” win against Syracuse. Keep in mind the Eagles tend to give lots of cushion to opposing wide receivers – they yielded way too much in the second half of last week’s 27-25 non-cover win against Notre Dame – and that isgoing to be hazardous to BC’s health here. Also, keep in mind the last time the Panthers played in Chestnut Hill, it was a 45-7 win for the home folks and even last year’s 19-16 overtime win didn’t sooth all the hurt from the Pittsburgh side. Pittsburgh’s defense held the ‘Cuse scoreless from the beginning of the second quarter on last weekend, andanother lock- down/shut-down effort is on the way here against a Boston College club that could be playing with a sub-par tailback Derrick Knight (ankle woes last week while rushing for only 43 yards on 23 carries). Pittsburgh, 38-21.

BEST BET
*TEXAS TECH over COLORADO by 27
Texas Tech coach Mike Leach was so upset after his team’s 62-31 loss to Missouri that he refused to let the media interview his players and said tersely, “We lost this game because I’m not a good enough coach to get our defensive players to believe in themselves.” This sort of tactic is not an uncommon one, and you can only pull it once in awhile, but Leach is an excellent offensive strategist so we’ll give him the benefit of thedoubt that he knows what he’s doing in terms of motivation. He couldn’t have picked a better opponent this week, except maybe Baylor, which actually beat Colorado this year. As we’ve told you in these pages, defense is usually just a rumor for the Buffaloes, although they did limit powerful Oklahoma to 27 points through the first 58 minutes last week. But that’s part of the problem for the Buffs here, because everyone will be tellingthem “good job” all this week for their close encounter with No. 1 Oklahoma. All that does is set them up for a rude awakening here against prolific QB B.J. Symons, who has much more offensive help than CU’s Joel Klatt. Texas Tech, 56-29.

BEST BET
*NORTHERN ILLINOIS over BALL STATE by 3
Maybe some of you will find this pick predictable, but there’s nothing boring about winning. True, we have gone against Northern Illinois each of the past four weeks, but we’re 3-1 ATS doing it. And many of the reasons we’ve been telling you about are again applicable here. If you watched the Huskies’ loss at Bowling Green, you saw that they don’thave an explosive offense. They rely on a power ground game keyed by RB Michael Turner and an opportunistic passing game and defense. That’s how they beat Ball State, 41-29 last season on the road in what was the MAC opener for the Cardinals. BSU QB Talmadge Hill threw four INTs and only two touchdowns, while NIU’s Josh Haldi passed for four TDs. But note that Turner’s 130 yards rushing in that game came on 34 carries,an average of under 4 yards a pop. And Hill is playing with more confidence right now, as evidenced by his 307 yards and three TDs in a convincing upset of Toledo last week. The Miami-Ohio team that drubbed Ball two weeks ago has a more quick-striking offense than Northern Illinois does, and you also must question the Huskies’ focus now that their BCS pipe dreams are gone. Take points with road dog. Northern Illinois, 23-20.

BEST BET
*AIR FORCE over UTAH by 14
A year ago, Air Force began the year with six straight wins and lost five of its next seven games. This year the Flyboys ripped off five consecutive wins to start the campaign only to lose two of its next three. Fisher DeBerry & Co. was off last week to plug the leaks in the dike, heal the psyche and get ready for the angry, triple-revenge minded Utes. Utah
lost for the first time in six games as New Mexico scored three less points (47) than Utah’s previous four opponents. The Lobos rushed for 407 yards and that has to have DeBerry and QB Chance Harridge licking their chops. Can Urban Meyer circle the wagons and bolster up a rush defense that is 57th in the nation allowing 142.8 YPG and stop the # 2 rushing team (294. 8 PPG) in college football? No way. His situation is eerily similar to what it was at Bowling Green last year, when his team began 8-0, but became worn down and lost two straight on the road after that. Utah was 6-1 prior to New Mexico, and the one loss was nearly a win. There is only so much juice in the lemon. A conference championship would be nice, but high-profile seeking Meyer might prefer totackle a Pac 10 team in a bowl instead of winning the Mountain West and automatically
earning the right to play some clown show from Conference USA. Air Force, 31-17.

NORTHCOASTS POWERPLAYS

SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:
4* MEMPHIS 33 E CAROLINA 12
4* PITTSBURGH 31 BOSTON COLLEGE 26
4* KANSAS ST 47 BAYLOR 2
4* MINNESOTA 45 INDIANA 14
4* IOWA 37 ILLINOIS 7
4* COLORADO ST 36 WYOMING 21
4* FLORIDA 19 GEORGIA 17
4* NEW MEXICO 31 UNLV 13
4* WASHINGTON 33 OREGON 25
4* UTEP (+) 24 TULSA 29
3* E MICHIGAN (+) 21 C MICHIGAN 27
3* OHIO ST 17 PENN ST 8
3* VIRGINIA TECH (+) 26 MIAMI, FL 27
3* UCLA 22 STANFORD 13
3* NEW MEXICO ST 33 ARKANSAS ST 14
3* USC 37 WASHINGTON ST 21
2* NORTHWESTERN (+) 13 PURDUE 29
2* HAWAII 43 SAN JOSE ST 29
2* S MISSISSIPPI 31 LOUISIANA-LFT 7
1* MICHIGAN 30 MICHIGAN ST 25
1* CLEMSON (+) 25 WAKE FOREST 24

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:
4* EAGLES 30 FALCONS 17
3* COWBOYS 23 REDSKINS 13
3* BENGALS 25 CARDINALS 16
2* RAMS 25 49ERS 20

PLAYBOOK BY MARC LAWRENCE

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
VIRGINIA TECH over Miami Fla by 1
Don’t tell West Virginia that these two were the second and third
ranked teams in the country. Both were manhandled by WVU’s
offensive line and neither could stop the Mountaineer running game. Virginia Tech, in particular, was powerless to get its defense off the field against the Hillbillies. But Tech will be at an emotional peak here and the Hokies are 8-0 ATS as home dogs off a loss and 6-0 ATS as home dogs with revenge. Hurricanes are rested, but they are just 1-5 ATS with time off during the regular season under Larry Coker and 0-8 ATS as road chalk of less than seven. A take!

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:

5 STAR BEST BETS
ARKANSAS
BRONCOS
RAVENS OVER

4 STAR BEST BETS
PURDUE
49ERS
RAIDERS UNDER

3 STAR BEST BETS
UTAH
JETS
EAGLES UNDER

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BETS SELECTIONS

5 STAR BEST BET
Arkansas over KENTUCKY by 16
Shane Boyd has given the Wildcats a huge lift. Combined with his
antithesis, the Pillsbury Throwboy (Jared Lorenzen), Kentucky’s
offense is starting to light it up. Lighting up against the sieves of
Ohio and Mississippi State is one thing. Doing it against Arkansas
is another. The Hogs are 26-5 ATS when they hit the 24-point mark
(Ky has allowed 39 ppg in its last 40 SEC games!) and they are still
steaming about last year (laid 10.5 at home lost the game by 12).
Le Hog's 5-0 ATS mark off three losses against a foe off a DD win
cements it.

5 STAR BEST BET
DENVER over New England by 14
Somebody is going to have to explain to us how the Patriots can
play as badly as a junior college team week after week and still win
in the NFL. Tonite, though, the Pats are going into some powerful
numbers. Denver is a super strong 38-7 SU and 30-14 ATS at home
off a loss vs an opponent off a win and New England has no ******
in its last 12 SU road losses and is 0-5 ATS in its last five battles
with AFC West opposition. Sooner or later the Pats are going to
have to play well to win. We don't see that happeing here tonight.

**meaiken** · 10-31-2003, 03:22 AM

N. Ill over Ball state by 3??????????????????

Not my MAC GOY.

N.Ill by 21

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