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Ncaa Football 10/30 - 11/1
Showed a small profit last week going 4-3 in college football, hopefully we will cash in big this weekend! These are my plays....
Thursday, October 30, 2003
2 STAR: Boise State (-7) OVER BYU
The Broncos are an offensive machine and should put away the struggling BYU Cougars who have not won a home game this season. BYU is 0-3 straight up and against the spread at home this season, and they return home from a two game road trip which saw them upset UNLV this past Saturday. BYU is only 1-7 against the spread after an upset win as a road underdog since 1992, 16-31 against the spread in home games when playing with less than 6 days rest since 1992 and only 1-16 against the spread after a 2 game road trip since 1992. Boise State is a solid 11-3 against the spread when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons while BYU is only 1-5 against the spread when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better over the last 3 seasons. With only five days to get ready for the offensive attack of the Broncos, it could be another long night at home for the Cougars. Lay the points here!
Friday, October 31, 2003
PASS
Saturday, November 1, 2003
5 STAR: MICHIGAN STATE (+4) OVER Michigan
The Spartans have been red hot and I will gladly take them here as a home underdog against the hated rival the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan State has won and covered five straight games, yet they still find themselves as a home underdog to the Wolverines. Michigan has not had a lot of success when playing at State, the Wolverines are only 1-4 straight up and against the spread in their last five visits to play the Spartans, and they have struggled on the road this season, winning only one of their three road games. In fact, Michigan has been a consistent money burner as a road favorite, posting a 14-28 record against the spread as a road favorite since 1992 and they are only 5-17 against the spread in road games after two straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. The Spartans are a solid 17-7 against the spread as a home underdog since 1992 and they are 15-4 against the spread in home games in November since 1992. Michigan State is playing with a lot of confidence and I look for them to continue to roll, State is 12-3 against the spread after a road win against a conference rival since 1992, 16-3 against the spread after leading their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992 and 6-1 against the spread after an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Spartans will be looking to get revenge for the 49-3 ass kicking that they took at Ann Harbor last season and the team seeking revenge is 7-2 straight up in the last nine meetings in this series! Look for the home dog to bite here!
5 STAR: OVER 81.5 Colorado @ TEXAS TECH
Old faithful! Can they set the number high enough here? I'll continue to play this until we see an under. This should be another scoring fest between two teams with high scoring offenses and terrible defenses. Tech ranks #1 in passing offense and 113th in scoring defense at 36.8 points per game. Colorado is #12 in passing offense and #116 in scoring defense allowing 39.4 points per game. This will most likely be a 4 to 4.5 hour game with all the passing that we will see, so there will be plenty of scoring chances in this one. The real challenge here might be finding somewhere to place this bet! We should see 100 total points in this one!
3 STAR: AUBURN (-37) OVER Louisiana Monroe
This is a total mismatch. Auburn will be pissed off after having their ass handed to them last week by LSU and Louisiana Monroe will feel the brunt of their frustrations. Auburn is 5-1 against the spread after a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992 and they are 9-2 against the spread when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Auburn will have a huge game on the ground against Monroe's 94th ranked rushing defense and 106th ranked scoring defense. The Indians should not pose much of a threat on the offensive side of the ball either. Auburn's 13th ranked defense should shut down Monroe's 89th ranked scoring offense and make this into a very long day for the Indians who are also 110th in the nation in turnover ratio. Louisiana Monroe has lost 14 straight games to BCS schools all by 35 or more points including a 45 point loss at Mississippi this season. The Indians are 2-17 against the spread in road games when they are out gained by their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992 and 0-6 against the spread versus good defensive teams that are allowing 310 or less total yards per game since 1992. Lay the wood, this is a blowout waiting to happen!
2 STAR: Oklahoma State (+16) OVER OKLAHOMA
This might be a trap, but I have to take this generous amount of points here with the Cowboys. Only once in the last nine meetings has the Sooners beaten the Cowboys by more that 16 points and State has actually won four out of the last six meetings straight up. The Sooners have been on a roll, but so has State. After falling in their season opener at Nebraska, the Cowboys have won seven straight games and have not been held to less than 38 points in any of those games. The Sooners might have the best defense in the country, but I still think that the Cowboys will manage to put some points on the board here. The Sooners are only 7-45 against the spread as a favorite when they allow 20 or more points, 1-5 against the spread in home games after a road win over the last three seasons and 1-7 against the spread after two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons. Also, home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that have a winning percentage of 75% or better on the season and have five or more consecutive straight up wins are only 11-29 against the spread. Take the points here!
2 STAR: Central Florida (+21) OVER WEST VIRGINIA
Classic let down spot here. West Virginia is coming off of their huge win over Virginia Tech on national tv and are now more a three touchdown favorite out of conference against 3-4 Central Florida. The Knights should catch West Virginia in a flat spot here and keep this game within the big number. Central Florida is only 3-4 on the year, and only 1-5 against the spread with that one cover coming last week, BUT UCF has regained its balance with the return of Ryan Schneider to the lineup at quarterback after he missed two games with an injury. Against Central Michigan last week, the Knights produced 202 yards on the ground and 259 in the air. They have enough offense to keep this one close. With the Mountaineers coming off of the big win, and Boston College on tap next week, I don't see them being focused here, and they are also 0-2 against the spread as a favorite this season. Take the points!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 6-5 (+2.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 19-10 (+24.0 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 10-6 (+5.8 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 9-6 (+2.4 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 44-27 (+35.7 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $3570.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
Thursday, October 30, 2003
2 STAR: Boise State (-7) OVER BYU
The Broncos are an offensive machine and should put away the struggling BYU Cougars who have not won a home game this season. BYU is 0-3 straight up and against the spread at home this season, and they return home from a two game road trip which saw them upset UNLV this past Saturday. BYU is only 1-7 against the spread after an upset win as a road underdog since 1992, 16-31 against the spread in home games when playing with less than 6 days rest since 1992 and only 1-16 against the spread after a 2 game road trip since 1992. Boise State is a solid 11-3 against the spread when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons while BYU is only 1-5 against the spread when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better over the last 3 seasons. With only five days to get ready for the offensive attack of the Broncos, it could be another long night at home for the Cougars. Lay the points here!
Friday, October 31, 2003
PASS
Saturday, November 1, 2003
5 STAR: MICHIGAN STATE (+4) OVER Michigan
The Spartans have been red hot and I will gladly take them here as a home underdog against the hated rival the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan State has won and covered five straight games, yet they still find themselves as a home underdog to the Wolverines. Michigan has not had a lot of success when playing at State, the Wolverines are only 1-4 straight up and against the spread in their last five visits to play the Spartans, and they have struggled on the road this season, winning only one of their three road games. In fact, Michigan has been a consistent money burner as a road favorite, posting a 14-28 record against the spread as a road favorite since 1992 and they are only 5-17 against the spread in road games after two straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. The Spartans are a solid 17-7 against the spread as a home underdog since 1992 and they are 15-4 against the spread in home games in November since 1992. Michigan State is playing with a lot of confidence and I look for them to continue to roll, State is 12-3 against the spread after a road win against a conference rival since 1992, 16-3 against the spread after leading their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992 and 6-1 against the spread after an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Spartans will be looking to get revenge for the 49-3 ass kicking that they took at Ann Harbor last season and the team seeking revenge is 7-2 straight up in the last nine meetings in this series! Look for the home dog to bite here!
5 STAR: OVER 81.5 Colorado @ TEXAS TECH
Old faithful! Can they set the number high enough here? I'll continue to play this until we see an under. This should be another scoring fest between two teams with high scoring offenses and terrible defenses. Tech ranks #1 in passing offense and 113th in scoring defense at 36.8 points per game. Colorado is #12 in passing offense and #116 in scoring defense allowing 39.4 points per game. This will most likely be a 4 to 4.5 hour game with all the passing that we will see, so there will be plenty of scoring chances in this one. The real challenge here might be finding somewhere to place this bet! We should see 100 total points in this one!
3 STAR: AUBURN (-37) OVER Louisiana Monroe
This is a total mismatch. Auburn will be pissed off after having their ass handed to them last week by LSU and Louisiana Monroe will feel the brunt of their frustrations. Auburn is 5-1 against the spread after a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992 and they are 9-2 against the spread when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Auburn will have a huge game on the ground against Monroe's 94th ranked rushing defense and 106th ranked scoring defense. The Indians should not pose much of a threat on the offensive side of the ball either. Auburn's 13th ranked defense should shut down Monroe's 89th ranked scoring offense and make this into a very long day for the Indians who are also 110th in the nation in turnover ratio. Louisiana Monroe has lost 14 straight games to BCS schools all by 35 or more points including a 45 point loss at Mississippi this season. The Indians are 2-17 against the spread in road games when they are out gained by their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992 and 0-6 against the spread versus good defensive teams that are allowing 310 or less total yards per game since 1992. Lay the wood, this is a blowout waiting to happen!
2 STAR: Oklahoma State (+16) OVER OKLAHOMA
This might be a trap, but I have to take this generous amount of points here with the Cowboys. Only once in the last nine meetings has the Sooners beaten the Cowboys by more that 16 points and State has actually won four out of the last six meetings straight up. The Sooners have been on a roll, but so has State. After falling in their season opener at Nebraska, the Cowboys have won seven straight games and have not been held to less than 38 points in any of those games. The Sooners might have the best defense in the country, but I still think that the Cowboys will manage to put some points on the board here. The Sooners are only 7-45 against the spread as a favorite when they allow 20 or more points, 1-5 against the spread in home games after a road win over the last three seasons and 1-7 against the spread after two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons. Also, home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that have a winning percentage of 75% or better on the season and have five or more consecutive straight up wins are only 11-29 against the spread. Take the points here!
2 STAR: Central Florida (+21) OVER WEST VIRGINIA
Classic let down spot here. West Virginia is coming off of their huge win over Virginia Tech on national tv and are now more a three touchdown favorite out of conference against 3-4 Central Florida. The Knights should catch West Virginia in a flat spot here and keep this game within the big number. Central Florida is only 3-4 on the year, and only 1-5 against the spread with that one cover coming last week, BUT UCF has regained its balance with the return of Ryan Schneider to the lineup at quarterback after he missed two games with an injury. Against Central Michigan last week, the Knights produced 202 yards on the ground and 259 in the air. They have enough offense to keep this one close. With the Mountaineers coming off of the big win, and Boston College on tap next week, I don't see them being focused here, and they are also 0-2 against the spread as a favorite this season. Take the points!
2003 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 6-5 (+2.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 19-10 (+24.0 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 10-6 (+5.8 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 9-6 (+2.4 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 44-27 (+35.7 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $3570.00
Good luck,
John
EZWINNERS.com
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