When to Middle a game in the NBA?

[albogator]

I used the search function to check out the historical threads to find an answer to my question but can't seem to see anything that will specifically answer it so I thought I'd start a new thread to see if anyone had any good links to articles or locations where I might find the answer to the following questions:

1. In the NBA, what is the amount of point spread required to bet a profitable middle on a side in a game? (I know it will vary some based on key numbers, etc. but if you could give a general answer that would be great or if you know a more specific answer based on various lines that would be great too).

2. Basically the same question but now what is the difference needed to middle a total on a NBA game?

(let's assume that all bets are done at the traditional -110 vig)

Thanks in advance for any help you can provide.

(For a specific example I had the Nuggets a couple of weeks back at like -5.5 vs the Spurs then later in the day Pop announced Duncan, Parker and Ginobili would all sit and the line sky rocket to -11. I took the Spurs at +11 and got lucky to hit the middle but I'm not sure if this was the correct play or not. There may be a different angle in this example as the original money bet on Denver became much more advantageous. In general, I think I've heard that a 2 point move in an NBA point spread would be enough to go for a middle but I'm not sure if that is correct. So what is everyone's opinion on this example and in general on the required point spread difference to go for a middle play?)

[Spark]

I play middles every night ... Love em ... you have to have a couple or more locals to make it profitable and fun ...

On sides I look for 2 points ... totals 3 ...

You hit 1 or 2 middles a week and it can become very profitable ...


Good Luck

[BettorsChat]

I say 3 to 5 points with several online accounts. By several I mean at the very least 4 and probably more like 5-7.

[albogator]

Thanks for the replies guys. I have a couple of questions for each of your specific answers.

For the Modfather -- When you say you play middles every night do you mean specifically for the NBA? (I guess I didn't realize that that many lines would see a difference in spread of 2+ points throughout the day) Or are you talking about using the second half lines on games to take middles? I have heard of a number of people talking about that. It certainly seems that those types of middles would come up nightly in the NBA.

For BettorsChat -- When you say you look for 3 to 5 points difference on sides to take a middle is that the entire range you use? For instance in my example above I believe I had a 5.5 point spread in that Nuggets/Spurs game. Would you have chosen to middle that or would you have just stuck with the original bet since it became so much more advantageous (and was outside your 3 to 5 point range)?

[mavskidd02]

Middling is tough, especially in the NBA, where points come in bunches. I never really try to middle, because most of the time you're selling back a better line. Like in your first example, you have 5.5 on the Nuggets, now the line is 11. You have a 5 point head start now. I think middling is more profitable in football, where you know the key numbers. Middling a 2.5 and a 3.5 is helpful in football because you know 3 is a key number.

In basketball there are no key numbers, which makes middling much harder. After all that, I think the best situation is 2.5 or 3 points. Any more is just selling back a good line, any less and you'll probably just end up paying the vig. I don't middle in basketball, so don't take my numbers too much into account. Really just wanted to say that at a difference of 5.5, i don't really think its worth it to middle.

[Spark]

Mavs ... you get a local that moves his lines as his plays are coming in ... trust me .. you can do very well very easily ... especially on totals ...


albogator ... I find middles every night on totals and sides in the NBA ... Mostly totals ... I never play second half lines ...

[BettorsChat]

Thanks for the replies guys. I have a couple of questions for each of your specific answers.

For the Modfather -- When you say you play middles every night do you mean specifically for the NBA? (I guess I didn't realize that that many lines would see a difference in spread of 2+ points throughout the day) Or are you talking about using the second half lines on games to take middles? I have heard of a number of people talking about that. It certainly seems that those types of middles would come up nightly in the NBA.

For BettorsChat -- When you say you look for 3 to 5 points difference on sides to take a middle is that the entire range you use? For instance in my example above I believe I had a 5.5 point spread in that Nuggets/Spurs game. Would you have chosen to middle that or would you have just stuck with the original bet since it became so much more advantageous (and was outside your 3 to 5 point range)?

I don't middle as I don't like it. I don't like parlays either.

The reason why I'm saying a minimum 3 to 5pt move is because I believe IMO that's giving you a bettor chance at hitting both plays especially the bigger the spread. On a 5.5 point spread that would be a good one to try.

[mavskidd02]

Mavs ... you get a local that moves his lines as his plays are coming in ... trust me .. you can do very well very easily ... especially on totals ...


albogator ... I find middles every night on totals and sides in the NBA ... Mostly totals ... I never play second half lines ...

I don't doubt that at all Spark, you probably could, its never something I've been good at, so I don't do it in basketball, and rarely in football. My main point was, with a line like 5.5 that moves to 11 due to injuries, its not always smart to sell back such a good line.

[GOLDENGREEK]

***

[frankb03]

I play middles every night ... Love em ... you have to have a couple or more locals to make it profitable and fun ...

On sides I look for 2 points ... totals 3 ...

You hit 1 or 2 middles a week and it can become very profitable ...

This is a very interesting concept. When I first read this thread my initial reaction was it's a waste of time and a money loser. However, statistically it works.

Since 1995 there's been over 16,000 NBA games. Almost 8.5% have finished within 2 points (not including 2) of the Posted Total.

A sports bettor will show a profit if they can middle 5% of the games they bet.

A $100 bettor:
5 middle games won +1000
95 games lost juice -950

Break-even is actually less than 5% because some games will end with a betting Win and Push.

As Spark suggested he tries to get a 3 point cushion with Totals. In the NBA a whopping 13% of games fall within 3 (not including 3) points of the posted total.

The numbers are even better with NBA sides. 13.6% of NBA games finish within 2 points of the posted line and 20.7% finish within 3 points.

[Spark]

Thanks Frank .. Your amazing with these numbers ...

all I can say is ... it is profitable if you stay with it ... Have been doing it for, not exaggerating, 20 years ...


Thanks again and I hope everything is well with you ... miss you posting

[albogator]

Thanks for the hard numbers Frank that certainly makes the argument much more concrete.

I guess the next question I would ask is what percentage of the time do you think the spread on a side in an NBA game would have a high and low range of 3+ points? Along the same lines about how often does a total have a range of 3+ points?

[frankb03]

Thanks for the hard numbers Frank that certainly makes the argument much more concrete.

I guess the next question I would ask is what percentage of the time do you think the spread on a side in an NBA game would have a high and low range of 3+ points? Along the same lines about how often does a total have a range of 3+ points?

Is your question, how often does the a game line or total move 3 or more points? If that's your question I don't have the answer. Spark could best answer it.

[albogator]

Yes that is my question:

How often does the a game line or total move 3 or more points?

[Spark]

Like I said I use locals .. 1 of my locals move lines every night between 5:15 and 6:30

Between the locals on an average night I will find a side I can middle ... I will find 3 totals I can middle every night ...

I know we need every member here to open up an acct with one of our sponsors ..which I have and I do use them at times ... that is what pays our bills around here ..but if you want to middle you MUST have locals ...



Hope this answers your question ..

Good Luck